Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[ActionDan]

Are you talking about this?

Dunnstral's meta-case on Tchill seemed well intentioned. Something I'm not seeing come up in the simultaneous Dunnstral/Marquis reads is that nobody is mentioning how Dunnstral hopped off Marquis onto Tchill. Frankly, if Marquis is scum, he's getting bussed hard this game, and actually going through with it might be to the scum team's benefit. There's not much of a reason in hopping off there. Similarly if he's town, Dunnstral is hopping off one town wagon to another. Does he need to stick his neck out for that? I would argue that is actually counter-intuitive to lynching Tchill/Screenplay, because the result you'd expect is the result he received: Llamarble immediately suspected him for it, which weakened morale for lynching Tchill.

[Ranmaru]

Thanks Lycanfire. I was just wondering how your opinion would compare to mine in my #2303.

[Ranmaru]

Hey Dan. I want to see you try to elaborate on your full reads list.

[Lycanfire]

You know, if I scumslipped in that post you would have never read it

[ActionDan]

Hey Dan. I want to see you try to elaborate on your full reads list.

Sometime tomorrow

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm sorry Lycan but like, can you break down what you said last page, I legitimately have no clue what you're trying to prove in most of what you're saying.

[Thestatusquo]

So, LQ I have a whole bunch of things I'm going to respond to but I've decided that I'm not going to respond to your attacks on me anymore. For my sanity. I've said my peace and if you want to scum read me because you're not understanding the words I'm saying thats fine. I just can't talk about it anymore because frankly nothing I'm saying is getting through to you. It's not that I can't defeat your arguments, but rather that I have and you refuse to acknowledge it. I have no desire to continue to hash that out with you. Vote me, if you think I'm scum.

What I do want to talk to you about is that I have a whole bunch of cheet content on the gamma meta, do you still want this? It seems to me that you're off that now, but if you still want to hear what cheet has to say I'll take the time to paraphrase his wall posts.

[Thestatusquo]

Eh, fuck it. I'll post it anyway. He read your thing about unvotes before posting so was explicitly looking for it.

Cheets meta dive of gamma:

TownGame Anything UPick

Large amount of off topic posting
Serious from the very start of game with vote, Votes Whemeplay for suggesting shooting the vig.
There's very a very disappointingly low amount of him actually playing the game here.
Some setup spec, could maybe see him speccing on team comp if he doesn't ever setup spec as scum
Isn't afraid to be doing nothing and not pushing anything as town
Clumsy. Puts his foot in his mouth a bit.
Holds serious votes very long.
Is frequently annoyed at being pushed.
Gets lynched.

TownGame Gold Rush

Replaced in.
Says that he doesn't feel capable of playing a "deep wolf game."
This game happened after team mafia started, so very recent. Basically saying he doesn't think he can carry a scum team.
Not relevant to alignment, but cheet is annoyed that in his catchup he responds to single posts on at a time.
Doesn't vote at all in his catchup.
Suspicious of competent players who lurk
Unvotes very frequently as town here.
Votes Cabd basically for not engaging enough with the game.

TownGame Valentine's Dance

Setup specc at the very beginning of the game.
Is paranoid of the "good players" on the list.
Lots of pokes at peoples reads when they're expressing higher confidence than he thinks they should be.
Thinks overanalyzing setup spec is scummy. (lol)
Again, very tentative with pairing similar to with voting.
Scum really pushed for his ML
Gets really annoyed when people are worse than he expects of them
Says he has a reactive scum game.
He gets VERY angry.

ScumGame Mini Normal 1811

Asks busywork questions rather than commenting on things going on.
Unvotes.
LOT of buddy interaction. Way higher than most.
Another unvote.
Sheeps "townreads". We don't think we saw that anywhere in the town games we read.
He votes a lot more frequently as scum in this game.
Puts a lot of emphasis on distancing from his buddies.
He is less defensive and gets less angry at people for scum reading him.
More willing to compromise with his votes than the town games.
Votes a lot more frequently.
Lots of waffly fence sitting.
Literally no angry reaction to being pushed [to clear a scum buddy]

White Flag
Early vote on Marquis
Vote on Dunnstral
Unvotes
Votes TSQ
Cheet thinks he's taking this game a lot more seriously than any of the other games we read, and this comes out in his tone and his demeanor.
Unvotes while reviewing.
Votes LQ for being too argumentative for the sake of being argumentative
post 647 is a game that we would expect to see more in his town game than scum game.
Votes TChill for shading, bad reasons, etc.
Says that LQ is playing entirely reactively
Says he stopped reading about halfway through because he's tired of reading so many gamma posts.

But we got through several town games a scum game and half of this one.

General thoughts:

Cheet thought, before doing this dive that townGamma is generally obv town. But he's more lynchbaity than he originally thought based off of these games.

Gamma's scum game is pretty weak (based off of prior experience) He gets lynched d1-3 a lot, so cheet tried to dive a game where he lasted longer than that.

He thinks that given gammas self-evaluation of his scum game, he'd be very unlikely to take a scum slot unless he had the direct intention of being early bus fodder to clear his teammates.

He thinks that based off of what hes seen here he can only really see gamma as scum with LQ because of that, otherwise hes not really doing anything to overcome his self described "not deep wolf game." The rest of the pushing and engagement is too scattered to make sense otherwise.

With his votes, his scumgame was typically a little more votey, where his towngame is a lot more unsure and tentative.

He thinks that overall if he were reading this in a vacuum he would say the play is more similar to his scum game than his town game, but he doesn't think this is a super weight-y point because its possible that team mafia makes gamma play a lot more seriously than he typically does as either alignment, which is generally born out in the lack of shit posting in this game which you see constantly in other games of both alignments.

He reiterates that he thinks 647 is way more likely to come from town gamma than scum gamma.

There isn't really the waffly fence sitting or the awkwardness or the compromise in this game that we saw in his scum play.

Basically we still think he's more likely to be town than scum.

You also rarely see him unvoting in games he is Town.

This is untrue. We saw him unvote in literally all three town games. If anything, unvoting seems like a town tell to us. Though its likely not that either.

LQ wrote:

In this game, if you look at his votes, they are very "well I guess, not really sure" which looks really bad for him.

Cheet doesn't think this is true and he wants to know what votes you think it applies to.

[Ranmaru]

Waiting on CES and others to respond.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES: Why didn't you explain your mindset to NSG about your vote on Eddie, instead of simply saying you feel she's trying to scapegoat you for the two mislynches? Are you re-reading yet?

I don't think engaging nsg's team's reads directly is particularly helpful, especially when they're expressed vaguely. I'd rather hear what nsg thinks herself.

I have started re-reading (and re-thinking), yes. It's annoying how Marquis hasn't been lynched despite how criminally obvious he is in the early going.

With the Postienightkill, I'm also currently thinking that one potential purpose of it would be to make nsg look more town and thereby more clout to steer the lynch away from Marquis. Obviously, that does explicitly require Marquisscum but there are definitely scum teams for which that would make sense as a tactic (e.g. Marquis-nsg-Dunnstral). I think it's probably still more likely that it points to a relatively confident scum team (e.g. GE-AD-TSQ, but let's not actually entertain the possibility of Marquis being town if we can avoid it). I should do some calculations as a sanity check but it shouldn't matter too much Today either way - Marquis is the way forward.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Marquis

More coming later but I got some agreement here

[Dunnstral]

Also somebody said this methodical lurking and excuses comes from scum, I agree with that in regards to tchill (and not myself)

[Dunnstral]

and by tchill I mean marquis

[LicketyQuickety]

Also somebody said this methodical lurking and excuses comes from scum, I agree with that in regards to tchill (and not myself)

and by tchill I mean marquis

It almost sounds like you are taunting Town as Scum saying "You can't lynch me"

[Dunnstral]

I'm not

[Marquis]

Committing myself to actually catching up tonight

Sorry I'm total deadweight, clearly haven't been feeling mafia lately. But it's too late to replace anyway

[Gamma Emerald]

Not too late to replace, too late to swap, but you can replace sans penalty if the TM runners don't need to step in

[Davsto]

sorry i spent the last couple of days with gf so didn't have time and it's late tonight, I'll have a post up within,,, 18 hours or so max (probably less)

[Thestatusquo]

Dunn and NSG I asked questions. Neither of you responded that I saw. Please do that, or point me to the response if I missed it somewhere?

LQ are you going to respond to the meta that cheet put a large amount of work into while he was sick because you asked him to, or is not responding to a post only scummy when I do it?

[Ranmaru]

Sweet. I'll have a reads list ready tonight with responses after I get out of work. My re-read is done.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 3.5

Marquis(3)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, LicketyQuickety, Dunnstral

northsidegal(1)

~ Ranmaru

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Gamma Emerald

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan

Cogito Ergo Sum(1)

~ Lycanfire


Not Voting (4): Davsto, Marquis, northsidegal, Thestatusquo

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

MOD NOTES

Updating first post here. Sorry I'm behind on that.

[MathBlade]

MOD NOTES

First post is now up to date. If you feel I'm missing something or want something added to it please let me know.

[Ranmaru]

====
Reads
====

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Town

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Quick: I again, felt his opening play seemed illogical, but as I pushed into his illogical web, I realize that it seems to have no scum motive there. As I pushed him he kept engaging, which makes me feel he really was trying to understand my issues. I started liking his play since him explaining himself to me, then giving his reads list, then on Day 3, after his Gamma/Ran push, explained his issue with me. I also do believe he is town trying to push things even though he doesn't feel he has the right evidence. I think he undervalues his own skill, and think he has made good observations but then re-treads those due to Occamz razor. (I feel like that helps sometimes and it hurts sometimes especially when scum are doing things you don't expect precisely to fool those who use it)

Gamma: My read on Gamma remains the same. As I have explained in my #2217, this seems much different then his scum game or his third party game. His 'forced' reactions are null, he does it as both alignments. I like his questioning in his #2283, and I like his reconsideration of Quick after Quick rightfully explains himself. In Penguin Mafia Redux, he wasn't actually scumhunting as much. Here he has been doing plenty of that. I would also like those pushing for Gamma (CES) to look into my #2217 and tell me their thoughts.

NSG: Her #441 seems like a pro-town observation, not something I'd think Scum would point out. Now, if I compare NSG to Lycanfire, she's been pretty consistent with her push on CES. She's asked Llama his thoughts on CES. I think overall she was posting well. Now, given her progression on Dunn, I can see why she was fine with voting him as opposed to Eddie. Eddie flipping town makes me feel much better about her slot in general. Again, I do like that she repeats her question to CES in her #550. Looking back, her #584 seems fine since T-chill seemed like likely scum for avoiding the game. She follows up on her questioning to Dunn in her #489. After those posts, is when she starts to drop in activity and engagement. She says it's mostly due to her feeling she is doing bad, which I don't see at all. I can see this as more likely to be town as, she was posting well, and I think if she were scum, she'd continue to post to keep up the charade. She also mentions it's due to post rate going faster, and I know I myself, am a cause of that, even though this game I'm trying to restrict myself. (As opposed to Penguin Mafia Redux, my previous game here, I was top poster above Mulch, Gamma, and Transcend) So it makes sense. This is why I keep asking people to slow down their posting (LQ) because it actually hurts other town from being able to read thoroughly and with effort, when scum really don't have that same desire to comb through posts. She asks for questions to help her jump back into the game, and I try to help out. She does answer in her #1473 which is helpful. Her stance on Eddie was weak, but it doesn't do much to weaken my town read on NSG. On the small off chance that Marquis is scum, she might actually be scum as well. Only slight chance though. A50 thinks she is lock town though. So does Cheeky. (Well that is outdated, she said that quite a while ago, Cheeky isn't active right now, it's just me and A50, but Cheeky did check in with us recently asking us for updates)

Action Dan: So in general, I still have a problem with Action Dan's lack of presence. It feels as the days go on he has less and less presence. He stuck his neck out stating he thought Eddie would still flip town, that looks good on him.
His #1144 is him simply townreading people and using POE. What I really need to see is him going into why, thoroughly if he is doing that, yet he declines. So, that doesn't actually help me sort him. (Yet he says he'll do one today, I hope to see it) I think I have no reason to truly believe he is scum but I'm still wary of him. Slight town.

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Null

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Dunnstral: Repeating what I have said earlier: The only thing I get is null. I do like his votes, on Marquis, and his push on T-chill did seem like he had conviction for it. He has been present, and voting, but that's about it. Not seeing any scum intent from him, though. A50 does have him in the scum pool, which is the only thing I have in the back of my mind to keep in mind when reading Dunnstral. An important post I think, is his #2034, which states he isn't invested. The good thing to keep in mind is, that even though he isn't invested, he's still present. || I haven't really seen much from him today, he's just wondering about the kill for now. If we don't lynch scum before him for at least today / tomorrow, then he needs to die.

Marquis: My issue with him is that I can't really find any townieness from him. I do agree that him popping in and out may be scum. I think I'm just more correct with the reads below. If I'm wrong on the lynch today, Marquis must be the next lynch for sure.

Davsto: My overall feelings still remain, so I'll re-post it: I feel like his reads list is overall, surface level. He's still actually in process of ISO'ing Gamma. WGEURTZ, I don't get any vibes from. This is one of those things I can agree with LQ on. (The flatness) It's kind of an issue if Davsto is consistent with that. I also generally don't like how he formats his posts, it makes it hard to parse. LQ's post on him is a good point: #1730 (Second paragraph, first sentence) I think I null read him. I know that he played devil's advocate with Postie on the Eddie case, which seemed townie. Then he makes #1427, agreeing to it. Again, I can't really get too much vibes either way. I keep trying to get a read on him and it's difficult for me. || Now, I'm seeing that he may be having trouble finding mafia. If he's town, I can understand that he's just having surface level opinions and is having a hard time trying to, which is why I'm hoping he does do something with what CES and I asked of him. If CES is not scum, Davsto is. I was hoping he'd actually ISO or answer my questions, I can't really say if he's scum for sure or town, but the way he's posting right now isn't helping me sort him.

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Scum

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CES: I realize that CES's #122 Seems suspicious because he states that to Quick without actually stating a scumread on Marquis before then, or giving support. In general, CES in the beginning of game to mid game, seemed to be busy. CES over time has begun to seem more townie to me, especially with his #2279 where he shows worry about the Postie kill. Yet he doesn't really show any re-read yet. His #1596 is concerning to me, as his reads on Shea and Lycanfire don't seem convincing. I would expect a player of his experience to be more critical of a player like Shea. I think sheeping Llama's read is lazy on his part. I actually agree with NSG's point that his pattern of switch to wagons he original wasn't passionate for, gives him scumpoints. It's actually very concerning that he states feeling used as a scapegoat by NSG (which discredits her) but he doesn't actually explain his mindset further. #2279 I'm not confident he is scum, but I feel he'd be the long term scum if so. I think he's slight scum, or town that has been very wrong except his scum read on Marquis in the case Shea/Lyca aren't scum. I find his answer for not explaining his mindset on the Eddie vote to be concerning, I do agree that his vote there wasn't very passionate.

Lycanfire: Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all, which shows he doesn't care to progress RVS. He states he is busy in his [urlhttps://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9907370#p9907370]#430[/url] which is a recurring excuse. In his #932 he states Eddie and Dunn are lynch bait, but doesn't really look into people that are pushing Dunn. Which feels like he is saying that just to say that, but doesn't actually have the interest to follow up and defend those players. He returns to his CES vote #1369, while not trying to push the wagon even though he says he wants people to be on it. In his #1575 he states he didn't do much with it or interact with him due to previous pages being TvT, which doesn't seem believable to me. In his #1669 He states his underperformance is due to people not wanting to play, which is another excuse. He also states my global reads needs changes but he doesn't have solid reads to back his up, especially his town reads. His read on Eddie is mabye scum, for voting Marquis, who he feels is lynchbait. His #1839 seems like a big effort to move from the CES wagon he was sitting on onto Eddie who he was reading as maybe scum. A wagon analysis before he flips, not after. After my interaction with him, he seemed to get better at interacting near the end of Day 2, but it doesn't do much to improve my read on him. I find it to be good play regardless of his alignment there. In his #2222 he opens once again with his push on CES. He's doing better this time by asking LQ 'why no vote CES?' in his #2309, yet again, I think it's null due to him not doing it originally. I have called it out so he knows what to do to keep playing as if he is town. He town reads Shea for being unwavering with Davo's scumread on him, but that's it. It's a bit weak, and he hasn't really tried to sort him, nor did he ask about his direction on Dunnstral, who he believes is lynchbait. Scum. His read on Shea doesn't really factor in that Shea is pushing for Dunn when Lycanfire stated Dunn was lynchbait. Again, showing that he said that only to say that, not actually backing that up.

Shea: Starts out voting NSG in his #82 because he doesn't like that she used wifom, and that she was voting in a way that he felt didn't progress RVS. Yet, a page before, Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all. Shea never asks or comments on Lycan's post here. In his #440 Mentions Tchill and LQ and a pool of players who might be scum with them, but doesn't mention Lycanfire. He doesn't really seem to try to sort Lycanfire, he just townbins him. I still think this is a concerning play from Shea: #435. He interrupts his push on Lycan and doesn't actually comment. He states in his defense #1673 that he just thought it was garbage and felt no need to defend Lycan to his scumread. Yet he hasn't really done much with Quick after reading him as town. During Day 2, I was pushing Quick again but he was not really pushing much, he just commented a bit when I was talking about his progression. Doesn't feel like he had passion for LQ as scum during Day 2, and was content with sitting on Eddie from the beginning. Him wanting to look into Dunn doesn't really feel like he's trying that hard to find mafia, and Lycan did make the point that [Eddie and Dunn are both lynchbait]. (Note if he has ever criticized Shea for pushing Dunn) I do like that he's attempting to work with me more after my original concerns, but still feel he is scum. I don't think his read on Lycan is convincing, and don't understand why he has Dunn as scummier than NSG. NSG feels scummier than Dunn and I feel Shea is running out of options. (Although I think NSG is town, just that she seems like scum from her recent play) #2083 In general, Shea posts reads lists but doesn't really give reasoning along with them, which doesn't help me see why he feels a certain way. Scum.

[Ranmaru]

SCUM [Shea > Lycan > CES | Davsto > Marquis > Dunnstral | Action Dan > NSG > Gamma > Quick > Ranmaru] TOWN

Unvote; Vote: Shea

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: A50 does and has always wanted to work with you and your team. Right now A50's reads are looking like: Shea > Lycan > Marquis > CES | AD > Dunn > Quick | Gamma > Davsto. (From Scum to Town) Of course I remember KMD, how could I not. I can't remember the details of the posts, but I remember his influence on the game, and he was quite the asset. Now, Dan is someone that worries me. He's getting less and less present. I do agree that I'm a likely kill tonight, so I think it's best we lynch where there will be less support without myself in the game.

Math's lynch order seems fine with the exception of Quick, I don't think he's scum here. I want you to try to convince him back onto Lycan. I feel like you had good points against him. I, myself have been pushing things separately from how A50 has been reading things, and he's becoming more and more right. Yet even so, I feel it's best you try to remain confident with your own reads, separate from your team mate. I want you to try to push your own reads harder. I know that's a thing in the past that has caused me to let scum slip, I let other players experience out prioritize my own thoughts and I let them push their wrong reads and whoops. I didn't like your dissapearance D2 but I can see that it's most likely due to how fast paced this thread has become (partly due to my fault and others). I want you to remain confident and push your own reads. I implore you to look into Shea and Lycan, and compare it with what I say. Re-read the thread. I want you to put the effort. I know it's a lot, but we need your eyes and your thoughts to win. I want you active with me if you are town. I want you to surpass yourself this game. I want you to work with me. Let's get scum.