Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Ranmaru]

I am at work. Right now, Marquis why did your read on Quick change, and what is the reasoning for it now? What is your read of Shea? How do you feel about the Shea and Quick votes on you?

CES, talk to me about Quick. Also please give me two town games of yours and two scum games. Will respond to you as well when I get home.

[Marquis]

Dunnstral, tell me what you think of Shea's vote on Marquis, and Quick's vote on Marquis. Tell me what you think of this: #2607

I don't know what to think of CES, and yes I will look at this game some more and explain some reads

If CES were scum I'd be looking back at those as moderately suspicious I'm sure if that's what you're getting at, I need to look at him separately though

Also this just feels... off
Like. structurally? or tonally not sure but I'm marking it for future reference

[Marquis]

I am at work. Right now, Marquis why did your read on Quick change, and what is the reasoning for it now? What is your read of Shea? How do you feel about the Shea and Quick votes on you?

CES, talk to me about Quick. Also please give me two town games of yours and two scum games. Will respond to you as well when I get home.

There are these easily posable questions you ask in literally every post and don't really seem to follow up on other than to help yourself go with the flow readwise. Like I don't recall it leading anywhere other than making yourself look engaged and potentially see what wagons you can push without resistance. Which worked for mine up until nsg put it in check.

For the record only because I don't think I've elaborated on this anyway Shea and postie gave off the same figuring shit out vibe. Like not just vapid questioning but the follow through looked real and the interest and involvement felt real. I'll admit it's deteriorated over time as I've seen less of him and the same thing happened for lick - Skrew says he doesn't buy the "too dumb to be scum" schtick and I usually don't either but after taking a step back I'm not really even... feeling anything there. Implosion or EP I forget who said LQ tends to be a bit obtuse as town too from other games and while that doesn't give me any confidence in a townread on him it means I do have to look at it in the context of what he's actually doing and not reactively - which I don't think I've afforded myself the time to do

[Marquis]

Well
Off the top of my head this day LQ has been all for a semi scumlynch semi policylynch on me. Which isn't very attractive.
But pushing CES now??

At face value looks like scum content with either mislynch...
But like... gutwise... just doesn't feel the same as the way Ran or Dunn is pushing for things.

Idk. My mind is kind of like all over the place trying to internally sort this rn so I'm probably not explaining it the best. But like. It gives off a different motivational vibe.

Also I really really think Ran is scum here and seeing at least LQ feeling similarly might have clouded things up last night.

I think right now at least mentally I need LQ to be town seeing the same thing I'm seeing there, more than I'm actively seeing anything either way wrt LQ's slot. I'm a big believer in townsync. But it feels really conflicting how my gut wants to pursue that with LQ.

[Ranmaru]

For the record only because I don't think I've elaborated on this anyway

That's why I asked them. Tell me what you think of this: #2380, and those pages. Tell me what you thought of LQ v Shea there.

[Marquis]

Shea
nsg

Gamma
CES

LQ

Dav
Lycan
Dan

Dunn


Ran

I think I'm somewhere like this now for shotgun reads. 3 in the middle are nullish - not sure if actual null or nullscum by virtue of the ones who are either more town or more do-not-lynch-before-lylo

The fact we only need to get 2 is comforting right now readwise so I don't have to be so exact with it - closer to the top is just a handful of people I don't think should be considered as lynch options at all. Lynching preferably at the very bottom or in that bottom pool is where I want to take this today while we still have the time.

I don't think the rest of town realizes we're probably already on the low ground, aka fighting off a loss. There are still numbers in our favor but based on where the votes lie I feel like it's too easy for scum to direct onto a mislynch of choice up until lylo.

[Ranmaru]

That's the end of my break. I'll respond to Quick and CES after work. (That's at 8PM)

Marquis, what are non-risk wagons?

[Gamma Emerald]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

First I've heard of this
What are his other thoughts

[Gamma Emerald]

This is white flag.

That doesn't all the sudden mean Scum don't bus.

[Gamma Emerald]

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that read

[Gamma Emerald]

Also I don't wanna find it again and I don't want to come off as conf biased but Ran said something about Screenplay salvaging a slot as scum that just screamed projecting to me.
In case I get lynched overnight gun to my head scum would be Ran, Dunn, Dan? maybe.
My most confident town to not lynch anytime before a LYLO would be Shea, Gamma, nsg, CES (yes for real), and... ??? those
LQ in the middle. Cloud of I don't wanna deal right now. I could be wrong.

wut about projecting? what was being projected by ran?

[LicketyQuickety]

Only other person I can see myself voting rn is Dunn.

[LicketyQuickety]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

First I've heard of this
What are his other thoughts

I don't really know. He's rarely even on Discord.

[LicketyQuickety]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

First I've heard of this
What are his other thoughts

I don't really know. He's rarely even on Discord.

Just checked Discord (I don't check it all the time either).

Creature wants to know what Spiffeh's read on Marquis is.

[LicketyQuickety]

Also, Creature thinks Dunn is Town, so that gives me a lot of pause voting Dunn because I think Creature is good at reading people like Dunn.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The iPad swallowed up the first draft of this post so no one gets to see me earnestly answer a rhetorical question (I am broken).

CES, what is your read on Dan?

I initially had a mostly null read with some vague town feelings but in hindsight I'm not sure why I had those feelings exactly (pretty sure it was Shea who made a good post on the topic (albeit a more exaggerated version of what I experienced)). AD is mostly just hard to read because he hasn't had enough presence to really judge him by his actions (which isn't surprising because he's a bit lurkish) and he's also definitely competent to have faked his posts so far. The one thing that did strike me was his post #147 which would've been useful to see reiterated on D2; AD did launch a proper defence of Eddie eventually but only at a point that the lynch had become inevitable.

For like one second. One real day. Work with me and figure out what else is happening around you when you're not blinded by the size of your hate boner for me.

Okay. What do you think of Davsto's nonsense push on me?

[ActionDan]

I'll go read up

[LicketyQuickety]

@Dan,

Would like to know what you think of NSG.

Also, given that the votes end up at 5-5 a piece, where would you vote between CES and Marquis? How have your reads on those players changed from what they were if they have changed?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I am at work. Right now, Marquis why did your read on Quick change, and what is the reasoning for it now? What is your read of Shea? How do you feel about the Shea and Quick votes on you?

CES, talk to me about Quick. Also please give me two town games of yours and two scum games. Will respond to you as well when I get home.

I already talked to you about Lickitung.

Town games:
The Third Fortnight (T-bone there =~ Marquis here)
TM 2015 White Flag (Cheery Dog there is hopefully very much not Marquis here.)

The only scum game I can remember as being even remotely recent is The First Mafia; I don't know how far you'd have to go back to find another scum game but I doubt they'd be particularly relevant unless you want to follow the evolution of my playstyle.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 3.10

Marquis(4)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum(18), Gamma Emerald(75), Thestatusquo(66), LicketyQuickety(178)

Cogito Ergo Sum(4)

~ Lycanfire(28), Davsto(16), northsidegal(36), Ranmaru(165)

Dunnstral(2)

~ ActionDan(16), Marquis(22)


Not Voting (1): Dunnstral(10)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

Performed 15 calls in 22 seconds. With an average of 1.47973333333333 seconds per call.

MOD NOTES

Added posts per day in parenthesis and added something that looks up whether people need prods. Will deploy update later today.

[Davsto]

Because Ranmaru is obvtown for one. I think it's a pattern you see often with inactive but relatively competent scum - they try to fill their few posts with attempts to look town, so Marquisscum would absolutely do the classic vote against the grain here (Marquistown could also do it, sure, but it's not exactly likely.)

I suppose.

Your explanation here seems to say that you're just accusing me of tunnelling, so I still have no clue why you actually think I'm scummy. The example you quote was just me making a self-deprecating joke (if I'm wrong on Marquis too, my reads have been shit so that's not exactly a pleasant scenario to consider) but even if you read it straight I really have no clue as to how me suggesting a theory and then shooting it down would be scummy.

It may be a "joke", but it still looks like you writing off a sane conclusion of what could have influenced the nightkill "because Marquis" and going with the weird one instead. Feels like scum!tunneling, it doesn't feel quite... right. You're not considering other possibilities at all, whereas town do generally have some changes in their read. Also you're acting like it's the entirety of what I think wrong with your play and like this being slightly off disproves my entire scumread on you - it's not, your attitude is just scummy overall.

Actually
Hi dav
Tell me again why ur voting CES
And simultaneously would choose to vig me?

My opinion on where vigs should be used isn't "someone you think is scummy and will also probably be lynched", because that's what lynches are for. I would generally vig a null read who I think a lynch would be wasted on but also needs to die at some point, most commonly someone who's being very lurky. Hence, you or Dunn. I leant towards you because Dunn is a lot more overtly scummy scummy so I'd have preferred a lynch on him (as wagon patterns and how players react to the buildup to a scum lynch is considerably more useful than that leading up to a town lynch).

[Lycanfire]

paraphrasing skirt because he has more time than i do is basically the same reads

There is one scum in Marquis|CES. Skirt favors CES here, and wants Marquis powerlynched if CES is town. (breaking from skirt and saying that Titus said the same thing earlier in day when LQ hopped onto CES). This could be SvS as well, but skirt doesn't see it and wants to see someone that isn't CES push something that isn't a shit case onto Marquis.

Skirt goes onto doing NKA on Llamarble citing 875 and fingering this for his death and that we need consensus that the Gamma wagon was bad. Postie is supposedly killed to implicate Dunnstral (which is all pretty consistent with what we're seeing today). Killing someone hard townreading NSG is supposedly a bonus, because skirt thinks this was a lynchable slot coming into day.

With NKA out of the way skirt gives a neverlynch pool of {NSG, Ran}. We had a lot of discussion in Discord a few days ago over whether NSG v Ran was SvS, or how Ran was pleading to get her onto Marquis was theatre. NSG subverted this by voting CES, and we agree that Ran's hop on isn't strange after I blasted CES on his votes again.

Gamma is put a step further- his read is basically is that he thinks Gamma's play is within his scumrange, but we aren't considering outlier teams with Gamma. I'd put Gamma in neverlynch.

LQ is townie(?) because of his push on Shea. I countered in Discord that LQ's case doesn't make sense and being off both main wagons is awful.

Skirt hardtown read Shea off day 1, but says from meta-analysis that Shea has a good scumgame, while Hiplop and Reck have equally good scumgames, while both flipped town. This gives him suspicion of Shea given how he called CES' lynch D1 pointless to throwing weight beyond Postie's crusade D2, while simultanously pushing Marquis. I think the point is that Skirt is saying Shea is viable scum on a CES red flip. He's the towniest of the lynchable.

Skirt only offers a weaker NSG read onto Davsto (Postie/RC killed to make more lynches viable) so I'll supplement. Titus has a witch read saying one of Shea|Davsto is scum. Don't ask me how this works. I think Davsto giving up Gamma and taking a break from LQ to throw themselves behind the CES lynch is only good stuff. Skirt seems to think Wgeurts takes scum on Young and Beautiful but I countered by saying that Wgeurts has one bullet in the gun, and it's not a very good bullet for White Flag: he can get angry, one time, and it might work, or he might get lynched in the ensuing slapfight. Skirt and I also agree that Wgeurts didn't do anything pro-town. Overall I think he places Davsto too low due to the four townflips on YAB clouding his judgment. I would put Davsto just below neverlynch, above Shea, and a lightyear above LQ.

Skirt makes no sense on Dan. Trash read lol. Says Dan doesn't take scum on his team. Says it is right for ~~reasons~~ that I'm not sure is legal to say anymore. These reasons were supposedly never wrong in Team Mafia18.

Marquis is somehow town and lynchable past Dan. There's a lot of paranoia in our Discord atm about why Marquis isn't voting his counter, why Dunnstral, Marquis, LQ and Dan all have shit reads while skirt is tunneling on the Postie kill while I just think she got RC'd.

Which leads skirt to Dunnstral and says there's 100% scum in ces|dunnstral. Jj says 3 scum in CES Dunn Dan Davsto.

My team basically wants to fite me but we all agree that CES has to die. People having shit reads this game isn't helping us not have shit reads.

[Ranmaru]

I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.

They change by my feeling and by your actions, not reads. You stating I am scum reading you for not liking your read is an obvious misrepresentation. Your tone when addressing me here is much different then: #2442 or this: #2666. It makes me wonder why you take on that tone when I'm bringing up a concern. You bring up 'why you do things as town' yet you still have not answered my #1790. Compare the scum motivation and town motivation and explain why you think I don't have town motivation for what I'm doing, and then I'll explain to you the town motivation. I also am wondering why you didn't respond to my #2350. I'm fine with your Shea read. If you presented a serious case like you are doing so in your 2689, I'd look into it. I didn't get your push in those pages when I voted you, it seemed like a distraction rather then a push to wagon Shea. Also another thing to note that is you always omgus me. Why do you always omgus me?

[Lycanfire]

Tell me what you think of this post: #2380. Then tell me what you think of the rest of those pages. I think these are important to read, so if you think it's nonsense, don't. I want you to read them. Tell me why you think Marquis and LQ are

not buddies

.

Vote onto CES wasn't meant to be, LQ vs Shea is shit, and LQ has no business with his vote on Shea with how little sense he is making. Marquis and LQ aren't wolves because of how they talk to each other see 456-458, 1505 all being the easy examples. Sprinkle in vote data (marquis and gamma must die, ces too, just kidding! also, a wild shea) and I don't think they're on the same team. LQ's votes are very reactionary, and the Gamma one in particular is aimed because I said they couldn't be aligned based on interactions, and I imagine he was more worried about Llamarble's D1 post than any of us when he opened day with that can of worms. I read LQ as having a hitlist of people he can't get along with endgame, and this Shea argument just reads like he's muddying the waters.

(I know I hate how people ignore my reads so I'll give LQ a pity fuck- 2410 is over the top to 2426 is accusing Shea of doing something he isn't doing... Though I suppose that by attacking Shea's premise "once you're caught you're dead" is also attacking the Marquis wagon? I just don't view any of this as actually town, so seeing this as an attack on Shea, or the credibility of the Marquis wagon all get outpaced by the idea that LQ is just trying to create uncertainty tomorrow.)

[Lycanfire]

I feel like Ran telling LQ to vote CES was testing whether he was the third or not. The reply he got was that LQ would look into the "hard data". This is immediate failure of the test, IMO. Basically if the bus becomes the best play (which it is) he would do it, but only after he embarrasses himself apparently.