Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Impede]

I really don't want to do this, but I really want an answer on this...

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

[Mathdino]

Impede you literally make the same exact kinds of arguments as to why you're not scum, kindly fuck off

Yeah, but at least I say that they are WIFOM-laden and therefore invalid as of the moment I author them.

I mean yeah you do, but acknowledging the WIFOM doesn't make it any less WIFOMy. Either the argument works or it doesn't. Most "if I were scum" arguments are shit because people have no clue what they'd do as scum. The moment someone makes that kind of argument, they force you into the following possibilities:
1. Scum doing what they did would actually be idiotic/anti-scumwincon, or difficult to plan. Plus there's 0 evidence they've done that in the past.
2. Scum actually did plan it out or do a thing on purpose specifically for the towncred of it.
3. It's just wrong and the action isn't actually something scum wouldn't do.
4. The player is the kind of person that plays towngames and scumgames exactly the same on purpose, and so any scummy behaviour is actually null. (for example: I don't use math to gain an edge as scum. I use math in all games. Therefore both using math AND making math errors is null for me)

Anyway momo's case worked because it's ludicrous to think he and I planned that day out + there's no evidence either of us would do something that crazy without a plan (I have done things that crazy with plans, in fairness) + that kind of play is how to get JK'd + either of us flipping scum would fuck us.

"If I were scum" arguments work best when it takes an INSANE number of assumptions to think that the person had scum motivation behind an action.

[Mathdino]

I really don't want to do this, but I really want an answer on this...

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

Happy to help! You're looking at something called Conditional Probability. People get conditional prob. wrong CONSTANTLY, and this is what leads to the answer to the Monty Hall Problem being so heavily doubted. Here's an analogy.

Let's say I tell you I flipped 3 coins. What's the chance of 3 heads in a row? It's pretty trivial to get the answer 1/8.

Then let's say I told you "Ah, Impede, I will tell you I flipped at least one head!". This now rules out all the possibilities in which I flipped tails. The new question:

Given that you know I flipped at least one head

, what is the chance that I flipped 3 heads?

We divide the number of good scenarios (3 heads) by the number of possible scenarios. Possible scenarios are: HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH, and we are not including TTT.

Perhaps counterintuitively, now that you have this knowledge, the chance of 3 heads now becomes 1/7.

If I told you I flipped at least 2 heads, you could similarly find the 4 scenarios HHH HHT HTH HTT, only one of which is desired, leaving a probability of 1/4.

Basically, you just get rid of the impossible scenarios from the denominator.

I kinda broke my promise on doing that math and I'm still procrastinating on the Kopcase (hard to care when he's not here tbh). I'll do the math first.

[Srceenplay]

.me and dino hardly interact like buddies.

Don’t like it.

[Srceenplay]

Dino I’ve explained I am trying to reread you and how. You just disregard it?

[Mathdino]

Dino I’ve explained I am trying to reread you and how. You just disregard it?

Yeah tbh it's kinda hard to care. Like, I've made a lot of content already. Making more content, while under scrutiny from you, shouldn't really significantly change your read on me. The problem is you're a replacement and you weren't there to see my progression in real time.

Like I wouldn't normally make a Kop case if you weren't asking me to, so it's kinda weird to do it now? And I have a hard time believing it'll convince you, and it'd really be more for convincing you I'm town. Like I'm just going through the motions. And once I'm doing something to convince someone I'm town, people should (justly) nullread me for that.

I'll get around to it cuz I said I would. Sorrynotsorry for not really giving a shit. My hope was that more players would've shown up by now so we could take a look at the wagons.

[Srceenplay]

Why are we not using hider as a cop clear?

[Srceenplay]

The way I see this right now, is Creature flips scum, Jay and Red will be seen in a better life. If not, they will pretty much become conf!scum buddies....

Actually, the both of them voting Creature seems like something buddies under pressure would do to me

Imma
VOTE: Jaydragonking right now with the intention of lynching red tommorrow, especially if this slot flips scum

Oh and btw, after this post, if Jay does flip scum, I am a likely NK so if jay flips scum, doctor/jailkeeper/whatever protective or bus driving role there is on me

Could be a def of creature and swaying protectives

[Mathdino]

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

I'll very lightly show my work. Enough for math people to discredit me if I get it wrong. I'm probably not gonna walk you personally through it though sorry.

The remaining possibilities are T, TTT, and TTTTT. SK only occurs on odd playercount. 7 T's impossible due to Tracker death. One letter reserved for Tracker. 6 letters remain.

Txxxxx has 6C1 = 6 permutations.
TTTxxx has 6C3 = 20 permutations.
TTTTTx has 6C5 = 6 permutations.

We treat "T" and "not T" as a coin flip. 50/50 shot. This means that T and x have equal chance of occurring. This simplifies calculations.

Chance of 1 T: 6/32 = 19%
Chance of 3 Ts: 20/32 = 62.5%
Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%

And that's your distribution.

Note that this only applies from the TOTAL OBSERVER perspective. If you yourself are a VT, the probabilities change exceptionally slightly in ways that I can't be bothered to calculate. If you are a PR (not asking), that obviously massively changes the calculations. Hell, I'll do that too just in case.

From the perspective of a PR:

Txxxx has 5C1 = 5 permutations
TTTxx has 5C3 = 10 permutations
TTTTT has 5C5 = just 1 permutation

Chance of 1 T: 31%
Chance of 3 Ts: 62.5%
Chance of 5 Ts: 6%

So like. We probably have 3 Ts and 4 PRs.

Edit: WOW WHAT A GREAT IDEA ITS NOT LIKE I THOUGHT OF THAT ALREADY

[Srceenplay]

This right here makes me wonder if I should retire from mafia and quit while I'm ahead. After this game ends, be prepared for a revamped sig.

It was cool, but it didn't really do that much except cause me to make a mental note to never townread you for this type of thing ever again.

This was a long time ago but do you remember what you mean by it impede?

[Srceenplay]

Momo is red still scum buddies with creature? Or impede?

[UnaBombaH]

Momo is red still scum buddies with creature? Or impede?

Impede is town.
Agree on momo.

..........but what are talking about creature?

[Srceenplay]

Momo is red still scum buddies with creature? Or impede?

Sorry.

I read momo iso last night before bed.

In it he said Red is scum partners with creature.
Even went as far as to say no matter what creature flips we flip Red next.

He then said similar things about impede.

So I’m asking momo if both of these thoughts still hold true and why.

[Kop]

VOTE: Red

This is a avenue I think is what I want to go down right now. That hammer vote doesn't get him any town credit, and I think it stinks a lot of scum cutting ties. His vote on Una made no sense on day one towards the end of it, and he never really gave a good enough reason for me to believe that vote was genuine.

I don't think Screen is scum. Early impressions, yes, but since turn of this day I don't think it.

Momo, I'm unsure of, but he's not a slot I'd like to press right now.

Math, I've town read him a lot on day one, I still do to an extent, but I echo the same thoughts that Screen showed earlier that he could be a scum leader, but that's a far fetch right now. And least of any issues.

Impede is a slot I'd still like to progress down, but I'm willing to accept Math's view on Impede for now.

Fitz, I'm having a hard time reading since the content is very far and between.

(Sorry that this is very brief but I'm just having a hard few days and my head isn't in it right now, personal issues.)

[yessiree]

RedFlavor has requested replacement. Seeking one

[Impede]

This right here makes me wonder if I should retire from mafia and quit while I'm ahead. After this game ends, be prepared for a revamped sig.

It was cool, but it didn't really do that much except cause me to make a mental note to never townread you for this type of thing ever again.

This was a long time ago but do you remember what you mean by it impede?

Whenever you tell someone you townread them for something, you inherently make it harder to townread them for that same thing in the future, because they know it will result on a townread and can use it on purpose as scum. The fact that multiple people townread him for his little trick and he was gloating over it make it utterly null for me in future games.

[Impede]

SK only occurs on odd playercount.

How do you know we have an SK?

[Impede]

So like. We probably have 3 Ts and 4 PRs.

We can’t be in TTT because there’s no bus driver in that setup.

Come on Math.

[Impede]

Edit: WOW WHAT A GREAT IDEA ITS NOT LIKE I THOUGHT OF THAT ALREADY

Lol you love Screen.

[Srceenplay]

This right here makes me wonder if I should retire from mafia and quit while I'm ahead. After this game ends, be prepared for a revamped sig.

It was cool, but it didn't really do that much except cause me to make a mental note to never townread you for this type of thing ever again.

This was a long time ago but do you remember what you mean by it impede?

Whenever you tell someone you townread them for something, you inherently make it harder to townread them for that same thing in the future, because they know it will result on a townread and can use it on purpose as scum. The fact that multiple people townread him for his little trick and he was gloating over it make it utterly null for me in future games.

You it’s a forced town tell to you?
Am I reading that right?

[Srceenplay]

Edit: WOW WHAT A GREAT IDEA ITS NOT LIKE I THOUGHT OF THAT ALREADY

Lol you love Screen.

So...?

[Impede]

You it’s a forced town tell to you?
Am I reading that right?

Not sure what your question is.

Look at the actual context. Momo tried to pull a little trick to catch Jay scumming. It was so convoluted and scumhunty that it was a hard townread.

Now that he knows that type of behavior will bet him a TR, it’s something he’s liable to do as scum in future games, so that’s why I said I won’t ever TR him for that again.

[Srceenplay]

Ok. I understand now.
I read the part where he caught the slip but didn’t understand it. I didn’t see it.
But
I know what you are saying now.

[Mathdino]

So like. We probably have 3 Ts and 4 PRs.

We can’t be in TTT because there’s no bus driver in that setup.

Come on Math.

You're correct, of course (and also fuck you).

An easy way to fix that is to just remove the TTT probabilities and find the ratio between the ones remaining.

From the perspective of a spectator

:

Txxxxx and TTTTTx are of equal probability. 50/50.

From the perspective of a VT

:

I really don't give a shit about this one honestly. But yeah being a VT makes TTTTTx of slightly higher probability. Any VT flips slightly increase that.

From the perspective of a PR

:

Either you're literally the only PR left or there are many left.

Txxxx has 5C1 = 5 permutations
TTTTT has 1 permutation.

There's a 5/6 = 83% chance of 1 T.
There's a 1/6 = 16% chance of 5 Ts.

[yessiree]

.