Mini Normal 1976 - The Firsts - Night 2[End Jan 8]

[rb]

of all 3 claims you want to lynch literally the most believable one

okay...

wot the fuk

[acryon]

My first priority is to lynch who I think is scummiest, but that's not going to happen today. So instead I'll ensure we avoid a NL, and at least it's someone I had some suspicions on that also isn't claiming a powerful role.

[rb]

commuter isn't a powerful role?

HAHAHAHA

[rb]

what is this game

[Apple Jack]

I'm not putting it past Derpy Hooves to be pulling a gambit as either alignment here.

I don’t ever gambit. Hate them actually. You clearly don’t know me at all.

[Apple Jack]

commuter isn't a powerful role?

HAHAHAHA

It isn’t.

[acryon]

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

[rb]

unkillable at night

most active player in the game so far

if we have any protection, they don't even have to protect bujaber on odd nights, so whoever they protect means we have 2 unkillable town members every odd night

holyfuckingshit

like the only reason to do this is because you explicitly think Bujaber is scum and his claim is false. there is absolutely no reason, if you think Bujaber might be town, that this is preferable to another lynch

[rb]

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

relevant only if you actually scumread Buj

[Apple Jack]

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

If mulch and bu are both town that’s not actually true.

[Apple Jack]

Wouldn’t surprise me if acoryn is scum but all these Pr claims coming from scummy people makes it hard to tell who’s lying and who’s telling the truth.

[BuJaber]

Just to explain my vote to acryon coz he didn't like it..

People we have a shot at lynching unless something changes:
Psyko, mulch, me.
To a lesse extent since a lot of people have suspected them at one point or another 2inam and jodax can be lynched if people vote for them.

I think between psyko and 2inam is 1 scum. Wouldn't want to lynch psyko day 1 just to have stronger case on 2inam day 2, that seems reckless.
I wouldn't vote fot myself obviously.
And mulch my instincts have been teing me he's town all game but I am questioning this right now. Whether or not I am right about him it would serve us better if DH shoots him at night which could give us more confidence in his own claim. So I don't want to lynch mulch.

That leaves jodax and 2inam and I picked jodax, because at least 2inam is active and I'd rather be more confident in who I want dead between psyko/2inam before lynching either.

[BuJaber]

We could lynch acryon too if dh and rb are on board, profi is the one who made the case and I agree with his case on him so that's already 4 potential votes.

[profii]

I'm down for an Acryon lynch if he doesn't go find my post and come out with someone convincing.

[profii]

ebwop - @ Acryon - I'm interested in your response to my analysis, mainly the bits that relate to you, but if you want to go through the lot feel free

this post

[Sky_Paladin]

I am here for the next 30 minutes or so but will not be around for phase end. Catching up now.

[acryon]

unkillable at night

most active player in the game so far

if we have any protection, they don't even have to protect bujaber on odd nights, so whoever they protect means we have 2 unkillable town members every odd night

holyfuckingshit

like the only reason to do this is because you explicitly think Bujaber is scum and his claim is false. there is absolutely no reason, if you think Bujaber might be town, that this is preferable to another lynch

Being partially unkillable is only really a benefit to town if we can confirm the person as town. Every scum is unkillable at night too.

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

relevant only if you actually scumread Buj

Relevant for everyone, because no one should be treating Buj as confirmed. And in this case (like Mulch's), we end up giving someone more of a free pass than normal because of their claim, even though their claim is more or less not provable.

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

If mulch and bu are both town that’s not actually true.

Yes, but the odds of either of them living forever as town is very unlikely.

ebwop - @ Acryon - I'm interested in your response to my analysis, mainly the bits that relate to you, but if you want to go through the lot feel free

this post

There isn't actually much analysis to respond to honestly. Mostly conjecture.

Spoiler:

Acryon is really confusing me, everything he says is logically sound... but! Thus far, he has only really directed us towards Mulch. If you read his ISO, you could suggest he has come into the game a bit later on (and I know it's xmas etc) which has given him a position to look at the game and see which direction it has already taken.

I was off of work, which is the only place I can reliably play. You can believe this or not, but nothing to argue with here.

He has taken some steps to appeal to those who think policy lynching Mulch is a positive move and he has also taken steps to appeal to those who just think Mulch is scum. He also softly suggested TIAM and BuJaber are perhaps other lynch targets but his reasoning for TIAM was pants (see above - TIAM is right in saying Scum will statistically mislynch, that's their job! Also, if Derpy kept shooting 'wrong' players, we probably should lynch him. Although that would be subject to his justification and how the game panned out.

Sure scum will statistically mislynch more than town, but actually not that much more, so lynching someone based on who they voted for is just one very small piece of the puzzle. And Derpy told us he is one-shot, so I don't think he will "keep shooting" anyone.

Posts #536 and #537 also rang alarm bells with me, #536 is a Hawk quote saying Acryon has assumed DH wont shoot and he just says "I don't think he will." then #537 is a follow up justifying the scenario where it's basically the same as if we lynch someone else who flips town, the Derpy shoots anyway. Whilst that is true, I was reading with a biased narrative where there is a DH/Acryon link and Acryon knew DH wouldnt shoot, but then found a logical reason to justify it after stating it. Perhaps a scumslip.

You acknowledge you read this as biased. As someone who is also biased since I know I'm town, I obviously disagree with your analysis.

[TwoInAMillion]

Lynching me may be low risk since I am vanilla nut if you are going to do that it would be better to no lynch.

[profii]

The first point is fine
The middle point I don't actually know the stats, but I think the logic that scum will aim for town is a reasonable principle. I went back and spotted the 1 shot bit, I didn't realise that until now. The bit that is most interesting here is no one seemed to correct TIAM & TIAM just assumed Derpy had the potential to be a SK despite saying one shot vig. I missed it so I can't argue he is ignoring the facts but it's an option
The last point - yeah I was just trying to look at the angle where you are scum to see if it made sense. Your logical analysis I like, but I just thought it became too conveniently appealing to everyone, a bit like a horoscope

[acryon]

The first point is fine
The middle point I don't actually know the stats, but I think the logic that scum will aim for town is a reasonable principle. I went back and spotted the 1 shot bit, I didn't realise that until now. The bit that is most interesting here is no one seemed to correct TIAM & TIAM just assumed Derpy had the potential to be a SK despite saying one shot vig. I missed it so I can't argue he is ignoring the facts but it's an option
The last point - yeah I was just trying to look at the angle where you are scum to see if it made sense. Your logical analysis I like, but I just thought it became too conveniently appealing to everyone, a bit like a horoscope

Oh yeah for sure scum will aim for town. But my point is that town can go an entire game voting only for other town, and this happens every game. It's definitely happened for me as town, which is why my point was that reasoning is so much more important than what alignment people actually vote for.

[acryon]

Lynching me may be low risk since I am vanilla nut if you are going to do that it would be better to no lynch.

I still don't think you're the right lynch, but actually lynching a random person who is claiming to be VT is definitely better than a NL.

Every lynch gives info, which is very important for future days, which is why NL are so bad.

[Sky_Paladin]

@RB

why no Pskyo vote? He was your stated scumread in 916, is the next best wagon after BuJaber, and 2iam has 1 vote with 4 hours to go...?

[TwoInAMillion]

The first point is fine
The middle point I don't actually know the stats, but I think the logic that scum will aim for town is a reasonable principle. I went back and spotted the 1 shot bit, I didn't realise that until now. The bit that is most interesting here is no one seemed to correct TIAM & TIAM just assumed Derpy had the potential to be a SK despite saying one shot vig. I missed it so I can't argue he is ignoring the facts but it's an option
The last point - yeah I was just trying to look at the angle where you are scum to see if it made sense. Your logical analysis I like, but I just thought it became too conveniently appealing to everyone, a bit like a horoscope

Never heard of a 1 shot sk?

[profii]

The first point is fine
The middle point I don't actually know the stats, but I think the logic that scum will aim for town is a reasonable principle. I went back and spotted the 1 shot bit, I didn't realise that until now. The bit that is most interesting here is no one seemed to correct TIAM & TIAM just assumed Derpy had the potential to be a SK despite saying one shot vig. I missed it so I can't argue he is ignoring the facts but it's an option
The last point - yeah I was just trying to look at the angle where you are scum to see if it made sense. Your logical analysis I like, but I just thought it became too conveniently appealing to everyone, a bit like a horoscope

Never heard of a 1 shot sk?

he could be a SK but he claims 1 shot vig, so 2nd shot = insta lynch.

[profii]

ebwop the whole point of that post was to link omg I'm dumb

check this out