Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[ActionDan]

But you still need to tell me why you misconstrued Llama's post

I think people misconstrue which one I'm talking about:

Not 886

But rather 1160, that's the one where he calls Eddie/LQ lynchbaity, though not town. That's the only marble post I've ever referenced.

[Thestatusquo]

Votecount 3.11

Dunnstral(3)

~ ActionDan(38), Marquis(23), LicketyQuickety(234)

Cogito Ergo Sum(3)

~ Lycanfire(33), Davsto(18), northsidegal(86)

northsidegal(2)

~ Ranmaru(275), Thestatusquo(79)

Marquis(1)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum(23)

ActionDan(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(114)


Not Voting (1): Dunnstral(10)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

MOD REMINDERS

Dunnstral needs a prod. The last post was at: 2/24/2018 1:11:00 AM which was 2 days 12 hours 47 minutes 22 seconds ago.

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

Performed 17 calls in 613 seconds. With an average of 36.0784705882353 seconds per call.

[Ranmaru]

I am mobile right now. If you want to post a chart here, go ahead. Then you will have to prove mathmatically why you have not received a scum role pm. (But not sure on the rules on that) More later, driving to work.

Ok so this is a really bizarre post.

Explain. I state I am going to work, will make some quick responses. I can't examine team composition right now, but she can take the time to chart it out or convey it in a legal manner if she wants to have me reconsider. I am the only team mate alive in my team. Mostly just A50 and myself. I have not made a chart of team composition reads to see how they fit nor am I sure if it confirms anothers alignment, and neither am I sure of the math of it. A50 has made a chart, but it was long ago and I am more up to date on this thread then he is. I have simply been focusing on in-game actions.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't understand how anyone could prove mathematically the thing you asked her to prove.

Or how you could think thats a reasonable burden.

All of these things are probabilistic not deterministic.

[Ranmaru]

Probality is not my forte. She is pressing for a response, I would expect her to try to convince me in some way, while I am busy. Are you referring to burden of proof? Me asking her to prove she did not receive one would not be fair in that case. I should have asked her to explain why it should matter so much and what the chances are *a person may or may not be scum*.

[Thestatusquo]

I just think its setting her up for failure. You can't mathematically prove you did or did not get a scum PM. Suggesting you want her to do that is pretty unreasonable.

[Dunnstral]

Marquis ignored me again

Hopefully they find time to talk about why they're voting me before deadline.

[Thestatusquo]

Marquis ignored me again

Hopefully they find time to talk about why they're voting me before deadline.

Hopefully your scum butt will find time to actually do something besides defend against the one vote on you and maybe I don't know vote or tell us who you think is scum or...you know really anything at all.

[Ranmaru]

That is fair, and I will drop that. I honestly do not know why it should be brought up as a defense if that is the case. Shea, what do you think of people basing reads solely on team comp?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, that's a depressing Vote Count. My desire to lynch Dunnstral is approximately zero and I'm not really interested in following up a Postiekill with a nsglynch (there's absolutely things about her that bother me but it also really feels there's a good chance we're just creating an unnecessary mislynch).

Can we just go back to Marquis? He suggested working with me but he's gone almost 3 days without answering my question now. This is a good lynch and I'm not letting it go.

[Thestatusquo]

Also, I just want to throw this out there:

I absolutely hate this "tournament solving" perspective. I think its mostly nonsense. It boils down to either wifom (who on the team would take a scum PM, which mainly only works in the context of extremes, like a team that has one very good scum players and four very bad ones.) OR it's the gamblers fallacy. (all games were rolled independently of each other. Player A on team 1 rolling a scum PM does not do anything to increase or decrease the chance that player B on team 1 also rolled a scum PM. The same way me getting pocket kings in a hand of poker does nothing to influence the likelihood of me getting pocket kings on the next hand. The two events are independent of each other in terms of probability.)

Even if there were some merit to it, which as I said I don't think there is, there's no indication to me that its better than just regular ol' scum hunting and meta analysis for finding scum players. I think that's been pretty reflected in my teams thoughts over the course of the tournament.

Basically I hate it and I wish a50 would stop doing it. Obviously I can't make him stop, but I'm giving it zero credence in my analysis of this game.

[Gamma Emerald]

But you still need to tell me why you misconstrued Llama's post

I think people misconstrue which one I'm talking about:

Not 886

But rather 1160, that's the one where he calls Eddie/LQ lynchbaity, though not town. That's the only marble post I've ever referenced.

I'm referring to the posts ran has been quoting. Alright then, that's the

only

Llamar post you've referred to?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, I just want to throw this out there:

I absolutely hate this "tournament solving" perspective. I think its mostly nonsense. It boils down to either wifom (who on the team would take a scum PM, which mainly only works in the context of extremes, like a team that has one very good scum players and four very bad ones.) OR it's the gamblers fallacy. (all games were rolled independently of each other. Player A on team 1 rolling a scum PM does not do anything to increase or decrease the chance that player B on team 1 also rolled a scum PM. The same way me getting pocket kings in a hand of poker does nothing to influence the likelihood of me getting pocket kings on the next hand. The two events are independent of each other in terms of probability.)

Even if there were some merit to it, which as I said I don't think there is, there's no indication to me that its better than just regular ol' scum hunting and meta analysis for finding scum players. I think that's been pretty reflected in my teams thoughts over the course of the tournament.

Basically I hate it and I wish a50 would stop doing it. Obviously I can't make him stop, but I'm giving it zero credence in my analysis of this game.

Actually it's

not

Gambler's fallacy. Roles were given to teams, then teams picked their roles. So there is team input as to who gets which role.

[Thestatusquo]

Also, I just want to throw this out there:

I absolutely hate this "tournament solving" perspective. I think its mostly nonsense. It boils down to either wifom (who on the team would take a scum PM, which mainly only works in the context of extremes, like a team that has one very good scum players and four very bad ones.) OR it's the gamblers fallacy. (all games were rolled independently of each other. Player A on team 1 rolling a scum PM does not do anything to increase or decrease the chance that player B on team 1 also rolled a scum PM. The same way me getting pocket kings in a hand of poker does nothing to influence the likelihood of me getting pocket kings on the next hand. The two events are independent of each other in terms of probability.)

Even if there were some merit to it, which as I said I don't think there is, there's no indication to me that its better than just regular ol' scum hunting and meta analysis for finding scum players. I think that's been pretty reflected in my teams thoughts over the course of the tournament.

Basically I hate it and I wish a50 would stop doing it. Obviously I can't make him stop, but I'm giving it zero credence in my analysis of this game.

Actually it's

not

Gambler's fallacy. Roles were given to teams, then teams picked their roles. So there is team input as to who gets which role.

It's not the gamblers fallacy who picked what roles, I call that wifom.

However any arguments that have been made about team comp ARE gamblers fallacy, when they start talking about "oh, x player is more likely to be scum because y players flipped town" which is 100% the gamblers fallacy.

[Thestatusquo]

Like, in all but the most extreme examples its completely wifom who took what PM. Almost every team has multiple competent scum players and there are very few people in the whole tournament who I would be confidant that they would never take a scum PM.

You just simply can't look at any of these teams and say "x player would take scum here" with any high degree of certainty.

[Gamma Emerald]

ok fair

[ActionDan]

Alright then, that's the only Llamar post you've referred to?

yup

[ActionDan]

CES why do you have 0 interest in lynching Dunnstral?

Is it just because he's voting Marquis?

[ActionDan]

oh wait he isn't

[Thestatusquo]

I have interest in voting dunnestral.

[Davsto]

It's Day 3. Whether the reasons for your vote are "he's too suspicious of Marquis!" or "he's too suspicious of Marquis!+Dude's just scummy" with no supporting evidence seems like much of a muchness; it's just weaksauce.

a) My read is more than you just being "too suspicious of Marquis", it's the way you're behaving that doesn't seem like a townie progression of reads (along with my gut reading you scumminly). I can keep giving things that come off as unnatural about your read, like how Marquis made a bunch of posts about a day ago and you haven't referenced or looked at a single thing beyond a single line in any of them - stuff like that is

not

how town act towards a scumread that is that strong.
b) You say that like you've given plenty of strong evidence for your Marquis vote. I've just skimmed through your ISO - all I can see is you saying he's lurking, has an "awkward tone", and a single-game meta. Get off your high horse here. My reasons for voting you are not exactly a huge amount weaker than those of your Marquis reasons. You've barely given anything on him this entire game day.

I replied to one of those posts and I've also just literally spent all my free time this weekend responding to things on my phone.

Again - may I highlight that you've replied to a single line in one post out of about 10. You haven't asked him about his Ranmaru read, you haven't engaged him at all. This does not feel like the attitude that town has to their biggest scumread.

I've also given reasons for why his lurking was scum-motivated; the awkward tone specifically related to his early posting (do you disagree that his early game was awkward?)

I don't disagree - I just disagree that being awkward is necessarily scummy, and strongly disagree that it's a justifier for a strong scumread.

the single game meta was in reference to the representative stuff he was pushing at the start. If that had been all I had said, there's already a significant difference there - I'm connecting my accusations to what's actually happened in the thread rather than push unfalsifiable generalities - that's exactly what my problem is with you. But Today I've also been discussing how I feel his pop-ins seem scum-motivated, talked about this type of competent scum who knows they're not very active and as a result really focuses on trying to look town to the exclusion of anything else, I think that pattern really fits what we've seen with Marquis.

This is a whole lot of waffle that I keep reading and not really getting what you're actually saying. Could you reword?

It's becoming increasingly obvious that your scumread on me is just too convenient - I'm someone who's voting you who's maybe not the towniest or best at explaining reads, so you've taken that opportunity and jumped upon it, especially odd as pretty much every previous comment about me has seemed to have me on the town side of things - I'm very suspicious of that so suddenly changing over something as minor as this, and that it's related to a vote on you feels like it's not coincidence. You are becoming more and more scummy the more attention I pay to you.

My town read on you had already mostly evaporated by the time you voted for me. You did strike me as quite earnest in your approach to the game on Day 2, but in hindsight you were in catch-up mode for a long time, which I think is a bit easier for scum, and your big case against Eddie was meta-based (you can definitely earnestly believe as scum that Eddie wasn't playing to his pro-town meta). I don't know why you'd call your only D3 vote "minor". And of course it's not coincidence it's related to a vote on me - I'm the counterwagon to Marquis and I'm obviously highly aware of it (especially since I had to wait two days to even find out why you were voting me and then accused me of the pretty serious sounding offense of "actively discrediting any theories not involving Marquisscum").

I'd noticed a fair few scummy posts you'd made and that was the justification for my vote - I didn't realise I hadn't put any more than that one in my catch-up (i.e. I'd noticed several other posts and so assumed I'd quoted and talked about several). That was intended to be the justification for it, and the direct wording was merely to satisfy Ranmaru asking me to explain my read changes directly.

I realise that, yes, that's my error, but my vote and then later-explanation absolutely did not come from a place of not wanting to justify it for two days.

[LicketyQuickety]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

Because why wouldn't he take the same defense day 2? it's oddly timed I feel.

Like I said, me and eddie are different people. Is it impossible to you that dan considers me with defending where eddie wasn't?

Why though? Honestly Eddie would seem more worth defending, he was more active than you.

You do remember that not even eddie was fighting his lynch right?

[LicketyQuickety]

Marquis ignored me again

Hopefully they find time to talk about why they're voting me before deadline.

What a coincidence, you ignored me!

[LicketyQuickety]

So I am just going to lob this out there:

Is anyone besides North actually TRing Marquis?

Like I am trying to think of why lynching anyone else besides the chronic low content lurkers is a good idea at this point in time.

Like what justifies Marquis being alive at this point in the game?

Anyone is free to field this one, I'm not picky.

[LicketyQuickety]

^ applies to Dunn as well.