Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]
-
-
AnonymousGhost Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1898
- Joined: October 28, 2017
-
-
Mathdino Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
I would ask the hiders to hide behind people they think are scum this time.
If you hide behind someone to confirm them as town, scum might shoot them anyway. You don't want to die that way.
It's SIGNIFICANTLY more useful for town for you to hide behind scum and die. We then have one confirmed town and one confirmed scum.
sheep if you wanna change your choice feel free.
Edit: Nice pick.-
-
AnonymousGhost Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1898
- Joined: October 28, 2017
Adding onto this,
Hiders can also choose their theoretical target based on whether or not they believe their chosen target is theSK. The theoretical Hider will die if they hide behind the SK.-
-
AnonymousGhost Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1898
- Joined: October 28, 2017
@Mod - Please replace me.
Sorry to do this to you guys. I hope you find a replacement in a reasonable amount of time! It's been an uphill battle putting in recent effort. Sadly this wouldn't improve over the course of the game, judging by my upcoming schedule change. It would not fair for you or me if I couldn't participate due to lack of time and motivation.
Anyway!
Good luck chickadees!
~ Ghost-
-
Mathdino Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
Thanks for saving your slot. Cheers. Hope you come back to the site.-
-
yessiree heMafia Scumhe
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4390
- Joined: June 6, 2013
- Pronoun: he
-
-
Mathdino Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
I just finished a game with RedFlavor. He didn't replace out of that one.
Hate to use alignment indicative replacements as a strategy, but I think Ghost's slot has become my strongest townread.-
-
Impede Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
-
-
Mathdino Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
Yo so I don't think there's a doctor because ~reasons~ (unrelated to my role; if I am a PR, there's a 5% chance there are other PRs, and I still don't think there's a doc). PR has a high chance of dying tonight so here's a quick guide:
PR possibilities:
Hider: We're taking care of that.
1-shot Tracker: I hope you breadcrumbed well, because whomever you tracked last night is obviously clear.
Jailkeeper: Same goes to you. Breadcrumbs are king. Breadcrumbing future targets is also good.
Vengeful: Basically a named townie, this would suck.
Rolecop: Is basically our test for serial killer cuz mafia only has a goon left. Hopefully said something.
VTs out there: If you wanna help the friendly PR, it wouldn't hurt to start breadcrumbing random players as if you checked them or will check them. This muddles scum's ability to find the real PR. Real PR should definitely be breadcrumbing target somehow in a way that becomes clear upon ISO.
Anyway, I think I'm at a point where I'd feel more comfortable lynching Kop than sheep.
For those of you interested in analysing sheep:
Here's a massive metadive someone did in a completed game just now. Outlines different things about town!sheep and scum!sheep. I can't really be arsed to go through his ISO and do a case but I encourage you guys to and see if you find anything.-
-
Srceenplay Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7419
- Joined: November 29, 2016
If una has a high chance of being either one or the other, why do you keep voting somewhere else?In post 1545, Mathdino wrote:Not maf bloc: {momo, Impede, Ghost, Hawk, Screen}
Lynchpool: {sheep, Kop, fitz}
Kinda both: {Una}
Let’s sort it right now and we know who we are looking for after that flip.
Right now I feel like una is mafia and math is sk. Math knows this and is using una is sk to distance himself from sk. He is trying to vote elsewhere to keep a scum role alive one more night.
Thoughts?"A man can not be too careful on the choices of his enemies." Oscar Wilde-
-
yessiree heMafia Scumhe
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4390
- Joined: June 6, 2013
- Pronoun: he
-
-
havingfitz Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10118
- Joined: July 1, 2009
- Location: Here....no, here...wait! There!
Rereading from before the weekend.
@Math....why is Una a town read for you in this reads list? (Hawk asks same question in 1243).
The last line of Math's post 1312 caught my attention for some reason. "Between SK and mafia, do you really think momo/I will live to endgame anyway?" At the moment I'm of the opinion neither of them is scum so I doubt it turns out to be anything...but I wanted to mention it in case it turns out they are the last mafia and the SK (based on no vig claims).
Still not sure what "townslip" sheep is referring to.
@Math....when you say "He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible." who are you referring to? If me...I do not think this comment is accurate.
@Math....where am I "trying to 'prove' there's only 1 mafia left?" If we are assuming there is no vig based on the claims you requested of everyone...the only option that exists in the game is TTTTT, which includes an SK. I guess there is a very slim chance of 1T, which would be bad, but I'm discounting it because 1) odds are so low and 2) because that would mean a shit load of town prs are still in the game and I'm sure someone would have claimed...or provided a result...or something to indicate there was more than 1 town pr remaining in the game. I started to make a post on this last Friday but then when I was about to post it it just felt mostly redundant to what Math was already saying and I passed. But for those who are wondering where my mind was at last week wrt the remaining roles...here is the post (spoilered) I was going to post last friday:
------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------Spoiler: My crack at math
I'm not sure where people are getting townslips OR scumflips from but IMO there are no issues with my understanding of the game set up. The one thing I will say I am not sure of is all the different variables/possibilities for what the remaining town pr/s might be are. As Math has worked tirelessy to try and uncover.
Back to my weekend reread/catch up...
@Math....how are you coming to the conclusion that Assembler's post 93 is from town or SK? Because mafia!Assembler would not so obviously town read a partner?
....If the answer is yes...I disagree. And on that possibility...Creature did seem hands off the Assembler role fwiw (Ex. post 455 where Creature questions Math's vote on Assembler and post 952 where he rates Srceen "town I guess.").
....If not that...why?
@Impede....why are you ruling Una out as a potential SK?
@momo....how am I overanalyzing the Creature lynch? I have three D2 posts (prior to this one) where I say I think mafia was not on Creature's wagon. Three posts. Same assessment in each. No rocket science involved. Where is the overanalyzing? A bit redundant perhaps as I was addressing different players with each post...but Creature was in fact the D1 lynch and his flip does warrant consideration.
I like Impede's post 1536. How does that make him not an option as sk Math? I also like Impede's post 1540 pointing out Una Creature comments.
@Math....I did not assume throughout the day (today) that there was 1 scum remaining. Up to the point we heard back from all the vig claims (which I still dislike) I was open to there being one or two mafia still in the game. I've given my reasons for thinking 0 and 1 T were never really strong options. TT and TTTTT however were both equal possibilities for me most of today (prior to accepting the vig claims). I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.
wrt Anon's post 1544 Day Two comment that I agree with Math's case Impede is likely town...that is incorrect. I am in agreement Impede is likely town...but not for "Math's case" which was competing wagons. Mine was VCA based and did not take competing wagons into consideration.
@Math....What do you mean if only I wouldn't have hid behind jay? My D1 hypo target was RedFlavor.
My current reads:
As I mentioned before...(and on the assumption 1 mafia left)...I do not think there is mafia on the Creature lynch.
In order...
Not Mafia - Gamma, Hawk, Impede, momo, Math
Mafia candidates - sheep, Una, Srceen/Kop
I have no idea at this point who the SK is (for many reasons mentioned in Impede's post 1536). My hope would be that SK was off the Creature lynch as well and if we miss mafia...we get lucky and hit SK.
I'll hypo hide behind Kop.
I'll vote either sheep or Una. Not clearing Srceen but the sheep Una suspicions are stronger.
sheep's closer to lynch so I'll VOTE: UnaBombaH.Town 57w-66l :: Not Town 29w-16l:: TBD 2
V/LA on weekends (i.e. RL > mafia)
The shortest GTKAS thread ever!-
-
Impede Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
-
-
Impede Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
I don't think Role Cop gets a meaningful result on SK. I think SK investigates as Vanilla.In post 1558, Mathdino wrote:Rolecop: Is basically our test for serial killer cuz mafia only has a goon left. Hopefully said something.Town: 5-1 | Scum: 0-1
Permanently on a mental V/LA-
-
Impede Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
Nvm, I'm dumb af. SK has abilities.In post 1563, Impede wrote:I don't think Role Cop gets a meaningful result on SK. I think SK investigates as Vanilla.Town: 5-1 | Scum: 0-1
Permanently on a mental V/LA-
-
Impede Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
Not really ruling out, but if he was being genuine in his push on A50, then one would expect him to save that kill for later in the game rather than risk shooting maf on D1 (as Math kindly clarified)In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:@Impede....why are you ruling Una out as a potential SK?Town: 5-1 | Scum: 0-1
Permanently on a mental V/LA-
-
Hawk Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1594
- Joined: December 19, 2016
- Location: Southern USA
Did everyone claim not the XX roles so we're almost certainly 5T?? If they did I would like to address Fitz concern that IF town still has Vig that they should claim... because in the event that we do have Vig and not SK and we don't have II, RR, or HH, because people haven't claimed Gunsmith, 1-shot Tracker, 1 shot Commuter then we would firmly be in a good spot that P or PP could be possible and doc would have claimed Vigis back and JOAT would have to Wifom who's Doc.-
-
Hawk Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1594
- Joined: December 19, 2016
- Location: Southern USA
-
-
Impede Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
Unless I’m dumb, this is false. This is the reason that 7T is impossible.In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible.Town: 5-1 | Scum: 0-1
Permanently on a mental V/LA-
-
havingfitz Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10118
- Joined: July 1, 2009
- Location: Here....no, here...wait! There!
Yes. 6T too.In post 1568, Impede wrote:
Unless I’m dumb, this is false. This is the reason that 7T is impossible.In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible.Town 57w-66l :: Not Town 29w-16l:: TBD 2
V/LA on weekends (i.e. RL > mafia)
The shortest GTKAS thread ever!-
-
Mathdino Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
Welcome back to paranoia city. I got cold feet on the Una thing a few pages ago. You can see this both times I was asked to go through Una's ISO. There are a few things that don't make sense with him as SK.In post 1559, Srceenplay wrote:If una has a high chance of being either one or the other, why do you keep voting somewhere else?
Let’s sort it right now and we know who we are looking for after that flip.
Right now I feel like una is mafia and math is sk. Math knows this and is using una is sk to distance himself from sk. He is trying to vote elsewhere to keep a scum role alive one more night.
Thoughts?
But look, if we get mafia today, as I'm obviously trying to, and I'm somehow still not dead, you can take a second look at me.
Your theory requires me to actually believe Una is mafia (and I've presented several pieces of evidence to the contrary) and then whirlwind into bullshitting a vote on someone else (do you really see evidence of that in my analysis?).
lol ok i'll just be the setup guy thenIn post 1566, Hawk wrote:Did everyone claim not the XX roles so we're almost certainly 5T?? If they did I would like to address Fitz concern that IF town still has Vig that they should claim... because in the event that we do have Vig and not SK and we don't have II, RR, or HH, because people haven't claimed Gunsmith, 1-shot Tracker, 1 shot Commuter then we would firmly be in a good spot that P or PP could be possible and doc would have claimed Vigis back and JOAT would have to Wifom who's Doc.
Town does NOT have a vig, if anyone claims vig I'm honestly just gonna assume they're SK.
The chance that we have 2 docs is around 2.5%. Don't bet on it. We probably have one power role alive and I'm fairly sure it's not doc.-
-
Mathdino Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
Does fitz know that I think incorrect/bad math and setup spec is a towntell for me?
@fitz:Your math is wrong in more than a few ways, but I don't really care enough to refute it unless you really want me to. Basically I already went over that a while ago.
But none of that matters now because we've pretty much narrowed down the setup.-
-
Impede Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
This is contingent on no JK. If there’s a JK, there’s an offchance that one of the kills got roleblocked and we could have Vig and SK.In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible. Meaning vigi claim would firmly cement us into 2t I think. while no Vigi claim puts us into 1t or 5t because there were 2 NK.Town: 5-1 | Scum: 0-1
Permanently on a mental V/LA-
-
havingfitz Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10118
- Joined: July 1, 2009
- Location: Here....no, here...wait! There!
1 -In post 1571, Mathdino wrote:1- Does fitz know that I think incorrect/bad math and setup spec is a towntell for me?
2-@fitz:Your math is wrong in more than a few ways, but I don't really care enough to refute it unless you really want me to. Basically I already went over that a while ago.
But none of that matters now because we've pretty much narrowed down the setup.
2-In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I started to make a post on this last Friday but then when I was about to post it it just felt mostly redundant to what Math was already saying and I passed. But for those who are wondering where my mind was at last week wrt the remaining roles...here is the post (spoilered) I was going to post last friday:Town 57w-66l :: Not Town 29w-16l:: TBD 2
V/LA on weekends (i.e. RL > mafia)
The shortest GTKAS thread ever!-
-
Mathdino Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
A few of these questions could've been answered by paying more attention tbh. But more content, more questions I guess.
Holdover of townread from D1, and I also answered this when Screen asked me to ISO Una/Creature together.In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:@Math....why is Una a town read for you in this reads list? (Hawk asks same question in 1243).
And I think it's accurate. It's hard for me to prove you wrong because we're probably actually in 5T, but you were wrong there.In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:@Math....when you say "He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible." who are you referring to? If me...I do not think this comment is accurate.
Believe it or not, after the Tracker flip, 1T and 5T were of exactly equal probability. This is because the Tracker flip in a sense removes a letter from the conversation, leaving 6 unknown letters. 1T and 5T are symmetrical. It was 50/50 before we realised almost no one was a PR.In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:@Math....where am I "trying to 'prove' there's only 1 mafia left?" If we are assuming there is no vig based on the claims you requested of everyone...the only option that exists in the game is TTTTT, which includes an SK. I guess there is a very slim chance of 1T, which would be bad, but I'm discounting it because 1) odds are so low and 2) because that would mean a shit load of town prs are still in the game and I'm sure someone would have claimed...or provided a result...or something to indicate there was more than 1 town pr remaining in the game.
Not only obviously townreading him but singling him out and claiming to be able to read him and being completely wrong. It's not like it's a secret, being able to read Creature. He put himself out there in a way I don't think scum would want to be accountable for.In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:@Math....how are you coming to the conclusion that Assembler's post 93 is from town or SK? Because mafia!Assembler would not so obviously town read a partner?
....If the answer is yes...I disagree. And on that possibility...Creature did seem hands off the Assembler role fwiw (Ex. post 455 where Creature questions Math's vote on Assembler and post 952 where he rates Srceen "town I guess.").
Because he has no idea what the fuck SK would do and this indicates that he hasn't put himself in the mind of an SK.In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I like Impede's post 1536. How does that make him not an option as sk Math? I also like Impede's post 1540 pointing out Una Creature comments.
OK.In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:@Math....I did not assume throughout the day (today) that there was 1 scum remaining. Up to the point we heard back from all the vig claims (which I still dislike) I was open to there being one or two mafia still in the game. I've given my reasons for thinking 0 and 1 T were never really strong options. TT and TTTTT however were both equal possibilities for me most of today (prior to accepting the vig claims). I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.
@Math....What do you mean if only I wouldn't have hid behind jay? My D1 hypo target was RedFlavor.[/quote]
Jay had RedFlavor in his shooting pool. We emergency reorganised our hider targets at the end of the day.
From this I'm reading that you haven't really kept up tbh.
Not super impressed with fitz's catchup (also given that half is fallacious math) but dude's probably town.
Literally no one has given me a good case on Una-mafia. I did a bit of that meta literature and I do think sheep is playing his scumgame. Vote stands here.
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.