Mini Normal 2335: Rainbows (Night 4)

[RationalMadman]

Spoiler: Madman

This random voting doesn't help tells. I don't get the point of it since people also intentionally avoid building wagons randomly from it.

Wagons matter, pure randoms don't.

In reference to your previous post, ending the day killing nobody isn’t optimal but I don’t have an issue with people who think it is.

Random voting is just something that happens, it’s a way to get conversation going. Sometimes an early wagon can help develop reads.

I can argue why it's superior game theory play for Town that DP1 ends in No Elim here rather than Scum.

The only time this becomes less true is with regulars who play hardball. Then softclaims and subtle buddying Vs bussing chaos can ensure to be read later.

I'm interested in reading the argument, but I don't think giving scum a free Day 1 is ever going to happen. I don't see how we could ever pressure anyone if the threat of elimination doesn't exist.

Okay. Threat of elimination comes day 2 instead of day 1.

Fast no elimination increases the odds Mafia can't read PRs vs vanillas but the price paid is lack of reads Town has on Mafia.

13 people. This is simple normal with a set 3 Vs 10 split where neither side is ever that powerful in an offensive manner.

3 people need only towntell DP1. 10 people need to townread 9 others and scumread at least 1 other as a majority while themselves Towntelling to the 9. This makes Town far more rigged against.

Let's say they land on Scum. Scum will presumably100% of the time if remotely competent, claim a PR to either get votes off of them or to entice Town PR to CC. However this 100% is ofc an illusion. We can say someone who is scum may claim vanilla as a double bluff.

Town usually ends up with 3 scenarios happening:

1. They forced Town PR to out while voting Scum (beat case scenario).
2. They vote off Town vanilla (bad but not as bad as scenario 3).
3. They vote off Town PR and not in an exchange where the PR got CCd (that's 1 for 1 it's zero sum trade) but instead in a scenario where the PR was unccd and assumed scum. (This is the worst case scenario).

To avoid scenario 1, the Town has to I crease likelihood of scenario 3. It's a toxic situation where they don't even ha e 1 night action report to guide the way things go.

The Scum gains more from DP1 playing out in full in PR reads and planning who to frame later based on who people already suspect. I am fairly immune to blindly stick tosuch biased but most players aren't. Most stick to DP1 reads all game and deny it's pure stubbornness rather than reinforced reasoning to the reads. This lets Scum navigate nightkills to frame others and easily glide to DP4 even if partner was voted off DP1. Again and again and again this happens in general. People think it's just part of the game but it all is because they gained far more from DP1 nonsense talks happening and focused on who suspects who and kept it nicely surrounding them.

This strategy sounds nice in a vacuum, but requiring the entirety of the town to play optimally, let alone without confirmation bias, is a bit of pipe dream. And I don't see why town wouldn't just treat Day 2 as the "real" Day 1 in this scenario and do all the things that you want town to avoid during Day 1.

They'd have a nightkills choice and potentially a report of some kind to go off of. Either way, by their Day 2 they may have 2 actions instead of 1 to begin basing things off of, if they're voting a PR who outs.

I said I knew people won't go for it in my first post. I said it to see reactions to it though I do advocate for it.

[RationalMadman]

I have a red check on robbnva

Is this your way of saying you scumread him?

[RationalMadman]

Hu Tao vs Robbvna

It seems forced in some way, however HT may be genuinely irritated at Robb's reasoning and act this way.


Halfasleep vs me

I am unsure what is going on there. HA went from scumreading trying to lead Town to trying to lead Town to vote me with NO OTHER reads at all outed.

I won't speculate much more on it but it's strange to me. Idk what I'm even meant to defend against or reply to anymore from HA as my defense resulted in being voted.

[RationalMadman]

Roden and Charles seem towniest to me, Jackson Virgo is close to it but can easily do bursts of that and just chill between it, it's a strategy to towntell and then chill out.

My nullread pile is nearly everyone else.

Potential scum just because they aren't Towntelling to me at all so far are Halfasleep and Robbvna.

I am pretty sure I can be wrong on both and in my nullreads are all 3. I think 1 of the 2 can be in the team though, I doubt both are.

[RationalMadman]

Robbnva* not vna

[Ausuka]

VOTECOUNT 1.2

awesomeming327 (1)

- T3

BlackStar (1)

- KayJayQueue

Hu Tao (1)

- Robbnva

KayJayQueue (1)

- JacksonVirgo

Not_Mafia (1)

- Not_Mafia

RationalMadman (1)

- halfasleep

T3 (1)

- Roden

Not Voting (6)

- awesomeming327, BlackStar, Charles310, Hu Tao, LoveKilling, RationalMadman

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-05-16 20:40:00).

[RationalMadman]

I’m having deja vu of something I can’t talk about lol

That being said, the m-word

(meta)

tells me RM is likely town. This is familiar.

not a huge fan of meta, but I was notorious for being able to replicate my town play as scum. I do get town vibes from them as well though.

This seems like positioning so that you can't detach from both backing the Townread on me and also from discrediting it at the same time.

[RationalMadman]

So that you can* autocorrect

[RationalMadman]

I am actually more in favor of a quick elimination vs a no elimination. While you make good arguments, they are ones I have seen in the past and I still think eliminating somebody is better for the overall ability to find scum.

I won't argue back much as I know it's a waste of time and energy because people here are deadset on DP1 votes.

Thre is a pseudotheory that wagon analysis matters a lot. Often one partner busses or refuses to vote Town, it's very rare both make themselves obvious through vote patterns etc.

The only thing wagons help with is that often a bussing partner is either at the apex beginning (leading vote) or the last 2-3 votes of a vote on their partner. Even that is a pseudotheory as they could have voted in the middle purely hoping to make people suspect scum is pushing on their partner due to how fast the wagon built.

DP1 vote analysis is not pseudo but is merely a small part of the equation. So much depends on so much else when analysing votes.

[Robbnva]

I’m having deja vu of something I can’t talk about lol

That being said, the m-word

(meta)

tells me RM is likely town. This is familiar.

not a huge fan of meta, but I was notorious for being able to replicate my town play as scum. I do get town vibes from them as well though.

This seems like positioning so that you can't detach from both backing the Townread on me and also from discrediting it at the same time.

I mean if that’s how you feel I can’t change that but meta use has always been pretty unreliable. Good players can copy their town play as scum (at least back when I used to play). That’s not an opinion, just facts.

[Robbnva]

Later in the game, wagon analysis matters a lot. A lot of my theory though is based on 4 years ago. No idea what current trends are but quick wagons tend to make scum nervous because they don’t know if they should stay on or get off.

[RationalMadman]

I’m having deja vu of something I can’t talk about lol

That being said, the m-word

(meta)

tells me RM is likely town. This is familiar.

not a huge fan of meta, but I was notorious for being able to replicate my town play as scum. I do get town vibes from them as well though.

This seems like positioning so that you can't detach from both backing the Townread on me and also from discrediting it at the same time.

I mean if that’s how you feel I can’t change that but meta use has always been pretty unreliable. Good players can copy their town play as scum (at least back when I used to play). That’s not an opinion, just facts.

I meant can not can't (corrected it after).

If you understood the message correctly, you'd understand the issue is you're saying I'm towny yet discrediting it also.

[RationalMadman]

Later in the game, wagon analysis matters a lot. A lot of my theory though is based on 4 years ago. No idea what current trends are but quick wagons tend to make scum nervous because they don’t know if they should stay on or get off.

They make Town way more nervous assuming the wagon isn't on scum.

[RationalMadman]

Because if the wagon is on Scum, then yes Scum are just as nervous.

[RationalMadman]

I never understand if Scum and Town are proper nouns or lowercase.

[Robbnva]

I am saying you are townie but discrediting your use of Meta. I openly admit that. People can act town or seem town while doing things I don’t agree with.

[Robbnva]

Off topic. I wish there was a way to click on the thread and go back to my last post or at least go to the very last post.

[LoveKilling]

I am actually more in favor of a quick elimination vs a no elimination. While you make good arguments, they are ones I have seen in the past and I still think eliminating somebody is better for the overall ability to find scum.

I won't argue back much as I know it's a waste of time and energy because people here are deadset on DP1 votes.

Thre is a pseudotheory that wagon analysis matters a lot. Often one partner busses or refuses to vote Town, it's very rare both make themselves obvious through vote patterns etc.

The only thing wagons help with is that often a bussing partner is either at the apex beginning (leading vote) or the last 2-3 votes of a vote on their partner. Even that is a pseudotheory as they could have voted in the middle purely hoping to make people suspect scum is pushing on their partner due to how fast the wagon built.

DP1 vote analysis is not pseudo but is merely a small part of the equation. So much depends on so much else when analysing votes.

So if I'm understanding correctly wagon analysis is putting pressure on someone semi-random to see how they react. But the problem with this can be some could be inherently nervous due to them having a fun role or just never been good with pressure. In this type of mafia I think the wagon method is something that can risk losing a game due to reads being formed around it.

[Hu Tao]

Rational is probably town

[RationalMadman]

I am saying you are townie but discrediting your use of Meta. I openly admit that. People can act town or seem town while doing things I don’t agree with.

Okay... I assume you meant to say discrediting KJQ's use of meta since she is the one metareading me Town in the post you rebuked.

It isn't really in my best interest to question why you're townreading me since that can lead to you going back on it but that needs clarification later because clearly it isn't based on comparing my behaviour to other games I've been in.

[Robbnva]

sorry, when I am posting from my phone I can get mixed up, plus I hadn't had my caffeine yet lol

why do you think asking me why I town read you, would cause me to go back on that read? I don't understand that logic.

I feel like your play so far has been pretty genuine, It's a little wifom but I also don't see scum talk about no lynching on day one because historically, that draws negative attention on them.

[Not_Mafia]

I have a red check on robbnva

Well then, it's confirmed VOTE: robbnva

[RationalMadman]

sorry, when I am posting from my phone I can get mixed up, plus I hadn't had my caffeine yet lol

why do you think asking me why I town read you, would cause me to go back on that read? I don't understand that logic.

I feel like your play so far has been pretty genuine, It's a little wifom but I also don't see scum talk about no lynching on day one because historically, that draws negative attention on them.

Attention is good whether you are scum or town. Hiding in the background is a noob strat.

It's stressful and can cause drama but keeping attention on you gives you influence even if it's negative influence. Mafia is a game where other than PR actions, all players have one primary power; influence.

I said what I said for the sake of it, so you shouldn't Townread it. I said it for reactions as I predicted the no elimination wouldn't happen. It's also why I haven't bothered voting for no elimination as a wagon of 1 for it is a futile joke.

[RationalMadman]

The reactions help me read.

[Robbnva]

I am not town reading you just for that, your play overall just feels town to me. It's day 1 so reads aren't going to be that strong, anyway. I am also rusty and I am not really used to developing town reads, but I am trying to not fall back into my old habits. That is why I have essentially ignored NM and not going as aggressive on Hu Tao as I would have in the past.