Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[Imperium]

I'm trying to frame the game in some way that makes sense, and there's nothing. So there you go.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. You had the choice to work with people or manipulate them. This is where the latter path leads.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I don't have this problem in other games. But sure, it's a me thing, whatever you say.

[Imperium]

You're undoubtedly a good player - my criticism is not of you in other games, my criticism is of you right here and right now.

[SirCakez]

Mush I think you just need to go for it whatever you feel
Not every game is some puzzle that can be solved
Especially not with the flips we have

[SirCakez]

I kinda told Lotus the same thing and it got us scum!Duchess flipped
Overthinking can be a disservice

[Imperium]

I agree 100%. You're trying to do too much here. Just try to shoot scum.

[Imperium]

Don't need to make the perfect shot. Just try to shoot scum.

[Imperium]

Also think a big issue is the lens you’d looking through. You’re kinda putting some of your thought in absolute terms without understanding why those terms are less likely.

So for instance saying things like imperium’s alignment is the same as cakes or petapans is going to mess up your view if we’re not. Both of these pairs could easily be unaligned, but your underlying assumption is potentially misdirecting you.

I do think I share a alignment with cakez, but I don’t think I do with peta.

I think that as long you’re focused on possible pairs with incorrect assumptions, your entire solve is going to feel off.

[Imperium]

We gave up on it in the 3rd quarter and switched to the umbrella academy lol

!!!!!!!!!

I just started watching this this week! But don’t spoil me because I’m still early in season one, but I like it a lot so far.

(Not as much as Attack on Titan which nacho just introduced me to and I’m absolutely obsessed with, but I like it a lot.)

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Take a look at the problem from my perspective, though. The only slot. Literally, the /only/ one. That I actually, truly think flips red?

Cakez.

And /no one agrees with it except Wheme/.

You are mistaken about what I'm trying to do, in terms of the perfect shot. That was projecting confidence I didn't have to buy time and mislead scum as to how well I was doing. I am not confident in any shot. Everything is a shot in the dark. "Just shoot scum" does not work in this circumstance, because I have lost my ability to see the game that is being played. I'm listing off reads that seem plausible to me and everyone else in the game reacts like I have called the IC scum.

That means IF I make a shot I'm almost certainly going to miss. And not ordinarily miss, but catastrophically miss, because I cannot see what is happening in the game at /all/. It's all noise.

PEDIT: You're literally just running into the points where I'm making shit up while I try and get any idea what the hell is happening, Imperium. I literally don't have enough of a handle on the gamestate to say anything about it at all right now. THIS IS THE ISSUE.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

The last time I had a handle on the gamestate was about 24 hours before Lotus shot Duchess. Go look for yourself, me losing the plot should be evident.

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

Yeah Mush I get what you're doing but it's hard to get too absorbed into a debate with you when in the end if you shoot someone wrong then they get the gun and can just ice the entire scum team

Soo it's like, I don't want you to kill yourself, but faced with a choice of spending hours convincing you on one read, or just letting you shoot and seeing what happens... Idk I know you want big dramatic moments to feel good about a solve, but I just wanna shoot scum or die tryin lol


Pedit:
Wait what

Shoot cakez then lmao

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

I liked attack on titan season 1 a ton. But I really fell off on that series after the start of 2. I think the premise works less well when (spoiler spoiler spoiler)

Conversely so far umbrella academy just gets better for me

[SirCakez]

If you're so lost then just shoot the most universally scumread person
That's the best way to progress the game

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

#wolfing

[Imperium]

I liked attack on titan season 1 a ton. But I really fell off on that series after the start of 2. I think the premise works less well when (spoiler spoiler spoiler)

Conversely so far umbrella academy just gets better for me

Season 4 is sooooooo good so far!

[Imperium]

Season 2 is definitely a weak point of the show but then season 3 and 4 hits and it's much much better

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

Hmm really? Maybe I should just power through

[ScrewTheTells]

This is why I dislike it when people put so much weight on "solves". It's nice but not necessary to solve the whole thing before making the optimal move.

Shoot the player with the highest total scum-probability. Many times, the scummiest player is scummy even without associative evidence with others. Looking for connections between players is great, but I would only focus on that regarding someone you're about to shoot. You must know what I mean if I explain this in probabilistic terms. If your reason for sorting A is dependent on B's alignment, then you just compounded the error rate of reading B with error of reading that they're aligned with A. Try to do this for the entire scum team or enough players for a PoE and you'll almost certainly go wrong, somewhere. So you shouldn't expect a completely perfect "solve" that easily.

Preview edit: this applies even if, or rather especially, if you're unsure. Because if you lack evidence then any "solve" is probably gonna go wrong anyway. Shooting the top scum regardless of the rest of the "solve" is probably a lot less error-prone, even if both have higher margins of error than you'd like.

That said I absolutely hate the Cakez shot. It would be "criminal", as you say. Instead, please shoot Not_mafia for all previously stated reasons. Or HUB who's jumping for joy at the possibility of you shooting Cakez. I'm pretty sure they're scum, I wouldn't even lose sleep over the decision if I were you.

Btw Happy Unbirthday Goon, I don't think you answered my question about catching up to the game yet? Can I assume your reads are up to date with the real-time game now?

[Imperium]

Take a look at the problem from my perspective, though. The only slot. Literally, the /only/ one. That I actually, truly think flips red?

Cakez.

And /no one agrees with it except Wheme/.

You are mistaken about what I'm trying to do, in terms of the perfect shot. That was projecting confidence I didn't have to buy time and mislead scum as to how well I was doing. I am not confident in any shot. Everything is a shot in the dark. "Just shoot scum" does not work in this circumstance, because I have lost my ability to see the game that is being played. I'm listing off reads that seem plausible to me and everyone else in the game reacts like I have called the IC scum.

That means IF I make a shot I'm almost certainly going to miss. And not ordinarily miss, but catastrophically miss, because I cannot see what is happening in the game at /all/. It's all noise.

PEDIT: You're literally just running into the points where I'm making shit up while I try and get any idea what the hell is happening, Imperium. I literally don't have enough of a handle on the gamestate to say anything about it at all right now. THIS IS THE ISSUE.

So. My point on manipulating versus working with people is that you've muddied the waters to an extent where I don't know what you believe and I no longer have the patience to figure it out. If you approached this game in a different way, we'd be hashing out reads and going back and forth on them and developing them, but you've alienated yourself by taking the games and the fake confidence and the whatever to the extent that you have.

As far as the "to shoot Cakez or not to shoot Cakez" bit goes, have a slightly edited quote from Levi:

Believe in yourself… or believe in me and them…the rest of the town. I don’t know the answer. I never have. Whether you trust in your own strength…or trust in the choices made by reliable comrades. No one knows what the outcome will be. So as much as you can… choose whatever you’ll regret the least.

[Imperium]

Happy Unbirthday Goon,

Well played sir.

[Imperium]

The last time I had a handle on the gamestate was about 24 hours before Lotus shot Duchess. Go look for yourself, me losing the plot should be evident.

Losing the plot sucks and is never fun.

I’ve been sitting here for a few minutes trying to figure out what I want to say but I’m extremely hungover today and have been in a conference all weekend, and my brain is absolute mush.

I’m not sure what to do with making up thoughts to get a handle though. I do know that every time I’ve lost the plot in a game, I’m working with incorrect assumptions, I’m forgetting some key pieces of info I recognized at one point, I’m trying to townread/scumread someone I shouldn’t or the teams presented don’t make sense.

Interaction analysis is an art form that very few people actually are skilled at, especially with as few flips that we’ve had. If you’re trying for a solve through that you might be causing yourself more trouble. Maybe consider who you think is the scummiest independently. And try not to get too bogged down in what they might do if you shoot and they’re town and what they might do with that shot.

You can only do your best, and you can’t control what comes after if you’re wrong on your shot. And it doesn’t matter. Nobody is going to blame you if we end up losing in the end. You did your best and that’s all that matters.

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

I do not shoot with my hand. He who shoots with his hand has forgotten the face of his father.
I shoot with my mind.

I do not kill with my gun. He who kills with his gun has forgotten the face of his father.
I kill with my heart.

[Imperium]

Love you Krazy. Been a while since I've read those books though!

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Take a look at the problem from my perspective, though. The only slot. Literally, the /only/ one. That I actually, truly think flips red?

Cakez.

And /no one agrees with it except Wheme/.

You are mistaken about what I'm trying to do, in terms of the perfect shot. That was projecting confidence I didn't have to buy time and mislead scum as to how well I was doing. I am not confident in any shot. Everything is a shot in the dark. "Just shoot scum" does not work in this circumstance, because I have lost my ability to see the game that is being played. I'm listing off reads that seem plausible to me and everyone else in the game reacts like I have called the IC scum.

That means IF I make a shot I'm almost certainly going to miss. And not ordinarily miss, but catastrophically miss, because I cannot see what is happening in the game at /all/. It's all noise.

PEDIT: You're literally just running into the points where I'm making shit up while I try and get any idea what the hell is happening, Imperium. I literally don't have enough of a handle on the gamestate to say anything about it at all right now. THIS IS THE ISSUE.

So. My point on manipulating versus working with people is that you've muddied the waters to an extent where I don't know what you believe and I no longer have the patience to figure it out. If you approached this game in a different way, we'd be hashing out reads and going back and forth on them and developing them, but you've alienated yourself by taking the games and the fake confidence and the whatever to the extent that you have.

As far as the "to shoot Cakez or not to shoot Cakez" bit goes, have a slightly edited quote from Levi:

Believe in yourself… or believe in me and them…the rest of the town. I don’t know the answer. I never have. Whether you trust in your own strength…or trust in the choices made by reliable comrades. No one knows what the outcome will be. So as much as you can… choose whatever you’ll regret the least.

I can help you with the "what I believe" part very easily. I have some small faith that Cakez is scum, and that's it. Since near the end of Day 2, I've been throwing reads that look plausible to me at the wall and seeing how other people react. I don't believe in them, no, but they look like they aren't totally divorced from reality. If I had gotten reasonable reactions from enough people, I could use those to force my perspective to fit that, then rebuild from there. Unfortunately, the reads are indeed totally divorced from reality.

I wasn't joking about not being able to see what others see early in the game. Before the end of Day 2 I had townreads on you and unwnd, and at some point I lost them. And then I had no way to parse the game through someone else, because I had no townreads at all.

Have you ever had no townreads at ELo-1? Because that's functionally where I've been at this whole dayphase.

PEDIT: I'm not trying for a solve. I'm trying to figure out what is going on on a much, much more basic level.