Micro 1089: the coalition, again [game over]

[Thestatusquo]

tbh I kind of struggle with the idea that no one likes me very much pretty constantly but its not really a good thing to bring out in the context of a mafia game because like what are people supposed to do with that information?

At a baseline I kind of feel like this about all sorts of AtE posting like this because I'm not sure what Isis wants me to do with this here when I know scum post like this all the time because grabbing for empathy works in a game like mafia when the people you're playing with are all baseline good human beings which I think is true about everyone here with the possible exception of myself.

But at the same time it forces me to try to make a judgement call about whether I think Isis' self perception is real or not because like the claim that she has been out in these streets posting all her uncensored thoughts and just being ignored clashes so heavily with my perception of Isis this game that I find it really hard to give it credence but at the same time I really don't want to like deny someone's lived experience especially when they're legitimately feeling upset so I kind of just feel like my only option in spots like this is to just ignore it completely because either I am a terrible person or I become extremely exploitable and I don't like those choices.

[Thestatusquo]

I think you can be pretty confident I'm not teamed with bulge which will be fun if bulge ever flips red and I said this.

[Thestatusquo]

I feel like the reaskns to Tread fire are gamestate reads and the reasons to Tread other slots are direct analysis and that's default better

Hellbooks made me laugh so she's town
Aristeia wallposted on page 14 so shes town
Idk
If fire is town I'm sorry for my persistent skepticism

I am skeptical of the methodological difference between game state reasons and direct analysis and I'm not really entirely sure what you mean by it or how you could separate the two.

[Thestatusquo]

It's ironic because I feel you entire worldview is based on being reactionary to my scum read on you but I've talked a whole shit ton about other things in this game and really have only come back to you when you've brought my scum read up. Which you've been doing constantly.

Are we ignoring 1296?

Yeah I meant to respond to that and then just kind of got distracted.

[Thestatusquo]

I think the biggest thing stuck in my craw about you skitter is that you seem to be approaching me from the perspective of like oh I have to oppose shea rather than the perspective of oh I disagree so we can maybe figure out why. That post from you felt like the first time you've been actively interested in engaging with me instead of just like coming in blasting.

In particular I don't really understand your perspective on the initial ari me interaction because it felt like you came in like oh ari is town that I must defend when there wasn't really anything on which to base a town read on at all as ari hadn't been very present outside of fluff posting and the stuff I was basing my read on so it felt like there was no curiosity from you as to if this was town v town or whatever you just came in with an assumption of ari town and started blasting at me from my PoV.

Do you want to explain your PoV to me in that spot because its the biggest part about how you've played this game that I'm having trouble seeing from a town pov.

[Thestatusquo]

I think theres some chance that people not wanting to be in the coalition stems from them knowing that the coalition becomes defacto the PoE if it fails and if they know its gunna fail they don't want both them and their partner in that PoE.

Not sure exactly what this means for individuals rather than just theory crafting but its a thought I just had.

[Thestatusquo]

You know what maybe that's looking a gift horse in the mouth compared to other coalitions I like even less

Pedit1
Yeah but if you get 2 scum in the coalition you win most of the time so.. idk if it actually works that way

What

[Thestatusquo]

Please explain that math because I don't think that's true at all.

[Thestatusquo]

I think theres some chance that people not wanting to be in the coalition stems from them knowing that the coalition becomes defacto the PoE if it fails and if they know its gunna fail they don't want both them and their partner in that PoE.

Not sure exactly what this means for individuals rather than just theory crafting but its a thought I just had.

I think generally if one scum is found in the coalition the pool broadens to both halves

I understand this but like is it not true that hitting 2/5 is easier than hitting 1/5?

[Thestatusquo]

Like mathematically having 2 scum in the coalition is just much worse for scum in terms of hitting the first scum and as long as town isnt stupid and broadens the pool appropriately after that they don't really gain anything from doing so.

[Thestatusquo]

Like part of what ruffles me about Isis mathematical claims is that she's like saying oh if you have all these assumptions about what town does that may or may not be true and something something gamblers fallacy then scum actually shouldn't care about being both in the coalition while ignoring the fundamental fact that 40% is greater than 20%.

And like maybe that's a real oversight but it's a pretty big one.

[Thestatusquo]

I think you all have the incentives backwards. I think scum wants to have one person in the pool exactly and there's really no reason for them to fight to do that because it's likely going to happen naturally and they don't have to actually worry about it until a specific coalition starts gaining real steam.

On the other hand i think town at the least SHOULD have a very clear incentive to want to be in the coalition because from a pure mathematical perspective that is the coalition that is most likely to succeed from their pov.

[Thestatusquo]

Even if you think everyone in your coalition is 99% to be town that is still more likely to fail from your pov than a coalition that contains you.

This is the way I've been approaching it and the incentives seem really clear to me.

[Thestatusquo]

Skitters point is you should probably aim for 2 scum in the coalition so that if one of your slots surprisingly falls from grace you don't instant lose

I think this ignores how messy the process is from a how it actually happens perspective and overstates the effectiveness of self advocacy by a wide margin.

[Thestatusquo]

Do you think I'm lying about math as mafia? I would never do that, not ethically but because it's like the most awful imaginable play like definitionally

No, I think you're coming up with vaguely plausible sounding arguments with math that you're not thinking very hard about because you don't care if they're right or not.

[Thestatusquo]

I think scum doesnt particularly care abt who's in the coalition until it starts to coalesce, at whicu point they really care

I think it's better 1in 1out but idk if i've ever played a run where scum were purposefully aiming for that outcome, i think it's normally just trying for at least one getting in

I think from town's pov obv you ideally want to get in mathematically but if forcing that makes it less likely that you get the rest of ur reads in, it isnt beneficial to. This is generally my approach

I think thats a reasonable approach but I find it alarming that people seemed to come in with the approach of "I'm not going to advocate for myself from the very start" because I think that approach is just strictly incorrect from town PoV whereas I don't think it is from a scum PoV.

I have no problem with people being like ok I'm not going to get into the coalition now that I've seen where everyone is going so I'll support the one I think is highest EV but not even trying seems just very bad from town and kind of fine for scum.

[Thestatusquo]

If theres one thing I love in games of mafia its people telling me I'm dumb repeatedly.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea this is honestly curiosity like I don't know what the question accomplishes but have you ever found anything about my slot towny besides an associative issue with a certain scumflip?

Pedit: skitter were you in the closed setup I ran that was secretly coalition. It was lit

I don't have like a rolodex of your actions in my head or anything and I'm not a big "take notes" kind of player so I don't think I can answer this accurately 100% but off the top of my head I don't recall a specific thing you've done that made me be like "oh this is townie isis" no.

[Thestatusquo]

Well i'm more going for the 'trying to explain my pov' approach but i apologize if it came off that way

I was mostly talking to Ari. I feel like they've gone out of their way to call me bad or dumb a couple of times now and like while I understand that they're trying to couch it in terms of the game we're playing I would still appreciate if if she would stop.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea this is honestly curiosity like I don't know what the question accomplishes but have you ever found anything about my slot towny besides an associative issue with a certain scumflip?

Pedit: skitter were you in the closed setup I ran that was secretly coalition. It was lit

I don't have like a rolodex of your actions in my head or anything and I'm not a big "take notes" kind of player so I don't think I can answer this accurately 100% but off the top of my head I don't recall a specific thing you've done that made me be like "oh this is townie isis" no.

I think I went into this in some detail in this post:

I'm actually incredibly worried about you. I don't know whenever I've watched you play on alts there's been an undercurrent to your posting which felt like pure information dumps of your thoughts. Even if they were couched in weird gimmick alt stuff.

Idk if it's the structure of the gimmick that forces you to post like this because it's like the only way you can actually convey real information but I'm not getting that same feel from you here. I'm getting like this weird sense that you're just observing and then asking questions that push the thread narrative where you want it to go.

So like it's not like I'm scum reading you exactly but I'm not town reading you and given my experience moderating your gimmick alt games I kinda expected to be able to town read you.

But I kind of feel this way about most of your posts. I feel this is in like a pervasive systemic way whenever I see you posting. Your recent posting perhaps even more strongly than before because the AtE stuff fits very neatly into this perspective as well.

[Thestatusquo]

I am saying when you use language like "your takes are level zero" and "you don't understand x" or "you are really bad" it makes me feel like crap and if you do not want to stop saying those things I can't make you. I can only communicate how you're making me feel.

[Thestatusquo]

I was trying to explain that your perspective of me shaping my whole game around discrediting you in particular is not a line I would be likely to take given your current position in the game state.

Choosing someone to attack and then refuse to explain why on a player who is not currently a keystone of the thread discourse (and I think you will admit you were not exactly shaping the thread at that point) is actually as far out of my scum range as I get because its not really something I would do as scum because I prefer to focus on maximizing thread power and I don't generally need to make shit up when I'm scum. I genuinely had a meta tell on you that I don't want to explain. Granted if I were scum and I saw that tell I might go for it but I don't think so because I think the thread reaction to "I have a meta tell on X but I won't explain it" is incredibly predictable and its very unlikely to lead to a miselim.

I'm sorry if you felt like that was minimizing you as a person it wasn't intended to. It was simply intended to state that as scum I would not make the play I was making. Which is all self meta anyway. I appreciate you taking the time to feel my perspective on those posts here.

[Thestatusquo]

I for one am shocked that the person who has put more effort into scum claiming this game than finding reads is being scum read.

[Thestatusquo]

I find it very hard to believe that bulge has any more scum equity than anyone else and hes a very convenient name to point to for someone who wants a non-controversial take.

[Thestatusquo]

lim the lurker is boring and doesnt work.

[Thestatusquo]

Except that one time that dwlee was actually scum I'll never forgive them for that.

[Thestatusquo]

Oh shit its my avatars birthday. Thats kind of like it being my birthday.

[Thestatusquo]

idk I'm finding the bit is starting to wear extremely thin on me.

[Thestatusquo]

Like is that post really funny the 15th time she makes it?

(hellbooks I am not subtweeting you this is not a hellbooks subtweet)

[Thestatusquo]

teehee

[Thestatusquo]

I mainly just wanted to make fun of hellbooks for openly and admittedly having three jokes but isis took a stray for me to make that post.

[Thestatusquo]

I find it very hard to believe that bulge has any more scum equity than anyone else and hes a very convenient name to point to for someone who wants a non-controversial take.

My pov on this is massively different when I have so much of the game's consensus scum equity [and I need to widen this damn limpool]

Tbh another thing that is bothering me is I feel like your reaction here is massively overblown to the amount of pressure you've actually received and the number of people who actually have listed you as an actual scum read. I said I wasn't town reading you. I don't think there's a bunch of people out there listing you as their number one scum read and so for you to go full oh everyone thinks I'm scum not a single person thinks I'm town feels premature to me.

And like that's not scummy in and of itself because like I've certainly done similar things as town when I'm reading the room as being against me and felt I needed to go into drastic be townie mode it's what you're doing with it that I feel is kinda weird. Like, the AtE stuff which seemed to be designed to actively make people feel bad for suspecting you followed by lets push the lurker slot feel like you're using this overreaction to shape narratives too which I don't like.

At a baseline level all I want is actual analysis from you and you keep refusing to give it while making jokes about how you're scum and pushing thread discourse places I don't like.

To throw up your hands and be like welp guess I have to default my worldview to the lurker slot being scum and decide a read on someone else because they're unlikely to be scum with the lurker slot is just not gameplay that helps us at all. And you KNOW that.

[Thestatusquo]

I find it very hard to believe that bulge has any more scum equity than anyone else and hes a very convenient name to point to for someone who wants a non-controversial take.

it works sometimes in coalition. sometimes scum just get kinda left behind

I'm not saying that bulge is never scum, though I think I listed some reasons why I independently found him to be kinda townie when he was here.

It's that going there as the default and then going even further and saying a skitter town read is partially based off of them not being partners with bulge is just weird man.

[Thestatusquo]

Like is that post really funny the 15th time she makes it?

(hellbooks I am not subtweeting you this is not a hellbooks subtweet)

Shea unfortunately I just do not think I am very funny and make humor without an expectation anyone will find it funny

It's actually a big insecurity for me.

I don't think anyone found it funny the first or second time

I frequently do find you funny though.

[Thestatusquo]

Can you explain that? I don't think my read is dependent on Ari's alignment so I'd like to hear why you think it is.

[Thestatusquo]

i think that if you vs ari is tvs then thats a towny post and if you vs ari is tvt then its a scummy post but maybe you disagree i guess

I'd like the reason for why its a townie post or a scummy post in those worlds pls and thank you.

[Thestatusquo]

I find that argument pretty persuasive tbh.

I havent gone back and thought about that interaction in a bit.

[Thestatusquo]

I would consider voting for that coalition.

[Thestatusquo]

I feel iffy on tris and skitter.

and then everyone keeps telling me I'm wrong about sheep so maybe sheep too but I don't feel super iffy on any of them.

[Thestatusquo]

where is this one

[Thestatusquo]

he does look kinda mean.

[Thestatusquo]

I really do not understand Isis declaration of hellbooks townie there.

[Thestatusquo]

If you could explain the tris town read to me I would very much appreciate it. The only reasoning I personally have for it is that I feel like the threadspew thing is kinda true and so I want to town bin it to just not think about it anymore but I think the closest thing I got to a coherent explanation was that tris has more trouble being present and "vibing" as scum and I would really like if someone could give me a citation for that claim since I've never experienced scumtris. But secondly I kind of at the time felt like the vibing was kind of tentative and muted compared to a previous tris town experience and more to the point she's basically been not present at all for the second half of this game and I don't think I could tell you off hand a single thing she thinks without looking at her iso so I worry that if she's not thread spewed I don't really have a lot of reason for why she's town at all.

If you want to like break that down for me so I can feel better about the read I would appreciate it.

[Thestatusquo]

I really do not understand Isis declaration of hellbooks townie there.

-1805 seems hard to fake.

-fmpov it's 9 in the afternoon right now and her posting largely disrupts a coalition that already includes her hypothetical partner unless her partner is bulge exactly and I don't think bulge exactly is particularly unlikely but it's only 12.5% y'know, er 1/7th a little higher

-adam sandlar avatar immediately promotes these feelings of trust

I think this post gives hellbooks more credit for "having a plan" than she usually does.

[Thestatusquo]

No that is helpful frfr.

[Thestatusquo]

I think the catchup stuff is something I hadn't been considering but I do think the progression coming from 1664 is pretty townie feeling.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm waffling on sheep because people keep saying I'm wrong on him and I havent really seen him much as scum but I guess for me a thing I look for is there real novel thoughts on people being wolfy or villagery on specific posts that come sort of random and without prompting and I guess that really hasn't been there as we continue further into the game.

[Thestatusquo]

but a weird point is I think sheep kind of knows that I read him this way from previous games and maybe he'd be putting more effort into fooling me by doing exactly that if he were scum but idk that's really awkward and self referencing logic.

[Thestatusquo]

I also read his investment in the game here as more wolfy than townie now that I think about it but thats hard to like really get a firm read on because he could just be uninvested as town but when he's town he tends to post in these staccato bursts like he'll make a post and then he'll be back 3 minutes later to make another post because he just was hit by another thought and he can't stop himself from posting it and then maybe he'll be back 3 minutes later with another thought and the more I dig into my mental space about how I town read sheep the more I am realizing he doesn't really fit that pattern here.

[Thestatusquo]

I dont think my claim is that he would play to snow me specifically but if he knows I kind of find a specific easily fakeable thing he does to be townie when he does it the town read from me seems pretty free to acquire doesn't it?

I guess since I town read him super early he wouldn't feel the need so much. idk.

[Thestatusquo]

Honestly I'm kind of flattered that people think this might be my scum range because I think I am actually incredibly far outside of it so it's pretty nice that people think I could fake my play this game as scum.

[Thestatusquo]

There was that data study that showed scum post in bursts more than town did you read that it was in MD or something

No but it certainly does not fit my playstyle so I am skeptical of making that kind of system level read when it doesn't apply at all frequently.

[Thestatusquo]

I dont think I've ever seen sheep post a wall in my life.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm waffling on sheep because people keep saying I'm wrong on him and I havent really seen him much as scum but I guess for me a thing I look for is there real novel thoughts on people being wolfy or villagery on specific posts that come sort of random and without prompting and I guess that really hasn't been there as we continue further into the game.

To expand on this more I want to say that I think sheep frequently comes at the game from what I would describe as odd angles. What I mean by that is that he thinks about the posts of other players in ways that don't seem completely immediately obvious to me and frequently come across as counter intuitive. That means when he's town I see a lot of thoughts from him that other players have not had yet and I tend to notice that. But when I dig into the reasoning behind the posts I can usually agree that they're at least a reasonable line of thought to have and more importantly that he believes it.

[Thestatusquo]

sheep town

tris is like probably town. I was like very weirdly not into her early isis read at all which largely caused me to make my above doompost. but her overall vibe is still very good; for someone who supposedly struggles more to be natural as wolf, she is prob just town. In garlic bread I correctly found her as town partly for her "doing her own thing" townily and I think the insistent question-asking here sort of resembles that.

fire reluctantly I would say is starting to sometimes feel town. one cool example is I think the way he pulls on experience from past coalition games for insight is genuine. like the way he used the logic of "these people aren't w/w because of how they'd be setting themselves up for d1 loss" was actually so "wait woah" to me that it made me first flip the switch
one thing that just made me feel hesitant at the last second was his recent hellbooks townread explanation. honestly that felt like complete bogus. but I dont even know if thats wolfy for him when he seems good enough as scum at coming up with reasonable reads and explanations lol

skitter is fine ish. vibes like villa games but I dont have any recollection of her wolf game. she is like "too not trying to be towny to be not town" (different from too wolfy to be wolf)

ari I feel like is ever slightly >rand wolf. some of her conclusions have felt forced to me. namely, in her back-and-forth with shea, I agreed with her more, but personally I Too-didnt-agree with "this is wolf who can't come up with justification" when I could really easily see shea as being a stubborn town, basically completely NAI to me. and then I felt like she kinda weirdly prematurely went, "welp if shea and I live and we dont get this info then we're just going to 100% deathtunnel each other: thus stuff should go like this." likewise in her conversation with me, at times I felt like she was trying to force herself into a certain conclusion about me. same with the fire conversation that I am just now reading; my first instinct is it feels like she tried to force herself into scumreading fire with weird premises that didnt make sense to me


isis I think is slightly wolfy. her vibe to me just feels more informed than naturally solving, idk how to describe better (altho I could see that being due to just how she presents reads playstylewise). I think she has tried to poke suspicion at people in a way that fell flat for me, such as trying to shade activity patterns, or 706, there have just been some attempts to sus people that felt awk to me

note that I dont think ari/isis is w/w. ari is sorta pushing herself away from the coalition and isis does not seem like in a solid enough position to free her teammate to do that

TSQ is ok. to be honest, this could be due to really flawed sample size, but if I think about it hard maybe his refusal to explain/argue his scumread is scummy for him. in my towngame with him he tunneled Norwegian boy ee and he kept offering up additional nuances/reasonings, whereas the times ive seen him wolf theres more just blindly repeating "this person is scum". I could see this being from fatigue from all the scum rands. I guess me thinking this maybe contradicts my ari scumread maybe not lol idrk

the bulge is nothing
gun to my head his post sequence was slightly towny lol

hellbooks I dont know either. I think shea said like "hellbooks somehow feels less pure than garlic" which feels like a good take lol but she still feels ok

How is this not a wall

this is more fake than the moon landing how dare you disprove my worldview with one simple trick.

[Thestatusquo]

I still think its weird and not accurate to describe sheeps posting style as "walls" when I think its still true than 98.8982423% of his posts are one liners.

[Thestatusquo]

Also like kind of revealing that I was asked to explain a town read and I just came up with a bunch of stuff that I usually town read that he actually isn't really doing this game.

Maybe I secretly scum read sheep and haven't even realized it.

[Thestatusquo]

HURT: Sheep
HEAL: Skitter

[Thestatusquo]

Would bulge really just lurk out as scum?

[Thestatusquo]

do you have thoughts about the things I said in the rest of the last two pages re:sheep

(and the reason is we decided scum really wants to have exactly one in the coalition so bulge really only makes sense as scum with someone who is like super omega locked for the coalition. Because he is assuring himself not to be in it. I think if that's not the case then he's definitely just lurking in an extremely NAI way and I would like to just wait for replacement)

[Thestatusquo]

i think bulge could also just not be able to/doesn't have the motivation to get engaged in the game. i don't think it has to be an active choice

Right I think out can't possibly be an active choice if he's scum and i think if he were scum he'd be more likely to actively try to not lurk.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not ok with a coalition that doesn't include fire

[Thestatusquo]

My niggling doubt about fire is just that he seems like he's being just a bit too conciliatory to me

[Thestatusquo]

When did you start town reading me

[Thestatusquo]

Why are you putting him in your coalition if he's open wolfing

[Thestatusquo]

You don't seem to be challenging me much idk.

[Thestatusquo]

@datisi is it possible to put the names in the things in alphabetical order so its easy from a glance to tell which coalitions are the same?

[Thestatusquo]

I think that matters way more than knowing the order they were put in there.

[Thestatusquo]

every vote though I do find the lone hellbooks vote funnier and funnier.

[Thestatusquo]

I wouldn't trust my ability to read anyone tbh

[Thestatusquo]

Why didn't Datisi simply shoot fire.

[Thestatusquo]

I want you to read them. We still have 9 days or whatever

[Thestatusquo]

I don't think we'll have trouble limming someone in a couple days

[Thestatusquo]

idk if i still agree with sheep downward trajectory his posting this morning swayed me a little bit

In what way

[Thestatusquo]

Anyone putting hellbooks in is throwing

[Thestatusquo]

I no longer want sheep

[Thestatusquo]

bulge.

[Thestatusquo]

I still kinda think ari is scum.

[Thestatusquo]

good page top.

[Thestatusquo]

The Bulge*
skitter30
tris
fireisredsir
Thestatusquo

[Thestatusquo]

I think me being scum with bulge would be absolutely bonkers bananas given my play this game.

[Thestatusquo]

that coalition is cool because its gunna fail and then we can lim ari.

[Thestatusquo]

Tris/me/shea

I want ari

I will begrudgingly compromise on the bulge for reasons stated

I would then go:
Sheep
Isis
Fire
Hellbooks

I agree with the top 3.

I don't want ari.

I want fire.

Can you walk me through why you don't?

[Thestatusquo]

Bulge would die if people turned their brains off.

They could always not do that though. That would be cool.

[Thestatusquo]

Its interesting that there has been a wave of people being ok with bulge now when everyone was so opposed earlier. It kinda feels like those people might be TMIing bulge town and know he's going to be the mislim bait in the coalition.

[Thestatusquo]

Its interesting that there has been a wave of people being ok with bulge now when everyone was so opposed earlier. It kinda feels like those people might be TMIing bulge town and know he's going to be the mislim bait in the coalition.

since when did you even believe in TMI

I don't believe in like perspective slips and tmi in the sense that someone says something that slips someone being town or scum.

I do believe in scum doing things that set them up to win the game? I'm not sure how you could possibly conflate those two things. Or possibly think I meant the latter when I've talked about not believing in tmi tells before.

[Thestatusquo]

Ari continues to interact with me in a way I can only describe as "negging"

[Thestatusquo]

I agree you've been polite about it.

[Thestatusquo]

I do not think I will vote for a coalition other than the one I outlined.

[Thestatusquo]

Thestatusquo [5]: The Bulge, tris, Thestatusquo, fireisredsir, skitter30

[Thestatusquo]

another banger of a page top.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm still thinking about Ari's comment about how she wants to have 5 days minimum to lim and wants to coalition as soon as possible and I just don't understand how that is a townie mindset. Clearly when the ramifications of getting one decision correct is you win the whole game you should take your time and focus on that decision and not maximize your time towards the fail case.

[Thestatusquo]

Previous experience does not make you right.

[Thestatusquo]

Given that as fire said the town has won 2 out of the 7 games where they've coalitioned wrong and won 7 games via coalition that should tell you your focus is incorrect.

[Thestatusquo]

Nope.

[Thestatusquo]

this setup has been played 14 times before shea

it has never had a coalition phase run into 50 pages let alone the 94 pages we are on.

most

games

take fewer than 60 pages total to finish

the longer this phase plays out the more this town is going to become disinterested and demotivated and unlikely to read back to figure out what actually happened.

1) Fact

2) Fact, but not serving any purpose in advancing any argument.

3) Fact, but not serving any purpose in advancing any argument.

4) Unwarranted conjecture and personal opinion masquerading as logic.

[Thestatusquo]

You voted it extremely briefly because you're trying to make me look unreasonable and then you're going to change

PEDIT lmao

[Thestatusquo]

Imagine a woman at KFC awkwardly putting small pieces of fried chicken in her mouth then the fall out cause her mouth is numb from the numbing agents that reduced the pain on her electrolysis. Then she turns her head sideways cause the sides of her mouth are the least numb and sips some Dr Pepper. Then stop visualizing me and vote for a tris Ari Isis skitter Shea coalition and win a mafia game

This is the only post you need to read brassherald

You're assuming I'm literate enough to read a post.

HURT: all

Since I'm not sure where the Bulge's votes for coalition were.

Thestatusquo [5]: The Bulge, tris, Thestatusquo, fireisredsir, skitter30

just sheep this, everyone else is lying to you.

[Thestatusquo]

this setup has been played 14 times before shea

it has never had a coalition phase run into 50 pages let alone the 94 pages we are on.

most

games

take fewer than 60 pages total to finish

the longer this phase plays out the more this town is going to become disinterested and demotivated and unlikely to read back to figure out what actually happened.

1) Fact

2) Fact, but not serving any purpose in advancing any argument.

3) Fact, but not serving any purpose in advancing any argument.

4) Unwarranted conjecture and personal opinion masquerading as logic.

so do you think its possible that I could think it would be better to coalition earlier so we have more time in case we are wrong?

Anything is possible. I think its more likely you just dont have a townie mindset.

[Thestatusquo]

hi

[Thestatusquo]

I dont have an answer to your first question.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm actually incredibly worried about you. I don't know whenever I've watched you play on alts there's been an undercurrent to your posting which felt like pure information dumps of your thoughts. Even if they were couched in weird gimmick alt stuff.

Idk if it's the structure of the gimmick that forces you to post like this because it's like the only way you can actually convey real information but I'm not getting that same feel from you here. I'm getting like this weird sense that you're just observing and then asking questions that push the thread narrative where you want it to go.

So like it's not like I'm scum reading you exactly but I'm not town reading you and given my experience moderating your gimmick alt games I kinda expected to be able to town read you.

I find it very hard to believe that bulge has any more scum equity than anyone else and hes a very convenient name to point to for someone who wants a non-controversial take.

My pov on this is massively different when I have so much of the game's consensus scum equity [and I need to widen this damn limpool]

Tbh another thing that is bothering me is I feel like your reaction here is massively overblown to the amount of pressure you've actually received and the number of people who actually have listed you as an actual scum read. I said I wasn't town reading you. I don't think there's a bunch of people out there listing you as their number one scum read and so for you to go full oh everyone thinks I'm scum not a single person thinks I'm town feels premature to me.

And like that's not scummy in and of itself because like I've certainly done similar things as town when I'm reading the room as being against me and felt I needed to go into drastic be townie mode it's what you're doing with it that I feel is kinda weird. Like, the AtE stuff which seemed to be designed to actively make people feel bad for suspecting you followed by lets push the lurker slot feel like you're using this overreaction to shape narratives too which I don't like.

At a baseline level all I want is actual analysis from you and you keep refusing to give it while making jokes about how you're scum and pushing thread discourse places I don't like.

To throw up your hands and be like welp guess I have to default my worldview to the lurker slot being scum and decide a read on someone else because they're unlikely to be scum with the lurker slot is just not gameplay that helps us at all. And you KNOW that.

@brass

[Thestatusquo]

God I want sheep to be town

[Thestatusquo]

Fire after u snow this

w

will you play jungle nunu and gank for us

The coal should have at least one of me/ari

No it should not.

[Thestatusquo]

Fire is yuumi or he's out.

[Thestatusquo]

Ari voting my coalition for show and then unvoting it makes me extremely happy.

Pedit play with feet.

[Thestatusquo]

Lil kitties > bears

[Thestatusquo]

Tris/me/shea

I want ari

I will begrudgingly compromise on the bulge for reasons stated

I would then go:
Sheep
Isis
Fire
Hellbooks

I agree with the top 3.

I don't want ari.

I want fire.

Can you walk me through why you don't?

I still think that the you/ari/fire thing wasnt all town; something feels icky to me there
But I think ari is town (i don't think her play here matches what i'd expect scum-her to do, like at all) and i want her in the coalition
I've come around to you being town
Fire i still don't really like how he positioned himself in the you/ari thing, and i didnt really like his response to ari trying to see if he was willing to act on his stated worldview

If we swap fire for ari and then don't win would you be willing to consider limming ari?

HURT: all

[Thestatusquo]

I think youre wrong that she's not trying to get into the coalition. I think she has just been very good about not being overt about it.

Not campaigning for yourself != not trying.

[Thestatusquo]

Idk probably me.

[Thestatusquo]

Like idk why skitters read isn't transferrable a lot of places with the same logic.

I think sheep has done a lot less to try to get in the coalition than ari for instance.

[Thestatusquo]

Fuck you sheep.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean the normal way, which is by attempting to pocket people.

[Thestatusquo]

tbh I don't think there's a lot of difference in how I would play this whole "trying to be in the coalition" thing as scum or town unless I could be 100% certain that my partner was going to be in or out of said coalition.

And that feels like a really hard nut to crack in order to find a read.

[Thestatusquo]

I will agree to the following coalition:

Me Tris Skitter Ari and Fire.

And then we can argue about which of ari or fire is scum later.

I think there is certainly scum in {hellbooks isis sheep}

[Thestatusquo]

Everyone sure is forgetting about hellbooks who has lurked this game in a much more deliberate way than the bulge ever did.

[Thestatusquo]

at least 5% of the posts i make i am thinking to myself "wow i hope hellbooks reads this when she catches up and appreciates it"

thats how I feel about you.

[Thestatusquo]

*read that in VPB voice*

[Thestatusquo]

God I wish I was good enough to be partners with Ari this game.

[Thestatusquo]

if the team were me and ari here I would print this entire game out and use it to wallpaper my bedroom.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean the normal way, which is by attempting to pocket people.

Who tho

I thought aris energy after she realized she couldn't omgus me off the scum read was extremely pockety.

[Thestatusquo]

She's in my coalition that I'm proposing now isnt she?

[Thestatusquo]

I'm .... really skeptical of this
I don't know why this coalition is a thinf

I don't know why brass is voting it

I have a similar feeling about everything so far. Someone votes for it and it sours my whole outlook on the grouping.

[Thestatusquo]

Tbh skitter is the only one whose approach to the coalitions here feels townie to me. Everyone else seems to not give a fuck.

[Thestatusquo]

Tbh skitter is the only one whose approach to the coalitions here feels townie to me. Everyone else seems to not give a fuck.

I'm trying to let you cook sir

no you've had don't give a fuck energy about who is in the coalition the whole game.

I see no reason to want to "just end it"

We have a shot to win the game here and we should take it seriously instead of just ehhh whatever.

[Thestatusquo]

HURT: all
HEAL: me ari tris shea

This is where i'm at and i don't knkw who the fifth should be

Would you kill me if I said sheep maybe?

I know I've been all over the place on the slot.

[Thestatusquo]

I still want fire. But the way he's approaching the coalitions here is giving me the hibbity jibbities.

[Thestatusquo]

Skitter and shea and trying to talk through our differences right now while the rest of you sit there chanting *BLOOD BLOOD BLOOD BLOOD*

[Thestatusquo]

Shea if i vote for you/me/tris/ari/fire
And it fails
Would u be willing to vote fire tom?

I am open to a world where fire is scum.

Right now I am tanking deeply on if I think its more likely sheep is scum.

[Thestatusquo]

We did it btw bulges secret powers have activated.

[Thestatusquo]

Fuck it.

HURT: The entire world
HEAL: Tris Shea Skitter Sheep Ari

[Thestatusquo]

you're the one who convinced me tris is town!

[Thestatusquo]

Wait its a coup for the tris-fire scum team fuck me.

[Thestatusquo]

I really hope bukz isn't town.

[Thestatusquo]

idk I feel like the last 10 pages is the first time I've actually had fun this game.

[Thestatusquo]

I want to wait until friday fwiw.

I feel like we got more accomplished in the last hour than we have in the week prior and I still see no need to rush this

[Thestatusquo]

if we played 102 pages just to find out it's hellbooks/bulge that would be kind of funny but an acceptable outcome ig

see this post doesnt feel like a scum post in a way I can't fully explain.

[Thestatusquo]

Datisi sleeps at random and fitfully. Time has no meaning for one such as him.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: hellbooks

inspired by her lazering skitter all game.

[Thestatusquo]

[Thestatusquo]

[Thestatusquo]

Datisi.

[Thestatusquo]

Idi U Tri Pičke Materine

[Thestatusquo]

Idi U Tri Pičke Materine

What's this mean

It's Croatian and it means "I respectfully request that you reveal the outcome of this mafiascum game"

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: sheep

There's no way to read his reaction to me and skitter trying to work through the coalition at the end as townie for skitter and scummy for me besides optimism.

[Thestatusquo]

Opportunistim

[Thestatusquo]

Especially because my contribution at the end was explicitly to put him in.

Why is scum Shea fighting to put in sheep at the end from sheep pov?

[Thestatusquo]

Ari scum read is fun and comfortable but I don't really think it's right anymore.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea voted hellbooks which just isn't a good vote. It may have been a joke vote but I don't know that

It was clearly a joke vote?

[Thestatusquo]

Especially because my contribution at the end was explicitly to put him in.

Why is scum Shea fighting to put in sheep at the end from sheep pov?

performing just because an intuitive argument is "scum shea already had a scum in the coal why would he care about still tinkering with it"

I wasnt saying this is likely it's just I can easily see this happening whereas I dont as much for skitter

But then you listed me as second most likely scum in the coalition.

[Thestatusquo]

shea when did you decide you aren't sure if you believe in your ari scumread anymore?

Like a week ago

[Thestatusquo]

Actually sheep scum implies that the other scum is in the coalition because literally no one but me was calling for sheep to be included. I'm not really sure without tanking deeply what the implications of this are.

But I think it makes me want to UNVOTE:

[Thestatusquo]

Ugh I really feel like this is crackable actually but I'm at a magic tournament and phone posting.

[Thestatusquo]

Actually sheep scum implies that the other scum is in the coalition because literally no one but me was calling for sheep to be included. I'm not really sure without tanking deeply what the implications of this are.

But I think it makes me want to UNVOTE:

Not said in this post but meant to be implied is probably the more likely option is that sheep is just town.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok don't crucify me here.

VOTE: Tris

[Thestatusquo]

I think most of the behavior of almost every potential team makes most sense in a world where tris or skitter is scum and i much more affirmatively town read skitter.

[Thestatusquo]

The thing that gets me about Tris is how she kept insisting on hellbooks in the coalition even though no one else wanted that and didn't seem at all interested in actually finding a compromise position or working with anyone else to find a coalition that could be worked with.

That doesn't make a lot of sense as a pretty highly town read slot. I feel like you're incentivized to work with people like how skitter and I tried to at the end of this phrase but I didn't really see Tris to that. It does make a lot of sense from the perspective of scum who knows they're almost certain to be in the coalition though.

[Thestatusquo]

my initial thought was feeling like sheep was set up to be the easy first lim in this coal but i guess if he's partnered with hellbooks or brass then that isn't really applicable and the people pushing him are just correct

and those are fairly believable pairings

This feels very level one actually. If hellbooks or brass are sheeps partner and sheep is scum what was scums plan? Just hope I randomly suggested sheep as a replacement for you? How that bulge/brass got in despite that being a probably sub 50% chance at best?

[Thestatusquo]

I didn't get the sense that sheep/brass felt defeated which is feels like scum probably would in that position.

Hard to get a read on hellbooks because she's not giving me a ton to work with but didn't feel like she felt particularly defeated about game state ever either.

[Thestatusquo]

Ugh I really feel like this is crackable actually but I'm at a magic tournament and phone posting.

Is this magic the gathering or competitive Cross Angeling?

Yes I was playing a local legacy tournament in magic the gathering where I was summarily executed.

[Thestatusquo]

My brain is telling me this makes a lot of sense so I look forward to checking back in and seeing people saying I'm crazy.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok but I'm sure in those situations scum were doing something it just didn't work.

What were sheep and Brass or sheep and hellbooks doing? Like pretty much nothing to change the outcome. Brass is a little bit less of a slam dunk here because he seemed to kind of be trying to glom on to me putting him in the coalition. But if someone thinks hellbook and sheep is the team they're really going to have to sell me on why they were doing essentially nothing in a losing position.

I think the same logic kind of applies to bulge/sheep earlier but less strongly because we weren't really coalescing and there's more time and at times it did look like sheep might get in.

[Thestatusquo]

Sheep really only makes sense partnered with Tris skitter (and for completeness, me)

He's actively trying to push to have a coalition all of today as fast as possible that is very unlikely to have him on it and I just don't see that being his play unless he's already got someone on the coalition.

I think the more likely world is that he's just town though.

[Thestatusquo]

I guess he doesn't make zero sense partnered with you but I also think that's unlikely

[Thestatusquo]

why can't sheep be paired with brassherald/bulge?

I think I just made like ten posts explaining why I think it's not the most likely...

[Thestatusquo]

This feels very level one actually. If hellbooks or brass are sheeps partner and sheep is scum what was scums plan? Just hope I randomly suggested sheep as a replacement for you? How that bulge/brass got in despite that being a probably sub 50% chance at best?

I mean this logic assumes scum have a plan which like i dunno why that team would have one?

I mean plan is a strong word but usually players in games do things to try to win them. Like is it possible that there's a scum team that is taking no actions whatsoever to win? Like yeah I guess but I don't really feel like I need to play around that.

[Thestatusquo]

like if the team is sheep + bulge then

sheep's plan is to get into the coalition by "townclaiming"

and bulge's plan was to take a vow of silence and try not to mess it up for him?

I mean yeah this is my point though. Do you really see a world where that's what scum is trying to do to not lose on the spot? I don't. Especially with how hard sheep was going on the no we need a coalition right now.

[Thestatusquo]

isis can you be serious please I'm like legitimately annoyed at you if you're town this game.

[Thestatusquo]

I think tris is townier than sheep in a vacuum, by a lot, and shea has these compelling big brain paradigms for flipping that on its head, but I wanna just lim the scummiest slots

this feels like scumagendaposting to me idk

People sure keep telling me tris is townie but no one has actually told me why besides fire and skitter. Fires points were basically that he liked some posts a little and I kinda agreed with that, but scum players can and do make some townie posts. Skitters point was that tris as scum is not comfortable vibing in real time in the thread.

I kind of thought that it was not as true that tris was vibing really well in real time at the time that point was made but people disagreed so I let it be, but I don't know how anyone can say tris is vibing in real time right now.

I also think it is pretty safe to say that Tris did virtually nothing to find a correct coalition. Not in the sense that she wasn't putting out some of her own coalitions occasionally, but in the sense that she never once tried to work with others to build an actual town core. She never once tries to make the game state change to actually match the coalition she claimed she wanted.

All of her behavior is consistent with a scum player who gets universally town read and wants to maintain that game state. None of it is consistent with a town player who is trying to win the game via their town read status and coalition.

Like you can minimize what I'm saying as "big brain paradigms" if you want but my argument is that tris has played this game in an actively scummy manner and if you want to dispense of that notion you're going to have to come up with a coherent argument for what exactly is so townie about tris' play. I'd say what is scummy about sheeps play but I don't really need you to do that because I kinda agree sheep has been kinda scummy but if you're making the affirmative case that tris is townie show your work or you don't get to make arguments like this.

[Thestatusquo]

I quoted the wrong person. All my huff was directed at fireisred by mistake.

[Thestatusquo]

I think I should get town cred for finding the mental fortitude to post actual solving thoughts in this game after the mets lost to the yankees yesterday.

[Thestatusquo]

I think I should get town cred for finding the mental fortitude to post actual solving thoughts in this game after the mets lost to the yankees yesterday.

You're still bothering to follow the Mets? I not only gave up on them this year, I decided that instead of getting my daughter a Mets onesie to counteract the Yankees onesie my brother in law got, I bought her more Star Wars stuff because none of the Star Wars universe is as dark as the season the Mets are having

My name is literally Shea

[Thestatusquo]

One time a security guard at Wrigley didn't throw me out when he caught me drinking whiskey from a water bottle because my name was Shea and he reasoned that I must really want to be at this mets game in Chicago.

[Thestatusquo]

One time a security guard at Wrigley didn't throw me out when he caught me drinking whiskey from a water bottle because my name was Shea and he reasoned that I must really want to be at this mets game in Chicago.

Depending on the year you may have needed the whiskey too.

Ike Davis hit a home run. I think we lost like 10-1

[Thestatusquo]

I have too much to do at work to like open sheep's iso and case him my twitter era of mafia is terrible

So are we just ignoring me or...?

[Thestatusquo]

This was also tris playing a towncore building game. I feel like she has done more than that here

Are you trolling? That iso is starkly different on my first glance.

[Thestatusquo]

It also does not answer my question. Please tell my why you are affirmatively town reading Tris.

[Thestatusquo]

You don't know how to do what?

[Thestatusquo]

It kind of just feels like Isis is just picking things at random and saying "this is town" or "she has done more than in this iso" when they're either just not true or like... Basically nothing? It's kind of frustrating because I can't disprove that a post is "pure" but at the same time it's a statement that does not mean anything.

And are you really saying that perhaps your strongest town read this game is based on basically "idk there's a handful of posts that feel 'pure'"

Like... Really?

[Thestatusquo]

This was also tris playing a towncore building game. I feel like she has done more than that here

Are you trolling? That iso is starkly different on my first glance.

i think she looks really different there yea

do you think its more town there? if so, in what way

In that iso you are very clearly advocating for your worldview and interacting with people around what they think of the town core.

Almost all your posts in it are focused on it.

In fact, it's pretty much exactly what I would expect you to look like as town in the position you were in and is a case study in the kinds of things you weren't doing in this game.

[Thestatusquo]

It's like... Kind of crazy because there's so many things you can use to read someone in this game which don't exist in a normal game.

People's positioning on the coalition. People's advocacy for themselves and others. The way people approached what 2 people knew for sure was a losing coalition.

But Isis is choosing to use none of them and is instead saying sheep seems to be the scummiest if we ignore all of that and Tris feels townie if we ignore all of that but like... Why are we ignoring that? Why are we not looking at the single most readable things players are forced to do in this game?

[Thestatusquo]

Idk

[Thestatusquo]

You're townier here and fire knows that but he's scum so he's vague tweeting instead

Explain how.

[Thestatusquo]

You're townier here and fire knows that but he's scum so he's vague tweeting instead

And me? Am I scum too?

[Thestatusquo]

Are you really telling me that you read that iso and you thought that Tris did less in it to try to build a town core and advocate for her world view?

I simply do not believe you believe that.

[Thestatusquo]

Thank you Tris!

[Thestatusquo]

So you agree isis is wrong?

[Thestatusquo]

Tris why didn't you like the coalition? Who did you not like in it and why? Who do you think is likely why it failed? Who do you think is scum now outside of the coalition? Do you think it's more likely that there's 2 in the coalition or 1?

[Thestatusquo]

i dont think i said i didnt like this coalition. but obv it was wrong. sheep is the easy answer. i hope its scum outside the coalition. i dont think hellbooks is it. im kinda feeling isis town because she's pocketting me. so i guess that leaves fire and brass if its outside the coal

So answer my series of posts about sheep then. Explain what scum is doing right before the coalition in a world where sheep is scum with someone outside of the coalition? Is he really just gigapushing people to hammer a coalition he's not in that he knows will end in his team losing?

[Thestatusquo]

I would like some of that, hellbooks.

[Thestatusquo]

I feel like I can't do that post justice reading it. I read it and I feel like I haven't really digested it yet.

[Thestatusquo]

and maybe watch a mets game

Wouldn't recommend it

[Thestatusquo]

I think that's how I was interpreting it as well.

[Thestatusquo]

I could be getting snowed by skitter but I really felt that she was trying to find the right coalition with me in good faith at the end of the phase.

Like I know this is a me thing that can't necessarily be understood by others but that feeling of being interacted with in good faith feels really hard to fake to me.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok, but it's how I feel and I think I'm willing to ignore other possibilities at least until Tris gets flipped.

[Thestatusquo]

Skitter did you read my posts from a few days ago

[Thestatusquo]

I think the main reason I scum read isis is it feels like systemically all of her takes are just wildly unthought out. And she performatively goes back on them when that's pointed out but then doesn't seem to try to understand the game in that new lens. Specifically me and sheep doesn't really make any sense because it requires me to swap in my scum buddy who is somewhat scum read into the coalition where he's more likely to be limmed for basically no benefit.

[Thestatusquo]

Starting about here.

Ok don't crucify me here.

VOTE: Tris

And going through about here.

I think tris is townier than sheep in a vacuum, by a lot, and shea has these compelling big brain paradigms for flipping that on its head, but I wanna just lim the scummiest slots

this feels like scumagendaposting to me idk

People sure keep telling me tris is townie but no one has actually told me why besides fire and skitter. Fires points were basically that he liked some posts a little and I kinda agreed with that, but scum players can and do make some townie posts. Skitters point was that tris as scum is not comfortable vibing in real time in the thread.

I kind of thought that it was not as true that tris was vibing really well in real time at the time that point was made but people disagreed so I let it be, but I don't know how anyone can say tris is vibing in real time right now.

I also think it is pretty safe to say that Tris did virtually nothing to find a correct coalition. Not in the sense that she wasn't putting out some of her own coalitions occasionally, but in the sense that she never once tried to work with others to build an actual town core. She never once tries to make the game state change to actually match the coalition she claimed she wanted.

All of her behavior is consistent with a scum player who gets universally town read and wants to maintain that game state. None of it is consistent with a town player who is trying to win the game via their town read status and coalition.

Like you can minimize what I'm saying as "big brain paradigms" if you want but my argument is that tris has played this game in an actively scummy manner and if you want to dispense of that notion you're going to have to come up with a coherent argument for what exactly is so townie about tris' play. I'd say what is scummy about sheeps play but I don't really need you to do that because I kinda agree sheep has been kinda scummy but if you're making the affirmative case that tris is townie show your work or you don't get to make arguments like this.

[Thestatusquo]

@shea my issue is that i'm not sure town-tris doesnt just play this way tho

Like is it unideal, yes
But i can see her as town playing like this ...

Read the ISO Isis posted. It's literally night and day

[Thestatusquo]

I'm gonna be honest here this reaction makes me really worry about skitter-tris as a team.