Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Almost50]

VOTE: Redflavor

This is probably going to bite me in the rear, but I'm willing to test Mathdino's case on Redflavor.

[UnaBombaH]

VOTE: Redflavor

This is probably going to bite me in the rear, but I'm willing to test Mathdino's case on Redflavor.

Before I go to sleep, this raised some flags for me.
I'll analyse tomorrow.

[yessiree]

VC 1.6

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

RedFlavor (3) -

momo, Mathdino, Almost50

JaydragonKing (2) -

Creature, UnabombaH

UnabombaH (1) -

Impede

Mathdino (1) -

Kop

momo (1) -

RedFlavor

Not voting

- BigFinn, Assemblerotws, Hawk, JaydragonKing, havingfitz

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-01-12 08:00:00)

[JaydragonKing]

Uh, guys? I'm kinda scared when I look at the setup page.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

It's history at the bottom literally says town has only won with this once,while the Serial Killer and the Mafia have three each under their belt, and a draw between them. That does not bode well for the majority.

[Mathdino]

Uh, guys? I'm kinda scared when I look at the setup page.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

It's history at the bottom literally says town has only won with this once,while the Serial Killer and the Mafia have three each under their belt, and a draw between them. That does not bode well for the majority.

I was about to ask if you actually had a point here that relates to an action we should take. I guess I'm still asking that.

But MY point is, I had an idea yesterday that I forgot to mention:

We should all hypoclaim (ideally different) Hider targets, and I will personally lynch anyone who doesn't.

There's a 53% chance there's a Hider in this setup. For those not in the know, Hider hides behind someone. If that person is shot or is scum, Hider dies. If the person is town AND isn't shot, Hider lives.
Hider is a weak-ass role specifically because it's hard as shit to tell who they hid behind. It's also tough to even decide who to hide. If you hide behind a super-townie, you run the risk of your target dying. If you hide behind a scummy/null target, you run the risk of hiding behind scum and dying. It's really only useful if you survive and can confirm someone as town. You can't even out publicly that you're hider and who you're gonna hide behind because then scum will just shoot your target if they're town.

Hypoclaiming (Hypothetical claiming) means saying "If I WERE the hider (which I might be), I would hide behind [player x]". As mafia doesn't know who the hider is, they can't just shoot the hider's target and expect to kill someone. If/when hider actually does die, we'll know who they hid behind.

So I'll start.

If I were hider, I would hide behind havingfitz.

Everyone else should go at some point before the day ends.

[momo]

Uh, guys? I'm kinda scared when I look at the setup page.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

It's history at the bottom literally says town has only won with this once,while the Serial Killer and the Mafia have three each under their belt, and a draw between them. That does not bode well for the majority.

Mainly NIA but could be scum trying to appear as town.

With that in mind,

If I were the hider, I would hide behind JayDragonKing.

[JaydragonKing]

Oh don't you dare Momo. I'm not going to keep saying it so it doesn't get annoying, But I still want to live. Don't bait kill me.

But if I HAVE to play along with Dino... I wouldn't even hide night one and function as a named townie day two.

[Almost50]

If I were the hider, I would hide behind Creature.

[Hawk]

That's a decent idea Dino. And will probably get the most out of the role... I haven't looked over the entire setup yet I figured I'd wait until we were farther in.

If I were a hider I would hide behind Kop.

Good feels on Dino and Momo. Uncertain on Kop ATM...

Feeling like this game is crawling along

[Mathdino]

Oh don't you dare Momo. I'm not going to keep saying it so it doesn't get annoying, But I still want to live. Don't bait kill me.

But if I HAVE to play along with Dino... I wouldn't even hide night one and function as a named townie day two.

Bro the whole point is that if we all claim a different hider target, EVERYONE turns into NK-bait. Ideally every single one of us will be someone's hypothetical target. So that way scum doesn't have a better chance of killing a hider by shooting one person over anyone else.

Also you wouldn't even be a named townie D2. If you claimed hider we'd have literally no way to confirm that. Counterclaiming doesn't work in this setup. Maybe we're all VTs, maybe there's 4 town PRs, who knows. You'd be even less believable if you claimed hider and then said "whoops I don't have any results to share with the class".

If you are a hider, please please hide tonight. More information is better than no information. Acting like a VT is just throwing away your power.

And yeah the game is crawling along. Happy New Year's Day? I'm currently good with a lynch on RedFlavor or Jaydragon, and would like prods on inactives. I'm guessing BigFinn isn't gonna show up at all.

[JaydragonKing]

But being a hider comes with the risk of fucking with town even more if you hide in the wrong place. Scum can shoot a townie who the hider is on and they die, everyone-town and scum alike- could make a case that they he was on a scum instead and died that way. You can't ignore the benefit of having a named townie day 2.

[Mathdino]

But being a hider comes with the risk of fucking with town even more if you hide in the wrong place. Scum can shoot a townie who the hider is on and they die, everyone-town and scum alike- could make a case that they he was on a scum instead and died that way. You can't ignore the benefit of having a named townie day 2.

2 points you're making here.

1. It's bad to hide.

This is objectively wrong, and if it were true, hider wouldn't even be a normal role. If EVERYONE says "If I were hider, I'd hide behind [x]" then scum doesn't know who to shoot, and if the hider dies, we'll know the next day who they hid behind so we can decipher the night action.

Also the whole point of claiming who you'll hypothetically hide behind is so no one can make the case that the hider died by hiding behind scum. I'm doing this specifically to nullify scum's ability to make that case.

2. Hider is effectively a named townie on D2.

Claiming hider does not clear someone. There's a high chance we don't have a hider at all, which would make hider a great fakeclaim for mafia. This isn't a benefit at all, it's just added WIFOM. A claimed Hider is absolutely useless if they don't have information to share.

[JaydragonKing]

I really am finding it hard to understand the hider role... But if I just compare it to another role, let's just say it's a semi-weak cop. So your brilliant solution to let him do his investigations with the illusion of scum not being able to figure out he is visiting. Great.

But let's make it more interesting then. We make the hider claim now. Like, right now. He doesn't tell us who he goes too, but we have a tracker on him, because I'm assuming tracker will see where he hides. The tracker will come out day 2 and reveal who the hider hid on before the hider himself, and along with who the hider was on, we have three confirmed townies right off the bat. If the Hider dies, however, the tracker found the scum by virtue of seeing where the hider went, and we Lynch the scum. Still a win there.

Is that good enough of a strategy?

[Hawk]

Doesn't the hider die with the person shot??

Example for arguments sake I am a hider and we all claim our hypohider targets while I claim my actual target.

Scenario 1.
Kop is town and is shot.
We both die. Doesn't really help town.

Kop is scum and I die.
Kop is confirmed scum unless someone claims like doc right?

That's what I'm getting from hider right? They're like suicidal cops at night? Or are the protective roles??

Pedit: Are we guranteed tracker with a hider??

[Mathdino]

I really am finding it hard to understand the hider role... But if I just compare it to another role, let's just say it's a semi-weak cop. So your brilliant solution to let him do his investigations with the illusion of scum not being able to figure out he is visiting. Great.

[snip]

It's actually a much weaker cop, since it also dies if scum shoots the hider target.

Here's the situation I'm trying to avoid: "JaydragonKing has died N1! He was the Hider! [Player X] has died last night! She was a Vanilla Townie!" In this situation, we don't know if you died by hiding behind scum, or by hiding behind Player X.

But if you hypoclaim that you're hiding behind Player Y, then we'll all know that you hid behind Player Y and died while scum shot Player X. THAT is the point of hypoclaiming. It allows us to find scum if/when Hider dies by hiding behind scum, as an additional benefit to Hider being able to already confirm people as town.

Relying on a Tracker that may not exist is a bad idea when Tracker doesn't even know who the Hider is. If there were FOR SURE a Tracker AND a Hider (Hard Boiled Mafia), I would support that idea 100%. That's actually exactly what I tried to implement when I played Hard Boiled.

Doesn't the hider die with the person shot??

Example for arguments sake I am a hider and we all claim our hypohider targets while I claim my actual target.

Scenario 1.
Kop is town and is shot.
We both die. Doesn't really help town.

Kop is scum and I die.
Kop is confirmed scum unless someone claims like doc right?

That's what I'm getting from hider right? They're like suicidal cops at night? Or are the protective roles??

Pedit: Are we guranteed tracker with a hider??

You're basically right. Hider dies if they hide behind scum or a person who dies that night.

Scenario 1 is correct, but could happen even if you didn't hypoclaim, and at least we know you didn't hide behind scum.
Scenario 2 is exactly correct and is the purpose of this plan.

The ideal of course is that Hider gets multiple nights to "investigate" so they can also clear someone as town by hiding behind them. Hypoclaiming allows us to see their hiding history if they happen to die later on before hardclaiming.

[JaydragonKing]

We're not garunteed either, but if the hider claims now, that gives us something to go off of.

Hider goes before even bus driving and Roleblocking, so mafia can't do jackshit to stop them. So if there is a tracker, they stay silent and track the Hider to wherever he goes. And if the Hider says he went to a person but he went someone else or nowhere at all? Instantly caught as scum.

Though to be sure, I think we should get Mod confirmation that Tracker does see where the hider goes, or investigated while hiding for that matter. The wiki specfically mentions not being killed, but nothing about investigatives on him. It seems important for everyone to know.

-- Post Edit --

I take it by that post your against anyone just hard claiming hider then?

[Mathdino]

Holy shit, Hider should absolutely not claim today, I think this is obvious xD

Why would Hider claim right now when we could all just hypoclaim and mafia has no idea who to shoot?

And yes, natural action resolution dictates that the Tracker does see where the Hider goes. I've played with Tracker/Hider before.

But it's more likely than not that we don't have a Tracker/Hider combo, so doing that is useless

. Again, if we for sure had a Tracker/Hider, I would agree with you (read my Hard Boiled Mafia game), but we don't have that for sure, so Hider hypoclaiming is our best option.

[Hawk]

Yeah I'm all aboard the everyone claim a hypohider target everyday until someone flips hider. It's a great play and creates a will basically if all of the hider target potentially clearing multiple townies and finding scum. Highest potential upside 0 downside, unless scum figure out who the hider is.

[UnaBombaH]

Wow what a snoozefest. All the theory talk isn't game-advancing at all. I know Math is posting up a readslist, so I'll do the same. This is mostly gut off of reading the past 2-3 pages.

Momo, Jay
Math, A50

Kop, Hawk

Una, Fitz
-

Everyone else is

null

for lack of content.

This felt like such bullshit.
I admit to being very low-effort so far, but Impede calling the game a "snoozefest" and others having a lack of content while he hasn't said much either..
Just feels very fake.

[UnaBombaH]

So, both momo and Mathdino are correctly TRing me but for the wrong reasons.

This feels out of place.
So much meta and prior interactions have been dragged in these reads and I feel like it devalues most of them.
Mathdino, for now, feels like the towniest of the bunch - momo and A50 are both feeling more sketchy than not.

[UnaBombaH]

However, I don’t like momo’s confidence in townreading A50. Seems contrived.

momo TRs me for 2 reasons, the first of which is I acknowledged his play is usually scummy as Town and even provided reference, so -to him- I must be Town bc I did not capitalize on the fact he is lynch-bait.

The second reason I'd rather not go into, but I'd say it was a false assumption on his part.

So, both momo and Mathdino are correctly TRing me but for the wrong reasons.

Scum would say this. Just FYI. Totally NAI, but this is EXACTLY how scum would capitalize on this sort of situation correctly.

Oh, wow. I actually agree with this.
Guess it's too early to think of connections and AI-reads based on interactions, but I think analyzing both 162 and 170 might yield something interesting D2/D3.

[UnaBombaH]

I know I'm probably TRing one scumster (Scum to me = anti-town, not just group scum), but the chances are higher of hitting a baddie in these 4 still, as I believe Scum would be less motivated to be active during the holidays (it's a good excuse for low activity).

I really, really dislike this part here.
VOTE: Almost50

[UnaBombaH]

I quoted 175 last night right before going to sleep, and now I'm happy I did.
It was a scummy vote-post IMO, and yet again by Almost50..I feel very confident this will flip red.

[UnaBombaH]

OK, spamming will end here.
I really like the hypo-claimage -

If I were to be the Hider, I would hide behind Mathdino

.
I was just recently in a game where there was a role that definitely benefited from crumbing their N1 target.

Elsa comes off very bad with all this nonsense about the Hider claiming and Tracker being around.
What makes it worse, is the fact that she started to dance around the topic right after momo claimed he would hide behind her..

My only problem with the hypo-claims is that if we end up lynching a player who someone has "claimed" to hide behind, we lose the potential crumbs unless they re-claim..

[Kop]

VOTE: Redflavor

This is probably going to bite me in the rear, but I'm willing to test Mathdino's case on Redflavor.

Why do you feel this way? If your feeling that, surely you won't sheep?

Uh, guys? I'm kinda scared when I look at the setup page.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

It's history at the bottom literally says town has only won with this once,while the Serial Killer and the Mafia have three each under their belt, and a draw between them. That does not bode well for the majority.

I was about to ask if you actually had a point here that relates to an action we should take. I guess I'm still asking that.

But MY point is, I had an idea yesterday that I forgot to mention:

We should all hypoclaim (ideally different) Hider targets, and I will personally lynch anyone who doesn't.

There's a 53% chance there's a Hider in this setup. For those not in the know, Hider hides behind someone. If that person is shot or is scum, Hider dies. If the person is town AND isn't shot, Hider lives.
Hider is a weak-ass role specifically because it's hard as shit to tell who they hid behind. It's also tough to even decide who to hide. If you hide behind a super-townie, you run the risk of your target dying. If you hide behind a scummy/null target, you run the risk of hiding behind scum and dying. It's really only useful if you survive and can confirm someone as town. You can't even out publicly that you're hider and who you're gonna hide behind because then scum will just shoot your target if they're town.

Hypoclaiming (Hypothetical claiming) means saying "If I WERE the hider (which I might be), I would hide behind [player x]". As mafia doesn't know who the hider is, they can't just shoot the hider's target and expect to kill someone. If/when hider actually does die, we'll know who they hid behind.

So I'll start.

If I were hider, I would hide behind havingfitz.

Everyone else should go at some point before the day ends.

If I were hider, I would hide behind Almost50.