Micro 768: Geriatric Grey Flag Nightless - Game Over

TheGoldenParadox · Post Post #325 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:40 am

i meant hapy birthday Korts :faceplant:

xRECKONERx · Post Post #326 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:41 am

I feel like...TGP knew it wasn't a hammer since Hopkirk had JUST said that.

BlackVoid · Post Post #327 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:11 am

Don't hammer just yet please. I know I'm taking way too long to catchup here and I probably shouldn't be playing mafia given lack of time and this will probably be my last game for a while. I just thought I could handle a geriatric game.

BlackVoid · Post Post #328 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:15 am

Just to motivate myself to catchup, if I've not posted in-depth thoughts and contributions by tomorrow night (~36 hours), I won't argue with the mod just straightup replacing me out.

insanity018 · Post Post #329 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:33 pm

I don't believe that TheGoldenParadox could have thought that was the hammer. There's Jingle and Hopkirk's just above which are talking about a future hammer.

I would be happy for him to be hammered.

Jingle · Post Post #330 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:40 pm

VOTE: TGP

I did his meta first. I'm gonna do some more after. BV, your request for time to catch up has been noted and promptly ignored, because there's no way in fuck you're the vengekill so delaying the hammer is

Keychain · Post Post #331 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:19 pm

Eek, it's been a while since I've posted, my apologies for that. I'm also totally fine with that hammer. Jingle when you say you're going to do more meta after, what in particular are you talking about?

In post 293, Keychain wrote:
In post 281, xRECKONERx wrote:VOTE: Korts

Been feelin' like I'm being blinded by how much I love Korts and I think his recent attack on Hopkirk was weak. And he knew it was weak. It was for show, not for real.
It didn't really look like an attack to me, it was there and gone too quick if you're talking about 275.
But it does sound like similar reasoning to what I was thinking regarding Hopkirk engaging insanity over her ignoring the formatting issue with his post. Do you have an opinion on that?

Reck your new username colour is very pretty but did you ignore this deliberately or accidentally?

Jingle · Post Post #332 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:30 pm

Notes on meta: insanity plays very infrequently, but what little stale meta I checked supports the townread. CoA, from meta I doubt the replacement is particularly AI. I can expound, but basically she got replaced out of another game near simultaneously in a game that has since ended where she was town. Hopkirk's play is not outside of his scum capabilities, but tonally I still feel an overall town lean on the slot.

That's all for tonight. I should probably do something productive today, and I'm running out of time in which to do that.

Hey Key. Diving other players. I have done so on most of the playerlist at this point, but didn't run into much worth sharing.

Hopkirk · Post Post #333 (ISO) » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:42 pm

Getting BV to take a stance prehammer was to make him take a stance, not just danger of a nightkill.
Scumflip seems likely though.

Hopkirk · Post Post #334 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:33 am

@Reckoner: Can you go through your read on Korts?

Hopkirk · Post Post #335 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:26 am

Playing around a bit with coloured spreadsheets, and I could (physically) see Korts/Void/Key.

Lord Gurgi · Post Post #336 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:13 am

Sick with flu, apologies.

Vote Count

TheGoldenParadox

[10 Posts] (5) -

Korts, Jingle, Keychain, insanity018, xRECKONERx

Hopkirk

[10 Posts] (1) -

TheGoldenParadox

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

BlackVoid

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

Keychain

[9 Posts] (0) -

None

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

(2) -

Hopkirk, BlackVoid

TheGoldenParadox has been lynched. He was a Vanilla Townie. Day 3, Four to lynch.

xRECKONERx · Post Post #337 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:17 pm

well balls.

We're in 4-3 now.

I just realized it's 3:6 and not 7:2. Which, I don't know why I thought that. I saw micro and thought "7:2" while forgetting the white flag mechanic.

I don't even know how to approach this. BlackVoid NEEDS to post.

xRECKONERx · Post Post #338 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:21 pm

Ari Lynch

Aristophanes

[5 Posts] (4) -

RayFrost

, Hopkirk, insanity018, Korts, xRECKONERx

Hopkirk

[9 Posts] (1) -

Keychain

Korts

[10 Posts] (1) -

BlackVoid

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (1) -

Jingle

[5 Posts] (0) -

None

BlackVoid

[9 Posts] (0) -

None

xRECKONERx

[9 Posts] (0) -

None

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

(1) -

Aristophanes

TGP Lynch

TheGoldenParadox

[10 Posts] (5) - Korts, Jingle, Keychain, insanity018, xRECKONERx
Hopkirk [10 Posts] (1) -

TheGoldenParadox

Korts [10 Posts] (0) - None
Jingle [10 Posts] (0) - None
BlackVoid [10 Posts] (0) - None
xRECKONERx [10 Posts] (0) - None
Keychain [9 Posts] (0) - None
insanity018 [10 Posts] (0) - None

None (2) - Hopkirk, BlackVoid

There's obvious scum within {me, Korts, Hopkirk, insanity}.

I think I'm going to be the scum push for today for hammering both wagons.
Out of those four, I'm most confident in Korts flipping scum. I'm going to ISO him first and try to find that.
Following that, I'll be doing an ISO of Hopkirk. Also may do a larger VCA for my own sanity. Note that I don't use VCA to say "this person is scum due to voting patterns", I use it as a way to summarize the game's narrative and help me build ISOs.

xRECKONERx · Post Post #339 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:08 pm

Spoiler: D1 VCA for my records

I DO NOT WANT ANYONE TO RESPOND TO THIS. I WANT PEOPLE TO DO THEIR OWN ANALYSIS AND LET ME SEE WHERE THEIR HEAD IS AT.

We know that the RF/TGP slot was town. Therefore, the wagon on Ari was started in earnest. I am going to look at two possible scenarios:
- Scum helped fuel the town-driven mislynch [Hopkirk, insanity, Korts]
- Scum sat in the shadows and watched town cannibalize themselves [Keychain, BV, Jingle]

There are three scum within this pile. Let's break it down.

If scum helped RayFrost drive the Ari wagon..

In #24, insanity has a townlean on Aristophanes (no reasons given).
In #29, CoA/Hopkirk defend calling Jingle town (CoA notes, here, that they only said they

liked

Jingle, not that they called him town.) <---

scum association b/t Jingle/Hop

Also in #29, CoA/Hopkirk blankly call out insanity for townreading Arisophanes, but do not question insanity's townread on me. Not sure what to make of this, other than them not wanting to go against me since I had already called CoA "scumtacular".
In #35, insanity says CoA is the most scummy player in the game. (Does not vote CoA.)
Also in #35, insanity explains the townread on Ari. Seems fine.
In #36, insanity votes CoA and makes a case on the slot. (Townpoints for this IMO. Said CoA was scummy, then went back and made a case after rereading.)
In #40, Jingle walls at CoA but in the end, the entire post doesn't do anything. It's a lot of fence sitting and no real commitment to reads.
In #41, RayFrost points out that LB (now Blackvoid) keeps answering for Jingle, and Jingle keeps answering for CoA. <---

scum connection b/t BV/Jingle and/or Jingle/CoA

In #51, CoA calls Ray's 41 LAMIST by kinda dismissing it.
In #52, insanity is still hammering hard on CoA.
In #55, I note to myself that Ari could be in my blind spot for townreading me early. (Guess I was wrong.) I'm still scumreading Jingle & Ray (oops on #2, I can't be wrong on all three, can I?)
In #58, Jingle points out that me/Korts aren't scum together. (Possible Jingle-Korts scumpair? Easy to setup a lynch on me if needed, or a way to hedge bets against a scumbuddy.)
In #59, Korts posts his notes and points out that Luca (BV) supports Jingle's "Reck/Korts aren't scum together" analysis, while also wanting to push me/Korts as a scumpair. More points for scum-BV?
(General note: Korts has basically invoked my name a few times in his notes without ever interacting with me. What the fuck? His notes on me are just quick blurbs. Is he trying to stay under my radar? I don't THINK that Korts fears me as town, if he's scum, so Idk what to make of this.)
In #70, CoA reminds Korts to respond to her posts. (Slight townread for this?)
In #78: Jingle casts shade at Keychain, but ultimately ignores it to vote Ray. Instead, begs Keychain to "get her sea legs" and "wow me". (Leaving the door open to bus if necessary and setting up appropriate towncred?) <---

scum connection between Jingle/Keychain

In #89, Jingle uses meta to cast Aristophanes as scum. This comes just after also casting Keychain as scum. Does not vote Ari, instead leaves vote on Ray. Also, perhaps most weird to me, Jingle gets sorta overdefensive and hyperconcentrated on the vengekill aspect of the game? I wasn't even taking that into account yet, it seems like LAMIST but in reality I think scum would be more focused on the vengekill mechanic and thus more likely to mention it in this context.
In #96, Jingle now begs Ray to come back and talk to him because he's lonely. Weird interaction for someone you supposedly are voting and are sure is scum? So sure, in fact, that you have ignored two other (arguably stronger) scumreads to leave your vote on him.
In #115, Korts starts to back off of his Jingle read but leaves it as fence-sitting. Wants Jingle to condense/simplify? (Pings me as scum looking for a reason to wagon jump. Can actually see this convo in the scum PT going "Hey, I wanna join you and back down, gonna throw this out there.")
In #118, I note that the Hopkirk/CoA replacement seems scummy.
In #119, RayFrost swings the momentum onto Ari with a case.
#120: I feel like Hopkirk's introduction is scummy. Sets up for Ari scumread by disagreeing with me. Overly defensive to my #118 where I say the replacement is scummy. Tries to dismiss it. Ends up listing me/Korts/insanity/ari as scum, votes Ari. This is really opportunistic, esp since his Ari read is given faux-context where it looks like he's part of a reads list but the other reads on that list are barely mentioned compared to the Ari stuff. ALSO: weird moment of saying "oh ya these names are in a random order! on purpose!" like he's trying to preemptively defend himself (interesting that he still lists Ari first).
#121: Hopkirk votes Ari in his second post despite listing his scumreads all together.
#129: Jingle's overblown fear of Ari selfhammering seems completely unfounded and is just fearmongering.
#136: What the fuck, insanity just emptyvotes Ari? Ari was a townread... then she called him out for still having an RVS vote on me, says he's waffling, and BLAM we flip a townread into the strongest scumread out of nowhere. Wowee zowee. Maybe insanity was in my blindspot?
#141: Jingle defends the replace out and dismisses my read of the Hopkirk replacement as scummy. <---

chainsaw defense? potential Jingle/Hopkirk pairing

#144: Hopkirk goes "oh yeah the meta on Ari is good I want to lynch him more now" then moves on. Definitely adding fuel to the wagon.
#161: Korts now joins the Ari wagon saying "I'm on board" but noting he's not comfortable with Jingle's attitude.
#194: TGP comes in and doesn't like the Ari wagon, so he votes Hopkirk instead (points out Key+Hop is the scumteam).
#205/220: Insanity says it feels like TGP is hedging bets on Ari. I agree. Interesting now that those two have flipped town...
#222: And Jingle is suddenly on board with the Ari wagon? Big flip. Why now?
#225: Jingle encourages me to hammer.

Coming out of D1, Jingle is my top scumread. I believe his shade-throwing while ignoring his "top scumreads" to vote Ray all day, then the last second push onto Ari, is disingenuous. I think his most likely partner right now is Hopkirk. Unsure on the third option: could be Keychain or BV, with an outside chance of being Korts. Don't wanna speculate too much on that, though, because finding two is what's most important, and if we get a scumflip tons of stuff will be seen in a new light.

I'll move on to D2.

Korts · Post Post #340 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:23 pm

Fuck, okay.

In post 338, xRECKONERx wrote:I think I'm going to be the scum push for today for hammering both wagons.

If anyone uses this argument, they would be only incriminating themselves. Both wagons were completely justified and uncontested, and both were basically in service of moving the game forward. We have not had enough activity for competing wagons, unfortunately, and that has stunted our progress.

I will try to make a similar analysis to yours tomorrow, depending on how much work I have during the day. If not, it will happen over the weekend.

xRECKONERx · Post Post #341 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:33 pm

@Mod: Requesting replacement on BlackVoid.

He has posted 3 times since Jan 20th, which was his first post.
That means in 12 days he posted 3 times. That's more than the 48 hours necessary for each post.
Rules state after 3 prods someone will be replaced.

insanity018 · Post Post #342 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:03 pm

I am going to do a reread and/or look at ISOs over the weekend.

In post 335, Hopkirk wrote:Playing around a bit with coloured spreadsheets, and I could (physically) see Korts/Void/Key.

This was posted before the mod posted the flip. Did you no longer see TheGoldenParadox as scum?

BlackVoid · Post Post #343 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:45 pm

Here and catching up now.

@Jingle, the main reason I didn't want a hammer was that I wanted to read up on TGP so I could decide whether to go along with it or argue for an alternative. Wanting to get my thoughts in in case he was scum and I was vengekilled was secondary. But now that you brought it up, why did you think that I was an unlikely kill? Killing a player who hasn't posted anything is actually a good strategy for scum because the player might present a new, unbiased perspective of the game. I once replaced into a newbie game the night before lylo and got nightkilled before I could post because the last mafia member didn't want me to shake up the gamestate. Even if you did think that, I still feel that from your perspective, waiting for me to take a stance on TGP before he was flipped would help you get a better read on me after seeing the flip.

Hopkirk · Post Post #344 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:43 pm

I need to do a full reread, but right now I'm struggling to see any scumteams without Korts. Currently thinking Korts/Reckoner/BV.

In post 342, insanity018 wrote:I am going to do a reread and/or look at ISOs over the weekend.

In post 335, Hopkirk wrote:Playing around a bit with coloured spreadsheets, and I could (physically) see Korts/Void/Key.
This was posted before the mod posted the flip. Did you no longer see TheGoldenParadox as scum?

That team was based on that thing. I'm leaning slightly more toward Reckoner that Key.
TGP was about 50-50 whether he flipped scum or not. Made sense to lynch either way since he's got good odds of being scum, but if he's town I'd expect us to always lose the lylo.
The difficulty of the TGP lynch, and to some extent the Ari one, somewhat implicated BV.

Hopkirk · Post Post #345 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:52 pm

@Everyone:

Both end of day votecounts are wrong. It was brought up earlier that Jingle was one of the people voting Ari (and ray/TGP wasn’t), but the VCs were not fixed. The order is slightly wrong for the second one. Don’t try and do VCA from the current VCs

@Reckoner: why is there ‘obvious scum’ within ‘{me, Korts, Hopkirk, insanity}.’ If you’re looking at the first wagon, Jingle was as much in support of it as anyone, and BV-scum would explain how it took so long.

Also @Reckoner: you

didn’t

hammer both wagons. Jingle hammered TGP.

Haven’t gone through Reckoner’s day one analysis yet.

BlackVoid · Post Post #346 (ISO) » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:59 pm

@Hopkirk, how exactly did you come to the conclusion that the "difficulty" of the wagon/reason it took so long implicates me? Can you also expand on your Korts/Reckoner theory? Those two are people I have as probably not scum together.

xRECKONERx · Post Post #347 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:10 am

@Mod: really need you to fix those VCs please.

Jingle · Post Post #348 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:38 am

In post 335, Hopkirk wrote:Playing around a bit with coloured spreadsheets, and I could (physically) see Korts/Void/Key.

Elaboration?

In post 345, Hopkirk wrote:@Everyone: Both end of day votecounts are wrong. It was brought up earlier that Jingle was one of the people voting Ari (and ray/TGP wasn’t), but the VCs were not fixed. The order is slightly wrong for the second one. Don’t try and do VCA from the current VCs

There's an accurate end of Day 1 VC in my ISO. I'll do a page by page Votecount-in-a-Spoiler for people what wants that sorta thing when I wake up, but I've had 2 hours of sleep in 48 hours, so...

In post 347, xRECKONERx wrote:
@Mod: really need you to fix those VCs please.

Eh. I don't think he does. If you can wait less than 24 hours I'll give you a better list of VC's to work from than we have.

In post 343, BlackVoid wrote:Here and catching up now.

@Jingle, the main reason I didn't want a hammer was that I wanted to read up on TGP so I could decide whether to go along with it or argue for an alternative. Wanting to get my thoughts in in case he was scum and I was vengekilled was secondary. But now that you brought it up, why did you think that I was an unlikely kill? Killing a player who hasn't posted anything is actually a good strategy for scum because the player might present a new, unbiased perspective of the game. I once replaced into a newbie game the night before lylo and got nightkilled before I could post because the last mafia member didn't want me to shake up the gamestate. Even if you did think that, I still feel that from your perspective, waiting for me to take a stance on TGP before he was flipped would help you get a better read on me after seeing the flip.

1. There were 6/8 people who had already weighed in and said they wanted the lynch. Our biggest problem has been a consistent town apathy preventing us from organizing. I frankly don't think there was a sequence of words you could have said other than "I am scum, please lynch me" that would have derailed that lynch, and there was a definite drawback to waiting.

2. There are universal (or near enough so as not matter) townreads. You have been 'in the game' for weeks. Killing a no content slot is literally only optimal if there is absolutely no one working to solve the game, or if the slot has never had suspicion. Scum only gets to kill if someone pushes through a lynch on them. I could keep going, but scum TGP taking a potshot at you there would have been the equivalent of gamethrowing, and I'd like to point out that I'm never really worried about scum gamethrowing.

3. What stance could you have possibly taken that would have given me any information about you at all, when literally every other player was already approving of the lynch? Catchup posts are incredibly easy to fake, and any argument you used would have been a ball of WIFOM that boiled down to "The associatives here matter way more anyway."

Lord Gurgi · Post Post #349 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:58 am

VCs fixed (I think, let me know).

Regarding BlackVoid here is my ruling: On the basis that I failed to prod him last time before attempting a replacement, I will rule that he has no more prods remaining. I won't replace him now, but will if he fails to post in a 48 hour period.