Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Cogito Ergo Sum YARR!
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By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum. That's pretty good.In post 1764, Ranmaru wrote:CES: How confident are you in Eddie? Can you try harder with your reads on Shea and Lycanfire, your reasoning didn't sound convincing. What's your read on me?
I'm not sure discussing Shea or Lycanfire further is very fruitful in the absence of you identifying any concrete issues you have with my argument - I don't think I have much of an insight into their play besides what I mentioned (at most it would consist of recognising the patterns of Shea being his argumentative self) and I feel like elaborating on my argument would require me to write paragraphs about things that aren't specific to this game. We need to be moving forward (e.g. by lynching Eddie) rather than standing still.
You're my strongest town read!Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
~"Multiple exclamation marks are a sure sign of a diseased mind."~-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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Postie Any/allJack of All TradesAny/all
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Sure I'll just wait right here for that to happenIn post 1798, Ranmaru wrote:Postie, there are still other people we can get more content from, like Action Dan, Marquis, and Lycanfire.
Discourse is fleeting, but junk mail is forever.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Lycanfire Mafia Scum
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Brain is a bit full of fuck right now
Once already this morning I was phone posting something really good. I realized it didn't mesh with the conclusions I thought I was coming to. Tonight I made my thoughts more coherent and let my analysis take me to my conclusions. I'm happier than when I started, but I'd like to do some quid pro quo with Ran first.
Pretty much the circumstances of how he took Shea's pressure mixed in with a bit of Llamarble's. It culminated in posts likeIn post 1800, Ranmaru wrote:Lycanfire, you had LQ as a scum read Day 1. When and why did that change?
This is before Llamarble's game predict post where he began treating himself as already lynched. He's basically just egging it on.In post 476, LicketyQuickety wrote:It seems that I am a player who people seem somewhat polarized on. Given this, It might actually benefit Town if I am lynched, but then that takes away all my power to have an influence on the game based on my play and I think I can give Town a better chance at winning if I am not lynched. That said, if people remain to have polarizing views of me, then it's likely I will be able to stay in the game for a while because Scum will not NK someone they think they might be able to lynch. Given this, it puts a lot of pressure on me for my reads to be good and to produce good content. Most of this pressure is self induced because last time I survived to end game I used a method to try and solve the game that I put too much trust in and it ended up with me having a few of bad reads so I don't want to have another poor performance where I survive to late game to have a poor influence on helping my team win the game.
And I did really like that sod post I quoted before-
Scum love starting shit with NKs. NKA might be under-used, but it's also poorly used, and if it's a one liner at sod, it's not even analysis, it's just shit. Why does scum!LQ make this post-no, here's a better question. Why does scum!LQ make that post, at that time? If someone wants to earn towncred by making a voice of reason post, they can still let the fans be flamed by somebody else. Contributing at that moment in time was about as towniest as it was going to get-he could have done so later, and let people get tangled in bias, or let something catch on fire. Nope, it's time to proceed with day. Thank god.In post 1310, LicketyQuickety wrote:
And if I had a nickel for everytime Llama changed their scum reads I would probably have several dollars by now.In post 1309, Postie wrote:
I want to point out the dissonance in this. He implies that he strongly thinks Srceen is scum, but then says he wants to give him more time and isn't going to vote or push there.In post 1178, EddieFenix wrote:@Marble, I've got Screen in my sights for today. However, from the AtE and flailing going on, I'm willing to let the case write itself right now and give screen more time(and rope essentially) to hang themselves with it. If anything, I'm a patient man.
Like, Eddie in this post straight-up, literally, says that he wants this lynch but wants it while sitting back and letting it play out without his involvement.
Like jesus christ guys this isn't rocket scienceIn post 1007, Llamarble wrote:I didn't know it was possible to play exclusively to scum wincon so hard and not be obvscum.
I think it's Scummy af for you to try and use Llama's death to say Eddie is Scum. Llama was widely widely TR. That is why Llama was probably killed, not because of who Llama went after.
I'd like to ask you: can you explain your read on Gamma?
For everyone else: get rid of your fucking null reads. If you find someone town for X and scum for Y say it. You might not be the only one. You might be the only one, and nobody noticed X or Y. It doesn't matter if you're wrong, or hurt somebodys feelings. If some ill-fated push happens as a result, it won't be just because of you, so go ahead and reach for the stars, even if they're made of shit.-
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Lycanfire Mafia Scum
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Something I need to point out in LQ vs Postie is that my Postie read (the "fuck rc tier") basically means: the more we've normalized RC's existence in this game, the more open Postie has been in letting him influence the game by proxy. Prior to this there was some doubt over whether he was playing puppeteer or not. My main concern is my ability to read Postie is not as good as my ability to read RC.
I feel like LQ was in part complicit in this a lot like other people were
I really don't know what result you expected to have happen as a result of asking this if anything besides having RC enter the thread.In post 895, LicketyQuickety wrote:@Postie, what is RC's read on me?-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Okay so it was after this post my eyes glazed over, so I'm gonna try to analyze everything beyond hereIn post 1546, Gamma Emerald wrote:Yeah I think I am starting to make sense of it. Plus your interactions with Marquis aren't really all that solid as scum-scum interactions now that I look at them.
UNVOTE:
not gonna vote yet since I'm rather tired now
That's right I'm finally doing my readback of the day 2 stuff I ignored, plus addressing anything I forgot to do in that time. Prepare for a massive wall<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Lycanfire: Meta. Gamma as scum doesn't really have interest in posting, from what I have seen. Gamma here has been saying sensible things and putting in work. His paranoia of me earlier Day 2 was also townie, not something I'd expect from scum him. Earlier you said that my conclusion on Shea was wrong (SvS) so I want to know, how did that conclusion affect your read on Shea and why?-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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wtf is global VCA? So A50 is saying scum has been wagoning together early in all games? If that's the case there may have been some validity in me saying Dunn was wagoning Marquis even though he was the first vote. As for who would take scum, I have been doing some tracking of flips across games so maybe my team and A50 (Aero's in A50's game right?) can compare notes on who would take scum. And lol yeah my team is honestly one of the fuckiest ones if we got a scum slot cos none of us are really strong as scum, like honestly I am actually the strongest among us, I'm aware I said otherwise earlier but I checked our beginning chat at one point and feel I was wrong back then.In post 1631, Ranmaru wrote:NSG: Almost50 is thinking that team 9 got 2 or 3 scum pms, and that team 1 got 1 or 2 scum pms. He thinks it is likely that team 9 is scum in two games, and that our own team, team 15, is being eliminated from all games due to his method. He say precisely in this game, that he took a closer look at Eddie and Davsto and decided they are not scum. He thinks that the three scum in this game have come from teams with 1 scum pm each, and has cleared NSG, Davsto, Gamma, which I agree with. He came up with a pool of Lycanfire, CES, Dunn, Shea, and Marquis. I then looked at that pool and tried to see who was the most likely scum.
His reads are based on (in order from 1 to 3):
1. In-game association and behaviour
2. In-game VCA
3. Global VCA
He says Mastina has come up with a way to mess with the VCA by forming a3-Player Wagon (all scum) voting a slot early game, and he doesn't believe it is the case with Eddie. Make sure your team reads this post and please have them return a response soon. He thinks we should be working with teams 4,5,13,14 and possibly 10 but 10 is not a hundred percent. (Although I want to work with AD since he's my hydra buddy)
NSG, here is what A50 thinks are the most likely to pick scum:
1) Annen/Tbone, 2) Lycan/Eddie Cane, 5) ??, 6) CES/CDB, 7) Implosion/Marquis, 9) All of them, but Mastina and Thor already flipped, so Gingie/Bulb > Eddie, 10) AD/CK, 11) GL, 12) TSQ, 13) Chara<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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FUCK ME IN THE ASS WITH A CACTUS
ELLI CHANGED THE RULES ON ME LIKE AN HOUR AGO, WHILE I WAS STILL READING STUFF, BARRING WHAT I JUST DID
BAN ME IF YOU LIKE BUT IF YOU DO YOU'RE A PIECE OF SHIT FOR CHANGING THE GOALPOSTS<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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beeboy Survivor
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In post 12, Ellibereth wrote:RULE CHANGE:
There has been a lot of player confusion about rule 6:6. You MAY talk about the preferences and abilities of any player and speculate which game and alignment they would prefer. You may speculate about the relative strengths of teams and how they would distribute role pms. You may NOT tie this speculation or otherwise refer to ANY action a player not in your game has taken in their ongoing game.A good rule of thumb is any speculation one could have made just by seeing team compositions before the event is allowed.
To make life easier for everyone we're changing the ruleset and outright banning the things previously allowed by rule 6.
There are now no exceptions to the rule:Players are only allowed to talk about mod-confirmed things from other ongoing Team Mafia games.Any infractions to this rule from this point on will be adjudicated harshly.
Please check with your moderators and me if you have ANY doubt about whether a post is over the line.
Please do not discuss this in thread or in public until after the event. As usual, feel free to raise any questions and concerns with me in private.ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Alright here's my thoughts on the last like ten pages
Spoiler:
So I'm think the team is among LQ/Eddie/Dunn/Lycan right now from the stuff covered here. Marquis is a suspect as well based on previous events. Current solid townreads are Ran and Shea, plus I'm feeling Postie is town. CES still town. AD/Dave/nsg I haven't sorted, maybe ISOs? Also need to ISO lycan still<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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@Ranmaru, you have single handedly taken most of my motivation out of this game. I get that you are all about the details, but this kind of micromanagement of other players has got to go. Furthermore, I don't feel obligated to do a readlist every damn day.
What I do, and what I need time to contemplate, are precisely my reads. I will make a reads list when I feel comfortable making one. After I make that reads list, I will continue to read the thread and mull things over in my brain to see if I can change my perspective on any of my reads.
But so far I am thinking:
Town
v
Without having looked at a previous game of yours (Ran) I would probably say there is a lot more to back up that you are Town than Scum.
Shea's fervor for the game is also something I am reading as Townie, though tbh, I have seen him play a bit more casually as Town before. That said, in the game I saw him play as Scum he was way more low key than this. Meta reads are shit with that amount of games played with someone, but I will say Shea has also played quite Pro-Town, so that is a good reason to TR him.
GE is a similar read to Shea in both that I see his fervor and general Pro-Town mentality to mean he is Town here (or he could be power wolfing) which is what I would expect from Town!GE.
Lycan is still giving some pretty good points and I can tell he is critically analyzing the game which is a plus and show's he is giving a lot more than most of the other lurkers in this game. I think this is Pro-Town mentality so he is probably just Town.
Postie has kinda dropped off in content these last 5 or so pages, and that is concerning for me. As is, I still think that there is probably more reason to TR Postie than SR them. The one point that Lycan brought up where he quoted me saying Postie's reasons for SR Eddie with regards to the Llama kill is not bad at all however, and that gives me some pause in TRing Postie.
I am also warming up to the idea that one of CES, AD, Dunn, or Noth are Scum. They have not been engaged enough in the game which could mean Scum are feeling ok about the way the game is going/want to keep a low profile so we don't have much to go on with who Scum is. It's remarkably easy to let Town tear itself apart, at least for a few game days.
I am starting to like the idea of Scum!Eddie as well. I agree his behavior change from D1 to D2 is probably far more Scummy than Townie. Also, it seems he is trying to lurk out his wagon, which is a disgraceful way to win a Mafia game IMO.
I also see a few good reasons to SR Davsto, but this could be resolved knowing more about how he approaches the game of Mafia in general.
I am fairly sure Marquis is Scum at this point. Marquis has few if any saving graces for them being Town. The reasoning and/or evidence (or lack there of) for Marquis being Town is severely lacking.
^
Scum
So I think I should put my money where my mouth is, because people don't see to be liking my idea of making actions to produce content over most everything else, so I am going here:
VOTE: MarquisI was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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will do that after lycanIn post 1817, Ranmaru wrote:I want you to look into NSG and tell me what you think.<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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NSG's vote [#584] on Tchill was weak, and she lurked through the rest of the day. She admitted to putting the game on the back burner but she didn't really give a reason. She had no reason to put it on the back burner, no pressure. Then in her #1583 she states she is holding her vote since she realizes she didn't think too deeply on her T-chill vote. Which shows she has guilt about her vote, which seems suspicious to me. I think she is scum because she has no pro-town motivation to lurk.
Vote: Northsidegal
[Eddie > Marquis > NSG > AD | Dunn | Davsto > LQ > Lycan > CES > Shea > Postie > Gamma > Ranmaru]-
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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Your analysis sucks and your reads suck worse. I played with you in PYP.In post 1815, Gamma Emerald wrote:So I'm think the team is among LQ/Eddie/Dunn/Lycan right now from the stuff covered here. Marquis is a suspect as well based on previous events. Current solid townreads are Ran and Shea, plus I'm feeling Postie is town. CES still town. AD/Dave/nsg I haven't sorted, maybe ISOs? Also need to ISO lycan stillI was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.-
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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- Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)
Alright I remember that one now. Think I shut it out because of crap teammates. Also you gonna drink the haterade with Marq? Cos if so just like I said to her I need some backup of what you're saying. Prove me wrong if you think so strongly of it.In post 1822, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Your analysis sucks and your reads suck worse. I played with you in PYP.In post 1815, Gamma Emerald wrote:So I'm think the team is among LQ/Eddie/Dunn/Lycan right now from the stuff covered here. Marquis is a suspect as well based on previous events. Current solid townreads are Ran and Shea, plus I'm feeling Postie is town. CES still town. AD/Dave/nsg I haven't sorted, maybe ISOs? Also need to ISO lycan still
You wanna tell me how I'm doing this cos I don't think that's the case hereIn post 1823, LicketyQuickety wrote:You're also way to concerned with how people see you when you aren't being heavily SR.
Lycanfire iso in progress btw, just saw these when previewing to get to the next part of it. Damn does Lycan inadvertently wallpost<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
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