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Are you in a lot of games where policy lynches are going on? Was there a reason you thought there might be one in this game? I can remember the last time I was in a game with a policy lynch.
Would Not_Mafia lolhammer someone he wasn't scum-reading?
UNVOTE:
What does this line of enquiry have to do with scum hunting? Are you just trying to look busy?
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Post #134 (isolation #1) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:21 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
First complete readthrough: A50 is town. MD is 70% town. Bins is 70% scum. Mutant could well be SK. Lots of boring setup talk, to which I will now add my two cent's worth:
If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.
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Post #221 (isolation #10) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:47 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
I've looked at the ISOs of MD, NM, Raya, and A50 just now, but I still need to go back and do a proper readthrough. Will answer any questions / comments addressed to me then.
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Post #344 (isolation #11) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:20 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
Looks like exciting stuff is happening. Have read the current page but let me go back and see how we got to here. I said before I'd lynch the sk if i knew who is was, so it's looking like goodbye bins.
Chip Butty needs to go. Talk about lost scum in this game
i'll rethink the mutant and raya reads, it was a lot of pages to process all at once there
but yeah, real hardening scum-read on Chip, he had no clue how he was supposed to react to the cop situation among other things
Uh, yeah, because I had just quickscanned the last couple of pages on my phone, and had other things on my mind? I had the aha! moment later and would have loved to join in the fun, but didn't get around to it. Ftr it's been a busy few days. Even now i have to go through and make sure if bins is hammered or not...
In post 457, Raya36 wrote:Well, this is really confusing but I know for sure we should lynch bins. I don't think were going to get anywhere as is so intent to hammer bins.
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Post #494 (isolation #26) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:33 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
Okay, now that Xmas/NY is out of the way, I should have time to actually play the game. I just ISO-ed Sauce, and I'm not sure what to think yet. He's definitely been wrong on a lot of stuff, or is that "wrong"? One thing is that he seems to be hung up on scum.Maxous, whom I see has just naked voted me, so a Maxous ISO is on the cards very soon. I'm hoping we get a lot of info from all the deaths, but let's see. It's 5-2-1 by my count, so let's take our time over this.
In post 176, Chip Butty wrote:My vote on havingfitz is probably a bit stale. Will reread and review...
In post 172, Chip Butty wrote:I should be able to put more effort into the game now...
In post 171, Chip Butty wrote:Back on deck, and rereading in a few hours, with any luck.
In post 134, Chip Butty wrote:First complete readthrough: A50 is town. MD is 70% town. Bins is 70% scum. Mutant could well be SK. Lots of boring setup talk, to which I will now add my two cent's worth:
If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.
More reads soonish, I hope.
possible scum here
promising more reads but struggling to give them
i've been in this kind of situation before as scum where you over-promise and struggle to back it up
I'm not sure why HF reacted so strongly to this. It was my intro/RVS vote, and I didn't push it hard. Admittedly, my vote stayed on him a long while, but that was because I wasn't in the game much.
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Post #530 (isolation #35) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:24 am
Postby Chip Butty »
In post 518, Almost50 wrote:More theory talk: if we nail the SK the Vig will definitely be shut down, so only one death at night.
We are 5-2-1 now. Assuming we lynch the SK = 5-2 and tomorrow we are 4-2 (traditional MyLo).
If we lynch Mafia today though it would be 5-1-1 and it's anyone guess how many town deaths at night. Scum could cross kill, or could hit town. the Vig may shoot scum, Town or not at all. This is confusing but it has the benefit of the Vig having a chance to do something at night, plus the chance of scum cross killing each other.
Everyone's opinion/feedback is welcome.
This is the way to look at this:
It's 5-2-1. 3 scenarios. 1. We lynch town 2. We lynch SK. 3.We lynch mafia.
1. 4-2-1. Worst case scenario: SK, mafia, and vig hit separate town targets = 1-2-1 and we lose. Even if the vig doesn't shoot, it's 2-2-1 (so the game would continue, I guess?). So if we lynch town, vig should holster.
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Post #538 (isolation #38) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:36 am
Postby Chip Butty »
I think MD was directing the vig to Raya. If SK shot Lalendra, it might be 1. She fakecrumbed earlier or 2. Alternative kills would have pointed back at the SK. I'm leaning toward the latter, as I've never known Lalendra to crumb. Which means let's look at who was anti-Lalendra.
This is also a Town loss as both scum sides would be able to kill. We would need all the luck in the world for us to come up winners in this situation.
Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.
you can't be serious.
I agree with Sauce here. It was a weak-ass attempt and he didn't really try to be convincing. Anyway, pointless, since he claimed a true guilty. Mafia would never let him live after that , with no doc.
Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.
@Chip: I know Math was obvious Cop. I'm saying Mafia may have been high on his read list to not fear being checked last night and thus were hoping he would come back with a guilty on the SK, or a clear on Townie they would hen dash out from their possible SK list.
In post 531, Chip Butty wrote:A50, you're looking at this wrong. No way does mafia shoot anybody else but MD last night. It was screamingly obvious he was the real cop.
In post 533, Chip Butty wrote:What is interesting is that the SK didn't shoot him. I think they must have assumed mafia would.
So your saying the mafia shot him? But who would have shot Raya the Vig. I don't see why the SK would have shot Dino just because odds are they took Investigation protection. Just a hunch but if the person has great town cred why not look at them?
Im waiting for NM to chime in now
Not feeling the SK shooting the cop though.
Just to be clear, I'm saying it is almost certain mafia shot MD...
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Post #546 (isolation #43) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:56 am
Postby Chip Butty »
In post 545, Almost50 wrote:Between Chip and mutant I think I'm more suspicious of Chip still. It has been the case on D1 and it's coming back o me now. Something's not right in his posts, I don't know what exactly, but I have an urge to lynch this today.
VOTE: Chip Butty
Because I'm not rolling with your pet theory?
You might be obvtown, but that doesn't mean your logic is good.
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Post #549 (isolation #44) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:06 am
Postby Chip Butty »
@Sauce: that's a reasonable question. It's jusy an impression, albeit a strong one.
Nobody voted Lalendra d1, and her vote was on you through several VCs before she jumped on the bins wagon. So you're the strongest living link to her. Comments?
In post 551, momo wrote:Guys, the way Chip Butty and MD manipulated yesterday's lynch just makes me believe they are scum together
the way things are going
VOTE: Chip Butty
his reminds me that Chip kept seesawing Bins until it was apparent she was the lynch and only then did he join the wagon. Bins kept FoSing Chip but never made a serious push on him.
In post 549, Chip Butty wrote:@Sauce: that's a reasonable question. It's jusy an impression, albeit a strong one.
Nobody voted Lalendra d1, and her vote was on you through several VCs before she jumped on the bins wagon. So you're the strongest living link to her. Comments?
Yes. Start scumhunting lest ye be voted.
Nice dodge. My question to you was scumhunting. As in, did you have a motive to silence Lalendra?
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Post #569 (isolation #47) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:25 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
In post 565, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Raya looking back was trying to tunnel hard. Its one of those serious things on Chip and from a pov it looks like Chip was trying to wash his hands clean of Bins where Bins was bussing hard.
VOTE: Chip
My moneys on Fitz as SK also or Almost being that high on reads
bins' vote was on Raya. Raya was town. Ergo, bins wasn't bussing, let alone hard.
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Post #570 (isolation #48) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:27 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
Okay people, I get it. I wasn't too involved in the game d1 and I've set mysrlf up as an easy mislynch, even though it was the Xmas/NY. That's fine. All i ask is you give me time to get a complete readslist out.
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Post #576 (isolation #51) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:38 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
In post 571, Almost50 wrote:@Chip: maybe seesawing isn't the word I wanted to use. You just seemed uninterested in lynching your "70% Scum" read. You joked about being the real cop with a "guilty on MD" (iirc, was that meant to be Math or mutant?). Finally, you practically apologized to Bins for voting her because "you said earlier that you would lynch the SK if you knew who they were", and -in hindsight- it feels like you were telling her it's her fault she fake claimed SK.
THANK YOU for pointing me to why exactly I'm most uncomfortable with your posts.
Seriously? I fakeclaimed cop just to try to add to the general confusion and maybe help save MD (Mathdino). It was a long shot, but worth a try.
I wasn't apologising to bins, i was pointing out that my vote was consistent, since bins had claimed SK.
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Post #577 (isolation #52) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:39 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
In post 575, Almost50 wrote:Oh, I stopped alt hunting. I usually forget who's whom's alt anyway shortly after the game is over. Very few stand out in my memory, bu most get purged by the time I turn off my PC and call it a night.
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Post #583 (isolation #53) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:48 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
I'm less sure of A50 Zthan I was. He backed down from his spurious "seesawing" claim real fast when challenged, he initially voted me without being able to say why, and when he did present reasons, I shot them down easily. Also, his logic on who killed Mathdino is skewed, and I'm not buying that he thought "MD" might mean mutant, when I've been using it to denote Mathdino all game. Not famia, though. If scum then SK, and he is trying to muddy the "who killed whom" waters.
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Post #598 (isolation #54) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:10 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
In post 571, Almost50 wrote:@Chip: maybe seesawing isn't the word I wanted to use. You just seemed uninterested in lynching your "70% Scum" read. You joked about being the real cop with a "guilty on MD" (iirc, was that meant to be Math or mutant?). Finally, you practically apologized to Bins for voting her because "you said earlier that you would lynch the SK if you knew who they were", and -in hindsight- it feels like you were telling her it's her fault she fake claimed SK.
THANK YOU for pointing me to why exactly I'm most uncomfortable with your posts.
@A50: what you smokin, man? The "Math or mutant" I mrntioned was referring to this post by YOU. You're getting a lot of stuff wrong today.
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Post #607 (isolation #55) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:34 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
Okay, here's how I'm looking at this now.
Question: why are Raya and Lalendra dead?
First, like I said before, I think mafia always shoots the cop there. I can see R or L as vig shots. L was pretty much innocuous town, and I think Math was trying to direct the shot there. The real question is thus: Why did the SK shoot into L/R?
I think if the SK chose immunity from NK, he/she shoots the cop most of the time. The exception is if they assume mafia will do it. Otoh, if they chose vig/cop protection, they don't want to kill the cop. I think we can say they chose vig/cop protection, which means they can only be townkilled by lynching. So the SK will want to kill mafia.
That might explain the Raya shot. But HavingFitz was runner-up in the vote, so would seem like a natural choice. Unless HF is the SK. Another possibility is that the SK just didn't buy the case on him. But then, why buy the case on Raya, which wasn't strong? I think HFis a good candidate for SK.
Inb4 "SK-hunting is scummy": Think about it. With 2 scum among 8 slots, eliminating one of those from mafia contention is a significant gain. More importantly, even though the SK will be gunning for mafia, chances are they'll hit town again, and at this point we need to stanch the flow of blood. Also, I'm going to use this assumption to hunt scum in the next few hours.
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Post #609 (isolation #57) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:28 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
In post 412, havingfitz wrote:
Is it in town's best interest to eliminate Bins today?
If Bins is the sk...scum is going to want her out of the game for their wincon AND to stop her from f'ing with the switches. Mafia ABSOLUTELY want sk!Bins to be lynched today. If sk!Bins is left alive today...does mafia dare not shoot her tonight?
If Bins is fakeclaiming mafia...wouldn't the real sk be inclined to kill her? We could just let tbd!Bins last one more night and if she isn't killed (by mafia...or sk?) we could just insta-lynch her tomorrow.
If she is the sk letting her live through tonight would/should kind of handcuff mafia into killing her tonight. And or possibly handcuff a real sk to killing her. Letting her live just f's up scum plans this evening either way and frees town up to vote someone else today (ex. Raya or Maxous)...cause I doubt either of them is getting nk'd anytime soon.
In post 412, havingfitz wrote:Mafia ABSOLUTELY want sk!Bins to be lynched today. If sk!Bins is left alive today...does mafia dare not shoot her tonight?
Wrong if she's guilty she would have nk immunity
I'm not wrong about mafia wanting sk!Bins lynched. But good point about mafia nk immunity. Looks like Bins it is.
:/
Okay, looks like it might be a genuine oversight...
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Post #613 (isolation #60) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:36 pm
Postby Chip Butty »
HavingFitz is due back on the 3rd.
I noticed in reading his ISO that his read on Lalendra stared townish then became progressively worse. He also seemed suspicious of Raya. I'm starting to think he isn't SK, since killing that pair would be kind of blatant.