Mini 1972 - Friendship is Magic - Game over

[Apple Jack]

Official Vote Count

Psyche

(3): Havo, davesaz, Tchill13

davesaz

(1): Dunnstral

HeWhoSwims

(1): Beefster

Dunnstral

(1): I Am Innocent

Not Voting

(3): Psyche, Toranaga, HeWhoSwims

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-01-12 22:38:47)

[Beefster]

A serial killer... It could be possible but I wouldn't think so right now. I've never played with one, what would they want to do? My guess is scum is always going to be after obvtown - why would the SK do the same twice in a row if neither town not scum can win with SK alive?

wavemode vanished from late D2 until he "retired" early D3. He probably missed N2 and didn't even submit a kill. It's not terribly unlikely that SK and the mafia kill the same person. Or one of the targets could have been protected or he could have been roleblocked.

[HeWhoSwims]

That's true but there's always the possibility he popped up quickly to turn in a kill... but that will always be speculation I guess. What do you think about the scenario in which we get a single kill coming night? Does that exclude SK or not yet?

[Beefster]

I don't think single kill nights can ever get the chances down to 0%. The more single-kill nights there are, the less likely Psyche is a SK, but the chance is never 0.

I can see the virtue in waiting one more night, but also realize that eliminating a SK at a 6 or 7 player Lylo with (probably) 3 mafia alive is an automatic mafia win. In fact, I don't think there's any way to recover from a 3-1-3. So actually, it's now or never.

VOTE: Psyche

[Beefster]

That's L-1

[Beefster]

Actually, there is a way to recover from a 3-1-3, but it requires cooperation from the SK, which is not really in the SK's best interest.

[Beefster]

Never mind. Optimal town play at a 3-1-3 still ends in a loss.
Optimal town play would be to lynch mafia, SK kills mafia, mafia kills town --> 1-1-2, then lynch SK or mafia, remaining scum kills town --> 1-1, then no lynch + last kill --> mafia or SK win.

You can't recover from a 3-1-3, but you CAN recover from a 4-3

[Beefster]

Wait. Forgot the case where the mafia kills the SK. That one ends in a town win.

I don't think that's a good situation to bank on. SKs are often bulletproof.

[Beefster]

Also, a 2M-SK-3T is recoverable, but only if the SK kills the other mafia member after a mafia lynch.

[Beefster]

Point is, having a SK around during LyLo is bad news. Since it is entirely plausible at this point that Psyche is a SK, it would be best to lynch him now.

[davesaz]

I think it's more likely Psyche is just scum, and don't really see much reason to even suspect a SK(*). I think your analysis that it's good to lynch a SK if there is one is correct.

(*) No extra kill results in SK doubt, but it can't be ruled out because one way to play SK is to not kill so nobody suspects there is one -- especially in a closed setup. And matching kill targets / orders not submitted are also possible.

[HeWhoSwims]

Yea I see what you're saying Beef. If there is a SK it would not be good to enter Lylo with them. Even in the case where maf kills the SK (you say this ends in a town win), they could just not do it especially if Wave/Psyche is pointed to as the SK.

Not going through all the scenarios right now, but I'll believe you on that. And as Dave says above me, even if that slot isn't a SK it's still high on my (and others') suspicion lists. I'd be okay with lynching/hammering Psyche at this point. the only issue I see is that it doesn't provide that much info but if Psyche is SK or scum, that wouldn't be dramatic.

[Tchill13]

please just lynch psyche

[Toranaga]

should I hammer

[Psyche]

i just don’t have loads of free time necessary for the kind of analysis you’re looking for from me
it’s gonna take me more time than you seem to have patience for

What analysis? You replace into a game and it is expected to read up on it and start playing. If you couldn’t devote to that why did you replace in?

i figured id pick up reads as the game went on

[Psyche]

i am not scum
you guys are just relying on the same lazy thought process that got you through d1 and d2

[Psyche]

i don't care enough, i just don't
do whatever

[I Am Innocent]

i just don’t have loads of free time necessary for the kind of analysis you’re looking for from me
it’s gonna take me more time than you seem to have patience for

What analysis? You replace into a game and it is expected to read up on it and start playing. If you couldn’t devote to that why did you replace in?

i figured id pick up reads as the game went on

So how did you come across IAI vs Dunn, if you didn’t complete ur catchup and decided to just focus on the game going forward?

[I Am Innocent]

I’d prefer an answer to that before anyone hammers.

[Apple Jack]

Dunnstral has been prodded

[Tchill13]

For the love of all that is good please hammer

[I Am Innocent]

For the love of all that is good please hammer

Town likely has only one mislynch left, I'm in no hurry. Want to see this answer first.

[Tchill13]

i don't care enough, i just don't
do whatever

If you elect to replace in and decide not to put in effort it's your own fault.

[Tchill13]

I'm in no hurry but the game is dead

[Dunnstral]

I've got cold feet on psyche

I'd rather lynch davesaz or havo