Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[sheepsaysmeep]

smoehow

[sheepsaysmeep]

listen boy...you know what this looks like...you defending a scum buddy...

you hopped on every single wagon except for the ones on assemble/screen

In fact...you were defending asseble...saying you liked him for town even though there was no content to cause a townread

everyone, go to sheep's iso and ctrl+f assemble...every single mention has sheep defending that slot

n00b!scum at it's finest

y'all can choose a vote, sheep or screen...I'm fine on either

holy shit
LOOK AT THIS FUCKING MISREPRESENTATION
at the very beginning when i just replace in i like assemble
then i say i prefer his lynch over smoe other lynch
that's it

[yessiree]

VC 2.6

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Srceenplay (3) -

havingfitz, Mathdino, momo

momo (2) -

sheepsaysmeep, UnabombaH

sheepsaysmeep (1) -

Impede

Not voting

- AnonymousGhost, Hawk, Kop, Srceenplay

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-01-23 20:00:00)

[Mathdino]

I CAME IN LIKE A WREEEEEEECKING BALLLLLLL
I NEVER SEEN SO BAAAAAD A POOOOOST
ALL I WANTED WAS TO BREEEAAAAK YOUR WALLLLLLLS
ALL YOU EVER DID WAS
FAA-AAI-AIIIL ME
YEAH YOU
WRE-E-ECK ME

Anything important that everyone should know?

I’ll iso when needed.

Anyone found a way to break this setup?

No, just no..I have replaced into games frequently and I can say that when I get a town pm...if the game is withing 50 pages, I will ask for a summary but actually have the intent to read and scumhunt...something like this; hands down lazy scum.

im not seeing how he gets that screen has no intent to read and scumhunt from this post. this is also bullshit because he LITERALLY STARTS SCUMHUNTING RIGHT AFTER that post and momo wrote this case a fucking long while after

Bro this is exactly the kind of replace-in that people find scummy. It's just a weird tone AND the slot was scummy so there was a lot of confbias surrounding it.
Is this more to defend Screenplay or attack momo?

Making votes based on post 90 on post 900 is nonsense....especially when the person you are voting is part of the town leadership and leading a wagon on likely scum.

it's fine it's not like dino was a lynch candidate
momo's basically attacking screen for attacking someone momo's townreading
like it's not that scummy for him to not realize that screen doing this isnt scummy cause i can see this being vi

Barreling after someone that's not a lynch option is an easy thing for scum to do when people are coming down on your buddy. It absolves you of any real responsibility for counterwagons and makes you look original. Tunneling is hard to read and scum often capitalises on it.
Also I'm attacking people who are attacking my townreads so like
what's your point? Chainsaw defending is a buddytell. Do you think momo is WKing me?

VOTE: impede

I think as of now I would rather this slot be the lynch and I haven’t even seen creature yet.

Voting without reading... a solid scum reason to be able to protect your buddy as a replace in but not something town worth the space their post takes up would ever do.

like it's already pretty clear that screen had read quite a bit at that point but especially momo just because you play pussytown doesnt mean town will never vote a scumread before theyre fully caught up

Placing that vote left Screenplay in confbias mode that he still hasn't gotten out of I think. It seems like Screenplay set out his trajectory before he had all the evidence and then used the evidence to support his already-decided goals.

VOTE: Dino

Not helpful

Math,
Summarize Kop and Fitz for us.

Was hard scum reading dino....now want's dino's opinion to shape his reads instead of actually scum hunting...

yeah and this is obviously very bad because changing reads doesnt exist and a vote and saying smth isnt helpful always means a hard scum read
like this is a REALLY bad misrep

Screenplay made no indication that a read change happened. The fact that his read change coincided with town gradually giving him more shit for it is concerning.

Is your entire momo case just telling momo his Screenplay case is shit?

Mod Edit: fixed quotes.

[Srceenplay]

I'm also townreading Math for this idea. I do not see any possible way scum could benefit from this, as it massively enhances the power of a town role they have no way of knowing could be present.

Agreed-o.

I mean, I CAN see how scum might try to abuse this in their NK planning, but if we manage to steer their night actions towards sub-optimal with theoretical claims, I still think its good for us.

Almost50

,

momo

and

creature

are scumteam

1 in 3 rule. Calling our Red, Creature & Una for the Scum team.

This is such a BS line-up.
While I can't slot Red OR Creature well enough yet, I'd be willing to say there's 0 scum in this list!

Since we are throwing shit around, I almost feel like calling the scumteam here and now, but I want to see more interactions first.

Who here can see scum!Almost50 without me explaining it? (again)

Everyone is welcome to discuss the slot obviously, but I want to especially hear from Mathdino, Impede, havingfitz and momo - if you'll humor me on this, Id appreciate it!

VOTE: UnaBombaH

[sheepsaysmeep]

no his entire push is just misreps

[havingfitz]

Your ISO sucks Srceen. I do not think you are town this game.

No case on Math that I can see. You were meh on momo but decided he was a better vote. And now you're sheeping A50 on Una?

smh.....still good with my Srceen vote. More votes on that wagon would be nice.

[havingfitz]

*fitz's "townslip" can be faked

What "townslip" are you referring to?

[Mathdino]

Just roll with it.

Thoughts on sheep, Ghost, and Kop?

Also, just to confirm we have only 1 scum remaining, answer Yes/No to the following question: "Are you one of the roles {Tracker, 1-shot Commuter, Gunsmith}?"

[Mathdino]

no his entire push is just misreps

Do you believe only scum misreps? (I don't even see it as misrep honestly because I agree with the case but)

Do you believe scum intentionally lies about other players to get them lynched?

[havingfitz]

I'm curious.

I don't think Ghost or Kop are mafia. sheep could be if Srceen isn't.

Question...if we are in the 1 mafia 1 SK remaining configuration...that means we probably have 1 town PR still out there. How does helping scum narrow down what the final town pr might be (or who it might be) help town?

[Mathdino]

Question...if we are in the 1 mafia 1 SK remaining configuration...that means we probably have 1 town PR still out there. How does helping scum narrow down what the final town pr might be (or who it might be) help town?

Because if we have 1 mafia 1 SK, the PRs I listed

literally can't exist

.

Double tracker requires III.
Gunsmith requires RR.
1-shot commuter requires HH.

Once you and Kop confirm that you're neither of these roles, we'll have almost-confirmed 1 mafia left.

[havingfitz]

Fair point.

No.

[Srceenplay]

Im going back and reevaluating.
If we are 1 and 1 associations is a little harder.
Obviously momo and Dino wouldn’t be a team.
So I’m taking a step back.

So new Poe is una kop hawk.
Somewhat fitz

[Srceenplay]

I’m not sheeping a50.
I am quoting posts that caught my attention from una iso.

In one post una talks about seeing benefits for scum.
He emphasized I CAN.
I know everyone is going to say it’s nothing to go on but in felt foreshadowing to me.

On the next one A50 gives his scum team.
Una says he doesn’t think any of them are right, lol.
Again another thing everyone will probably say is nothing but it’s little nuances that I notice.

[AnonymousGhost]

@Screen

Can you explain why Kop, Hawk, and fitz are in that list?

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: math

The gamestart chances for each possible 1T setup assuming Kop answers "no" and assuming no vig:
(Setups with K are multipled by 1/2 due to 50% chance of vengeful)

Two I's:
IIHKRPT = 21*120*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 5% * 10% * 50% = 0.00070875
IIHKPPT = 21*60*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00070875
IIHRPPT = 21*60*15%*15% * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00070875
IIHPPPT = 21*20*15%*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0004725
IIKRPPT = 21*60*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000354375
IIKPPPT = 21*20*15%*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00023625
IIRPPPT = 21*20*15%*15% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00023625
IIPPPPT = 21*5*15%*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000118125
Sums to 0.002835.

One I:
IHKRPPT = 7*360*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0004725
IHKPPPT = 7*120*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000315
IHRPPPT = 7*120*15% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.000315
IHPPPPT = 7*30*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0001575
IKRPPPT = 7*120*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.0001575
IKPPPPT = 7*30*15% * 1/2 * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00007875
IRPPPPT = 7*30*15% * 5% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00007875
IPPPPPT = 7*6*15% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 10% * 50% = 0.00007875
Sums to 0.00165375.

All sums to 0.00448875 or 0.449%.

Spoiler: fuck me, more math

Gamestart chances for each possible 5T setup and assuming no vig:
IITTTTT = 21 * 15% * 15% * 50%^5 = 0.014765625
IPTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 10% * 50%^5 = 0.196875
IHTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 10% * 50%^5 = 0.196875
IKTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 10% * 50%^5 = 0.196875
IRTTTTT = 42 * 15% * 5% * 50%^5 = 0.00984375
Sums to 0.083671875 or 8.37%.

0.449% chance of valid 1T setups, and 8.37% chance of valid 5T setups. Purging invalid setups, means

P(1T) = 0.449%/(0.449%+8.37%) = 0.0509 = 5.1%.
P(5T) = 8.37%/(8.37%+0.449%) = 0.9591 = 95.9%.

tl;dr: We have a 96% chance of 1 mafia 1 SK remaining.

Don't even need the vengeful claims.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: I made an error in my notes but not in my calculations. Instances of "0.196875" should read "0.0196875". The math checks out the same.

[Srceenplay]

@Screen

Can you explain why Kop, Hawk, and fitz are in that list?

No. Not to your satisfaction.

[AnonymousGhost]

Well okay then.

[momo]

@Screen

Can you explain why Kop, Hawk, and fitz are in that list?

No. Not to your satisfaction.

Scum

why aren't we lynching this

[Mathdino]

ghostiiiiie have you reevaluated yet

I think we have about half the playerlist on approximately the same page {Math, Impede, fitz, momo, Hawk}. We're gonna have trouble getting a lynch if that remains half.

Specifically I'm interested in:
- reevaluation of momo scumread
- reevaluation given that we have 1 mafia left
- thoughts on sheep's behaviour lately
- we could just lynch Kop though right

Edit: momo, don't go tunnel mode. You know that post is NAI.

[momo]

Edit: momo, don't go tunnel mode. You know that post is NAI.

It's not that post that's scummy

It's the fact they went from pulling on a huge case on me to mostly naked vote and unsubstantial statements

[momo]

That ^^^ is playing like pressured scum

[sheepsaysmeep]

@Screen

Can you explain why Kop, Hawk, and fitz are in that list?

No. Not to your satisfaction.

Scum

why aren't we lynching this

like
screen's post is fine
momo's literally playing the same as i do from an informed pov