Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Espeonage]

Would you engage if someone posted intent at L-1 on you?

[Not_Mafia]

I engage things I find worth engaging, regardless of the game state, unless it's LyLo and I'm at the mercy of confirmed town, then I have to go along with them

[LaserGuy]

Your perspective is wrong. For Town, the odds of hitting scum D1 in this game are ridiculously good. In a typical setup, it's like 20%. In this game, it's nearly 50%. Your comment makes sense coming from the point of view of scum, but not of Town.

Scum are not going to try and lynch their partners. With that in mind and noting that this setup is majority town means that a mislynch remains the most likely scenario Day 1. Yes, scum groups targeting each other raise the odds of a scum lynch, but nowhere near the levels you're suggesting. A cursory glance at the previous game played with this setup listed on the wiki reveal this to be the case.

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

[Espeonage]

I think that taking the stance that bussing isn't going to be a thing is a really crazy stance to take. I think that wolves are probably less inclined to bus, but I wouldn't put it past mafia to bus.
However white flag gambit is definitely a thing and active in this setup where wolves can lose with a member still alive, same with mafia who can eat a nk to lose.

:/

[Beefster]

It is opportunistic... because NM always plays like this?

What kind of answer is that? And why are you even answering for wilky?

I agree NM is null (though I'm still convinced there's a good chance of finding scum among the lurkers - even if people disagree) but how wilky jumped to that conclusion is beyond me. 2 votes is barely a wagon, and there were other choices with 2 votes too. NM can't possibly know that wilky would be the lynch today it's far too early.

I'm not answering for wilky. Where'd you get that idea? I can't really tell if the vote is opportunistic. And even if it is, I don't think it's AI in this situation.

You ask a lot of questions and I think Espeonage is onto something here.

VOTE: BuJaber

Now that's an opportunistic vote. Interpret it as you so desire.

[BuJaber]

@beefster I could swear you quoted skitter saying "why is it opportunistic"

[BuJaber]

I must have misread it.

Okay I'm day 1 lynch. Unforgivable mistake.

[BuJaber]

And if it is somehow proven that you edited the comment that should be an insta ban.

[LaserGuy]

Quick thoughts...

I'm getting strong Town vibes from Beef, Thor, Espeonage. I see reasons why people might interpret Thor's play as aggressive scum, but I don't really get the sense that this is likely to be the case.

I don't really care for the wagons on wilky and skitter. There's been a few pings here and there from both of them, but nothing I see really stands out as a strong case for either. Feeling TvT on Thor/skitter at the moment.

Null on Fanta and NM. More content needed from both.

Korina is nullscum. Very little content, and her tone feels kind of strange to me.

Golden Paradox has been giving me some weird vibes. 80 is awful. I get the vibe that Paradox is deliberately focusing on unimportant issues rather than actually engaging the thread.

BuJaber looking like scum to me. I think Espeonage and Beef are making a good case here; I don't like the deliberate attempts to force skitter vs Thor, and earlier paradox vs Thor as a TvS. I don't have strong reads on skitter or paradox, but I am suspicious of this framing. I am struggling to see really good reasons why Town would be so intent on narrowing the lynch pool in this manner.

I think Montosh is scum as per 90

[BuJaber]

Serious question what is worse letting NM coast because he's NM or lynching him early because he's NM?

Letting him coast.

Wrong imo.
One is not worse than the other. If a player doesn't engage in any game as either alignment that player is useless to the game and his flip becomes a coin flip.

What happens when he rolls a PR in a game and gets lynched because he's NM?

Criticize his play, call him out on it, blacklist him from your games, request he be replaced but don't just lynch and hope to hit scum.

[BuJaber]

Quick thoughts...

I'm getting strong Town vibes from Beef, Thor, Espeonage. I see reasons why people might interpret Thor's play as aggressive scum, but I don't really get the sense that this is likely to be the case.

I don't really care for the wagons on wilky and skitter. There's been a few pings here and there from both of them, but nothing I see really stands out as a strong case for either. Feeling TvT on Thor/skitter at the moment.

Null on Fanta and NM. More content needed from both.

Korina is nullscum. Very little content, and her tone feels kind of strange to me.

Golden Paradox has been giving me some weird vibes. 80 is awful. I get the vibe that Paradox is deliberately focusing on unimportant issues rather than actually engaging the thread.

BuJaber looking like scum to me. I think Espeonage and Beef are making a good case here; I don't like the deliberate attempts to force skitter vs Thor, and earlier paradox vs Thor as a TvS. I don't have strong reads on skitter or paradox, but I am suspicious of this framing. I am struggling to see really good reasons why Town would be so intent on narrowing the lynch pool in this manner.

I think Montosh is scum as per 90

We'll meet again at game end when we find out there is one scum (at least) between thor, skitter and paradox.

[BuJaber]

I tunnel when I think I'm right. And I think I'm right.

But let's not forget I wanted to lynch a lurker so no I'm not narrowing the pool as much as you seem to imply.

[Espeonage]

Quick thoughts...

I'm getting strong Town vibes from Beef, Thor, Espeonage. I see reasons why people might interpret Thor's play as aggressive scum, but I don't really get the sense that this is likely to be the case.

I don't really care for the wagons on wilky and skitter. There's been a few pings here and there from both of them, but nothing I see really stands out as a strong case for either. Feeling TvT on Thor/skitter at the moment.

Null on Fanta and NM. More content needed from both.

Korina is nullscum. Very little content, and her tone feels kind of strange to me.

Golden Paradox has been giving me some weird vibes. 80 is awful. I get the vibe that Paradox is deliberately focusing on unimportant issues rather than actually engaging the thread.

BuJaber looking like scum to me. I think Espeonage and Beef are making a good case here; I don't like the deliberate attempts to force skitter vs Thor, and earlier paradox vs Thor as a TvS. I don't have strong reads on skitter or paradox, but I am suspicious of this framing. I am struggling to see really good reasons why Town would be so intent on narrowing the lynch pool in this manner.

I think Montosh is scum as per 90

We'll meet again at game end when we find out there is one scum (at least) between thor, skitter and paradox.

This may just be the worst bus attempt I have ever seen.

[BuJaber]

One scum between Laser, espeo, and beef by association.
Game is too easy.

[Espeonage]

And the quick obfuscation. Cool

[BuJaber]

To be fair I'm at a work meeting and wrote that before your post but submitted after.

[BuJaber]

Oh and the cherry on top would be when NM flips town this game lmao. YFW.

[BuJaber]

My reading prowess is unmatched. Unmatched.

[BuJaber]

This is a hyperactive game right?

[BuJaber]

I declare my support for NM to win this game.

[Dr Fanta]

Really feeling that Not_Mafia has been posting very anti-town posts and generally being stubborn in participating in discussions, I personally would rather remove him from the possibly scum/possible town pool than deal with his shenanigans for the entire game, so I'm partial to keeping Pepper's vote on him.

Also kinda feeling a scumvibe from beefster and bujaber, both are playing a majority of defensively with very slight scumhunting. BuJaber being very stubborn about tunneling somebody (136) on only D1 feels generally very scummy.
VOTE: BuJaber

- Fanta

[Dr Fanta]

I must have misread it.

Okay I'm day 1 lynch. Unforgivable mistake.

Also, saying this when you only have 2 votes on you is hilarious to me.

[BuJaber]

I misread his quote and it had a direct effect on him thinking I'm scum because he thought it was fabricated.

It is impossible to prove that I am telling the truth and it is very difficult for anyone to believe my claim. Therefore I am day 1 lynch.

I do want to point out that you should pay attention to the speed in which my wagon is growing and what that implies. 2 people in the game wouldn't vote each other and 3 wouldn't vote each other. Somebody being voted by everyone who posted is incredibly suspicious.

[skitter30]

NM so you scumread Thor?
Why? Why not?

Upon rereading I have comvinced myself that skitter v Thor is definitely TvS.

Or in this game possibly SvW

. So I'll be voting there and only there. Whether you like it or not Thor you made it binary.

VOTE: Skitter

a) Not sure why you've arbitrarily reduced your lynchpool to two people

b) I flip town - how does that affect your Thor read?

Yup 5 scum. Definitely some among the lurkers. But how do you pick one lurker over the other?

OK, who exactly are 'the lurkers'?

Skitter Thor is 50-50.

Why do you think that though?

Also by saying I am only voting for 2 people I give others a false sense of security. But yeah I'm pretty sure I am only voting one of those 2.

'Saying I'm only going to vote for two people isn't as bad as it sounds! I'm going to give others a false sense of security - who knows what scummy things they might do with it! But btw, if you do something scummy, don't worry; I won't actually vote you cuz I'm probably going to only vote for those two people!'

Also what does 'false sense of security' even mean here?

I tunnel when I think I'm right. And I think I'm right.

OK, so what exactly are you tunneling here? Me? The idea that there's definitely scum in me/Thor?

Like why do you think I'm scum exactly? Cuz when you actually voted me, you basically said '50/50 in Thor/Skitter. vote skitter'. To go from there to tunneling is kinda weird tbh.

-----

I would be interested to know if he will respond to pressure but would have to be actual lynch pressure not just a half arsed wagon.

I'd be down for this but according to him he won't respond to it so idk if it'll accomplish much

-----

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

Honestly, I think that people might sometimes forget that they're playing multiball, and just play like it's singleball.

Like you also sound like you forgot we were playing multiball here in the bolded below; you're ignoring the possibility that thor/paradox might be s v w.

Unfortunately, yes, Town do this as well. I don't think all of the participants are necessarily scum, but I think it's more likely that we'll find scum in {BuJabar, Korina, skitter} than in {Thor, Paradox}.

Unless, I suppose, both you and Paradox are scumbuddies and this is all theatre, which is certainly possible for D1,

but I don't think that's what happening here.

I think you're reading too much into that statement by montosh tbh.

[Montosh]

NM so you scumread Thor?
Why? Why not?

Upon rereading I have comvinced myself that skitter v Thor is definitely TvS. Or in this game possibly SvW. So I'll be voting there and only there. Whether you like it or not Thor you made it binary.

VOTE: Skitter

This is a bad way of going about things, not to mention that you only keep to it for about 5 minutes. You have no reason to think it's not a town vs town at this point. Even if it's not, why skitter over Thor?

Your perspective is wrong. For Town, the odds of hitting scum D1 in this game are ridiculously good. In a typical setup, it's like 20%. In this game, it's nearly 50%. Your comment makes sense coming from the point of view of scum, but not of Town.

Scum are not going to try and lynch their partners. With that in mind and noting that this setup is majority town means that a mislynch remains the most likely scenario Day 1. Yes, scum groups targeting each other raise the odds of a scum lynch, but nowhere near the levels you're suggesting. A cursory glance at the previous game played with this setup listed on the wiki reveal this to be the case.

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

Translation: I'm scum because I read the setup

I'm wondering if scum would openly make such an awful argument Day 1.

I think your reads on beef and Esp are under-explained. Beef seems to be coasting along somewhat and either trying to sheep other people. Esp is saying very little while posting a lot. I can't imagine him as a townread at this point in the game.

I think that taking the stance that bussing isn't going to be a thing is a really crazy stance to take. I think that wolves are probably less inclined to bus, but I wouldn't put it past mafia to bus.
However white flag gambit is definitely a thing and active in this setup where wolves can lose with a member still alive, same with mafia who can eat a nk to lose.

:/

Who's this in response to? Sure scum'll probably bus but they're not gonna actively try and get their partners lynched. There's a difference and that changes the probabilities.

I must have misread it.

Okay I'm day 1 lynch. Unforgivable mistake.

Is this AtE? If so, it's really bad AtE.

I tunnel when I think I'm right. And I think I'm right.

But let's not forget I wanted to lynch a lurker so no I'm not narrowing the pool as much as you seem to imply.

A pool of two people is not particularly indistinguishable from a pool of two people plus a lurker. If you think thor is trying to set it up as a binary, then why are you following it? You don't need to. If you're town, there's no point limiting yourself to two people.