Mini Normal 1976 - The Firsts - Night 2[End Jan 8]

[acryon]

I already explained my vote. I see Mulch and prolif as a scumteam.

I’ve said a couple of times I am none the wiser as to why you’ve linked us. Would you mind elaborating a bit on that please

What is your response to the post I just made on Mulch?

[Mulch]

Going to be going on V/LA here later today for most of the rest of the game day, so wanted to make my final case for Mulch.

(First, I 100% believe the claim of DH. He claimed Vig and has consistently said he would shoot Mulch tonight. It would be very very hard for him to avoid major suspicion if there weren’t 2 kills tonight, so I’m very much inclined to believe the claim is legit.)

That being said, these are the scenarios with Mulch:

Mulch is Town

A. We lynch town!Mulch. Not the end of the world since he was never going to live long enough to provide town value anyway.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot town!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Mulch is Scum

A. We lynch scum!Mulch. Obviously a great scenario, not much else to say here.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot scum!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Unless you think we have a very good chance of lynching scum today outside of Mulch (statistically we don't), whether Mulch is town or scum,

our best scenario involves lynching him over the alternative

.

This is incorrect mathematically. If I were to be killed by scum, we save a towny player, and make it so we can actually lynch a scummy player instead of mislynching me

[Mulch]

Lynches are the towns best asset

[Mulch]

If there’s anything pressing I need to respond to quote it


Otherwise not spending more effort on this derpy-fucked-game

[acryon]

Going to be going on V/LA here later today for most of the rest of the game day, so wanted to make my final case for Mulch.

(First, I 100% believe the claim of DH. He claimed Vig and has consistently said he would shoot Mulch tonight. It would be very very hard for him to avoid major suspicion if there weren’t 2 kills tonight, so I’m very much inclined to believe the claim is legit.)

That being said, these are the scenarios with Mulch:

Mulch is Town

A. We lynch town!Mulch. Not the end of the world since he was never going to live long enough to provide town value anyway.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot town!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Mulch is Scum

A. We lynch scum!Mulch. Obviously a great scenario, not much else to say here.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot scum!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Unless you think we have a very good chance of lynching scum today outside of Mulch (statistically we don't), whether Mulch is town or scum,

our best scenario involves lynching him over the alternative

.

This is incorrect mathematically. If I were to be killed by scum, we save a towny player, and make it so we can actually lynch a scummy player instead of mislynching me

You will not be killed by scum unless we think Derpy is A) lying about his PR or B) lying about shooting you, neither of which make any sense for him to do as either alignment.

[acryon]

And scum would never kill town!you tonight anyways. No reason to when they could leave you another day to cause more confusion.

[Hawk]

Fairly certain DH said he wouldn't shoot mulch if we lynch town today cause that would be bad...

Also I can see Bujaber being scum, I really didn't like his most recent posts. Psycho needs to get back into this game and post so I can get a better read there too.

VOTE: BuJaber
fighting a sinus infection/sinus headache so I probably won't be very active today

[profii]

Acryon- I think at this point we are rolling the dice over the claims a bit
DH has softened his stance over shooting Mulch which is good and definitely a factor to consider

I think Derpy is a PR but I think maybe there is more to him than a 1 shot vig.
I’m really not sure about Mulch, I’m sort of in benefit of the doubt mode and I think leaving them both alive achieves 2 things - let’s see who was making idle threats - let’s force some of the coasters to get involved so we can pick a alternative lynch target perhaps

I’m inclined to stay away from the 2 of them as it stands, an alternative lynch (or I suppose no lynch) would potentially leave 1 PR in the game as mafia can’t kill both is something to think about if you believe them both

[Apple Jack]

Fairly certain DH said he wouldn't shoot

Correct.

[Jodaxq]

Jodax why are you leaning Psycho more than Bujaber??

I just think there are more worlds where Psyko flips scum than BuJaber. As I pointed out, I feel like BuJaber's early posting in this game was townie with a natural progression that I understood. He's become more erratic, but I feel like Sky's push on him made it seem more scummy than it felt to me when I read through his ISO. Psyko, on the other hand, has continued to only really defend himself for stuff that happened very early on and make very manufactured looking reads lists

[Jodaxq]

Acryon is making a lot of sense on Mulch's lynch. Similar to BuJaber I wouldn't be opposed to a Mulch lynch, but I still prefer Psyko until he gives me a strong reason to think otherwise.

[Apple Jack]

I’m definitely down for a mulch lynch if I can’t shoot him.

I’ve really got to get back to painting so ttfn

[acryon]

Fairly certain DH said he wouldn't shoot mulch if we lynch town today cause that would be bad...

Was this really your stance Derpy? How does it make sense to not shoot just because we got a townie? How does us lynching a townie make Mulch any more or less scum in your eyes?

The thing is, leaving Mulch alive literally never does anything to help us. If he is town, he just eats a NK anyway before he can do anything useful, and if he's scum, he creates a nightmare for town for the rest of the game.

[Mulch]

Acryon is making a lot of sense on Mulch's lynch. Similar to BuJaber I wouldn't be opposed to a Mulch lynch, but I still prefer Psyko until he gives me a strong reason to think otherwise.

In what ways it it making sense, it's mathmatically incorrect so this smells like bullshit to me

[acryon]

Acryon is making a lot of sense on Mulch's lynch. Similar to BuJaber I wouldn't be opposed to a Mulch lynch, but I still prefer Psyko until he gives me a strong reason to think otherwise.

In what ways it it making sense, it's mathmatically incorrect so this smells like bullshit to me

There isn't math in those scenarios, so they cannot be "mathematically" correct or incorrect. They are potentially fundamentally flawed if DH indeed isn't promising to shoot you.

But even if that's the case, this is still true:
"Leaving Mulch alive literally never does anything to help us. If he is town, he just eats a NK anyway before he can do anything useful, and if he's scum, he creates a nightmare for town for the rest of the game."

Lynching you is

so

low-risk for the chance at scum and/or eliminating future nightmare scenario for town.

[TwoInAMillion]

If the majority is hellbent on picking one of us then I intend to vote for psyko and use his flip as the inverse alignment of 2inam. But I'd rather we lynch 2inam and see how he flips.

Also if sky is right and 2inam flips town then maybe DH doesn't shoot as promised.

Saving his bullet and forcing scum to make a choice if they want to keep him alive. They might also pick mulch for the kill.
[/quote]

This is very poor logic. You should only strategically lynch town in very rare circumstances, and this isn't one of them. There are plenty of actually scummy people to consider lynching.

VOTE: BuJaber

[Apple Jack]

Was this really your stance Derpy? How does it make sense to not shoot just because we got a townie? How does us lynching a townie make Mulch any more or less scum in your eyes?

I mean if we are talking about smart play.

1. Vig should not ever shoot n1.
2. If we mislynch vig should holster
3. The exception is if the consensus agrees to shoot and that target is decided.

Now some say I don’t play smart which I guess I can see why people think that because I always shoot n1.

If people don’t want me to shoot, I won’t shoot. If they do, I will.

I’m fairly certain mulch is scum and want him gone. If he is town he’s not helping town. He’s and his predecessor have also pissed me off but I don’t want rage to fuck up the game anymore than it already has.

[profii]

I know someone went over this earlier but I just want to remind myself by writing it down.

Worst case scenario...
11 players
We mislynch and scum get a NK
That probably makes it...
3v6
Let’s say the flips aren’t that useful and we mis lynch again could become 3v4

That then becomes LyLo, right? So if Mulch’s reads are players that got killed or just town then he really isn’t much use.
This also assume DH does as he says and no shot after town lynch, which could change tomorrow.


So even if you believe the Mulch claim, his PR isn’t that great and perhaps wouldn’t be a huge loss. It also enables our vig to think freely if you believe that claim.


But that is very much everything going wrong... easy to suggest with no flips at all so far

[acryon]

Was this really your stance Derpy? How does it make sense to not shoot just because we got a townie? How does us lynching a townie make Mulch any more or less scum in your eyes?

I mean if we are talking about smart play.

1. Vig should not ever shoot n1.
2. If we mislynch vig should holster
3. The exception is if the consensus agrees to shoot and that target is decided.

Now some say I don’t play smart which I guess I can see why people think that because I always shoot n1.

If people don’t want me to shoot, I won’t shoot. If they do, I will.

I’m fairly certain mulch is scum and want him gone. If he is town he’s not helping town. He’s and his predecessor have also pissed me off but I don’t want rage to fuck up the game anymore than it already has.

This feels like an odd about-face from you.

Separately, can someone explain to me how town wins this game if we get into a LyLo situation including Mulch?

If the determination is "if he's town, scum will kill him", at what point is the town no longer comfortable with him as truly town?

This feels like a disaster waiting to happen.

[profii]

If we don’t lynch Derpy or Mulch, mafia have to make a choice. If we have some kind of protection role, they have to decide if which PR is telling the truth and if they think both which is most at risk/most useful.

If Mulch is telling the truth and has some reads by the time we get to LyLo, then town will probably have trouble trusting said reads.


I’m in a weird place where I think Mulch is not lying but has no value to town regardless

[Mulch]

If I’m killed by scum, we gain a mislynch.

That means they COULD be killing someone towny but they had to waste it on me

If they don’t kill me, I give you a cop result

[acryon]

If we don’t lynch Derpy or Mulch, mafia have to make a choice. If we have some kind of protection role, they have to decide if which PR is telling the truth and if they think both which is most at risk/most useful.

Although this is only true if they are both telling the truth. If either is lying, there is no choice to make, and if we have a protection role, they are forced to guess which one is telling the truth and hope they protect the right one.

If Mulch is telling the truth and has some reads by the time we get to LyLo, then town will probably have trouble trusting said reads.

Exactly. If we have a PR that we can't trust anyway, then what's the point of them for the future of the town?

[TwoInAMillion]

@Mulch: If you were a different player that was town in this game, would you assume you are town and why? From an objective standpoint, do you think your play so far has helped town?

[Mulch]

@Mulch: If you were a different player that was town in this game, would you assume you are town and why? From an objective standpoint, do you think your play so far has helped town?

Intresting question.

1) Would I assume I was town? no. Would I lynch or shoot a cop claim? no

2) Has helped town? My play, no. But can you really blame me with Derpy for not being interested in this game?

[acryon]

@Mulch: If you were a different player that was town in this game, would you assume you are town and why? From an objective standpoint, do you think your play so far has helped town?

Intresting question.

1) Would I assume I was town? no. Would I lynch or shoot a cop claim? no

So a claimed cop is essentially an innocent child to you? You can keep living as scum and pretending to do checks on people that are dying for the rest of the game.