♥ ♠ Open 711: Stack The Deck - Game Over ♣ ♦

[skitter30]

Vote Count 1-8

I'm a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.

Thomas Jefferson

---

♥ Srceenplay (6)

(L-1)

: Montosh, Espeonage, Elmo TeH AzN, Almost50, Sky_Paladin, JaydragonKing

♠ Sky_Paladin (1)

: Not_Mafia

♦ UnaBombaH (2)

: the worst, legoboyvdlp

♣ mutantdevle (2)

: UnaBombaH, skitter30

♥ JaydragonKing (1)

: Srceenplay

♠ Not Voting (1)

: mutantdevle

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2018-02-02 12:00:00)

Mod Notes:

- None!

So, 7 other players, with three scum.

I believe Lego, and I think NM is town, leaving three scum in {jay, sky, montosh, nsg, and screen.}

Given the above vc and his wagon overall, I think screen is basically clear if I assume town!lego and town!nm. If screen is scum, both scum are on his wagon, and if he's town, all scum are on that wagon. So yeah this basically points to town!screen because I don't think he randomly gets bussed that hard.

Which leaves three scum in {sky, jay, montosh, nsg}, I guess in that order for me.

[legoboyvdlp]

Which backs up my townread on Srceen. I look forward to Sky's return to see what happens

[Sky_Paladin]

I return.

I'll now claim vanilla town. This was a reaction test because I wanted to see what NSG would do as I was undecided on her alignment; I was leaning scum but became concerned I had massive confirmation bias because I strongly believed NSG/Worst as a scum team due to Worsts heavy buddying and statements from NSG that I believed were harmful to town. However I did not really see what I wanted to see. I also did not expect a hard counterclaim to my soft claim so that's annoying.

I regularly crumb town power roles when I am vanilla town (you may remember my comment that if I was the vigilante I would hit Not Mafia, on day 1) in an effort to buy the night kill and rarely fake claim an innocent on a lynch that I know in my deep heart of hearts is wrong.

Late day 1 I felt confident that Worst/NSG were a scum pair but felt that due to the deadline rapidly approaching I could not risk pushing a wagon there; an undecided town with little time often quicklynches and that outcome massively favors scum. I felt that my preferred lynches of Not Mafia/Screen were not being taken up and that scum!NSG was pushing the Espeonage lynch, which was consistent with scum!NSG/scum!worst. So I decided to setup a gambit that I could execute day 2 if the night results did not contradict it.

The result was that Espeonage psuedo-claimed a guilty on Worst which was consistent with my strongly believed scum team so I decided to roll with it and save the guilty for day 3 once we had a scum flip on Worst. However that did not happen so I was ??? I cannot gambit a hard confirm guilty because now I cannot be sure that my read on NSG was simply confirmation bias based on an actual wrong read.

Then I was going away for three days and I didn't want town to hammer a no lynch that would put us in LYLO with a dead Jay who was, in my mind, the only confirmed town at this point. If scum believed I was goon cop then they might hit me even if no lynch eventuated. So I decided to go ahead with a soft-gambit because I didn't expect a cop counter-claim when that cop also didn't bring anything new to the table (no town clears, no guilties, no hard claim to counter, sigh). Oh well.

I also expected players to have gone ahead and analyse other players posts, and wanted to see more activity from Montosh/Lego to help discern alignment. EG both Montosh and Lego have posted and made some effort to solve the game, as have Skitter and NSG.
Concerningly, Jay (my strongest townread) has pretty much sat on his hands this phase and that worries me a lot. Screen/NM haven't really done anything except vote no lynch and take shots at my claim which is interesting because only scum would know if the claim was legit, except for NSG, who hasn't come out screaming that I'm wrong and is more interested in waiting to see the motivation behind it.

So I can see this coming from NSG!town, and I can also see this coming from scum!Not Mafia.

@Skitter

My post here:

It also means I tend to town read players who play/act in the same way I do, which is a weakness I am aware of but struggle to combat. The hardest scum for me to find are the ones right in the middle of poor post content and good post content - players like Espeonage/Lego/Skitter are right in my blindspot, and if any of those are actually scum, I probably won't catch them out.

Your post here:

So the thing with sky is that I kinda like their posts, and I want to townread them, but I'm aware that I have a tendency to townread a specific posting style regardless of alignment because I like the posts and the thought process behind them, and sky's posts are like right in that blindspot.

These quotes look very similar. What are you trying to achieve by this?

At this stage I am intending to vote Not Mafia and push for that as my preferred lynch this phase.

[Srceenplay]

Skitter I thought you town read me already.
That’s why you didn’t vote me.
Now you are making it sound like I’m town just from poe

[JaydragonKing]

Well, Sky, addressing the part about me "sitting on my hands", what did you expect me to do? I couldn't in my right mind try to push for Lego with your claim around even though I had really wanted to. And now that your saying your NOT Goon Cop, that complicates things,even though now I have to believe that Lego would not CC as scum with such a shitty defense. So now he's confirmed.

[JaydragonKing]

Well, Sky, addressing the part about me "sitting on my hands", what did you expect me to do?

I couldn't in my right mind try to push for Lego with your claim around even though I had really wanted to.

And now that your saying your NOT Goon Cop, that complicates things,even though now I have to believe that Lego would not CC as scum with such a shitty defense. So now he's confirmed.

EBWOP: By that I meant I trusted your claim over his. Which says a bit about all three of us if I'm honest.

[Not_Mafia]

Yeah, that you’re scum

[skitter30]

I'll now claim vanilla town. This was a reaction test because I wanted to see what NSG would do as I was undecided on her alignment; I was leaning scum but became concerned I had massive confirmation bias because I strongly believed NSG/Worst as a scum team due to Worsts heavy buddying and statements from NSG that I believed were harmful to town. However I did not really see what I wanted to see. I also did not expect a hard counterclaim to my soft claim so that's annoying.

I mean, this is kinda what I expected you to say given how the Lego claim shook out but if you're town this is like ridiculously anti-town because you just outed the cop

Also why I think that semi-claiming before v/la was scum-motivated - you had the oppurtunity to maybe claim and then let all the reactions happen so that *your* reaction could be tweaked to match how town reacted. If there wasn't a cc I fully expect that you'd have stuck with the claim. If people didn't believe Lego I also expect you'd have stuck with the claim.

Then I was going away for three days and I didn't want town to hammer a no lynch that would put us in LYLO with a dead Jay who was, in my mind, the only confirmed town at this point. If scum believed I was goon cop then they might hit me even if no lynch eventuated.

So I decided to go ahead with a soft-gambit because I didn't expect a cop counter-claim when that cop also didn't bring anything new to the table (no town clears, no guilties, no hard claim to counter, sigh). Oh well.

I mean, you could have just asked that we wait to commit to a lynch/no-lynch until you got back instead of gambling a PR claim?

Bolded: Feels really really wrong and weird and just ????

Let me try to unpack why:

a) You're basically saying that you'd have been fine if the real cop claimed if they'd had real results -> I mean you're probably getting lynched here for this. We're in MYLO so if you're town that's game. What kind of results Lego has from your POV shouldn't change that? Like unless Lego had a guilty on someone else you're pretty much always the lynch here? Like I'm saying your phrasing is weird in that you're implying you would have been OK with outing the cop if they had real results when you shoudln't be because regardless of lego's results if you're retracting the claim you're like always the lynch for kinda cc'ing the cop and if you're town you basically lost the game.

b) Like if you're town your gambit kinda screwed over town and probably lost the game given that you're likely getting lynched and your reaction is 'oh well'? Like it's missing that emotional component of 'I messed up and probably lost the game for town'. You're waaaay too blase/casual/meh about this.

EG both Montosh and Lego have posted and made some effort to solve the game,

Montosh is blatantly backing your non-claim and shading lego's, and lego's claim was blatantly obvtown and he should basically be treated as conftown imo and the fact that you're binning them in the same pile is bizarre to me.

except for NSG, who hasn't come out screaming that I'm wrong and is more interested in waiting to see the motivation behind it.

So I can see this coming from NSG!town, and I can also see this coming from scum!Not Mafia.

Given that you just gambited the game on trying to read NSG's alignment, this conclusion feels incredibly underwhelming.

Also NM is like the towniest person in the game atm and we're not lynching him today.

If it isn't you I would be OK with montosh.

Also NSG and NM basically took the same opinion on the lego thing and NSG was basically angling to wait and let you come back and scumclaim (1479), so the fact that you come out with opposite opinions on their alignments is just really weird.

Also if you're town fake-claiming a guilty on town!NSG, she isn't going to believe the claim. If you're town fake-claiming a guilty on scum!NSG, she still isn't going to believe the claim. IE if you're town from your POV she's never believing no matter her alignment so the fact that she didn't explicitly call for your head immediatley but rather wanted to wait until you committed to it shouldn't really be AI imo.

--------

These quotes look very similar. What are you trying to achieve by this?

Yeah sorry, I kinda have a tendency to use turns of phrase that express what I'm thinking well, not really on purpose. Didn't mean to do that and it doesn't mean anything in particular just that the phrasing stuck with me, sorry.

There's just a particular type of posting style that I just want to townread irregardless of alignment and I got burned this way ~two months ago (mini 1963, seph), which kinda made me aware that this is a thing I have *a lot* of trouble with, and there was another game shortly thereafter where basically the same thing happened although I ultimately had the correct read (bread upick, fish), and I'm seeing a lot of similarities between your style and the style of those players who were all scum which is why I couldn't just townbin you even though I like your posts. Like the posts are good but they don't feel *town* to me. I don't know how to explain that better.
--------

@Screen: I don't think I was explicitly townreading your play so much as I thought your wagon was gross and that you were likely town from how the wagon formed and how the gamestate stalled. And then you stopped like contributing after your wagon died mid-day1 and we're in MYLO so I feel like I need to revaluate everything. But based on how players acted today and my current understanding of the game, your wagon is still gross and you're still likely town because of it even though I don't particularly townread your play.

[Sky_Paladin]

I mean, this is kinda what I expected you to say given how the Lego claim shook out but if you're town this is like ridiculously anti-town because you just outed the cop

That's false because, as highlighted sufficiently by NSG, my claim was not a hard claim and Lego outed themselves for no reason. The rest of your post seems to be all WIFOM so I'm just going to handwave dismiss it as the rest of your post seems to hinge on the idea that I was not committed to a lynch this phase, when, uh, every single post I had made in this phase was about lynching and not no-lynching.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[JaydragonKing]

Sky, please give me/us your opinion on Lego's sadly poor results.

[Not_Mafia]

Oh Sky's back with an omgus on me, give me a moment to pick my jaw up off the floor

[Not_Mafia]

I mean, this is kinda what I expected you to say given how the Lego claim shook out but if you're town this is like ridiculously anti-town because you just outed the cop

Lego outed themselves for no reason.

lol

[skitter30]

I mean, this is kinda what I expected you to say given how the Lego claim shook out but if you're town this is like ridiculously anti-town because you just outed the cop

That's false because, as highlighted sufficiently by NSG, my claim was not a hard claim and Lego outed themselves for no reason. The rest of your post seems to be all WIFOM so I'm just going to handwave dismiss it as the rest of your post seems to hinge on the idea that I was not committed to a lynch this phase, when, uh, every single post I had made in this phase was about lynching and not no-lynching.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

?????

a) You were obviously angling to claim imo, and I posit that the way you softed had quite a lot of scum motivation and very little town motivation. At best you don't get a cc and boom, you're now a gc. At worst for scum!sky, you traded your lynch for a goon cop nk.

b) You wrote up a post earlier about if someone fake-claimed that there were *very* strong odds of being cc'd -> you knew quite well that the odds of there being a real gc was relatively high and I don't see why you wouldn't take that reasonable outcome into account before you gambitted. Like you're basically arguing that Lego is at fault for claiming when I think that a reasonable reading of your post indicates that you were planning on claiming and from his POV that means you're lying; a cc if one existed was a reasonable outcome of your gambit and I still don't see the town motivation.

c) I've never played with town!you but you *really* don't seem like the type of town-player who would just do something like this for the lols without taking into account the reasonable outcomes (ie a cc is relatively likely to exist and you might out a PR for little town-benefit), so I'm pretty sure you understand my point. I mean I'm now pretty sure that you're scum so you can't agree with me, but the fact that you're faulting lego here feels wrong from you.

d) I don't know how my post is WIFOM, nor do I believe it hinges on the idea that you were not committed to a lynch this phase; I honestly have no idea where you're getting that from because I don't believe I said or implied that *anywhere*

[skitter30]

Is there like any reason to drag this out?

[JaydragonKing]

Is there like any reason to drag this out?

Drag this out as in "Let's Lynch Sky now" or "Let's no Lynch already so this is solved"?

[Not_Mafia]

I like how Sky is still using me and Srceen advocating no lynch as a reason to scumread us, when it's now been outted as having been the pro-town play for the day. The awkward moment when you have no case.

[skitter30]

I mean I think sky is pretty blatantly scum so I'm asking if there's any reason why we shouldn't just lynch him.

And you were objecting to no-lynch at day start?

[JaydragonKing]

I'm confirming my theory right now, that's it.

Or did you forget the three people I had chose to Lynch earlier?

[Sky_Paladin]

Sky, please give me/us your opinion on Lego's sadly poor results.

I think they are basically terrible and his crumbs are awful. However, I think a REAL town cop would be more honestly likely to come forward with useless information than to come out with a miracle guilty. That's why even though I crumbed

Town was severely hamstrung by the quickhammer by Not Mafia in the previous day phase. So I can't hate Lego for not posting in day 2.

cut

Skitter I'll reply in detail shortly. But basically it hinges on there's no reason for me to, as scum, fake gambit when scum!me could have just hammered no lynch and won the game by killing town!Jay and mislynching whoever in the next day phase.

[Not_Mafia]

Town Sky doesn't admit his claim was fake and then immediately start deflecting blame to everyone else, he knows he can't win the 1v1 so has to make a bunch of excuses and try to distract people with "but it was a soft claim, lego should have waited.", "but Not_Mafia hammered", "but people wanted no lynch".

But basically it hinges on there's no reason for me to, as scum, fake gambit when scum!me could have just hammered no lynch and won the game by killing town!Jay and mislynching whoever in the next day phase.

This simply has no basis in reality, does anyone here sincerely think Sky could have easily gotten a mislynch tomorrow? It also hinges on Jay being town, which we simply have no reason to assume at this point.

[Sky_Paladin]

This simply has no basis in reality, does anyone here sincerely think Sky could have easily gotten a mislynch tomorrow?

If theoretically we no lynched this day phase, and scum!me killed town!Jay, then I would only need one wrong vote from Montosh/Lego/Skitter on town!Not_Mafia, iirc at least one of which are willing to do so.

[skitter30]

I'm confirming my theory right now, that's it.

Or did you forget the three people I had chose to Lynch earlier?

lol

Skitter I'll reply in detail shortly. But basically it hinges on there's no reason for me to, as scum, fake gambit when scum!me could have just hammered no lynch and won the game by killing town!Jay and mislynching whoever in the next day phase.

You're positing town!jay and even though you said that they did not act in a town-motivated fashion in the aftermath of your gambit.

Like the scum motivation is you winning today on a mislynch. I don't think you completely have the game in the bag on a no-lynch today, as I don't think you have an obvious mislynch tomorrow.

p-edit: yeah exactly what NM said in his last post.

p-edit #2: not policying lynching in MYLO and NM is hands down the towniest person in the game rn.

-----> One of sky / Jay is the unrecruited traitor imo, or groupscum doesn't have daytalk; the way they're talking rn feels s v s, like they're trying to coordinate and I don't think they'd be talking like that in the thread if they could talk freely elsewhere.

I feel like sky is the traitor? Like the fact that he *kinda* claimed implies he didn't know if there was definitely another PR who would cc him?

[Not_Mafia]

This simply has no basis in reality, does anyone here sincerely think Sky could have easily gotten a mislynch tomorrow?

If theoretically we no lynched this day phase, and scum!me killed town!Jay, then I would only need one wrong vote from Montosh/Lego/Skitter on town!Not_Mafia, iirc at least one of which are willing to do so.

Literally anyone can say that about any combination of players, you're literally just stating how LyLo works. That's no statement on how achievable it is.

[skitter30]

This simply has no basis in reality, does anyone here sincerely think Sky could have easily gotten a mislynch tomorrow?

If theoretically we no lynched this day phase, and scum!me killed town!Jay, then I would only need one wrong vote from Montosh/Lego/Skitter on town!Not_Mafia, iirc at least one of which are willing to do so.

Also the numbers here are weird?

If scum!you kills town!jay, tomorrow we're left with 7 - 4 town (wrong vote from montosh/lego/me on town!nm means all of us are town) and 3 scum. Like this is basically implying a you/screen/nsg team but that seems ridiculously implausible (you just tried to fake a guilty on NSG ....) so this feels like a misdirect?

Also you/screen/nsg means that the scumteam decided to randomly bus screen mid-day 1 for the lols?

[skitter30]

VOTE: Sky

Don't really see a reason not to do this tbh