Rocky Horror Picture Show - players suck, game over

[Vecna]

Because my many games playing with creature, gives me the ass-crack-itch feeling that he's trying really hard to apply his well-known "Blurt every random thought that comes to mind out into the thread" to appear like his usual town meta.....but his actual messages dont feel like town-creature but "forced" creature trying to appear like something he is not.

Yes, its a gut feeling. Im sure youre used to my crap by now.

[Vecna]

Also, Chickadee, my plan only works when im in charge.

Its because of the * ~ \ - ULTRA SECRET COMPONENT THAT IM HIDING - / ~ *

Im da boss

[Vecna]

Good news everyone!

Its Vecna Math time, here to explain you how this game works, and how we, the survivors win.

IVE ADDED PICTURES BELOW. OF NUMBERS. TO MAKE IT EASY FOR YOU

https://imgur.com/a/c80Qh

This table is very straight forward. It shows:

Give immunity to one person every night without them being recruited, and we win.

Its that simple. If we come up with a strategy to do that, the cult can never outnumber us. The assumption ive made here is that we have 2 recruitment immune people to start with. Given the movie this makes sense? Theres two main characters and two evil professors, so im assuming those two will have guns or w/e to kill the professors.

Obviously, the above picture is the best case scenario for survivors, in that never any of their immune people get stolen. It also assumes the cults NEVER try to recruit a person already in the other cult. It also doesnt account for people dying due to potential vigs (I have no idea if theyre actually in the game, but it would make sense).

HOWEVER - If we make it hard enough for the cult to guess who will become the immune person, the vigs know which people not to shoot, and theyre only going to be shooting in cult members or survivors that are not immune yet.

Even if a cult manages to snag a member that is thought to be immune, it does not matter so much if we stick to this plan. The pool of potential cult masters is being reduced on a daily basis, and all shots should be aimed for cult masters regardless.

[Vecna]

Some more very rudimentary statistics

https://imgur.com/a/pk1Oa

Most of these numbers are still assuming we make one person immune per day, and the cult doesnt fuck up recruiting people at the start of the game (although it also shows their odds of failing to recruit).

I cba running more scenario's where these things deviate, but the important take away is:

OUR VOTES MATTER A LOT

DOING SHENANIGANS SO CULT CANNOT PREDICT WHO GETS IMMUNITY IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT

The more people we can get immune, the higher the odds are that our vig(s) will shoot the cult masters

The more people we can get immune, the smaller the pool for possible recruitments, and the higher the possibility that one cult will try to recruit members from the other.

Also, the vig should remain hidden. We have no idea what type of powers the cults can recruit, but if they were to recruit a roleblocker or whatever and the vig gets roleblocked every night, our odds of winning decrease significantly.

[Creature]

Okay, maybe I should play to the cult immune people for now otherwise I'll go crazy.

[Lifthrasil]

I can be your buddy.

Who is my buddy?

Either everyone who is a neutral survivor - or everyone in your cult. So, which one is it?

You are the first one to take this stance.
I don’t like it. Your perspective feels off. You jumped up to vig target #1

D I S A G R E E
What's scummy about having original thought?

It’s not that it’s original it’s the mind set of it.

When I asked who wants to be my buddy people said “me”. My POV it looks like I’m alone and don’t want to be.

His perspective wasn’t that. His was “you are neutral or cult.” That just felt like a different perspective from a neutral who is all alone looking for a buddy.

Well, might I ask you to read the game description again? You ARE either neutral or cult! You cannot be anything else. And right now with your twisting and bread-crumbing to have a PR (no, please don't make that a real claim, it's much to early to claim), I'm leaning that you are cult.

Vecna's plan to bring two people to L-1 and force the CL's to make a decision doesn't read that bad, actually. It only hinges on the one in charge not being a CL himself. And it would be sensible play for a CL to suggest exactly such a play, putting himself in charge. Then again, the only person a 'town' or rather neutral person can trust is oneself as well. So the fact that Vecna tries to put himself in charge doesn't necessarily mean he's a CL, but as of now I don't trust him enough to go along with the plan.

One thing occurred to me: vote hopping might actually not be bad in this game. The play phase ends when someone reaches majority. So the CLs have to decide on a recruitment target before that - so bringing someone to L-1 and then hopping off, immunizing someone else might increase our chances. But this would run the danger of one CL recruiting someone who isn't at L-1 and then hammering. So probably the best for now is to immunize someone who is a good player and who feels 'towny'.

Gamma is one of the few players I have played with, so far, and seems to be his normal self as far as I can tell. Therefore:

vote GammaEmerald

Btw. I will be afk for the evening and most of tomorrow.

[SnarkySnowman]

VOTE: gamma

I'm still not sure but I feel like we are basically just playing to whatever cult we might get recruited to?

[Vecna]

There will be three factions fighting for dominance.

Disregarding all information about potential powers people might have, survivors probably have the best odds of winning, IF they can create and stick to a proper strategy.

Ofcourse, given that people have no idea if or when they will be recruited, creates an......unusual dynamic

[Vecna]

The way I see it: Play to a survivor wincondition.

You might get recruited, but even if that happens your cult master might just eat a bullit at any random time, meaning your team cannot grow anymore and youre very likely to not be able to win the game.

Working as a team full of survivors allows us to take matters mostly into our own hands.

[Chickadee]

Also, Chickadee, my plan only works when im in charge.

Its because of the * ~ \ - ULTRA SECRET COMPONENT THAT IM HIDING - / ~ *

Im da boss

~*no*~

[Vecna]

Your cooperation is neither a requirement nor a prerequisite.

Im da boss by design

[Venmar]

Will go out on a limb and say Vecna isn't a CL. Those graphs and pictures look like too much work for him to be one. Also not sure how many conclusions his posts came to particularly since it's built upon assumptions that we we cannot predict, especially since the mod won't tell us if someone that we made immune is actually immune and not already a cultist. I think most of his posts on the page above boil down to: "Hey guys, lets immune people without them getting recruited!", which seems like a nobrainer thing that we want to do. Yet to see a proposed strategy to make it all work.

Also, don't forget about this caveat in the rules:

• Players will use their vote to choose who to make immune to recruiting. This can be done x# times in the game, a maximum of once per play/pause cycle - (instead of lynching - there is no lynching) !

[JaydragonKing]

Oh I'm up now by the way. Sup.

[Venmar]

Yep. Just checked my old GTKAS, and on my top 10 players, I have Varsoon.

Reasoning was “he’s everything I ask for in a player <3”.

So that means we played a good amount and got along well.

I remember coming back to the site after a big hiatus and saw all the crazy cool games you created and thought it was cool.

<3
I know we were in that one Looney Toons game maybe?
I have bad memory when it comes to mafia. Foggy.
But yeah we jammed before, I just wouldn't cult you.

'

OMG GET A ROOM

[Chickadee]

Interesting how, every time I play with Vecna he seems to get the one * ~ \ - ULTRA SECRET COMPONENT - / ~ * that makes him the boss. Again. No. Anyone who is seriously considering following him should be wary. He's not proposing we work together to solve this. He's proposing he calls all the shots.



@Venmar, why did you point that out? All it means is that we can make one person immune each day. Exactly one per cycle.

[Venmar]

• Players will use their vote to choose who to make immune to recruiting.
  This can be done x# times in the game, a maximum of once per play/pause cycle
  - (instead of lynching - there is no lynching) !

Bolded.

Additional quote from singups thread:

There is a limited # of times players may be voted to immunity, but that # is hidden due to the fact that the information could be used to track. This means that, likely, at a certain point the vote for immunity mechanic will no longer be ieffective but I will not take it out of the game so there is no indication of the pace of effective immunization.

Basically means that Vecna's plan will at some point fail since immunizations at literally any point in the game can stop being relevant. For all we know we only have 1 immunization, there's no way to know at the moment.

[Chickadee]

The number of times players may be voted, makes me think we shouldn't for instance, try to immunize the same person more than once.

[Vecna]

I think that number is probably just there to punish us if we suck at finding the cult masters Venmar. As in, we dont win by default if we get 7 people immune (and can continue to get more people immune) while failing to murder the cult masters.

After a while the pool of recruitable players for the cult will become so small, so if we can keep immunizing players, they no longer have a way of winning, while theyre still alive and kicking.........which would be a weird type of stalemate to achieve.

Drealmerz probably ran some numbers and decided on a number so that cults have a realistic chance of winning if we do not kill their leader.

My strategy should still work, and is probably still somewhat close to optimal.

I agree with some people that stated doing a double wagon towards L1 is probably too risky.

Running up wagons to L2 and having a few people designated as the "HAMMER-COMMITTEE" that decide whether its time to hammer someone in lightning speed, or run up a new wagon, is probably the way to go.

And yes Chickadee, I dont need to be the lone dictator (or even part of it), but it would be nice to at least have some people do it that understand the theory behind the reasoning as to why we need to do this, and to be able to make the right call at the right moment.

[Vecna]

• Players will use their vote to choose who to make immune to recruiting.
  This can be done x# times in the game, a maximum of once per play/pause cycle
  - (instead of lynching - there is no lynching) !

Bolded.

Additional quote from singups thread:

There is a limited # of times players may be voted to immunity, but that # is hidden due to the fact that the information could be used to track. This means that, likely, at a certain point the vote for immunity mechanic will no longer be ieffective but I will not take it out of the game so there is no indication of the pace of effective immunization.

Basically means that Vecna's plan will at some point fail since immunizations at literally any point in the game can stop being relevant. For all we know we only have 1 immunization, there's no way to know at the moment.

Also, whatever that number is, is irrelevant.

My plan is only designed to maximize the number of imunities that we do have to be maximally beneficial for the survivors, and increase the odds that cults try to recruit members from the other cult.

[Chickadee]

And yes Chickadee, I dont need to be the lone dictator (or even part of it), but it would be nice to at least have some people do it that understand the theory behind the reasoning as to why we need to do this, and to be able to make the right call at the right moment.

I completely understand the theory. What I am opposing is the plan maker putting themselves in charge of the final say.

[Venmar]

Honestly, the more I think about it, how important or necessary is it really to try go through all of the hoops of trying to trick the CL's into not recruiting our immunisation targets? The people that we vote to make immune might not even be in a CL's best interest to recruit in the first place. In a hypothetical scenario if we were trying to immunise a player that is 98% good, what would stop a CL from just recruiting a player that is 99% good because that's more productive? It seems like a lot of effort, there's really no way of knowing what the CL's will do, or the results of our immunisations, (if someone is recruited despite us voting them immune they're not going to tell us the former), and smart CL's might not even be fooled by any wagon shenanigans that we conjure up. It most importantly doesn't even deny them a recruitment, they can just recruit someone else.

[Almost50]

Why is this the first time you're calling this out? I specifically asked Gamma about it, and mentioned I didn't;t have a wincon. Creature came in and said he didn't have one, at which point I again mentioned in more concrete terms I didn't have one.

You're my scum partner, so I wouldn't explicitly call for you to be vigged.

[Almost50]

someone get GBT pls

Great Britain??

[timewarp]

hihi

[Almost50]

The straights are bad.

We need to scare them off and time warp to heaven.

Anyone who promotes anti-cult sentiment should be...shhhhhhhhhuuuuuunnnnnnnd

Anyone who tries to exclude others from the cults should be....shuuuuuuuunnnnnnneeeedddd

Anyone who wants to be excluded should be.......shuuuuunnnnnnnnned

Recruit me and we will help build...the perfect man!

Look at that mama, she got it sticking in the camera, man! We could have some fun.