Micro 759: Tarot uPick III - Game Over!

[nancy]

Like his naked vote on Varsoon there bailing on the counterwagon looks pretty clearing especially since I doubt Dunker thinks he has a hope of winning this game without Varsoon but it's not a "they're never ever wolves" type thing so I think the hope of lynching him would be a realistic one.

[drealmerz7]

can we just speedlynch acidphoenix slot? :þ

[nancy]

Only if we speedlynch you first.

[drealmerz7]

sorude

[drealmerz7]

I thought either acidphoenix OR NK15 had to be scum

at first I was leaning NK15

now I lean acid

[nancy]

So tell me how those wagons at EoD with Jabarkus voting his townread in NK15's counterwagon make sense to you if NK15 is town here? Because that's something I'm struggling to understand except as a blunder.

[drealmerz7]

I wouldn't ever see it as a blunder just an attempt to skew how things look / sell the wifom

*shrug*

not like I'm going NO WAY NK15 is scum, not in the slightest, I'd even vote there, but I prefer acid at this point / lean more there

of course this is going on the figuring of there only being 2 scum

[nancy]

Wrt to drealmer it's a slot that I /want/ to clear and feel that his posting at EoD makes me feel like he's unaligned with Varsoon but when I really grok that it's not something I think I have a lot of confidence in and ends up just being more of a gut thing that I want to be true rather than something I would put a lot of stock in at the end of the day in terms of solid reasoning behind it. Probably only thing really stopping me from just caving into that and slotting him as not wolves with Varsoon here is a couple concerns I have about him from day 1 in the scumread on me which I still find pretty difficult to understand and which I don't think really follows from his language in the thread at the time and just his overall lack of doing anything at all to push the game anywhere or get reads for himself so far. He's at the back end of my lynchpool and not something I think has a huge chance of flipping mafia but he's definitely not a slot I'd want alive in endgame as long as he keeps playing like a policy lynch.

[Yetichain]

I'm also interested in what makes you lean the other way on NK15/acid, dreal.

could you talk more specifically about how different you've been this game as compared to previous ones?

Oh this. I could but I don't think it's particularly relevant because it's more down to me feeling fairly awful at the moment. I can elaborate if you think it will help you sort me but I'll leave it for now.


Can other players please voice reads on dreal and Porkens? My preferred lynch is in there right now but I need to think more on it.


-Key

[drealmerz7]

I think my lynch preference order is

acid
nsg
dunker
NK15

but would be pretty sure we'd have scum dead by eliminating the 1st two there and feel like game is in the bag-ish

[nancy]

I wouldn't ever see it as a blunder just an attempt to skew how things look / sell the wifom

Why wouldn't you see it as a blunder? He has a townread on NK15, he obviously can't vote there since he's been hard defending the slot, he has a townread on northsidegal, if he joins either major wagon he's voting a townread, doesn't make sense as town there to vote nsg and he wasn't pushing alternatives, wasn't doing much at all to convince anyone that Yetichain was mafia, didn't look like he was desperately voting just anyone in order to prevent a no lynch. Unless he's mafia with NK15 that play is a blunder and is never optimal, if he's mafia with NK15 then it's a blunder that he let the gamestate get to that point but shy off defending NK15 more and subtly encouraging people to hop onto northsidegal he has no choice but to vote northsidegal there in order to save his bud.

[drealmerz7]

I don't see Porkens hammering his scumbud there at all

[drealmerz7]

I wouldn't ever see it as a blunder just an attempt to skew how things look / sell the wifom

Why wouldn't you see it as a blunder? He has a townread on NK15, he obviously can't vote there since he's been hard defending the slot, he has a townread on northsidegal, if he joins either major wagon he's voting a townread, doesn't make sense as town there to vote nsg and he wasn't pushing alternatives, wasn't doing much at all to convince anyone that Yetichain was mafia, didn't look like he was desperately voting just anyone in order to prevent a no lynch. Unless he's mafia with NK15 that play is a blunder and is never optimal, if he's mafia with NK15 then it's a blunder that he let the gamestate get to that point but shy off defending NK15 more and subtly encouraging people to hop onto northsidegal he has no choice but to vote northsidegal there in order to save his bud.

mmm I guess I am not too clear on the timing of it all, was thinking he had more awareness of his likely lynch at that point

[nancy]

I strongly townread Porkens independently of associatives and think associatives also point to him being unaligned with Varsoon.

[drealmerz7]

that too

[drealmerz7]

I SR LUV's replace out really hard btw

[fferyllt]

garaputo replaces acidphoenix. Please welcome him!

[drealmerz7]

welcome, scum!

[garaputo]

welcome, scum!

No you've got this all wrong. You are supposed to kill the scum, not welcome them.

Luckily you can welcome me!

UNVOTE: While I reread for a bit.

What sort of timecrunch before deadline do we have?

[drealmerz7]

lots of time

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2-3

Not Voting

(8): drealmerz7, Dunkerdoodles, Not Known 15, garaputo, nancy, Yetichain, northsidegal, Porkens, Woman of Crystals

With 8 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline: January 3, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2018-01-02 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[nancy]

I strongly scumread Yetichain and think the slot has a very high chance of flipping mafia here. I was reading them as unaligned with Varsoon for a lot of yesterday just because they were both hard pushing each other but I think that was very premature and simplistic of me and when I actually go back and dig into those interactions I don't think there's anything clearing about it at all; think the way that Varsoon talks to Yeti feels like he's just going through the motions and doesn't actually care about Yeti's opinion, there's a lot of jabbing and parrying there that I think makes more sense as a partnered interaction than them being unaligned and think if you compare the way Varsoon treated northsidegal and Yetichain they're very very different. Don't think the EoD vote on Varsoon is clearing since they were pretty much forced to vote him there or look very badly for it given that they they had stated him as their 2nd strongest scumread and I messaged them privately and asked them to vote him.

Think outside of her push on Varsoon Yetichain's done next to no scumhunting and what little there is feels very fake; I'm looking at 528 and not seeing anything except posturing there which is something I'm strongly scumreading and the "north could be mafia but I have to find out what her read of me is before I decide" is something that has a bunch of scum motivation and doesn't make sense as a thought process that Yeti is actually having if she's town here. Also think there's a mismatch in how much Yeti has been talking about how people are town and how people are scum with 958/960 being a good example of this, think the way they get a very accurate, borderline TMI read on Porkens in 960 is something that doesn't quite add up to me coming from someone who's been struggling to get an understanding of the game / their reads at that point because it displays a very nuanced appreciation of Porken's content up to that point and think it's just really unlikely for them to arrive at that if they're genuinely muddled but it makes a ton of sense if they're mafia and know that Porkens is town.

I'm also in a neighborhood with them and what made me go back to this read and reconsider it after starting to back off my scumread was some very TMI NKA they did in the hood which basically looked like them telling me exactly why they tried to nightkill Dunkerdoodles. Not going to elaborate on that any further.

Very confident on this slot being mafia.

Vote: Yetichain

[nancy]

Can other players please voice reads on dreal and Porkens? My preferred lynch is in there right now but I need to think more on it.

Also looking at this and not seeing where this scumread is coming from given their prior townread on Porkens.

[nancy]

958/960

Reference tags for 1006 above, forgot to put them in.

[nancy]

Welcome, garaputo.