Mini Normal 1980: TwoInAMillion - The First Game(Town Win!)

[UC Voyager]

Eh, if I was scum, I’d be running this game right now as town leader.

you have said this as scum before


i have a hard time believing boon rolled scum 4 times in a row in a mini normal. i know this is bad reasoning, but the odds are very low. i will still try to consider him scum because anything is possible

[BigYoshiFan]

Okay, I'm back and caught up. Happy New year!

I don't like that stitch came back to a wagon and didn't even bother to comment. Seph, skitter and mulch all feel town to me based on limited meta and their reactions seeming genuine. Frogger also feels town, and transcend is too good for me to read right now. Null on everyone else so I'd say as of right now stitch is my biggest scum read.

Don't want to vote yet as I want to re-read and do an ISO first.

Already you're sounding like quite the opportunist.

[BigYoshiFan]

You have yoshi voting twice.

@Mod, also Fro99er's vote on Lalendra isn't there.

[skitter30]

@UCV: Probability *reeeeeeally* doesn't work like that.

I think Lalendra has a scummy posting style, but idk, I kinda like her last post.

I don't like that stitch came back to a wagon and didn't even bother to comment.

Especially this part.

I'm actually getting very similar vibes to 1963 tbh.

[BigYoshiFan]

i have a hard time believing boon rolled scum 4 times in a row in a mini normal. i know this is bad reasoning, but the odds are very low. i will still try to consider him scum because anything is possible

The chances of him rolling scum in this game are still the same as every other game. Having been scum in previous games doesn't decrease the odds of being scum in the next game.

[BigYoshiFan]

Shit I got sniped.

[skitter30]

Eh, you put it in real words. I was just going to facepalm and link the wiki article on the law of large numbers, but I decided that would probably not be super helpful lol

[BigYoshiFan]

I appreciate you, skitter.

[UC Voyager]

ok. here is what i am saying.


what are the odds of a coin flipping heads.

now what are the odds of two coins flipping heads. lower than just one.

now what are the odds of 4 3 sided dice all rolling 1?

it is rather low, but still possible. that is why i still consider him as a possible scum, but i find it a lot less likely

I will still try to sort him out, but do you guys get where i am coming from

[skitter30]

The odds of two coins flipped sequentially both being heads is .25, but each coin flip still has a .5 chance of being heads.

The odds of 4 3-sided dice all rolling 1 is (1/3)^4, but that doesn't change the fact that if you roll the die again, there's still a 1/3 chance of rolling a 1 that last time.

The fact that he was scum in previous games is literally completely irrelevant to his odds of being scum here since it's randomized each time, and role distribution of game 1980 is independent of role distribution of game 1972 or whatever game.

I get what you're saying, but I'm trying to explain to you that you're thinking about it wrong.

[skitter30]

I appreciate you, skitter.

[Transcend]

Howdy

[WhemePlay]

Partner

[Srceenplay]

Partner

Oops

[Sephiroth]

Man this is quite the game for outing alts. Should I switch to elias_the_thief to be on theme?

[Sephiroth]

Oh thats a hydra nvm

[Sephiroth]

I'm not sure what to make of UC =/

[skitter30]

I've only played with him the once, in 1954, and he played remarkably similarly to here - largely uninterested and popping in once in a while to make some vague, unrelated comment. Was VT. So I've seen him play like this before. I definitely want him resolved (lynch, cop check, vig shot, etc) before LYLO though.

I want to move back on Mulch. Given 1946, his initial read on me was prematurely confident if I'm feeling charitable, faked if I'm not. I pointed out that it was baseless and that he knows how to read me better. He doubled down, and continued to push for my lynch even after he and I both knew he knew I was town. And then he freaked out in a way remarkably similarly to how I saw him react to pressure in 1946.

VOTE: Mulch

I wasn't particularly impressed with how Stitch reacted to being wagoned either; he just kinda ignored it. I feel more confident on scum!Mulch though; I might switch back to Stitch later.

I also feel like the gamestate is stagnating, which kinda indicates to me that scum might be complacent with it.

Also, can someone explain town!creature? I have him as hard null, but the less he does stuff, the more I want to drop him to scumlean.

[Sephiroth]

The game has certainly stagnated but I honestly think that has to do mostly with the holiday.

That said, there is no consensus on who we should be wagoning or lynching. Very fragmented right now.

I will acknowledge that I may have been pocketed/WKed by Creature but either way I don't think they're a good lynch today.

Stitch or Mulch are the people I would most be interested in lynching. Might be down for a lalendra lynch but she still hasn't done anything too sketchy yet.

[skitter30]

I kinda attributed your lack of activity last week to Christmas lol, which is why I didn't find it *that* odd that you weren't around just before deadline, but, well you know how that turned out lol.

Idk; I don't do New Year's, but that's a fair enough explanation lol.

I don't especially think Creature is a good lynch today, but he's kinda in that same group as Lalendra/UCV for me: Want them resolved somehow before LYLO.

[Sephiroth]

Who are you into lynching today? Who are you hardline not into lynching today?

[Mulch]

I've only played with him the once, in 1954, and he played remarkably similarly to here - largely uninterested and popping in once in a while to make some vague, unrelated comment. Was VT. So I've seen him play like this before. I definitely want him resolved (lynch, cop check, vig shot, etc) before LYLO though.

I want to move back on Mulch. Given 1946, his initial read on me was prematurely confident if I'm feeling charitable, faked if I'm not. I pointed out that it was baseless and that he knows how to read me better. He doubled down, and continued to push for my lynch even after he and I both knew he knew I was town. And then he freaked out in a way remarkably similarly to how I saw him react to pressure in 1946.

VOTE: Mulch

I wasn't particularly impressed with how Stitch reacted to being wagoned either; he just kinda ignored it. I feel more confident on scum!Mulch though; I might switch back to Stitch later.

I also feel like the gamestate is stagnating, which kinda indicates to me that scum might be complacent with it.

Also, can someone explain town!creature? I have him as hard null, but the less he does stuff, the more I want to drop him to scumlean.

[skitter30]

Who are you into lynching today? Who are you hardline not into lynching today?

Me?

I want Mulch. I'd be OK with Stitch, and I would probably compromise on one of {UCV/Lalendra/Creature} at deadline. I don't necessarily scumread any of them right now (they're all like some shade of null), but I do want them resolved at some point, and if we're deadlocked at deadline, I'd be OK with resolving one of them then. FL is tending kinda scummy to me too, but I don't think he's ever a lynch candidate today lol.

I am absolutely not lynching you/frogger/yoshi, probably not CoA either (although I don't like that she hasn't posted in like half a week).

[BigYoshiFan]

VOTE: Lalendra

[Creature]

I'm going to the lurker group because I wanted to enjoy some rest?