Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over


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Post Post #1250 (ISO) » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:51 pm

Post by Maxous »

In post 1248, CultOfAthena wrote:I'll admit that he slipped under my radar, but looking from his ISO at me there's definitely something there – how closely did you look at his ISO and what did you get out of it?
i had a brief look over his ISO. It's hard to get connections out of it as he was purposely being vague and fence sitting about most players.

Also @Maxous, did you come to a conclusion at all there on EP? You quoted all of EP's posts and briefly described them, but you didn't really talk
about
them.
The TL;DR is that when you break the posts down there is not much content there - in a couple of posts of particular he deffo could and should of said more - and i think both of his votes were weak and unconvincing
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Post Post #1251 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:58 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1249, Klick wrote:Transcend doesn't get his
second
shot. Which changes everything. That's why the Vig was made two-shot in this setup, and why vigs are numbered evenly in general. Eventually we could end up in MyLo, where optimal play is to no-lynch. Killing Transcend essentially means town lost a town-controlled kill.
We get to lylo either way...
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Post Post #1252 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:23 am

Post by texcat »

In post 1247, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1245, texcat wrote:
In post 1243, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1241, texcat wrote:
In post 1240, Thor665 wrote:Obviously scum had a lot of alternate options - but what makes you think it slightly likely that zero scum bussed?
Shrug. Anything's possible.
Sure, anything's possible.
What made you consider that one though?
??
I don't know what you're talking about.
You can always click in the quote links to backtrack a conversation. :neutral:
I'm talking about why you would normally expect zero scum on that wagon.
First I said that my guess would be one off and one on the wagon. Then you forced me to pick from 2 on or 2 off the wagon. Normally I would say 2 off because I just don't think scum bus that much as a general rule. Why are you asking?
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Post Post #1253 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:32 am

Post by Thor665 »

I didn't force you to pick - you openly stated that you expected more often than not both scum would be off the wagon - which is opposite everything I've ever learned to expect so I was curious to understand the thinking.
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Post Post #1254 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:05 am

Post by mozamis »

have we lynched thor yet?
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #1255 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:17 am

Post by mozamis »

In post 1232, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1229, mozamis wrote:
In post 1226, Thor665 wrote:And I did explain my vote when Moneybags asked me about it.
yes, your reason was you were "sheeping town who isn't arguing something that i think is unlikely".
then you have 5 posts until end of day when you never push Hewho. This seem sweird from someone who had pushed someone hard all game.
That ignores this post also.
viewtopic.php?p=9898727#p9898727

Your case on me is also still apparently that I'm an utter idiot with no good plans.
:neutral:
that post you quote didnt give a case on Hewhosims so...more irrelevant stuff from you.
i've never said you are na idiot, my case on you is that you tunnelled on town day 1., and never pushed Hewho, and have never done any scum hunting - i don't count tunnelling flubber as hunting, it was vote parking. How could somoene who tunneled Flub so hard just then "sheep" and never push Hewho? That's not your style at all.
and then you kick of Day 2 with a lurker vote?!!! After we have had a scum flip, and 2 nk's, and whole load of other possibilities?
Youre not trying to find scum.
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #1256 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:21 am

Post by mozamis »

In post 1246, Beefster wrote:Meh. Not feeling into reading in detail right now, but I saw a mozamis vote and I want in on that action.

VOTE: mozamis
come on man, you gotta have a reason. Thor hasn't given a cas me, he just OMGused me.
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #1257 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:26 am

Post by mozamis »

god that catch up post from Cult was empty of reads.
Thinking Thor cult scum team?
Tex and Ep are lynch bait, and Beef may spur scum onto thinking they can get me. Although Cult is gonna have a hard time backtracking form her "Moz definitely town" read from Day 1.
I dont understand why people arent voting Thor - he's voted me, and then his next few posts are just questions that have nothing to do with me - or Ep - he's NOT SCUM HUNTING, hes not rying ot get anyone lynched.
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #1258 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:28 am

Post by mozamis »

In post 1235, Maxous wrote:FTR, Thor is not getting town-cred for the HWS lynch.
He did not "create the situation", while there wasn't a guarantee HWS would be lynched, it was entirely plausible and his scumbuddies would of surely known that
absolutely. vote thor.
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #1259 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:33 am

Post by texcat »

In post 1205, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1204, texcat wrote:I think the best place to start looking is at the 4 remaining who did not vote for HWS. While it's certainly possible that scum bussed HWS, I think it's unlikely that both scum voted there.
Do you think it's more likely that both scum voted him or both scum didn't?
Because it's super safe to expect one in each location, so...

Also, still hate Beef wagon.
You certainly
asked
me to pick.
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Post Post #1260 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:39 am

Post by Klick »

In post 1251, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1249, Klick wrote:Transcend doesn't get his
second
shot. Which changes everything. That's why the Vig was made two-shot in this setup, and why vigs are numbered evenly in general. Eventually we could end up in MyLo, where optimal play is to no-lynch. Killing Transcend essentially means town lost a town-controlled kill.
We get to lylo either way...
You've never seen this before Thor? I'm baffled.
Assume two scum are alive at LyLo or MyLo.

13 players
Lynch - 12 players, 1 town kill
NK on Vig and Vig shot - 10 players, 2 town kills
Lynch - 9 players, 3 town kills
NK - 8 players
Lynch - 7 players, 4 town kills
NK - 6 players. Town has had 4 kills before not being allowed a mislynch.

13 players
Lynch - 12 players, 1 town kill
NK and Vig shot - 10 players, 2 town kills
Lynch - 9 players, 3 town kills
NK and Vig shot - 7 players, 4 town kills
Lynch - 6 players, 5 town kills
NK - 5 players. Town has had 5 kills before not being allowed a mislynch.

Transcend living last night would have been nothing but good for town.
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Post Post #1261 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:51 am

Post by Errantparabola »

1.
In post 598, Maxous wrote:@errant: bit of a hard question to answer. I think there could be more conclusions to your thoughts?
I don't know how much I read this as scum but this is basically "I made up a reason to throw shade at EP because I felt it pertinent to push there, but when queried about it, had nothing to back it up so backpedaled"
Maxous is definitely playing like lethargic/carefree town or doing a good job of emulating it so I'm conflicted

--

2.
In post 733, Transcend wrote:if someone can towncase coa then i'll happily laeave her alone
I think this is pertinent. RC, you just keep saying "I have great reasons to townread CoA" and that may be true, and obviously you don't want to share your meta tells but as long as this happens I'm not really going to care.

I still don't scumread moz and maybe RC could talk a little more about that because I did mention that it was the kind of read that MS was bad at, and I can def understand why you'd say that

--

3. I don't really townread Klick anymore, I think scum a lot of the time is prone to strong starts and then not a lot to townread afterwards and that's sort of the vibe I'm getting-- obviously I could be crazy here but yeah, I don't know.

--

4. I think Beefster is town.

is obviously wrong-- all of those things could be as true as if I were scum. My life is the same either way. But it does make Beefster seem very town to me. Is he capable of faking that as scum, I don't know. I don't think so.
In addition I think end of D1 Beefster comes across as towny. He's got a lot of options, people he thinks might be scum, attempting to have a direction.
I think HWS defense seems at first glance, a very town perspective, especially paired with hindsight post. But I think that second point is maybe underestimating a hypothetical scum Beefster's ability to comfortably interact around a scumbuddy

--

5. I'm kind of willing to vote texcat today? My hesitations are mostly gut but I also think maybe I'm being influenced by something along the lines of too scummy to be scum logic? Not quite sure there. Mainly, I really don't think "let's analyse the players who weren't voting HWS to start with" is a scum opening on D2.

--

6. sick case, Maxous.

--

The largest version of my lynchpool is this:
{Thor, Klick, texcat, Athena, Maxous} and I think the order is somewhat like this
{Athena > Maxous > texcat > Thor > Klick}

I would be willing to
VOTE: Klick
here because he's going for texcat/Thor and almost completely stagnating around that and his other weak reads. I'm open to reconsidering because I do think that scum is more inclined to open aggressively after a scum lynch but I don't think that factors in heavily enough to change off of here.

Some conclusions on the playerlist from catchup:


I don't know if Thor scum is as consistently noncommittal about texcat if she were his buddy and so I doubt that they're partners together. If anyone has experience there, I think it's important if Thor/tex is a prominent theory
That said, I would be inclined, vaguely, to think that Thor is more likely scum than texcat.
If I stop having the impression of Maxous-town very uninvested in the game, he potentially becomes my top scumread. But as for now that impression remains.
I have no solid foothold on how to start reading Athena. But I do think that a large part of her engagement with the game is reactive rather than worried about solving the game.
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
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Post Post #1262 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:47 am

Post by Flubbernugget »

I don't know where your gauge of beefster's competence comes from but I'm not agreeing with it in the slightest.

I admit it seems strange to see Thor bus HWS over Tex, but I'm still attributing that to being a victim of circumstance.
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Post Post #1263 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:05 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1255, mozamis wrote: that post you quote didnt give a case on Hewhosims so...more irrelevant stuff from you.
It's exactly a case.
In post 1255, mozamis wrote:i've never said you are na idiot, my case on you is that you tunnelled on town day 1., and never pushed Hewho, and have never done any scum hunting - i don't count tunnelling flubber as hunting, it was vote parking. How could somoene who tunneled Flub so hard just then "sheep" and never push Hewho? That's not your style at all.
If it's not my style (and...what awareness are you claiming of my style?) then what makes you think I changed how I play scum in order to play this weird new way here?
In post 1255, mozamis wrote:and then you kick of Day 2 with a lurker vote?!!! After we have had a scum flip, and 2 nk's, and whole load of other possibilities?
Youre not trying to find scum.
You're saying it's impossible for a lurker to be scum?
Because that's the only way this is an issue.
In post 1256, mozamis wrote: come on man, you gotta have a reason. Thor hasn't given a cas me, he just OMGused me.
I gave a case on you - it's that your case on me is so blind and bad as to require you to be scum.
It's actually very slightly like your case on me - except the it doesn't require you to be intentionally playing bad as scum for the case to work as a scum case.
In post 1259, texcat wrote:You certainly
asked
me to pick.
I did.
Though in what I'm quoting you'd already established that you thought it was most likely for zero to one bussers max.
And I felt that two bussers was more likely than zero bussers and was curious to see if I understood you correctly.
Once you clarified I then got curious and asked more.

Is this going somewhere?
In post 1260, Klick wrote:Transcend living last night would have been nothing but good for town.
If you believe Vig kills are superior or equal to lynches, sure.
In post 1262, Flubbernugget wrote:I admit it seems strange to see Thor bus HWS over Tex, but I'm still attributing that to being a victim of circumstance.
Careful Flub, you're skating dangerously close to The Iceberg of Obviousness

Look at my interaction with Moz and ask yourself what's going on there.
Look at what he's claiming as my scum play.
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Post Post #1264 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:07 am

Post by Klick »

I believe vig kills are superior to scum kills. Which is what it's just been replaced with. We just lost a town kill. See my last post.
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Post Post #1265 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:14 am

Post by Thor665 »

I actually consider Vigs anti-town on the whole, so I'm not sure you're going to find an overly excited convert here.
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Post Post #1266 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:14 am

Post by Thor665 »

I mean, just to clarify, he killed an active poster who most people had as a town read who was indeed town.
Describe how that's different from a scum kill.
I'll wait.
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Post Post #1267 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:26 am

Post by Klick »

I'm not arguing that Transcend's kill on Moneybags was good. It was awful. I'm also not arguing that Vigs in general are pro-town. I'm arguing that Transcend's second Vig shot could have only been good for town. Because instead of that Vig kill, scum now have an extra night kill eventually. A vig kill is certainly better for town than that.
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Post Post #1268 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:32 am

Post by Flubbernugget »

less theory more scumhunt
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Post Post #1269 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:27 pm

Post by Thor665 »

@Flub - you know I did just ask you something, if you'd like to scumhunt a bit yourself.
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Post Post #1270 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:30 pm

Post by texcat »

In post 1261, Errantparabola wrote:The largest version of my lynchpool is this:
{Thor, Klick, texcat, Athena, Maxous} and I think the order is somewhat like this
{Athena > Maxous > texcat > Thor > Klick}

I would be willing to
VOTE: Klick
here because he's going for texcat/Thor and almost completely stagnating around that and his other weak reads. I'm open to reconsidering because I do think that scum is more inclined to open aggressively after a scum lynch but I don't think that factors in heavily enough to change off of here.
Can you clarify this? I originally thought that "Athena > " ... meant that Athena was the scummiest and Klick the least scummy, but your next sentences seem to indicate it's the other way round.
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Post Post #1271 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:31 pm

Post by texcat »

In post 1263, Thor665 wrote:Is this going somewhere?
I'm not going anywhere with it. You were the one asking.
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Post Post #1272 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:44 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1271, texcat wrote:
In post 1263, Thor665 wrote:Is this going somewhere?
I'm not going anywhere with it. You were the one asking.
That's not true - my question was about your thought process that ended in you going :shrug:
Your questioning is about how I asked you about it - which is what I was answering for the second time.
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Post Post #1273 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:59 pm

Post by CultOfAthena »

In post 1249, Klick wrote:Transcend doesn't get his
second
shot. Which changes everything. That's why the Vig was made two-shot in this setup, and why vigs are numbered evenly in general. Eventually we could end up in MyLo, where optimal play is to no-lynch. Killing Transcend essentially means town lost a town-controlled kill.
I have no idea what you're trying to say here – if scum weren't scared of Transcend's shot, the fact that it's town-controlled shouldn't make any difference.
In post 1250, Maxous wrote:
In post 1248, CultOfAthena wrote:I'll admit that he slipped under my radar, but looking from his ISO at me there's definitely something there – how closely did you look at his ISO and what did you get out of it?
i had a brief look over his ISO. It's hard to get connections out of it as he was purposely being vague and fence sitting about most players.
But you made the point that it specifically incriminates me – I'm asking what you saw there that would point to me over anyone else, because I looked back through it myself, and even if I am coming at it from my own biased point of view, I'm having a hard time believing that this is a genuine point that you're making.
In post 1257, mozamis wrote:
god that catch up post from Cult was empty of reads
.
Thinking Thor cult scum team?
Tex and Ep are lynch bait, and Beef may spur scum onto thinking they can get me. Although Cult is gonna have a hard time backtracking form her "Moz definitely town" read from Day 1.
Haven't we already gone over this? Because I'm getting pretty tired of repeating myself. Also – not backtracking anything and I don't intend to, as much as you sometimes make me wish I could.
In post 1261, Errantparabola wrote:I don't know how much I read this as scum but this is basically "I made up a reason to throw shade at EP because I felt it pertinent to push there, but when queried about it, had nothing to back it up so backpedaled"
Maxous is definitely playing like lethargic/carefree town or doing a good job of emulating it so I'm conflicted
Are you saying that you think that town makes up reasons to throw shade and then backpedals when pushed? Because saying this and then following it up with a townread on Max makes it seem like you're not actually trying to sort him to me.

Could you talk more about not thinking that people have valid reasons to scumread you? Also: what was the deal with your RC scumread?
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Post Post #1274 (ISO) » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:48 pm

Post by mozamis »

You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...

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