Mini Normal 1984: Big Brother is watching.. [END GAME]

[rb]

Gambler's fallacy

[profii]

the point was more asking eth0s do you think dunkers would be audacious enough to say he is wary of FL and then NK him or does he like to be subtle as a scum player.

eth0s has recent scum partner experience with dunkers so is best placed to answer but you can never trust anyone 100% - the gamble makes him more trustworthy but it is gambling.

regardless of eth0s answer, I think it is something that dunkers has done that is worth highlighting for everyone to make their own decision about, obviously you can see I'm town leaning on it

[profii]

Interesting that you went straight for the gamble bit though

[rb]

Well since neither are suspecting each other:

- eth0s how is Dunkers town this game, and why?
- Dunkers, same about eth0s

[rb]

Jodaxq's number 1 suspect was Lalendra, just btw.

I feel like it's a weird kill and it wouldn't surprise me if Lalendra was scum.

[rb]

Also I really won't have time until Friday, since I have three 11 hour work days in a row coming up but if someone can look into Acryon (I have no real read) that'd be great.

We need to play today with some conviction, a lot of people are floundering and that's kinda fine on Day1 but with 2 flips we should be building pressure on our respective top scumreads.

[acryon]

Good point on the not needing a double scum push. The first thing that springs to mind is eth0s town slip by mentioning the day chat thing. 17

While I still feel eth0s is likely town, "townslips" mean nothing and can easily be fabricated.

After a quick skim of the thread, I think there is a distinct difference in Thor vs Saucy and Acryon vs Saucy.

I felt that Thor spent his time querying how Saucy applied the game logic and tried to make scum cases that way.

I felt that Acryon attacked Saucys toxic character more than his gameplay. Given Saucys toxicity was apparent very early on I'm going to...

Interesting. Would you mind linking to the posts where you think I was focusing more-so on his toxicity? I actually searched my posts for words like 'toxic', 'jerk', 'rude', and didn't find any, so I'm thinking you're misremembering. But I'm happy to hear you out if you find evidence to the contrary.

Just so it's clear, I'm voting eth0s because he's the most fakely active player in the game and the claim to explain why the Sauce wagon is bad is just as fake active. He flipped town, we know it's bad - that helps us find scum how exactly?

His ISO is pretty much a case study in active lurking, although I'm not convinced that's scum here.

the point was more asking eth0s do you think dunkers would be audacious enough to say he is wary of FL and then NK him or does he like to be subtle as a scum player.

You've gone down this line of thinking a few times profii, and I think it's fairly dangerous. Unless you have some heavy specific experience to suggest otherwise, we should be operating under the assumption that anyone is capable of anything.

Dunker and Lelendra are top 2 scumreads for me. I think Kop needs some heavy pressure today or we're going to be stuck with a nullslot that haunts the rest of the game.

VOTE: Kop

[rb]

> dunker and lalendra are my top2 scumreads
*doesnt vote either of them*

dkskdkskkakdgjshhahwhdjkfkskzjflekddl

[acryon]

> dunker and lalendra are my top2 scumreads
*doesnt vote either of them*

dkskdkskkakdgjshhahwhdjkfkskzjflekddl

Let me phrase it like this. Dunker and Lalendra are my top 2 scumreads. Kop as a priority supersedes that because it's impossible to have a read one way or the other on him right now.

[profii]

Good point on the not needing a double scum push. The first thing that springs to mind is eth0s town slip by mentioning the day chat thing. 17

While I still feel eth0s is likely town, "townslips" mean nothing and can easily be fabricated.

what made you change your mind? 29 - If I wasn't voting for you, you'd need a rather good explanation to stop me after that.

[profii]

After a quick skim of the thread, I think there is a distinct difference in Thor vs Saucy and Acryon vs Saucy.

I felt that Thor spent his time querying how Saucy applied the game logic and tried to make scum cases that way.

I felt that Acryon attacked Saucys toxic character more than his gameplay. Given Saucys toxicity was apparent very early on I'm going to...

Interesting. Would you mind linking to the posts where you think I was focusing more-so on his toxicity? I actually searched my posts for words like 'toxic', 'jerk', 'rude', and didn't find any, so I'm thinking you're misremembering. But I'm happy to hear you out if you find evidence to the contrary.

Just so it's clear, I'm voting eth0s because he's the most fakely active player in the game and the claim to explain why the Sauce wagon is bad is just as fake active. He flipped town, we know it's bad - that helps us find scum how exactly?

His ISO is pretty much a case study in active lurking, although I'm not convinced that's scum here.

the point was more asking eth0s do you think dunkers would be audacious enough to say he is wary of FL and then NK him or does he like to be subtle as a scum player.

You've gone down this line of thinking a few times profii, and I think it's fairly dangerous. Unless you have some heavy specific experience to suggest otherwise, we should be operating under the assumption that anyone is capable of anything.

Dunker and Lelendra are top 2 scumreads for me. I think Kop needs some heavy pressure today or we're going to be stuck with a nullslot that haunts the rest of the game.

VOTE: Kop

Point 2 - fair enough, it was gut feeling so I will find some evidence to backup my claim and if I can't i'll happily retract that, but I think I'll be able to make my point.#

point 3 - let's push him into contributions, the dunker enquiry is a good place to start imo

point 4 - last game I played I did the same thing. Chumba held the same opinion as you, then at the end eth0s recalled dunkers lynched the person because it would direct the town at a mislynch - I called it out and everyone stayed the flip away from it. (then the player replaced out and the replacement acted like a tool to get themselves lynched)

I'm in agreement that gamblers fallacy is in effect with that theory, but without us following a cop, this game is about taking risks on what we believe about what other people are saying. I believe that is a huge risk for scum!dunk, so until the day pans out I'm starting from a town lean. It's no big thing, I just thought it was worth consideration

[acryon]

Good point on the not needing a double scum push. The first thing that springs to mind is eth0s town slip by mentioning the day chat thing. 17

While I still feel eth0s is likely town, "townslips" mean nothing and can easily be fabricated.

what made you change your mind? 29 - If I wasn't voting for you, you'd need a rather good explanation to stop me after that.

What changed my mind is that on page 2 of the game, the bar for giving someone credit for towniness or scuminess is significantly lower than it is on page 36. That's enough for me to move on from him and focus elsewhere at that point in the game, but at this point in the game I think we're beyond giving credit for it.

I'm in agreement that gamblers fallacy is in effect with that theory, but without us following a cop, this game is about taking risks on what we believe about what other people are saying. I believe that is a huge risk for scum!dunk, so until the day pans out I'm starting from a town lean. It's no big thing, I just thought it was worth consideration

Fair.

[Lalendra]

> dunker and lalendra are my top2 scumreads
*doesnt vote either of them*

dkskdkskkakdgjshhahwhdjkfkskzjflekddl

I'm also curious about this. Wouldn't it be better to go after your scumreads instead of someone who is just lurking?

I'm still giving some serious side-eye to dunker. Can't tell if I think his playstyle is scummy or if I just don't like it but something rubs me the wrong way.

VOTE: dunkerdoodles

[Lalendra]

> dunker and lalendra are my top2 scumreads
*doesnt vote either of them*

dkskdkskkakdgjshhahwhdjkfkskzjflekddl

Let me phrase it like this. Dunker and Lalendra are my top 2 scumreads. Kop as a priority supersedes that because it's impossible to have a read one way or the other on him right now.

Not sure I agree with this logic, I'd rather death tunnel someone I am sure is scum than pressure a lurker who is null. I doubt that he will respond to it.

[acryon]

> dunker and lalendra are my top2 scumreads
*doesnt vote either of them*

dkskdkskkakdgjshhahwhdjkfkskzjflekddl

Let me phrase it like this. Dunker and Lalendra are my top 2 scumreads. Kop as a priority supersedes that because it's impossible to have a read one way or the other on him right now.

Not sure I agree with this logic, I'd rather death tunnel someone I am sure is scum than pressure a lurker who is null. I doubt that he will respond to it.

Well I'm not sure you're scum. Lurkers are horrific for town for the reason you mentioned: they sit at null for everyone. And we have a whole day. There is plenty of time to pressure Kop to give some activity and get back to you and dunker if they look good.

[Kop]

At this stage I'm happy to vote for Eth0s or Lallendra.

I don't know what Eth0s is aiming to achieve from his apparent homework over the entire sauce wagon. The only thing we have achieved with it, it's a bad wagon.

Eth0s if you believed it was a stupid lynch, why weren't you vocal about it at the time? I looked through your ISO and you only said that sauce isn't scum but if he is he is terrible at it. But then go on to say your glad he's getting lynched. If you genuinely believed it was a bad lynch, surely you would actually be actively trying to show it was a bad wagon, rather than doing it the next day in a scenario of I told you so, because your homework is going to do jackshit unless you can actually pin point who the possible scum were on the wagon. But we are still waiting a day later so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer to actually see what this homework is going to do.

VOTE: Eht0s

[Thor665]

So I'm curious, now that you want to lynch Kop - is this a standalone scumread on Hyung/Kop, and if so or if not - how did the Sauce flip affect it?

The Sauce flip affected it in the way I already described, wherein I don't think both scum were needed to lynch Sauce.
Am I losing you on that description somehow?

Your Eth0s vote, now, by your own admission, is intrinsic upon a theory expection of an analysis he hasn't done yet. That's thin.
WHat's your take on Kop slot?

[Kop]

Very softly increasing my town read on Dunk and Eth0s.
Don't see much action from Lalendra.
But maybe she's townish too due to lack of action and being the counter? Eh, it's more vague there, but I don't see a particularly high value in Eth0s or Dunk scum going to start a counterwagon on her towards the end, moreso for Dunk than Eth0s as he also wasn't mindful of being on a mislynch wagon.

So probably one scum in acryon, rb, Dunk, Lalendra, profii
I don't think Sauce would require a double scum push for a lynch.
So we have eth0s and Kop as high odds for 1 scum amongst them.

VOTE: Kop

You were active at night because you weren't replaced.
How was the scum QT

Good point on the not needing a double scum push. The first thing that springs to mind is eth0s town slip by mentioning the day chat thing. 17

After a quick skim of the thread, I think there is a distinct difference in Thor vs Saucy and Acryon vs Saucy.

I felt that Thor spent his time querying how Saucy applied the game logic and tried to make scum cases that way.
I felt that Acryon attacked Saucys toxic character more than his gameplay. Given Saucys toxicity was apparent very early on I'm going to...

VOTE: Acryon

on the basis that he was trying to defame Saucy to create the mislynch.

I like to try and think about why scum lynch particular people, I think Jodaxq was a victim of her own sound logic after replacing in for FL. She was quite universally town read so a fairly under the radar kill.

That shouldn't be seen as a townslip. It's NAI.

I play a lot over on another site, and often than not, the early questions is if scum have day chat, or someone pointing out to it. It's one of the easiest things to fake to make it look like a town slip.

It can come from either scum, or town.

[profii]

@ Acryon - also fair.


@ Kop - I think he means IRL homework as apposed to reading up on how a lynch happened etc.

Pedit: Until this site I've never played where scum didn't have day chat so I guess I could be over reaching

[Kop]

@ Acryon - also fair.


@ Kop - I think he means IRL homework as apposed to reading up on how a lynch happened etc.

Pedit: Until this site I've never played where scum didn't have day chat so I guess I could be over reaching

Yeah, misread it.

Take away the homework part of it, any explanation isn't really going to alter anything about the Sauce wagon tbf.

[acryon]

@ Acryon - also fair.


@ Kop - I think he means IRL homework as apposed to reading up on how a lynch happened etc.

Pedit: Until this site I've never played where scum didn't have day chat so I guess I could be over reaching

Yeah I could be wrong, but from my experience on this site, scum only have night-chat more often than not.

[acryon]

@ Acryon - also fair.


@ Kop - I think he means IRL homework as apposed to reading up on how a lynch happened etc.

Pedit: Until this site I've never played where scum didn't have day chat so I guess I could be over reaching

Yeah, misread it.

Take away the homework part of it, any explanation isn't really going to alter anything about the Sauce wagon tbf.

Since your slot was more or less gone the entire first day, can you give us a readslist?

[Kop]

Up to now;

Town reading RB, Thor

Slight town read on Acryon, Profii,

Slight scum read on Dunk,

Scum reading Lalendra, Eth0s

[Dunkerdoodles]

hi sorry im back

[Dunkerdoodles]

Well since neither are suspecting each other:

- eth0s how is Dunkers town this game, and why?
- Dunkers, same about eth0s

eth0s is playing similar to a scumgame i just played with him
VOTE: eth0s