Valentine's Dance - [GAME OVER]

[Gamma Emerald]

sorry guys, was adulting

[Gamma Emerald]

Going after aman innocent damsel in distress such as I, is a classic villain move.

I am currently the easiest target to pursue and him coming suddenly to the epiphany is not good.

mhm.........

so what SHOULD you be getting townread for?

Looks like Shiro's taking issue to a scumread? I can sorta see how you got the opposite but the action described by Shiro looks like someone's scumreading her.

[Gamma Emerald]

Something in my gut is telling me shiro isn't scum but I don't know how to explain it. And gut probably doesn't trump bad posting anyway

I mean I recall she has an active town meta? So I feel she's walking a line here.

[xRECKONERx]

i dont really care about meta

[Harambey180]

2353 posts in total. When I left yesterday it was like 2338 or so. 15 posts in the same time that in the first two days you'd have filled more than 15

pages

This game is ded.

[Gamma Emerald]

Which was it about the game stalling meaning something for the alignment of the wagon targets? If there's two wagons and the game has stalled one is scum?

[beeboy]

Harambey change your avatar back or I am policy lynching you.

[beeboy]

^ this is a joke

[Harambey180]

Harambey change your avatar back or I am policy lynching you.

Go wear such an avatar yourself. This wasn't really friendly.

Look here I made it easy. This is the website, you just have to pick your nation's flag. Then you open the avatar in a new tab and copy paste the link in your profile.
http://www.animated-gifs.eu/category_sp ... lags-boys/
There's also girls so if you want a girl flagbearer then you'll find that out soon. But get yourself an Olympic avatar.

[beeboy]

Oh that's for the Olympics I thought it was just a random guy lol, OK I am not the brightest.

[beeboy]

You should start an avatar trend!

[beeboy]

Maybe make a GD thread about it or something.

[Harambey180]

Maybe make a GD thread about it or something.

I already did.
In the GD there's the 'Want a new avatar?'- thread and so far 2 ppl have asked for a new avatar.
Maybe I should also make one where I share the avatars that I like the best but that seems doubled, and I didn't make them myself anyways so yeah...

[Harambey180]

Also as you are from Canada apparently, here's the avatar that you should use for as long as the Olympics last:
http://www.animated-gifs.eu/category_sp ... s/0034.gif

Good luck

[Shiro]

Hey my reads spontaneously change a lot. Also it was your first big post that made me townread you.

And nah i would have voted Harambe regardless.

Also i don't do catch up posts like ever.

Anti you should townread me for being cute duh

[Harambey180]

Another fun fact to keep statistics up, and to show you just how inactive you guys have been lately:

Number of posts made by everyone, excluding me, in the past 30 hours: 22.
Number of posts made in the first 30 hours of the game, including me: about 1775.

That's over 80 times more!! I hope it tells something about how active you guys have been. Not for me, I've been as active as I've always been. However everyone else started posting much less, question

@everyone

Can you explain to me why you are posting less than at the start of the game?

[Harambey180]

Also let's look at the activity overview, and who should get prodded:

Maki Harukawa: Last post is 3 1/2 days ago!! That's already more than the 3 days max you can be inactive, normally spoken this is already replacement time here.
Kagami: Last post is 2 days 21 hours ago! That's also almost 3 days...
Ellibereth: Last post is only 2 hours away from 2 days.
Dan the Man and Dunnstral have also been inactive for almost 2 days now.

That's already 5 people out of the 14 that are about 2 days or more inactive! A third!
Only 7 have posted in the past 24 hours. Exactly half of the players just didn't post for one day that they lived.

This is insanity. Do I need to become the person to remind others that they're still in this game? As the person that already considered to be out of the game?
Pretty ironic that I, the person that thought he wasn't in anymore, needs to remind others that they are also still in.

[Harambey180]

Now, let's look at the amount of posts that players made. What I've been taught is that more posts means more likely to be Town:

- People with

more than 200

posts:
beeboy - 344 posts
chesskid - 246 posts

--- Worth mentioning:

The last 32 hours he hasn't posted anything though.
Gamma - 245 posts
Firebringer - 200 posts
- People with

100-200

posts:
Maki - 168 posts

--- Worth mentioning:

Maki made 168 posts in the first 2 1/2 days and made 0 posts in the next 3 1/2 days.
Harambey - 138 posts

(139 after this post)

Antihero - 134 posts
Venmar - 134 posts

--- Worth mentioning:

Venmar's last post is 18 hours longer ago than Anti's last post.
Ellibereth - 110 posts
- People with

less than 100

posts:
Dunnstral - 83 posts
Reckoner - 61 posts
Kagami - 44 posts
Shiro - 38 posts
Dan the Man - 2 posts

(even though he replaced in later, this is still remarkable)

And how about the pairs? If we add up the amount of posts from both players in a pair, what do we see then?
chesskid + Ellibereth: 356 posts total. chesskid 136 posts more than Elli.

--- Worth mentioning:

The last post from either of these players is 1 day and 8 hours ago, from chesskid.
Dunnstral + Maki: 251 posts total. Maki 85 posts more than Dunn.

--- Worth mentioning:

The last post from either of these players is almost 2 days ago, from Dunn.
Fire + Shiro: 238 posts total. Fire 162 posts more than Shiro.
Venmar + Reck: 195 posts total. Venmar 73 posts more than Reck.
beeboy + Dan/sheep: 457 posts total. I also included sheep's posts here. Without sheep, it's still 346 posts, of which 2 are from Dan.
Antihero + Kagami: 178 posts total. Antihero 90 posts more than Kagami.

--- Worth mentioning:

Anti is confscum as y'all know. Kagami's last post is almost 3 days ago. Kagami is also the second lowest-poster if we leave Dan out.
Harambey + Gamma: 383 posts total. Gamma 107 posts more than me.

You might wonder why I also point out the difference of posts between the two players in each pair. Why do I do that? Well, if there is a scum in a pair, then most likely it is either the one with the more posts of the pair - because scum wants to have their word to say and won't let the Townie say the most - or it is the less posting player but isn't far behind on posts.
In the case that we don't have S+S pairs and only T+S pairs, then the scum probably aren't the people that post way way less than their Town-aligned partner. Of course we don't know what's going on in their PT's, but assumably the scum-player does not want their Town-partner to do all the talking. This is because either they don't know what their partner will all say and want to keep things under control by posting themselves, or they want to have influence in the game by posting but not too much.

This makes me slightly doubt my read on Shiro, because Shiro posts way less than Fire. However, they could also be an S+S pair, and then it could make sense that only one of them has the need to post. In case that they are S+S, their tactic is probably to make one of them make a lot of posts. Even when the other one stays quiet and raises suspicion, some players will probably not want to lynch them because the other one has posted a lot and that makes the other look Town-aligned. I don't know for sure but it seems like people have a stronger Townread on Fire than on Shiro.
So if Shiro is scum, Fire is likely too. I can hardly imagine Fire+Shiro to be T+S. Neither could I imagine it being S+T, because Shiro would probably out it in the open if he has his doubts on Fire. Shiro hasn't shown us to have suspicions on Fire.
This analysis could probably also be completely off. Nonetheless, I think that there's a very likely chance that one of these is scum-aligned. T+S seems impossible here because with town!Fire, scum!Shiro wouldn't be so quiet because he'd need to keep Fire under control, and with town!Shiro that would mean that Shiro would have posted much more in comparison to Fire, regardless of what Shiro thinks of Fire.

What you can get out of the info that I gave on the other pairs is up to you. I did my part with some Fire+Shiro analysis here as they're the ones in the spotlights now, so this is what I could say of them.
I might do such things about the other pairs as well if I can find time for it. Probably not, even though it's holiday time; I also have other hobbies so yeah, won't spend too much hanging out here.

[Venmar]

jesus Harambe.

i think the only noteworthy thing to point out regarding activity is that we got roughly ~3 RL days left to finish this dance and this is a setup with limited days, so some focus WOULD be great because apathy benefits scum HEAVILY in this setup.

[Dunnstral]

You might wonder why I also point out the difference of posts between the two players in each pair. Why do I do that? Well, if there is a scum in a pair, then most likely it is either the one with the more posts of the pair

So if there's scum in a pair, it's either the one who posted more, or the one who posted less. Got it

[Dunnstral]

- because scum wants to have their word to say and won't let the Townie say the most - or it is the less posting player but isn't far behind on posts.

rest of the quote

[Firebringer]

Dunnstral ur buddy is still scum

[chesskid3]

Reck talking about how the chesskid wagon stalled is hilarious when u consider there never was a chesskid wagon

I'd really much rather lynch them than fireshiro? Because Like FireShiro is an easy lynch even on dance 2 and for some reason people aren't voting Reckmar...

[Firebringer]

@mod: could we get a vc

[Harambey180]

You might wonder why I also point out the difference of posts between the two players in each pair. Why do I do that? Well, if there is a scum in a pair, then most likely it is either the one with the more posts of the pair

So if there's scum in a pair, it's either the one who posted more, or the one who posted less. Got it

Not quite.
Everyone could be scum, but according to what I think, any player that posts way less than their teammate is very unlikely to be scum. Unless their partner could also be scum, in which it could make sense that one of them talks a lot to look like a Townie. Even though the other of the two would look scummy, Town-aligned players could maybe not vote them because the other one looks pro-Town by posting a lot.
So yeah make sure that if you respond with something like this, that you read all.