Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Lycanfire]

that's ok, his last post of the day will be remembered as the one that rather than answer my questions and prove he's in on ces, he promoted marquis as the third. with his "do you know why i'm asking" comment i legit thought he was going to accuse you of derailing the ces wagon and i was :amused: only for him to ruin it by making it all about not lynching him tomorrow.

[Lycanfire]

(which is fine because dan is a perfectly fine lynch.)

2532 means we don't have to choose between lq or marquis (is the lq/gamma/tchill wagons of day 1 suspicious, or is marquis refusing to vote his counter because of double scum wagons?) just vote dan tomorrow.

[Lycanfire]

My vote for LyLo lynch leader is whoever is willing to vote for Marquis.

I strongly encourage anyone reading this that's still alive in LyLo to just go rogue and vote for Marquis.

I'd almost appreciate a real vote out of CES if he were town, like, right now, but notice how I didn't bother to ask and that he didn't bother giving one.

Also, apparently he knows that Marquis will live to day 5.

adding onto this in case any subtleties were missed

i'm blatantly painting a townbloc of unlynchables, and saying we need a lylo controller

he doesn't care about a lylo controller

he flat out says to disobey, but gives no reason why

ces has no delusions of not being lynched

he is saying this now, because he can't say it tomorrow

he is saying marquis will live to day 5, but if he gets lynched and flips town, that will probably not happen

if ces is town and about to be lynched, he has two things he can do:
-pre-vote for a lylo leader
-demand to be the lylo leader today and say for marquis to be lynched

look at his specific wording:

My vote for LyLo lynch leader is whoever is willing to vote for Marquis.

For someone that makes things about himself even at his own detriment he refused to make THIS about himself. CES' Marquis scumread has been his entire contribution to the game, but rather than make THAT all about him - he refuses and vaguely says that whoever wants to vote Marquis in a day5 lylo is the leader.

This is a scumclaim.

[Ranmaru]

Yeah quicks follow up was weak. That is why I want him to answer who he thinks is scum on cestown and cesscum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

he is saying marquis will live to day 5, but if he gets lynched and flips town, that will probably not happen

I've been listened to after my death exactly once and that's my favourite game of all time. I have absolutely no high hopes about how this game is going to and it's not like there are three people I can rely on to vote for Marquis in LyLo, so I can't say I'm interested in this LyLo leader business.

[Ranmaru]

NSG: Now is the time for Shea. Join me. We have cookies.

[Lycanfire]

Let's dissect that.

...You disagree with the premise of a lylo controller (go rogue)
No comment. That's shit.

...You disagree with the people presented.
At the very least you don't think they will vote for Marquis, despite two of the four doing so today.

...You say your ideal lylo controller anybody that votes Marquis.
Looking at the wagons of the day, Marquis already had a wagon exceeding your own. There's no reason to assume that he wouldn't be lynched tomorrow with how easily he could have been lynched today.
You shouldn't know that Marquis lives to day 5 (though, he could if you flip scum).

...You don't present yourself as a leader.
You plainly point for somebody else to lead at lylo.

...You are clearly aware that you're about to be lynched.
If you were ever going to flip town, what the fuck is any of this?

Nothing about this is real.

[Lycanfire]

NSG: Now is the time for Shea. Join me. We have cookies.

your never ending desire to extend day is disgusting

i present to you an anti-scummie, and elusive artifact given to those that promote only the best shitplay.

[Ranmaru]

I disagree, I am trying to win this for town and lynch scum before I am night killed.

[Lycanfire]

you can wait forever, you've got time

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've responded to the most important things in nsg's latest (spoilered) response.

As far as i can tell, the only point you bring up there that i didn't already mention (being awkward and lurking) is that marquis is "trying to look town". As for that point, i again don't see any true explanation – why is any of it performative as opposed to genuine? Like, you point to 1481 and say to just look at some paragraphs to see how he's trying to act town, but that's not an explanation, that's just asking the readers to figure out what your point supposedly is themselves.

I literally give an unambiguous example in the very sentence I claim he's being performative ("he made a big show of wanting to cooperate with me but hasn't answered the question I asked 2 hours later"); do I really need to spell out that genuine!Marquis would've responded to me? And yes, I do point to some specific examples (NOT "just look at some paragraphs", I point out specific paragraphs in #1481) that are more subjective. If a certain paragraph gives me an overwhelming vibe of Marquis performing for an audience rather than posting his thoughts naturally, how do you expect me to explain it further? More importantly, there's still a world of difference between saying that my Marquisread is based on relatively more subjective things (and therefore, I guess, I could more easily just be making it up) and saying that the reasons for my Marquisread simply haven't changed.

And this is not, you know, a throw-away line. You italicize it and it seems to be very much a basis of you rejecting my Marquis-read as coming from scum.

Okay? I don't see how saying it was just those two reasons takes away any of the scumminess i'm suggesting about your shift there.

Then what is scummy about my Tchillshift? Your timeline of events is literally "CES sees 2 things that are scummy about Screenplay and as a result thinks the Screenplay is scummier than it was previously" + a bunch of extraneous things. You haven't commented at all on those 2 things and or why they would be insufficient reason to sway me from null to "slightly scummy".

Maybe it's just because Marquis has been scummier than me? Both dead townies that are included in those sets ('marble and Eddie) were on Marquis. Also pretty sure LQ voted me at some point before this but I'm pretty sure it's a completely arbitrary point regardless.

This doesn't address points in the game where people were pushing for your lynch pretty hard and explicitly asking others to follow them on there. Don't you think it's easier (and puts less of a target on yourself) to agree with someone's case on someone else and follow that than to push a lurker?

It was Ranmaru who was pushing me hardest previously and given his constant read changes there wouldn't've exactly been a safe way for scum to get onto that wagon. I'm sure scum have happily piled on now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think the point I would make about nsg's case is her recurring focus on my form (e.g. I only explained my Postievote much later) often without giving reasons for why it's scummy (e.g. if I had had the time, why wouldn't I have explained my vote?) and her accompanying failure to grapple with my content - she hasn't engaged with my reasons for my reads change on Tchill, she left out my reasons for believing Eddiescum in her list of reasons why I had voted for anyone, she left out the main reason for my suspicion of Marquis.

Let me also respond to this:

That's because my vote for Eddie essentially came down to me letting go of the more strategic approach and just voting with the goal of getting what I thought was a good lynch. It was prompted by me explaining my reads to Ranmaru and at that point I just felt that I was being somewhat condescending by trying to game the system in order to secure my preferred lynch (i.e. intentionally not joining the Eddiewagon when it was my natural inclination to do so in order to keep my credibility intact for a Marquislynch).

i don't see how you could both be worried about eddie flipping town and you losing your credibility and hold the opinion that it was a good lynch and that you had eddie pretty confidently scum. Also, wouldn't it make more sense to be concerned about losing credibility from the

marquis

lynch? After all, marquis was the one you had been pushing for a while – eddie was postie's wagon, largely. How would it have made

you

lose credibility moreso than anyone else on the wagon?

During Day 2 I explicitly said I thought there was a ~55% chance of Eddiescumflip. That

is

a pretty good lynch but really doesn't rule out the Eddietown-Marquisscum scenario. And of course that's the scenario I'm worried about when no one else is pushing Marquis with any sort of fervour (and the argument against Eddie was also much more accessible); the Marquislynch is tied to my personal credibility and standing in a way that the Eddielynch just isn't. And I don't know why you're confused about me losing credibility when you're the main person who's thrown my confidence in my Eddieread back in my face. I know how mafia gets played; this stuff is more predictable than you might think; the rest of the town will always let you down if you let them.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

From my point of view I also think a reasonable high-level summary of (part of) nsg's case is that my play has been focused on getting what I see as the right lynches and not on unimportant stuff like town reads on people that are in no danger of getting lynched. Certain people might find that scummy but that's essentially just my playstyle. I also had fully intended to give a full reads list on Sunday when we got home from our Cardiff trip but that trip ended up being another 3 hours longer than I was expecting so I would've ended up talking about several things she's complained I haven't talked about if not for happenstance.

[Thestatusquo]

Quick: Same question. Who is scum on CEStown flip, and CESscum flip. In fact, everyone answer this. Ces scum = Ces, Shea, Quick.

I still don't understand why you think ces flip makes me scum. With LQ of literally all players. That would require you to think scums strategy is just basically turbo bussing which is just bizarre.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 3.17

Cogito Ergo Sum(5)

~ Lycanfire(55), Davsto(21), northsidegal(105), LicketyQuickety(273), Thestatusquo(118)

Thestatusquo(3)

~ Ranmaru(350), Dunnstral(13), Cogito Ergo Sum(58)

Ranmaru(1)

~ Marquis(26)

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan(57)


Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald(140)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

[Gamma Emerald]

Spoiler:

LQ

: Why does it mean Gamma scum over Town Gamma to you? We also need to see Action Dan, NSG, and Marquis before we end the day. After that, I'm fine.

Because I can see the perspective that Gamma is just doing a sloppy job of trying to do LAMIST. Like I did leave room in my reads list for this kind of behavior from Gamma as Scum. I can see the perspective that GE is just trying his damndest to look as Townie as he knows how. He's asking questions, but they don't seem to really go very deep. They just sorta seem like a bit of a low standard of play (no offense). It looks more like GE is trying to look town than game solve in other words. I am going to look at that ISO now.

IIRC, he's taken a lot of time to answer questions thrown his way. I don't get how you can be here and make like 5 posts and then once someone asks you something you are just gone for the next hour. it doesn't make sense to me.

Okay, so we're on the same page there then. Townreading CES btw
Honestly I think I'm actually in love with white flag now that I'm engaged in playing the setup

I remembered this post for some reason. I don't like it, IDK why.

OK, I ran this by mathblade and he said I can say this:

OK, so I looked at the PYP game that I said I played with Gamma. He was Scum, not Town in that game! Thing is, he has a pretty good Scum game actually. Pretty much all his posts look pretty Townie in that game. It's a head scratcher. I mean I can say that GE probably wouldn't shy away from being Scum at least.

-----------

At this point an Eddie flip tells us a lot about the game. Tells us a lot about Gamma if Eddie flips Scum, tells us about ECS and Lycan if Eddie flips Town. At this point this lynch needs to happen.

Gamma's town. Although would like you to explain Dunn's thought process coming to you as town.

Don't want me to talk about Gamma being Scum. Why not?

I'm telling you Gamma's town. That's it. Now can you answer my question? (Also, you can talk about it as much as you want, I'm still going to tell you Gamma's town)

Why is Gamma Town without meta?

VOTE: Gamma

I'd rather be here anyways.

@Ranmaru,

I want a detailed case on why Gamma is Town based on Meta.

You need to give your case on why you believe Gamma is scum before hand since Burden of Proof is on you. Afterwords I can give you a brief explanation of why I believe Gamma is town.

Nope, not doing that. You tell me why he is Town first and then I will say what I was seeing.

VOTE: Ranmaru

LOL explain this shit. Just because Ran is telling you to present first you're voting him? You wanna revise that line of bullshit?

Why is it bull shit?

You scumread a person, you present your case. Simple as that. If you need to check why I town read Gamma, you can check my posts like you always ask me to. I'm not going to go back and forth on this point. After you present your case, I'll reasonably fulfill your request. Not before.

Well, the read is contingent on your read of Gamma, so...

All I am seeing here from LQ is "I want to connect Ran and Gamma through them defending each other". I've seen enough.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety

If that is what I am saying, would you say that is inaccurate?

Here's what I can do: After you give your case on Gamma, I can explain my Gamma Town Read, and link you to the games I have played with him. That's it. When I reference his meta, I'm talking about games I have played with him. (Hint: I've already referenced two of them)

Did you read the games you asked for, LQ? What did you gain from reading those games?

Nope. It's dependent on you giving your read (and most importantly why) first.

No. Burden of proof is on you. Also you can just check my reads list in my ISO.

My vote isn't moving until I see why you are meta reading Gamma as Town.

So that would be the read.

Ran's defense of Gamma is completely unwarranted. He keeps saying it's a meta read, but he has yet to demonstrate how this game is any different that Gamma's other games. The reason I wanted people to look at Gamma's games is to show that Gamma is remarkably good at copying his Town meta. So then for Ran to just give these lame ass "reasons" for a "Meta Read" which isn't even a distinction between his Town and Scum games shows something funny is going on here.

That said, I asked Ran for his meta read on Gamma, and hopefully people see that Ran's meta read of Gamma is BS.

Trust me, he's improving. He's town though. I'll let him respond before I comment further.

What do you mean "he is improving"? Why do you feel Gamma's play is sub-par? From what I have seen, Gamma is a pretty competent player. I don't get this "oh, but he's getting better" angle. Like this is why I am SRing Gamma - because I feel like you are trying to say Gamma is just this helpless little player who can't do anything himself. So then you say he "new" and "improving" to say why he is Town. It doesn't make sense to me.

This is a weird turnabout, what changed your read on Ran and me? I want reason for both, and they should be specific for each of us.

Yeah, I agree it's a weird turnabout.

Basically, I already kinda touched on it and kinda predicted I would be wrong about it before I committed to the read in the first place when I said "when I am this sure of something, I am usually wrong."

But to answer your question, It was mostly that I saw I was focussing too much on a single aspect of something. That something was how you did your votes from game to game. I had assumed that Ran was just making up their meta read on you so that they could easily say you were Town without having to give details into why saying it was a meta read. My perspective changed when I saw that Ran could in fact back up what he was saying with regards to his meta read on you. I also took into account that on paper, Ran is really playing very very Pro-Town, so after thinking about it, I decided, once again, using Occam's Razor, that Ran was probably just Town because he was playing like a Townie would. This read was reinforced when I looked at one of the Scum games he linked. In that game, half of his posts were talking about how he would post later. He has done that very very little this game and the times he has done it, it hasn't been a string of "I'll post later", "sorry, I can't post now, I know I said I would but I will later" ect. and he has had a legit excuse for doing so, Namely, work. And he was still posting while at work as well. This is the exact opposite of what Marquis has been doing pretty much all game. To go along with this, Marquise has also NOT played Pro-Town like Ran has. BTW, you have played Pro-Town as well, so that would factor in as well. So once I realized that Ran was Town way more often than he was Scum here, and since he is so strong in his read on you, I think you can see that it's not that much of a jump to say that because Ran is Town, then it's very likely you are Town because of how strong his read on you is.

And I have been trying to see the reason in people's reads more this game. Usually I don't pay attention to, or don give credence to my TR's reads, but this game I am. For example, Postie said North is like lock Town. And since Postie flipped green, I can see that there is probably a good read there. Then I match up what I would read North as, which is the same read, so that read gets strengthened. This is the basic concept behind how I came up with the TR's I did, with a few exceptions. Those exceptions are found in Dunn, CES, Dan to a lesser extent, and most of all, Shea.

I want to know why KMD thought the wagon was bad early game.

Yeah, I hate to admit it because of what I said earlier about the wagon, but actually after reading that part of the game over, I think if Marquis flips Scum, that wagon is going to be very telling. I think it makes a few people look very good.

I have to say why I hate to admit it more though. I realize that my line of thinking is so contrary to what the norm is that it's borderline detrimental to Town. I have always been like this in Mafia and it's more annoying than you are probably thinking. I realize that by being so unconventional in what I am looking at compared to others that it's almost impossible for me to actually get a good grasp of what is going on in the game. Players like Llama, tho they don't back up what they are saying very well, have a much better understanding of what is going on in the game at the time. It pains me to admit that I am probably just slow in understanding things. It's really rather embarrassing.

Gamma, are you still feeling I am Scum?

Honestly not really. More recently while I wasn't a fan of your push on me and Ran it wasn't like your past play where I felt you were misrepping people. You were pushing things that were clearly there and you reconsidered when you saw evidence to the contrary.

Here, I'll help you out:


If your claim is that he "wolfy jumped in the thread" and made a vote based off of wanting to "push a wagon" you'd think maybe he'd have chosen actually a wagon, instead of just randomly throwing a vote at the wind in a place where no one else was.

More to the point, I find it deeply unsettling that you think this is the most important thing to go off of at this point. We have 10 whole pages bruh.

VOTE: gamma emerald

I thought others voted before him, huh
UNVOTE:

Also I'm not wild about the fact that your first instinct was to attack me instead of trying to figure out what I meant. As town when someone says something to me that on face doesn't make sense my first reaction is generally to try to clarify, not to fos them.

I thought you were trying to br obtuse, now I see you were right I'm no longer FOSing you

Ok but why are you voting dunn? Your vote for him is nonsense and there's a lot of scum motivation to park on the lurker who is literally doing nothing, and then make a big show about it as if you had some hyper special read on him and you didn't understand why others didn't. What do you think about the literal anything else thats happened in this game? Why do you think that dunn is the best vote when there is so much going on? Why were you unaware that it wasn't a wagon vote when you've placed your entire sorting efforts in this game into figuring out what happened in that one random early vote?

Okaaaay you're blowing this way out of proportion and I don't like it. I literally unvoted the second I realized my mistake. And the reason I thought there was a wagon there was I remembered votes on someone Llalmarble suspected, and knew some people were suspecting Marquis, so I thought the votes were on her. I get that there is some scumminess to what I did, but I didn't just votepark, I actually thought I had a point. And I've asked other questions and made other reads, so what I'm seeing here is you boiling down my content to one misguided push. Given that and the fact Something_Smart is telling me not to trust you, I feel comfortable with this.
VOTE: TheStatusQuo

This is one of the weirdest progressions I have ever seen..

IDK why Shea doesn't press Gamma on that mistake Gamma made more than this and instead later ends up TRing Gamma based on his 395 which I personally found severely lacking, and I don't get this rapid turn around from Gamma on Shea...

Someone said Gamma's 180 on Shea is Townie, I completely disagree. It makes me think there is a very real change of there being at least one Scum in Shea/Gamma. This is due to Shea's turnabout read on Gamma based on 395. It just doesn't seem like Gamma deserves to be let off the hook that easily.

People (pretty much everyone) are saying Gamma is Town here. Since I think there is one Scum in Shea/Gamma I'm going back to this:

VOTE: TSQ

These are some quotes of Quick pushing Gamma D2, D3, and pushing Shea wrt to his Gamma push in Day 1. I bring this up solely because, Gamma likes to use his own slot as a stepping stone for his scum mates to use and take a better position in the game. In the back of my mind, I thought "Ok, if LQ and Gamma are scum, we might be in a pickle." In Penguin Mafia Redux, Gamma slowed down his posting on purpose so I could agree with Transcend's points on Gamma, which made me think 'Ah, he is right, may be town then' when I was having problems with the Transcend slot. Turns out, they were cross bussing each other day 3 so that either one could get town credit based on that push. When I say Gamma is similar to there, I mean the tactical aspect of his play, or at least how it is associated to LQ. That idea was suddenly sparked when I see him and LQ, both people town reading CES, voting CES upon NSG's case. Shea comes in and reverses his read he has had on CES all game as well. They are openly wolfing here. Why, I don't know. Their votes on CES need a hard look in future days.

I need to ask you this same question that has been asked of me: why would we be that obvious? with two scum lynches ending the game what purpose does all of us being obvscum serve? This question made me reconsider CES!scum. As for what made me reconsider CES being town, I felt his activity overall had been for show when I realized his push on me didn't have much force behind it.
Also this is actually somewhat sensible so I'm going to drop the vitriol and just try to level with you here.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: LQ
At this point I'm honestly wanting this flip more, he's scummy, his scumminess matches past reconds of scumplay, and

honestly at first blush srceenplay doesn't seem half bad

You know what I think Dunn might just be that stupid but like
I still suspect him even without that part of things

These two posts were the only things that made me go 'uh oh'.

Why the first one? and for the second one that was a cross-game read, can explain if you really want to poke into it but it might take a bit

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum
I'm on board here

Gamma, in your town games, have you ever reversed a read on a solid town read you had all game like this?

Maybe? I have a lot of games, I think one is occurring to me though so I might look into that. I'm thinking of Mini 1923 currently as which one it happened in

[Gamma Emerald]

Withdrawing intent to hammer

Honestly I'm not so sure on CES here. Like I think if he were scum he'd be lynched cos his buddies would be trying to bus him for some sweet cred
So either he's not scum or he is and scum are on his wagon already

Who do you think are scum in the case of CESscum and CEStown and why?

CES!scum: probably Dave/Quick/Shea (wouldn't blame anyone for suspecting me using my own logic btw)
CES!town: probably one of the above plus Lycan, and thinking Marquis and Dunn could also be scum (Dunn's not a certainty though)
Will say I don't really suspect you that much anymore, now that you've clarified your read on me it's logical, but I want to know how quickly you made the connection to Mini 1911

[Gamma Emerald]

Quick: Same question. Who is scum on CEStown flip, and CESscum flip. In fact, everyone answer this. Ces scum = Ces, Shea, Quick.

Why is it those 3 and not, say, CES/me/Shea?

[Gamma Emerald]

Vote: Shea

I prefer this and I think this has the most support. Join me.

Reasoning if you haven't given it recently?

[Gamma Emerald]

Scum motivation: Be proactive Day 1 to have the appearance of being town. Interacts with scum mates, drops push the next day in favor of Eddie push. Once the players that can read him correctly are gone (Llama, RC) He becomes lazy. Has resorted to skimming. Isn't actually reading posts I link to him (since he had to ask NSG if I said anything about scum teams) Opportunistic vote on CES. (States CES is null but doesn't think he should go before Dunnstral, NSG, Marquis) Reason: Possibly because town won't punish Quick/Gamma/Shea for whatever they do so they make this aggressive play.

Town motivation: Looks for scum Day 1. Becomes lazy due to in real life reasons. I can't see any town motivation beyond that.

ok thanks
It looks interesting but I'm gonna sit on it while I catch up

[Gamma Emerald]

okay so if this shit isn't locked when i wake up i want lq's next post to have answers to my 3205 that he promised

if gamma is on and doesn't vote ces, he needs to say why and who is the lynch for the day

if shit is fucked, and this is a townflip there

must be

a pre-determined player that controls lylo come day 5.

i suggest

whoever is left tomorrow out of

{myself nsg gamma ranmaru}

come to a consensus day 4 who will choose the day 5 lynch. everyone that is town disputes this shit tomorrow because people that don't fall in line day 5 missed the train and claim scum.

don't even bother fighting me on this now. fuck you, do something productive with your life instead.

I haven't hammered cos I'm trying to think things over again before just jumping in since things weren't quite adding up
Honestly now that Ran's logic is clear I'm less resistant to voting CES again because I'm not worried about "why are scum being obv"

[Thestatusquo]

I think if CES flips scum it pretty much clears:
NSG, Lycanfire, davsto.

Lycan is less important because I was already heavily town reading them, but a ces scum flip would cause me to drastically rethink my NSG read because this doesn't feel like bussing on her part.

I think the people who would look bad with a ces scum flip are:
Ranmaru and Dunn.

CES town looks bad for: Me, NSG, Gamma.

[Thestatusquo]

Also the fact that Ran thinks I would be scum with a ces flip when I'm clearly the counter wagon here is bizarre. That's part of what doesn't make much sense with ranmaru if ces flips scum. He looks like he's doing everything he can to save a buddy and counter-wagoning someone who was not even on his scum reads lists before when he was declaring with absolute certainty the scum team was lq dan nsg.