Mini Normal 1976 - The Firsts - Night 2[End Jan 8]

[acryon]

The other really weird thing I don’t get is that no one will put their name to a lynch of a potential fake PR claim because they don’t want to lynch a Pr but when DH says that he will kill a PR claim tonight very few people care enough to try and stop him. Again I assume people want their cake and to eat it because they will let DH be brave and take the risk of shooting a PR so they have an easy person to blame in the aftermath.

Just want to echo this. Very good point.

If you believe Mulch is telling the truth, then you should be voting to lynch DH because he is going to kill Mulch if the town doesn't today.

[Hawk]

-Hawk, I guess the one thing we can say about Derpy is if he is fronting an aggressive tactic and doesn’t intend to shoot the cop after all, he is doing exactly what you are telling me to do and standing by his convictions. I’m probably picking Derpy as more towny than Mulch but I guess I hadn’t really figured that with the even night claim bit it’s going to be so easy for Mulch to say oh yeah I read that guy who already died as he has loads of time to think about which player to fake read

-Sky, I went back to review the part of your post that you highlighted in red - given than Psyko eventually did lay a lynch on TIAM I think it’s fair to say he did have a scum read so I’m not sure I entirely agree with what you are saying here. Therefore moving on to the BuJ bit, I can see why BuJ said what he did in post 73 but given that’s its day 1 I think BuJ is a bit naive to think someone caught scum on page 1

Well sticking to your conviction is one thing. Tunneling is another.

Saying I think this person is scum for reason. Then voting someone else or NO lynch is bad imo.

I think this person is scum but I don't know if I want to lynch him today. Vote this other person for reasons. Is good/ok imo.

This person is scum, reasons, this kill this and only this. maybe this... maybe this other... but nothing else. Is tunneled.

I just want more depth of a read or maybe some townreads from Derpy. Like I said getting townvibes but want more.

I've caught scum on d1 p1 before. It was great, they were new tho. lol.

Pedit: Not gonna lie that felt pretty town from Profil... I would think unless Mulch really is scum and Profil is his partner there is no reason why scum wouldn't just lay back and ignore that situation as much as possible.

I personally feel like not lynching mulch because I believe DH claim and if we lynch Mulch DH might be shooting a little less blind. I'm more willing to accidentally lose a cop here from a shot then to lynch a cop and get someone else shot along with a mafia nk.

PPedit: For the record. I don't believe Mulch, if DH wasn't shooting Mulch for sure I would be pretty inclined to lynch the crappy cop claim with no pressure on him. I mean it just feels awkward. If mulch wanted the claim to stop the shot from DH I think as town he would have waited till much closer to a lynch to claim rather than be like Derpy I'm a fucking cop don't shoot me with 7 days left and no one at l2

[acryon]

I personally feel like not lynching mulch because I believe DH claim and if we lynch Mulch DH might be shooting a little less blind. I'm more willing to accidentally lose a cop here from a shot then to lynch a cop and get someone else shot along with a mafia nk.

This is a pretty good point, but I still think I would rather us lynch Mulch and then have DH just not use his shot yet (or not at all). Because if we are wrong about Mulch, then we are much better off in the situation where we lynch Mulch and DH holds his shot.

One situation is an educated kill (lynching Mulch), the other is an educated kill (shooting Mulch) plus an uneducated one (lynching someone else).

[profii]

we are on day 1 - go and pick 10 random games and tell me how many times the town lynched a scum on day 1 with essentially no real data other than people claiming they’re psychic - I bet it’s less than half

With Mulch, it’s 50/50 he’s either lying or he’s not. Given the convenience of the even night bit, I think the risk is no longer 50/50 and it’s something we should consider - probably better odds than picking any other essentially random player

[profii]

Ebwop - that was mainly aimed at TIAM

[TwoInAMillion]

You may have better odds with lynching Mulch, but the risk of being wrong is considerably higher.

[acryon]

You may have better odds with lynching Mulch, but the risk of being wrong is considerably higher.

Ok but DH has already stated they will explicitly shoot him tonight, so he's dying either way.

[TwoInAMillion]

You may have better odds with lynching Mulch, but the risk of being wrong is considerably higher.

Ok but DH has already stated they will explicitly shoot him tonight, so he's dying either way.

He could change his mind. We should decide who we want to lynch seperately from what DH is going to do.

[Hawk]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

[TwoInAMillion]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

[acryon]

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

If DH kills Mulch (like he said he would), what does that tell us about his alignment? If Mulch turns out to be town or scum, it doesn't mean DH is town or scum; it just means he was wrong or right.

Being wrong is not AI.

[TwoInAMillion]

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

If DH kills Mulch (like he said he would), what does that tell us about his alignment? If Mulch turns out to be town or scum, it doesn't mean DH is town or scum; it just means he was wrong or right.

Being wrong is not AI.

Um...on average scum will be "wrong" at a higher rate than town, because scum want town to die.

[acryon]

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

If DH kills Mulch (like he said he would), what does that tell us about his alignment? If Mulch turns out to be town or scum, it doesn't mean DH is town or scum; it just means he was wrong or right.

Being wrong is not AI.

Um...on average scum will be "wrong" at a higher rate than town, because scum want town to die.

Statistically sure, but considering we likely have more people currently wanting Mulch dead than there are scum, it takes quite a bit into the game before that's particularly relevant.

[TwoInAMillion]

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

If DH kills Mulch (like he said he would), what does that tell us about his alignment? If Mulch turns out to be town or scum, it doesn't mean DH is town or scum; it just means he was wrong or right.

Being wrong is not AI.

Um...on average scum will be "wrong" at a higher rate than town, because scum want town to die.

Statistically sure, but considering we likely have more people currently wanting Mulch dead than there are scum, it takes quite a bit into the game before that's particularly relevant.

So, taking Mulch out of the equation, if DH is wrong too many times, there comes a point where we need to lynch him because a) he's a sk or b) he's a detriment to the town.

[profii]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

The point is, if you don’t believe mulch’s claim and you don’t want to change DHs mind, do DH a favour and kill mulch so DH can make better use of his PR!

[Mulch]

VOTE: dh

This game is fucked so I’m symbolically voting the most pro-scum player in this game

(And no, I don’t think derpy is scum)

[Mulch]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

Lynch this after I’m dead

“Let’s shoot the cop to determine if derpy is serial killer”

[TwoInAMillion]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

Lynch this after I’m dead

“Let’s shoot the cop to determine if derpy is serial killer”

That's not at all what I said.

[acryon]

So, taking Mulch out of the equation, if DH is wrong too many times, there comes a point where we need to lynch him because a) he's a sk or b) he's a detriment to the town.

Eh, I don't even think being wrong too much is "detrimental to town" in the sense that someone would be deserving of a lynch for it. Because in every single mis-lynch case, it takes townies being wrong to make it happen. Townies being wrong is more or less a necessary evil of the game, doesn't mean we should go around killing every townie that's wrong because "being wrong is bad for the town." This is how you end up leaving scum alive forever just because they bussed a teammate.

Town/scum is most often identified by their process, not by their voting.

[Mulch]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

Lynch this after I’m dead

“Let’s shoot the cop to determine if derpy is serial killer”

That's not at all what I said.

“Let’s let derpy decide on his own”

—— derpy says he’s shooting the cop

“To determine if he’s the serial killer”

[Mulch]

I’m sort of done with this game

Whichever townies are encouraging derpy to shoot a non counterclaims cop claim day 1 is horrible

And there’s probably 1-3 scum mixed into that as well

[TwoInAMillion]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

Lynch this after I’m dead

“Let’s shoot the cop to determine if derpy is serial killer”

That's not at all what I said.

“Let’s let derpy decide on his own”

—— derpy says he’s shooting the cop

“To determine if he’s the serial killer”

The only reason you don't want DH to decide on his own is because you don't want to be the first scum death.

[Mulch]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

Lynch this after I’m dead

“Let’s shoot the cop to determine if derpy is serial killer”

That's not at all what I said.

“Let’s let derpy decide on his own”

—— derpy says he’s shooting the cop

“To determine if he’s the serial killer”

The only reason you don't want DH to decide on his own is because you don't want to be the first scum death.

How can I be a scum death if I am not scum

[Mulch]

The point is, once derpy shoots me, lynch million and others who encouraged the shot

Oh and make derpy apologize

That’s all I ask

[TwoInAMillion]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

Lynch this after I’m dead

“Let’s shoot the cop to determine if derpy is serial killer”

That's not at all what I said.

“Let’s let derpy decide on his own”

—— derpy says he’s shooting the cop

“To determine if he’s the serial killer”

The only reason you don't want DH to decide on his own is because you don't want to be the first scum death.

How can I be a scum death if I am not scum

You're not helping your cause much.