Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[sheepsaysmeep]

also pagetop

[JaydragonKing]

It's fricken 12:30 guys. Why the heck are you all up. Two of you got to go to school soon.

[sheepsaysmeep]

im pst

[sheepsaysmeep]

i think i'll be up to 12:30 watching uh stuff tho yes

[UnaBombaH]

I don't have to search for the posts I wanted to quote, but I have read what happened during my sleep. I need to leave for work soon, and will stop being mysterious from here on out.
I had my reasons - I got a feeling there's scum in the more vocal and commonly townread players.
And before anyone starts bashing me for playing it like this - I have been lynched "in my sleep" before, because my rhythm is so different from the majority of the playerbase, and heavily pushing for some of peoples top townreads very early might lead to that.. (even though I think it shouldn't)

My current thoughts/problems in this game:
Mathdino has provided good content, and was one of the more solid townreads I have. BUT. I had a very strong feeling they were avoiding commenting on A50, and sort of automatically "townbinned" them. This went against my own read of actually scumleaning them, and raised some flags for me. Dino has since taken a more based and argumented stance on A50, but I fear it's only because I asked for it.

Sidenote:

Impede is one of the few players who seemed to see something there on their own, and I don't think scum!Impede would go there.

One of my griefs is that people say I'm presented in a bad light because I thought Elsa was a townie while some tried to wagon her.
I took her 44 to be a soft, because I happen to know Elsa likes to play "dangerously" with her roles. (she is definitely NOT LyLo-material unless we can somehow conf. her vigs)
I also stated that she WAS definitely a potential D1 lynch (in the event she would've denied the claim/she would've REFUSED to hardclaim it at L-1, etc), but NOT the wagon to push all the way through at this point of the game. We need interactions and discussion before the day ends.

Sidenote: sorry if this is a heavy read, but I'm just writing along where my thoughts go, not going to heavily format this like I usually do (I'm tired and really have to leave soon).

A50 is still my #1 scumread, and the things that support that read just keep on piling.
He had NO REASON to soft a Hider-claim while I was the only one pushing for him. After the hypo-claims, softing a Hider achieves nothing - it just creates the illusion of being "safe".
Also: hardclaiming it makes almost no difference if you are put to L-1 and forced to claim it - you just carry your night-action as hypo-claimed, and the results are there D2 when we wake up.
His "scumreads" and "pushes" have been on the inactives and the only people who scumread him - only picking the easy ones.
His "frustration" towards everyone being scummy felt fake as all hell.
His frustration towards sheep for voting Red AFTER that wagon had started to dissolve is NAI, but I can see why someone would initially read it as town.
I also just remembered that he said he softed Hider BECAUSE he felt like I was going after him. He then says he neither confirms or denies it. If you soft something - own it. Fakeclaiming is stupid, especially this early, and in Opens.

[UnaBombaH]

Some things I forgot to mention when I got lost in writing:

The crux of my problem with Dino, is that I can't find the reasoning why scum would ever suggest the Hider-hypoclaim. And therefore Mathdino is not lynch-material unless he refuses to lynch A50 D2.
Dino is town based on all of his actions - and my paranoia-scumread because of HOW TOWN HE IS (I'm always a bit too paranoid about my strongest townreads, Dino here is no exception, and thus I'm afraid Dino will "protect" A50 from a lynch even if they keep giving tells.)

Why I'm pushing so heavily for A50, and specifically D1?
Because I think he is the kind of player who, if not lynched now, will be gradually even harder to push a lynch on, and will therefore make it to lategame.

I lifted up my opposing reads with Elsa earlier, because I thought they were town. But think we have such opposing reads that we will split the town, and can't work together to form majority on a lynch that needs to be done. I've seen enough games lost because of that - and that isn't to say someone is incompetent or bad, it's to say that sometimes town just can't communicate and coordinate well enough.

[UnaBombaH]

Off to work, might not be around for ~12 - 24 hours, depending on how busy it gets.

Mathdino (PARANOIA DOE BOIS), Impede, havingfitz, Elsa

A50, momo

I'm willing to discuss these names when I get back.

[sheepsaysmeep]

unah is town

[Mathdino]

YA THINK?

[sheepsaysmeep]

yes i do
:ooooooooooooo

[JaydragonKing]

Elsa Jay, smarter then your average bear.

Good Job Una, coming at the perfect time.

[Mathdino]

Tbh nothing about Una's reads is actually convincing me, and he's outright wrong about A50; A50 is a terribly difficult D1 lynch that gets easier as people get more paranoid later on. Like Wisdom. Or fitz. I have a compulsion to respond to a couple things re: me tho:

Mathdino has provided good content, and was one of the more solid townreads I have. BUT. I had a very strong feeling they were avoiding commenting on A50, and sort of automatically "townbinned" them. This went against my own read of actually scumleaning them, and raised some flags for me. Dino has since taken a more based and argumented stance on A50, but I fear it's only because I asked for it.

Gonna stop you there. It seems like you're doing this speculation about what my intentions are when you could've just asked me and I'd have told you exactly the same thing

Like literally, your "strong feeling" is exactly what I was doing. There were a few posts where I explained WHY it is I was doing that. My best recollection of my A50 read progression is:
- Start out auto-townbinning
- Go back and forth between town/nullreading him as he blows his own towncred
- Decide it's just easier to townsort him for now
- Realised that I had no real reason to townsort him, but I definitely don't wanna lynch him
- Suspicions fly (mostly from Una) and I realise I GUESS he could be scum but he's definitely not my kind of D1 lynch
- When the momo/Jay argument was at its peak I dropped him into my lynchables list
- When Jay conftowned I put A50 back in my tentatively town list
Where he remains.
And yeah, you're right, I did to some extent start looking at A50 in a different light because you suggested it. It's probably not gonna turn into any action from me if that's what you want. I'm back to nulltowning him. We'll see tomorrow.
I agree actually that the frustration seems fake. Kinda subconsciously felt that.
But I'm not basing my reads 20 pages in on tone. Not my game.

tl;dr you're absolutely right about everything you've said about me.
With the exception that I think I MIGHT suggest the hypoclaim idea if I felt someone else in the playerlist might do it if I didn't? Idk what Open culture is like nowadays but I used to snatch up shittons of towncred from being the first to gamebreak every Open. So that kind of thing is kinda automatic, and you're not gonna have fun with me in future games if you base your reads off of me night-strategising

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: With the exception that I think I MIGHT suggest the hypoclaim idea

as scum

Point is that setup-breaking is so deeply ingrained into my meta that I'm afraid if people start townreading me every time I do that, they're gonna get super let down when I inevitably do that as scum, and then they're gonna stop actually believing that my strategies work (which they do). So I wanna get that idea out of your head for the sake of my future games.

[sheepsaysmeep]

if i were you i would be doing this endgame

[Mathdino]

if i were you i would be doing this endgame

Yeah you're right I need to stop assuming people know my alignment already, this shit is literally the cause of every time I've been mislynched

I'm sleep deprived as shit, I'll stop WIFOMing my own meta now

[yessiree]

VC 1.16

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Creature (4) -

JaydragonKing, RedFlavor, momo, Almost50

Assemblerotws (3) -

Mathdino, Impede, Hawk

JaydragonKing (2) -

havingfitz, Assemblerotws

Impede (1) -

Kop

Almost50 (1) -

UnabombaH

RedFlavor (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Not voting

- Creature

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-01-12 08:00:00)

[RedFlavor]

436 from almost50 seems townie, impede is probably the scum instead of almost50
also because of 454 , I very agree with that post
momo saying jk on me is really suspciious

Creature hasn't contributed shit

I did contribute, just not the way you want.

Sometimes I don't gather scumreads, but rather I eliminate townreads and see who's left.

he did not even out his townreads

[havingfitz]

You know what? I've just sneezed AND coughed. I bet "now you could see it being Town catching a cold", but it would still comes off as scummy sneezing/coughing to you. Right? Right!

lol...a lot of his posts seem to play both sides of the fence. Could be this...but could be that? Maybe...maybe not....kind of sorta but not really.

Can we lynch Jay? Would consider Impede. Prefer Jay though.

[havingfitz]

if Jay does flip scum, I am a likely NK so if jay flips scum, doctor/jailkeeper/whatever protective or bus driving role there is on me

[havingfitz]

@fitz: I noticed you left sheep off your reads. Reads?

Townleans – Math, Una, Kop, …………………………..momo

+ sheep

Town

[havingfitz]

Was it Fitz who decided to ship us together as a scum team?

No.

Town: Jay

Why? smh...

jay claimed

? Where?

Note on above quotes...I see it know. UNVOTE:

Fitz posp to say Townie things then disappears like a sea lion popping up to take a breath before they dive back in the big blue ocean.

Amusing analogy and accurate in all of my games.


VOTE: Impede

[Hawk]

So nothing in the last 100 plus posts pinged you more than your original read on Impede Fitz??

[Impede]

Impede's meta is failing to respond to accusations/questions/hypotheses directed at/about him. I'm guessing you're gonna find that he didn't respond. I'm guessing he just doesn't care about discussions about him.

And yeah there's really no point in acting as if we'll later have to lynch Jay. If the moment comes, we will, but in the meantime, acting like he's conftown is the way to go.

Thanks for the Kop analysis. You also mentioned Red offhand but not your actual thoughts on his alignment. It seems like he's everyone's 2nd or 3rd scummiest candidate but his wagon is on the backburner. As per Kop's analysis, his alignment (like Jay's) is gonna be a centerpiece in VCA/associatives going forward IMO. Thoughts?

To your point. I tend to answer questions or doubts directed at me, but I find it unproductive to come to my own defense otherwise unless it’s necessary to avoid running up a ML on me.

Also, I posted a somewhat lengthy Kop ISO analysis that got mostly ignored. If you want a slightly scumlensed perspective, it might be worth a look. 361

[Impede]

@Una: IIRC A50’s post where he said he softed hider was before the hypoclaim discussion. That’s what convinced me that it was very unlikely he was making it up. Perhaps he has more exp in this sort of setup and premeditated that sort of play as scum, but idk I don’t really see Scumminess seeping from his alleged soft claim.

[Impede]

You know what? I've just sneezed AND coughed. I bet "now you could see it being Town catching a cold", but it would still comes off as scummy sneezing/coughing to you. Right? Right!

lol...a lot of his posts seem to play both sides of the fence. Could be this...but could be that? Maybe...maybe not....kind of sorta but not really.

Can we lynch Jay? Would consider Impede. Prefer Jay though.

This is my meta. It’s not fence sitting, it’s being open to the possibility of being wrong. It’s also being thorough. I take a position on which possibility I think is most likely but leave the alternative open for consideration by others