Night Clan - [Game Over]

[Joey_]

The point is not about the code. That's not why I brought it up. I want to go through with the code and worry about this D2. In fact, we can discuss if we should post N1 targets unthread tomorrow or not. We're getting sidetracked again. AD is scum. LLD had in depth thoughts that were the downsides to the plan. In AD's post, he dismisses this as "hot garbage" which it clearly wasn't for no reason and further says it's "really basic analysis".

Doing this confirms some people as non-daughters to mefias

[Joey_]

Like on average, if assuming that 2-4 people would out their night 1 target whos ends up being mefias, then the daughters pools is reduced from (17-(3 or 4 mefias)= 14-15 possible slot who can be daugters to -> 11-12 slot minus whatever kill they did that night

[Kokichi Oma]

Still 2 days left, we can make some discussions still.

[Joey_]

Yes i am aware and its rarely hard to achieve a lynch, its just hard to coordinate with town to achieve a desirable lynch, in that regard using the last 2 days to do so is fine

So oma, what are your reads/stances, your reads on LLDD/Ash and what about actiondan ?

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 1.6

Yuki Takeya [2] - Kotoko Utsugi, Kaede Akamatsu
Lady Lambdadelta [2] - Kyoko Kirigiri, ActionDan
Hinduragi [2] - Vaxkiller, Kokichi Oma
Kagami [2] - Lady Lambdadelta, Kaito Momota
Kokichi Oma [1] - Nosferatu
Kyoko Kirigiri [1] - boring
Nosferatu [1] - Maki Harukawa
ActionDan [3] - Hinduragi, Joey_, Cabd

Not Voting [3]

- Yuki Takeya, SnarkySnowman, Kagami

With 17 alive it takes 9 votes to lynch.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2018-01-17 12:00:00)

[Kaede Akamatsu]

VOTE: ActionDan

[ActionDan]

Breaking this post into 2.

---

No matter how many times you deny it, 123 and it's more consolidated form, 223, are garbage posts/analysis. I'll spoiler how steps 1)-5) jive with Kagami's plan.

Spoiler: it doesn't

1) The scum know who they are.
2) Even with randomizers, whether or not players specifically state which person they are targeting, you create pools of information.
3) The scum can use these pools of information to narrow and even completely eliminate potential hiders based upon two things
3a) Did someone target them? If they didn't die, they're not a hider
3b) Did someone target their nightkill? If they didn;t die, they're not a hider.
4) eventually, you cna more or less play Cleudo wiht this information and back trace the identities of the 3 hiders via knowledge gained.
5) Because Hiders are compulsive, all the scum need to begin to do is pool shots that give them the most info... and then pool shots that are highest likely to kill Hiders. Average 1 hider will die from targetting scum, and 1 hider will die from walking into a bullet so all scum need to do is identify 1 hider in excess, to my mind, and they'll have the game mostly won on average.

So the issue here is this plan benefits scum greatly.

1) Sure
2) A pool of information is learned by the daughters, and only the daughters; specifically which of them died targeting scum, which of them died targeting town, which town are innocent.
3) No they can't, because they'd need to know the exact combination of daughters a priori to know the information described in 2)
3a) Kagami's plan has nothing to do with non-daughters claiming hypo-hide targets
3b) Same as 3a)
4) No you can't because this information doesn't exist. The only information that does exist to the scum is whether or not their shot succeeded and the names of dead hiders come daystart, if any.
5) There is no way for scum to pool shots because they only have public information. No one in Kagami's plan hypo-claims hide targets. There may be daughters that have strong scum reads to add to the [do not target] list but that's much harder to spot since everyone has scumreads. The only way imaginable for scum to select higher value targets is to tabulate (as nos eluded to) the number of times any random potential daughter brigade (3 non-scum members) when plugged into the code hides behind town player X. Currently that would involve ₁₄C₃ = 364 or ₁₃C₃ = 286 separate tabulations in the cases of 3 or 4 scum respectively.

For one, 123 is not hot garbage. In fact, even though I agree with Kagami's plan, I think those are accurate concerns. It's apparent from that alone that LLD was one of the few people who not only understood the plan but saw the flaws of it. NOONE ELSE pointed out these flaws, not even myself, because we did not think of them.

Its because the "flaws" pointed out by LLD DON'T EXIST, but somehow it's apparent to ONLY you. This is your revisionism

Spoiler:

If scum try to kill someone on N1 and the kill fails, scum can then plug in the numbers and the Day # info (albeit by trying multiple different combinations of people not to target with the code) and reverse-engineer the code to find out to target next night. They can then use this information to figure out who is a daughter. By doing this over multiple nights, they can figure out the daughter team and who they may hide behind. The downside is that they have to figure out who the hiding blacklist might consist of should a daughter use it so there is a degree of wifom in it.

Scum can also use this information to get multiple kills on daughters and their targets in a given night. Scum can also find out who would be due to target them that night, albeit without blacklists and with added wifom, and get confirmed non-daughters from it.

That's what I interpreted 123 from LLD as. I just said we could try this for N1 and go into D2 and worry about it then. Again, this is all potential stuff which is why I sidetracked it. It's not that important or likely to happen. It is still a flaw in the plan, however.

Can you tell me where LLD mentions or even alludes to "If scum try to kill someone on N1 and the kill fails..." or "reverse-engineer the code" because at no point does she do this. You saying she does is literally gas lighting. Furthermore, if these are the "flaws you could not think of" in 667 I'm sorry to say but they are "not hard shit to reason through" as claimed in in 658. Multiple people have discussed the concern about reverse engineering and concluded it's not feasible and, similarly, although to my knowledge never explicitly stated, scum failing their kill N1 is inherently good for us and while it gives them the identity of one daughter a) the daughters (and potentially the rest of town) would know scum know 1 daughter and adjust strategies accordingly and b) scum can't use that information effectively anyway without knowing all 3 daughters.

AD is scum. LLD had in depth thoughts that were the downsides to the plan. In AD's post, he dismisses this as "hot garbage" which it clearly wasn't for no reason and further says it's "really basic analysis".

So no matter how you slice it the above is simply not true. LLD did not have any in depth thoughts at all and I believe you understand kagami's code well enough that I am quite sure LLD's posts on the subject did not unlock some hidden reservations about it.

[ActionDan]

193 was clearly explained with what the answer was expected to be, hence surprising. Just because our expectations are different isn't anything to comment on - unless you're looking for reckless bullshit to pad a catch up post with. Playstyle/personality absolutely impact posting. Mafia is about people, we are not machines. Just because there isn't a "need" for things doesn't mean it's all going to be rainbows and sunshine. In fact, there's no point in explaining this either. It's obvious. There's not a damn reason to be having this discussion.

Actually it is because I have a hard time of believing you had that expectation that a supposed scum slip would be the main reason why Kaede scum read LLD and not the back and forth 2 pages after that culminated in a 1v1. Like you can be surprised all you want but that also means you didn't consider any of the followup which doesn't make sense to me. I'm also noting in this quote that you're putting words in my mouth: I never said Playstyle/personality don't impact posting. Of course they do. I asked why they'd necessarily impact content in terms of logic or votes. LLD can be aggressive and emotional but that doesn't preclude her from making sense, or having bad stances, or pushing bad lynches. In your sycophantic world LLD is a stable genius capable of unearthing the deadly faults of the best laid plans, so I suppose I shouldn't have expected much.

#199, oddly that is an explanation to explain the unvote.

Oddly he remains off of your scumlist at the bottom of your post.

Hmmmm now why could that be? Could it be because I have much stronger scum reads on both you and LLD for more egregious and consistent scum posting? Nahhhhhhh.

Cabd's unvote remains scummy but afterwords he didn't drop his line of questioning on LLD with regard to what flaws she saw in kagami's plan which led to 223 (albeit after LLD prompted him). I thought that was an indication that he did think 123 was indeed inadequate.

He's now voting me and thinks LLD is locktown which I can tell you is just lovely. Suffice it to say I'm less than enthused.

Again, not a damn reason to comment on 243 unless you're just looking through things to add to a post. The thought behind it is great. There's no reason to discredit what is being said.

The thought behind it? roughly translated: "Anime rp account posts Anime image and I'm sincerely debating between the motivation to RP outweighing what otherwise would be a clearly anti-town post outlining a a possible town non-daughter". Great thought. Good brain.

Actually it's nonsensical because anyone with more than 2 braincells could have deduced LLD if town was a non-daughter from that post. Kaede doesn't need to tell anyone that. Joey's post is exactly the kind of fluff you're deriding me for. This "thought" could have gone unspoken.

You say 268 is terrible. Right. But we've already gone over it and it's not even on the table anymore. So why are you still worried so much about setup? Why aren't you trying to scumhunt? Don't say you're not reviewing what you write either. 281 and 307 are grouped on the same line with each other so you're clearly going over what you've written.

Sorry 268 offends my delicate sensibilities, unsure why you're taking issue with me calling it terrible unless you saw an opportunity to lob the following two questions right after. The answers to those are a) that I'm not worried something like 268 is ever going to happen, although I low-key worry without a consensus on a plan we'll be dysfunctional wrt to night actions and b) I'm scum hunting just fine thanks. Yes I review what I write, mostly, unsure what the implication is there.

My 281 clearly shows Kagami expects a daughter claim and is wanting a lynch. Feigning ignorance to that is ignoring what's right in front of you.

For the record, since there isn't context with this and while I'm looking over this abomination of a post.

Don’t see how Kagami’s 279 is scummy either. or how you think Kagami is daughter hunting.

I got scumread because AD doesn't see "how 279 is scummy or " how I "think Kagami is daughter hunting" in 281. There's no reasoning here. There's no basis. There's simply disagreement. Noone else questioned this because it's pretty obvious the aim of the post is expecting a daughter claim in reply, which Kagami later clarified was the case.

Well in 284 that would be Kagami questioning it and in 285 clarifying that was not the case. This is all within around 2 posts of yours too. Are you... feigning ignorance?

However, I don't think the other interpretation is scummy either, that is, to pursue a read that's essentially daughter or bust, which again, kagami wasn't actually doing.

Ok between this and 307, I’d say Hindu is being almost obsequious regarding LLD and disagree with basically everything he says

307 is clearly not even me. If you mean 306, Vax was voting LLD and not even mentioning she's scum and keeping his options open. Of course I'm going to call that out.

I was summarizing posts between 281 and 307 exclusive. But for 305 specifically I do in fact think your last paragraph does have standing were it limited to Vax's vote, "'content they made after'", and "You're not adding anything to the discussion" (in the sense of Vax not talking about whether Vax agrees or not with that content making LLD scum) in that order. That is something I agreed with. But you embellished tacking on daughter hunting / uselessness / trolling / and being unable to empathize with a town perspective, which as I said, and what you cut out of the quote, was ironic.

I don’t like any of #313-316especially since #318 gives a reasonable read, making the former posts look like posturing.

Being upset that people are doing anti-town things when you think they're town is a lot more upsetting than when you're scum. It is hard for scum to relate to this feeling while reading over these posts, though, so I can understand your misinterpretation.

It's also true that town that think another player is town don't generally go out of their way to treat them like shit, no matter what the circumstances. And these so called anti-town posts aren't really that bad at all. All of Joey's posts are ridiculously over the top. I mean maybe he just has anger management issues but they didn't fit.

321 and 322 are blanket statements because they're opening up the possibility of scum LLD/Vax without any further exploration on the topic. They're just naturally fencesitting on both reads (i.e. these people could be scum, also, they could not). By contrast, I'm expressing specific dislike of both posts.

It's pretty clear you're trying to create a narrative with your post here. Earlier you said it's bad to not use logic or have a bad vote. Yet, these posts break that rule and are "very town" and "town". Right.

Just because I didn't explain it doesn't mean the logic isn't there. Vax's posts called out your embellishments. He dug in and I thought it was warranted.

Buttering up Kyoto? Stretch much? No content of worth? ok pretty sure you made a massive post in response to a bunch.

Right, because it's a vote on me. You said nothing about 413 at all yet made this post liking "this reaction". Town does not do this. They don't like a post and agree with a reaction or feel good about a reaction. They don't see someone saying "I can't let this post go without a vote" and then say "yeah.... I LIKE THAT". Coming from someone who has been arguing about things being logical, liking "this reaction" is not logical.

In 417 the vote on you has nothing to do with it, it was the knee-jerk reaction to vote that. However, I'm glad I'll be introducing you to a new and yet rather common move town does to add to your extensive collection.

#533/536 is actually a terrible conversing point and added to just be there.

No.

Pointing out that Kagami isn't an idiot to negate most of LLD's point in 539 is "befriending" now. Alright I'll keep it in my mind wouldn't want to burst your narrative you've got going.

#555 a rare contradiction within a sentence of each other.

A not-so-rare copy of providing absolutely no thoughts or explanation to go along with a view. My 555 is clearly me saying Kokichi isn't providing content and asking for that same content from Kokichi. How in the world you expect others to think you can form a scumread on me for reasons like THIS is baffling.

I must be misremembering

Kokichi is shaky but I'd like to see more posting. We only have about ~4 days left for lynch and at least Kokichi is contributing and trying.

The kitty wants me voted, but can barely explain why. How about you tell me why first?

Instead of being a cheeky fuck, contribute to this game please. What are your reads? Do you have any? What are your thoughts? A

lot

has happened.

Ah nope I wasn't. That said I wasn't under any illusions that the juxtaposition was anything but deliberate at the time and now. So I have to ask why you thought it necessary to not address the contradiction I mentioned (and which you set up) that Kokichi was both contributing and trying, and at the same time, not.

I can see town/town and I can see town LLD / scum Hindu. But I really don't see how Utsugi has scum LLD / town Hindu

Funny thing about this is it's an obvious lie-

You're voting LLD while displaying that you are more sure of me being scum. Right.

I mean to me you're both interchangeably scum. However you're the one with the "Trust me, I bet my life on town LLD" which if you're to be believed, means that scum LLD => scum you.

But I'm more than happy to have it your way. Besides the wagons bigger now (partially because it seems I'm doing my best to take votes away from LLD and unto me)

VOTE: Hinduragi

[Kaede Akamatsu]

UNVOTE:
Idk, AD doesn't look scum to me.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Was voting because deadline but after reading those walls idk anymore, my gut tells me this is wrong.

[Maki Harukawa]

What piano girl said

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I wanna vote some of these lurkaderps. I have a weird gut feeling they're watching this fire burn.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

and I don't even know where I stand on Kagami right now tbh.

[Hinduragi]

I'm not sold on this at all. I don't know how much of these walls you guys are reading but he's barely given any reasons for his scumreads as of wall 1. I'm still replying to wall 2 but this is again just filler tbh

[Hinduragi]

One of his many sentences is where I called him out in his wall: he replied some unnecessary comment about an anime image being posted by an anime account. He replied in wall 2 saying he just wanted to say "great thoughts. good brain". How the fuck is this a good wall?

[Hinduragi]

Can you tell me where LLD mentions or even alludes to "If scum try to kill someone on N1 and the kill fails..."

So if we confirm targets from players, it will eliminate PRIVATELY for the scum who is NOT the hiders.

Eventually, this will confirm for the scum who the daughters are, but not the town.

Each night we progress with this, the worse it will become.

I just extracted it from that while trying to understand what she said. Analysis of what you're calling garbage should be actually thinking through what's said instead of dismissal and name calling.

But good god do I not want to wall back and forth with you.

So no matter how you slice it the above is simply not true. LLD did not have any in depth thoughts at all and I believe you understand kagami's code well enough that I am quite sure LLD's posts on the subject did not unlock some hidden reservations about it.

It did and I've posted them above. In fact, the first time we've really discussed some of them was after Kagami asked me about it. Like I said, they weren't really important unless we're past N1/N2 so it's no big deal.

In your sycophantic world LLD is a stable genius capable of unearthing the deadly faults of the best laid plans, so I suppose I shouldn't have expected much.

Right after putting words in my mouth, you say this. No, my dude. In fact, come post-game, it's gonna be "OH OK HINDU". Don't belittle me as if I'm blindly following LLD and putting her on some pedestal. I know she's town. That's fact.

Actually it is because I have a hard time of believing you had that expectation that a supposed scum slip would be the main reason why Kaede scum read LLD and not the back and forth 2 pages after that culminated in a 1v1. Like you can be surprised all you want but that also means you didn't consider any of the followup which doesn't make sense to me.

Why not? People opportunistically jump on "scum slips" all the damn time. And what "back and forth"? It was barely that. I don't remember any of this being explained so I don't see why it "should be obvious" unless you're just attributing me to reading minds.

Well in 284 that would be Kagami questioning it and in 285 clarifying that was not the case. This is all within around 2 posts of yours too. Are you... feigning ignorance?

However, I don't think the other interpretation is scummy either, that is, to pursue a read that's essentially daughter or bust, which again, kagami wasn't actually doing.

284/285: Kagami was clearly not explaining she thought LLD claimed non-daughter prior to that. It's easy to think she was daughter hunting in 281 --> which was clearly posted before 284/285. Your questioning of that post is entirely off. Kagami responded to my post with those posts, not the other way around.

But you embellished tacking on daughter hunting / uselessness / trolling / and being unable to empathize with a town perspective, which as I said, and what you cut out of the quote, was ironic.

Right. You're getting largely off base from where we began. What's the point here?

It's also true that town that think another player is town don't generally go out of their way to treat them like shit, no matter what the circumstances.

This isn't true. At all. If you get upset with someone outing information because of their playstyle, I can easily see someone calling them out on it while pissed.

By contrast, I'm expressing specific dislike of both posts.

You're being so vague with what you "like" and "dislike" about content or nature of posts that you are equally making blanket statements, if not moreso.

If Vax's concerns were warranted, I have no idea how Joey's weren't. Nor LLD's. No really. Vax blowing up like that was entirely unwarranted. And saying he's town for that while calling Joey scum for his own similar comments is definitely pushing a narrative.

So I have to ask why you thought it necessary to not address the contradiction I mentioned

There was no contradiction. Kokichi was at least posting, hence trying/contributing as said in the first line. Kokichi was not giving hards reads/stances on players hence why I said "contribute" in the next sentence and immediately after asked for those stances/reads. I used the same word twice in a post in reference to Kokichi, yes. There's more than one kind of contribution in mafia and in life.

I mean to me you're both interchangeably scum. However you're the one with the "Trust me, I bet my life on town LLD" which if you're to be believed, means that scum LLD => scum you.

Noone reading this game should be able to accurately feel this way about the two of us. I would never defend a scumbuddy in this way. If I was on a scumteam with LLD, I would push her wagon myself. When I die and flip town, are you going to think LLD is town? Do you really think you're genuinely doing a good job at reading players in this game?

[Hinduragi]

Actually, to get some substance out of this, AD. What's your scumread on me from? The reasons in your wall about me being scum are laughable at best.

[Hinduragi]

Alright, I'm going to step out of the game for a second and just say one thing because I was rageposting while writing that up.

Spoiler: Really this is just for AD but we all know you want to click it

I apologize for being rude in 713/714, AD. I've had a long day and I

really

despise walls and got pissed that there was another one as soon as I got time to read and post today. It's really irked me even moreso that you've been calling out anime images in them and I've wasted my time locating the post just to realize it has no relevance to anyone being scum/town and you're just commenting on it. Also, I still do think that's filler but I wouldn't necessarily say that makes it a bad wall. I'm honestly not having fun due to trying to read so much as well as respond to walls.

<3 AD, but I still think you're scum. Also, I'm not going to be linking god knows everything in a wall and quoting it all starting from this post; From the moment I sat down, it has taken me over 2 hours to form my response after first trying to understand what was linked and how that related to the second wall. It took me even longer to go through the first wall. I really can't keep up that kind of time commitment right now.

[Joey_]

All of Joey's posts are ridiculously over the top. I mean maybe he just has anger management issues but they didn't fit.

Read some of my past games if you scumread me for that

[Joey_]

idk about dan, the guy barely make sens honestly but i do share the feeling about being unsure of his alignement, i just feels that the guy's incoherent and its not because of his alignement or better say regardless of his alignement

[Joey_]

im thinking about my vote and im not really sure where to put it, if anything i dont really mind roping dan

[Hinduragi]

Dan, Yuki, Snarky, boring

In that order are people I'm willing to vote come deadline. I'm not sold at all on boring but she's VLA so lurking right now is null from her. Are players prodded in this game? Didn't see anything about it in the rules.

[FakeGod]

Players are prodded upon request.

[Hinduragi]

Players are prodded upon request.

Thank you. I had no idea you were reading along so closely, that's awesome.

Can you please prod Yuki Takeya?

Snarky said he was VLA this weekend as well.

[Maki Harukawa]

ayyyy finally prods