Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Ranmaru]

I'll be waiting.

[LicketyQuickety]

Votecount 3.6

Marquis(4)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Thestatusquo

Cogito Ergo Sum(4)

~ Lycanfire, Davsto, northsidegal, Ranmaru

Thestatusquo(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

Ranmaru(1)

~ Marquis

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan


Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'll be waiting.

I probably cannot commit to anything until I see what Dan does. I might just sheep him, IDK yet.

[Ranmaru]

No, you should sheep me.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Marquis

Dan has the hammer. He's the deciding vote.

[Ranmaru]

Interesting.

[Ranmaru]

Can you tell me why you decide to vote Marquis? Why not join me on CES?

[LicketyQuickety]

Can you tell me why you decide to vote Marquis? Why not join me on CES?

I considered the wagons.. Going solely based off that, the CES is probably the place I should be. That said, Marquis has been dead null for a lot of people all game long (if we take the average of everyone's red on him). On top of this, Marquis has been arguably the lurkiest player in the game (arguably just ahead of Dun). When I say lurking, I am talking about the quality of the posts as well as the frequency of the posts. I think Dunn needs to be pushed D4, regardless of how Marquis (who presumably will get lynched) flips. Both Marquis and Dunn are dead weight, and I don't want them anywhere near LyLo. That said, I am thinking there is a very good chance at least one of Dunn or Marquis is Scum here, so I don't think if we lynch those two that we end up on D5 with a LyLo situation.

[Ranmaru]

So is this a policy vote?

[northsidegal]

I'd be willing to go for dunn today if it can get a majority.

[Ranmaru]

I'm staying on CES.

[Ranmaru]

Gamma

: Join me on CES. I know you town read him, but two scum are on the Marquis wagon right now. (Shea and LQ) Look at #2578 and #2629. Tell me what you think of those votes. One of Marquis and CES are scum.

[Ranmaru]

(Three scum since CES is also on it, but I mean two scum joined it recently)

[Ranmaru]

Shea: Starts out voting NSG in his #82 because he doesn't like that she used wifom, and that she was voting in a way that he felt didn't progress RVS. Yet, a page before, Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all. Shea never asks or comments on Lycan's post here. In his #440 Mentions Tchill and LQ and a pool of players who might be scum with them, but doesn't mention Lycanfire. He doesn't really seem to try to sort Lycanfire, he just townbins him. I still think this is a concerning play from Shea: #435. He interrupts his push on Lycan and doesn't actually comment. He states in his defense #1673 that he just thought it was garbage and felt no need to defend Lycan to his scumread. Yet he hasn't really done much with Quick after reading him as town. During Day 2, I was pushing Quick again but he was not really pushing much, he just commented a bit when I was talking about his progression. Doesn't feel like he had passion for LQ as scum during Day 2, and was content with sitting on Eddie from the beginning. Him wanting to look into Dunn doesn't really feel like he's trying that hard to find mafia, and Lycan did make the point that [Eddie and Dunn are both lynchbait]. (Note if he has ever criticized Shea for pushing Dunn) I do like that he's attempting to work with me more after my original concerns, but still feel he is scum. I don't think his read on Lycan is convincing, and don't understand why he has Dunn as scummier than NSG. NSG feels scummier than Dunn and I feel Shea is running out of options. (Although I think NSG is town, just that she seems like scum from her recent play) #2083 In general, Shea posts reads lists but doesn't really give reasoning along with them, which doesn't help me see why he feels a certain way. Scum.

---

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

---

He says this but his actions don't show this, especially on Day 2 when he just sits on Eddie. Today, he had started a counter wagon on Dunn, without being able to elaborate on why: #2580. In his #2439 he votes LQ instead of voting Dan with me, when I tell him to. It shows he was interested in voting LQ (since that interaction was staged) over voting likely scum in his pov (as he stated to me in #2393. Now, you ask me, why do LQ and Shea interact like that when Marquis is being wagoned? Would Marquis not be the buddy they are trying to save? It would seem that's what they'd want us to think. Yet Shea has been defending the slot quite a bit, and LQ has been poking everywhere about it (like myself when I gave a null town read of him). Yet they are doing that as a red herring. It's more telling to see this: #1734. When I pushed for Shea, LQ was quiet, and voting for me.

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: A50 says for you to stay on CES as he is most confident on this one. I agree.

[LicketyQuickety]

(Three scum since CES is also on it, but I mean two scum joined it recently)

LOL.

[northsidegal]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

I disagree that shea can't be Scum with Marquis.. Context is important. If they are both Scum, then Shea is in a world of hurt if Marquis gets lynched and flips Scum and shea isn't on the wagon. I have yet to look at shea's read(S) on CES, but that's on the order. Depending on what I see there, I may have more to say.

Long story short, Marquis should NEVER make it to LyLo.

[Ranmaru]

Therefore you are voting on policy. Yet you can vote with your town read on CES if both were null to you. You have no reason to vote Marquis on policy. Why do you think Shea is scum with Marquis?

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm not lynching ces over dunn nsg and marquis.

From my reread I didn't particularly like dunn at all. He and marquis are basically the same player in this game but one keeps getting tons of pressure and the other is getting none. Plus reck is screaming at me that dunn is scum in the discord.

Another thing that continually keeps coming up is LQ as a counter wagon to the town wagons. It's happened both days. I'm not huge on VCA but that does suggest to me that LQ is more likely to be town because there's not a lot of scum incentive to try to shift the wagon off of a town player that way, which means likely the early votes on his wagons were town as well.

VOTE: dunnestral

I want this before marquis and nsg. But I'd happily vote any of the three of them today.

@lycan

What do you think of my meta analysis on ces?

@LQ

is that a response to what cheet said?

Shea, why did you ask Lycan what he thought of your Meta analysis on CES given you are lynching Dunn, NSG, and Marquis over CES? Makes no sense why you would care about this point at this point in the game.

[Ranmaru]

Quick, answer my question.

[northsidegal]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

I disagree that shea can't be Scum with Marquis.. Context is important. If they are both Scum, then Shea is in a world of hurt if Marquis gets lynched and flips Scum and shea isn't on the wagon. I have yet to look at shea's read(S) on CES, but that's on the order. Depending on what I see there, I may have more to say.

Long story short, Marquis should NEVER make it to LyLo.

I don't think bussing makes sense in the first place here. Like, you're saying that if marquis got lynched and tsq wasn't on the wagon then he'd look bad, but marquis wouldn't be getting lynched here in the first place if he were scum – it was scum who started the wagon (and i think your reads match mine on this point such that you should agree). If cogito ergo sum were town scum would've almost certainly taken that opportunity, the same espeically so for dunnstral. Scum wouldn't need to be the trailing bus vote on a scum!marquis wagon because a scum!marquis wagon most likely wouldn't be going through in the first place. None of the pushes there have been forceful or convincing enough for them to

need

to sheep on it or look bad.

Marquis doesn't have to make it to lylo if we win before that.

[northsidegal]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

I disagree that shea can't be Scum with Marquis.. Context is important. If they are both Scum, then Shea is in a world of hurt if Marquis gets lynched and flips Scum and shea isn't on the wagon. I have yet to look at shea's read(S) on CES, but that's on the order. Depending on what I see there, I may have more to say.

Long story short, Marquis should NEVER make it to LyLo.

I don't think bussing makes sense in the first place here. Like, you're saying that if marquis got lynched and tsq wasn't on the wagon then he'd look bad, but marquis wouldn't be getting lynched here in the first place if he were scum – it was scum who started the wagon (and i think your reads match mine on this point such that you should agree). If cogito ergo sum were town scum would've almost certainly taken that opportunity, the same espeically so for dunnstral. Scum wouldn't need to be the trailing bus vote on a scum!marquis wagon because a scum!marquis wagon most likely wouldn't be going through in the first place. None of the pushes there have been forceful or convincing enough for them to

need

to sheep on it or look bad.

Marquis doesn't have to make it to lylo if we win before that.

You greatly underestimate how much a player like Marquis hurts Town... You may have a TR on Marq, but let's be honest here, there's just not enough to get the majority of players to TR Marqis at pretty much any stage of the game. That makes Marquis a HUGE liability. With CES, he is at least contributing something to the game and giving us something we can actually read whether for later in the game or just basically clear him based on a Scum!Marquis flip.

You are also way too confident that "we could win before we get to LyLo, so it won't matter." This is playing best case scenario, which is NEVER the way you want to approach the game - especially when you don't even have a Scum lynch and it's D3.

Basically, I think there is a Scum in Marq/Dunn and Marq/CES and CES/Dunn. That's kinda where I am atm.

[LicketyQuickety]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.