Mini Normal 1984: Big Brother is watching.. [END GAME]

[profii]

@profii am I playing similarly to either of our last games (where I was scum)?

If not, what do you think about Dunkers saying I am?

I've just cast my eyes over your ISO again.
I would say no to matching last games play actually, you seem to be going in random directions, whereas in the last game, this was less apparent, but as you mentioned in this thread, when you are scum, you know the answers.

Also, I noticed I pushed you for 2 town reads just to get something out of you. Then you asked someone else for 2 town reads.

Overall, I would probably suggest you are not sure how to dig the scum out, the point I'm making about you copying my questioning tactic is that you seem to want to try anything to try and help, but maybe you are just not sure how to find a scum?

Someone could easily WIFOM that and say by mirroring someone you know is town, that player might town read you (which to be fair I have done)

I know that sounds a bit condescending (sorry) but for me it looks like you have no idea who the scum are so I'm kinda town leaning a bit.

[rb]

Profii is likely town

[profii]

@Kop - you've spoken about eth0s but can you go into your scum read on Lalendra in more depth for me please?

A few players have said she is lynchbait naturally, were you aware of this and assuming you've seen those posts or were aware, what puts her beyond lynchbait into full scum read as opposed to your slight read on dunk?

ta

[acryon]

[spoiler="Large profii Post]

Acryon- i promised a re-read, there were some posts where you were quite involved in Sauce and called him weird or scummy without any reasons, but in your ISO there is plenty of reads so I'll retract.

I think Lalendra summed up my point more succinctly than i can in 253

UNVOTE: Acryon



I did give some thought to Thor's suggestion that the scum split their votes on and off the lynch and I'm not sure I'm on board. I think scum NKs fall in to 3 categories:
1. Vote conservatively where it makes it hard for town to associate the kill with any player - usually this is very town read players.
2. Vote to try and direct a mis lynch. So, someone mentioned Lalendra scum read FL - maybe the scum want us to go there given Lalendra is getting a lot of lynchbait reads anyway and we just lynched someone for being toxic.
3. Vote someone who is a threat to scum. High risk because the link might be there, but the player must have either read the scum correctly or given away a PR breadcrumb or something like that.



Now, considering the game has 10 people, we know we needed 6 to lynch. Discount the victim, we need 6 of 9 players to be in agreement. Discount both scum and that's 6/7 players to mislynch. This would be tough for scum, so for me 1 scum is likely on the lynch. Now, that puts the math at 5/7 townsfolk to mislynch... still a bit of an ask, but they were helped by Saucy's toxicity, saying that a few players were suggesting he wasn't scum despite this, so to drive that lynch through do I think it was possible that scum went all in on the scum lynch? I do, actually.

This means 4/7 mislynching towns folk, a much more palatable proposition for scum to accomplish imo.


Now, we look at the lynch, scum picked a player not on the lynch. I think this is the least risky thing for them to do because if someone looks at the maths as per above and comes to the conclusion that 2 scum on the 6, if they kill there, its 2 out of 5, if the person who comes up with the theory is on the lynch, it then becomes 2v4 - a 50-50 chance of hitting scum, that would be great.


So i can see why the kill was kept off the lynch.


This strongly incriminates thor for suggesting 1on 1off and rushing Kop. Also, he was heavily involved in Sauce lynching, but that can't be given huge amounts of weight due to sauces own play, but never the less, i think it's a contribution.


VOTE: Thor665

[/spoiler]
I think your analysis is coming from the right place, but I think it's off-base. I'm actually with Thor on the votes. Remember that it's just as easy for a townie to genuinely get caught up in thinking someone is very much scum (speaking from recent experience here) as it is for scum to push a wagon on someone they know is town. So it's

very

easy to see where a lynch day 1 is all town and one scum. And then if we're willing to accept that as a very real possibility, the rest of the logic falls apart.

On Thor specifically, his theory doesn't incriminate him. The only way his theory can help us find scum is if Thor himself flips scum and then we could be fairly confident the other scum was also on the wagon, and he was trying to lead another mislynch today.

Profii is likely town

Yes.

[Thor665]

@RB - you're saying a lot at me without saying much while accussing me of making the conversation hard, while I'm thinking it's you.
So let's reset;

1. Please in a short version, state why you scumread Eth0s

2. State your read on Kop.

Feel free to ask me anything you are being confused by.

1. Read my iso. I'm not in the habit of restating things for everyone who doesn't choose to read.
2. Townread, hyung seemed genuinely overwhelmed and Kop is playing town from my pov

Not confused by anything really, other than how you seem to not be following my thoughts on eth0s.

1. You're only confused by me not following your thoughts while remaining unwilling to restate them for clarity? Hell - just quote me the clear case. You've thrown a lot of mud at the slot, but I'm really not sure what the core bugaboo is - please clarify.

2. How is Kop playing town? He hasn't done anything but be opportunistic.

[profii]

It seems risky to me that the scum put themselves in a position where we are at a 50/50 between Kop and eth0s, it also didn't seem unreasonable that out of 6/9 lynch scum could try and get away with 2 on and blag their way through day 2.

I'm aware it's gambling again but my first preference would be not to lynch Kop and eth0s at the moment. Kop still has a way to go to move from null to town for me though. eth0s, town lean from me as per last analysis.

[acryon]

It seems risky to me that the scum put themselves in a position where we are at a 50/50 between Kop and eth0s, it also didn't seem unreasonable that out of 6/9 lynch scum could try and get away with 2 on and blag their way through day 2.

I'm aware it's gambling again but my first preference would be not to lynch Kop and eth0s at the moment. Kop still has a way to go to move from null to town for me though. eth0s, town lean from me as per last analysis.

But they only put us in that position if it's a fact that only one scum was on the wagon, which it isn't. I don't think I'm prepared to lynch off the wagon just because it's fairly likely that one scum stayed off the wagon. I think we still just have to look at scummy activity at this point.

[profii]

agree, I'm just expressing which way I'm leaning. Admit I am introducing a lot of probability into my play but I am combining that with theories on players sufficiently imo.

I am curious that I've voted Thor and suggested he is directing the lynch and he hasn't defended his 1on1off logic or even acknowledged what I've said. Concerning.

[Lalendra]

Up to now;

Town reading RB, Thor

Slight town read on Acryon, Profii,

Slight scum read on Dunk,

Scum reading Lalendra, Eth0s

This seems very safe and sheepy

[Kop]

@Kop - you've spoken about eth0s but can you go into your scum read on Lalendra in more depth for me please?

A few players have said she is lynchbait naturally, were you aware of this and assuming you've seen those posts or were aware, what puts her beyond lynchbait into full scum read as opposed to your slight read on dunk?

ta

People have stated that she does appear to be lynch bait, but I read through her ISO, and a lot of it just appears to be empty, fencesitting and only speaking about the game state rather than trying to solve the game. Her vote on Sauce is weak, and the reaction to the fake hammer, strikes me as fake, and a complete over reaction to make it look like she genuinely cared that the hammer was dropped without a role claim. I don't genuinely believe that she believed in her own case against Sauce and had to fabricate a reason to get onto the wagon, and that wasn't actually 100% base that vote on this game, it had to be based off pretty much another game, so if I had to pin point scum on that wagon, Lalendra would be the place I'd be starting at.

[acryon]

@Kop - you've spoken about eth0s but can you go into your scum read on Lalendra in more depth for me please?

A few players have said she is lynchbait naturally, were you aware of this and assuming you've seen those posts or were aware, what puts her beyond lynchbait into full scum read as opposed to your slight read on dunk?

ta

People have stated that she does appear to be lynch bait, but I read through her ISO, and a lot of it just appears to be empty, fencesitting and only speaking about the game state rather than trying to solve the game. Her vote on Sauce is weak, and the reaction to the fake hammer, strikes me as fake, and a complete over reaction to make it look like she genuinely cared that the hammer was dropped without a role claim. I don't genuinely believe that she believed in her own case against Sauce and had to fabricate a reason to get onto the wagon, and that wasn't actually 100% base that vote on this game, it had to be based off pretty much another game, so if I had to pin point scum on that wagon, Lalendra would be the place I'd be starting at.

Very happy to sheep this analysis.

It's especially interesting to see her call you out for your readslist seeming "sheepy" when her scumlist has more or less always lined up with the majority as far as I can tell.

[profii]

Cheers
I am agreeing with the fence sitting point. I called Lalendra out for not being offensive.

I also called Lalendra out for not noticing that we had answered the theme/flavour possibilities - personally I think this is a sign of someone who may know the answers to the game, who may not be reading the thread properly because they don't need to analyse every thing to try and find a slip etc.

After calling it out, the response was either naïve or waffle, but either way dubious.

Although I am hilarious, my bon jovi reference and pun are potential buddying points given that I potentially found a slip and called it


I'm going to stop now, because I'm reading the rest of the ISO with a pre-scum bias and just picking out negatives. I think this is perhaps dangerous against a player who has been called lynchbait.


PEdit, my readlist is quite opposite to Lalendra which I found quite interesting.


Scum - Thor, Lalendra

Null - rb

townlean - Acryon, Kop (just in!)

Town - Dunks, eth0s

[profii]

Maybe rb null is unfair and should be town lean.

I am still a bit worried he was quite vocal about wagons on my FL and sauce, which is why I said misguided earlier.
If that was scum!rb it would be a ballsy play, which I have no experience of scum trying, but that seems like I'm saying anti-scum rather than pro town - I know we say anti town but not pro scum a lot, this seems opposite.

I don't like meta but he does seem to be using this tactic to progress pressure on people and find out their thoughts, so maybe town lean is more appropriate than scum

(without reading ISO properly yet, still got that one to do!)

[Thor665]

I am curious that I've voted Thor and suggested he is directing the lynch and he hasn't defended his 1on1off logic or even acknowledged what I've said. Concerning.

How is it concerning?
Your case lacks logic, and no one is sheeping it, and you haven't asked me anything, so why should I address it?
Also, if you think that's concerning, then I'll note Kop hasn't addressed my case on him - so why aren't you feeling the same concerning vibe there?

[profii]

I am curious that I've voted Thor and suggested he is directing the lynch and he hasn't defended his 1on1off logic or even acknowledged what I've said. Concerning.

How is it concerning?
Your case lacks logic, and no one is sheeping it, and you haven't asked me anything, so why should I address it?
Also, if you think that's concerning, then I'll note Kop hasn't addressed my case on him - so why aren't you feeling the same concerning vibe there?

lol you really don't read the thread

you are saying high odds for 1 scum off the wagon, light town read so lets rush kop

I'm saying when you think about it, there are actually better odds in 2 on the wagon, so lets vote you.

basically we are both making exactly the same case, but framing the game in our own ways.

So if you are not addressing my post, I assume your final question is rhetorical

[Thor665]

I do read the thread, and nothing in my response suggests I don't.

I do understand your position for your case, that doesn't mean it has logic.
We are not actually making the same case, because mine involves general laws of averages and game experience and yours is based on a non-standard expectation of scum spread in addition to a paranoia case. That's the main differences I spot, feel free to point out how they're more identical than I am indicating.

No, my final question isn't rhetorical, it's serious. If you actually think lack of addressing a case that doesn't request direct addressing is an issue, why are you applying the tell to me and not to Kop? If you don't actually have an issue with it with regards to Kop, then why am I different?

[profii]

Your case is by the maths and an unexplained town read on Eth0s - Kop = scum

The only answer is to sheep my scenario and say the maths is wrong because you give nothing to react to. I wouldn’t say my probable scenario and reads are paranoid at all, what do you mean by that?

[Thor665]

I've explained my Eth0s townread.
I'll agree I haven't done it deeply, but then it's not a deep read.
I do say the "maths" are wrongbut never indicated it had to do with anything to react to and didn't complain about lack of something to react to.
I mean they're paranoid because they require a lot of 'ANDs'.

For your case to work;
Scum both had to vote Sauce.
Scum "had" (well, not really, but it is generally part of your case and is another presumption with no real basis) to opt to kill off the wagon because of this.
Scum intended to then advance a case against the people off the wagon because they had shrunk the pool and also because both of them were on the wagon.
Scum planned this at night.
No town player could post before scum to mention this idea, even though you appear aware that the idea of one off and on is fairly common.
So the first person mentioning it is scum and the above was their plan.
Ergo Thor is scum.

Very simple options to counter the logic of that case exist, ranging from, both scum weren't on the wagon, to a town brought it up first and scum just agreed with them or decided to let it run. One could even opt for the paranoia reverse, where I could claim you're scum who came up with this idea to tag the first player who pointed out correctly (or incorrectly) that scum were one on and one off.
That's why it's paranoia - lots of presumptions with no actual evidence to support any of them.
That's what I mean when I call it a paranoid case.

[profii]

I agree 1 on 1 off would be more normal

But I’d also say “normally” the remaining players would usually be split approx 50/50 on and off the wagon as well - this is absolutely not the case and warrants at least considering other possibilities.

My case is based on if scum both wagon (and I believe given the 10 player game and the flip it is quite likely) what fits. I looked at Acryon but you fit a lot better, this is based on actions you’ve taken in the game that I’ve mentioned

[eth0s]

@profii am I playing similarly to either of our last games (where I was scum)?

If not, what do you think about Dunkers saying I am?

I've just cast my eyes over your ISO again.
I would say no to matching last games play actually, you seem to be going in random directions, whereas in the last game, this was less apparent, but as you mentioned in this thread, when you are scum, you know the answers.

Also, I noticed I pushed you for 2 town reads just to get something out of you. Then you asked someone else for 2 town reads.

Overall, I would probably suggest you are not sure how to dig the scum out, the point I'm making about you copying my questioning tactic is that you seem to want to try anything to try and help, but maybe you are just not sure how to find a scum?

Someone could easily WIFOM that and say by mirroring someone you know is town, that player might town read you (which to be fair I have done)

I know that sounds a bit condescending (sorry) but for me it looks like you have no idea who the scum are so I'm kinda town leaning a bit.

Sheeping profii

I have scumhunting methods (completed a couple games as town already, as well) but seeing as how I am still relatively new to the site, I try to change up my gameplay at least a little bit each game, so I can find methods that work well for me. No offense taken and as long as I continue to townread you, I will be sheeping. Still, though, my scumhunting is lacking a bit in this game. The replacements and seemingly volatile voting behaviors is making it hard for me to pinpoint a good read on hardly anyone, hence the sheeping of you.

[Thor665]

I agree 1 on 1 off would be more normal

But I’d also say “normally” the remaining players would usually be split approx 50/50 on and off the wagon as well - this is absolutely not the case and warrants at least considering other possibilities.

My case is based on if scum both wagon (and I believe given the 10 player game and the flip it is quite likely) what fits. I looked at Acryon but you fit a lot better, this is based on actions you’ve taken in the game that I’ve mentioned

Yeah, nothing you're describing there actually is different than what I described your case as, is it?

[Thor665]

I suppose I didn't agree with the 'quite likely' part.
So really that's the difference.
But that would be it

[Dunkerdoodles]

VOTE: lalandra
scum

[rb]

Thor you really aren't reading the thread are you

[profii]

VOTE: lalandra
scum

tell me more, tell me more, did you get very far (with this read?)