OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[the worst]

VOTE COUNT 1.7

Sando (1)

~ BuJaber,

skitter30 (0)

~

AP (0)

~

brassherald (0)

~

BuJaber (2)

~ vulcan logician, Enigma,

Ausuka (0)

~

Skygazer (0)

~

vulcan logician (1)

~ Sando,

ceejayvinoya (0)

~

ruru (1)

~ OkaPoka,

ofrhz (0)

~

Invisibility (1)

~ ceejayvinoya,

OkaPoka (4)

~ brassherald, skitter30, AP, Invisibility,

Enigma (4)

~ Ausuka, Skygazer, ruru, ofrhz,

NOT VOTING:

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

day one will end in (expired on 2018-07-25 18:30:00)

mod notes:

- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- HAPPY BIRTHDAY SANDO'S GF!!!
- quack

[Enigma]

I'm too obvtown to pl

Then why is a good percentage of players debating about pl you??

---

Tbh, this is how I see your earlier actions on pgo claim:

1. Town and true claim
IMO not town-optimal play but w/e not beating a dead horse. There is a high chance scum tried to go for that role, and probably failed. So scum likely know you are telling the truth, and wouldn't be so surprised - you would know this and afford extra scrutiny to those who are less surprised when you are scum hunting (which is not what is happening rn).

2. Town and false claim
There is a high chance scum tried to go for that role, got that role, and know you are lying. So they'll just kill you and any town docs, jk, watcher, busdriver etc wouldn't touch you. Someone knows your are lying risking counterclaim, so terrible choice and highly illogical. Put into improbable basket.

3. Scum and true claim (on vig/pgo pair)
Claim obv town, actually choose 1-shot vig over PGO knowing town PRs unlikely to target you following claim. Shoot someone on night near end-game to win. Maybe scum-buddy took veng, so you might choose to kill night 3 to hold your cover as PGO by riding the obv town wagon.

4. Scum and false claim (on vig/pgo pair)
Why? If pair in town you would get CC and die. Unless the vig/pgo pair is also in scum ... but risky. Illogical.

---
TLDR: PL ruru doesn't seem like a bad idea.

Will respond to other stuff tomorrow when have more time later

[Enigma]

quack

You sniped me quack

---

dont even try to steal my pagetops >:C
~ tw

[ofrhz]

i think oka is town

Why?

he objects to things that he disagrees with, such as his analysis of Enigma's rvs vote and 133, and I'm not getting the vibe that he is being contrary for the sake of it. He hasn't really made any logical leaps in his contrary opinions, so I think he believes them

[ofrhz]

^ I'm not sure if that made any sense
Basically, I think posts like this make sense and demonstrate attempts at balancing probabilities:

So you find it more likely that ruru is being honest about her intentions with the PGO play than potentially fakeclaiming and being an actual vigilante which is mafia aligned?

IMO strongest first pick for mafia would be the vigilante, gives you an extra NK and it removes PGO from play. That or roleblocker which would remove Doctor from play.

What I am saying is that ruru may have not played it optimally for town but maybe she did play it optimally for scum. So now the question is how good is ruru at mafia.

In contrast to a post like this:

Not sure why one would pick a PGO if you were town anyways, considering likely more town PRs than scum PRs. Wouldn't town just choose 1 shot vig?
Plus wtf would ruru, as first seed, choose from that pair?

Ruru could always be vengeful scum and trying to get us to pl her?

bolded part is just reachy

[OkaPoka]

sorry if im missing any questions directed at me, probs should hit me with an @okapoka again because im going to answer skitter's question about why enigma wagon sucks

imo the wagon only really appeared when skygazer, ruru, and orhz all voted engima within essentially consecutive posts.

genuinely have no clue how to interpret oka help

VOTE: Enigma

blatantly sheeping two early town reads (agree with the tone looking weird in 109 and with CJ's point as well)

mediocre explanation imo, tone is about as useful as saying gut, i'd go as far as to stating tone as a reason to vote is equivalent to an rvs level vote which we have already transitioned out of.
i disagree with cj's point, engima was being pretty reasonable about how he reached a bujaber vote and i felt that cj was a bit reachy with that jump in logic. there was no indication of engima sincerely scumreading bujaber.
if this is the so called point

VOTE: brass

Hahaha we all played ourselves. Nobody picked 7.
Okay if Oka is town he makes a good point about coordination.
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

That said not sure why he'd assume they picked 1.

1 is a ballsy pick. It's like picking 7 and we were all too cowardly to pick 7. I think ruru is town because he wasn't afraid.

I don't know how useful this is, maybe later on if massclaim becomes a thing, but each of us knows for sure that:
- if we got our choice it means nobody above us in the order picked the same X/Y pair.
-if we didn't get our choice it means somebody above us has one of the X/Y pair we picked.

But I picked the same number as you? By your logic (if you were town) that scum would all pick different numbers, why wouldn't you be suspicious of me since there is a higher (random) likelihood I could be scum?

But I know I'm town, so probability says...
VOTE: BuJaber

This post is pinging me.

It's like you were just looking for an excuse to jump onto the BuJaber wagon.

I don't really understand how you got to the conclusion that he's scum just from your post.

ruru just came out of nowhere with a naked vote, she indicated that she felt maybe engima vs bujaber was scum vs scum but i mean nothing concrete came out of it
orfhz also naked voted also felt out of place

im not necessarily townreading enigma solidly, but i felt like the wagon forming was either fueled by scum or skygazer+ruru+orfhz is a clique that just do things for the lulz which does unfortunately happen on this site.

so i guess
@skygazer @ruru @orfhz are you guys a clique?

[Skygazer]

Enigma's posts do not want to make we want to unvote him, gg scum found

not a clique, i don't know ruru of orfhz, i'm new and definitely not an alt i promise

[Skygazer]

(seriously not an alt tho)

[Skygazer]

wow how am I townreading literally everyone on this enigma wagon plus CJ

could it be because,,, enigma is scum?

[OkaPoka]

can you put into words why you think enigma is scum? im not seeing it

[BuJaber]

I got a townvibe from oka tbh. So I found ausuka's gut read interesting.

Could be that oka is very good at threading the NAI line

I don't understand what you mean by treading the NAI line

Are you saying that what oka has been saying is mostly NAI?

But then you expressed you have a townvibe on him, which is odd.

Yes most of his posts were about roles, wifom of the draft, what scum in ruru's position might do.

Those are NAI. However you can SR or TR these posts based on tone and what you perceive to be his intention. Which I feel is coming from town.
So by "threading the NAI line" I mean that if he is scum he is just very good at posting a minimum amount of actual relevant reads and of saying NAI things while sounding towny.


I think Enigma could be scum with ruru. I don't really see any other scum motivation for the posts he's making. I think ruru's latest posts are townish but I still think it's too risky to keep em alive for very long.

I don't understand how lynching PGO at mylo - 1 will turn it into lylo. Do you think pgo and vengeful power slots are both taken by scum? And vengeful ruru claimed pgo knowing her partner is pgo/vig?
Would be a powerful high risk high reward gambit but seems far-fetched to me.

I triple checked my math this time. Assuming mislynch and NK every day/night, Day 4 is mylo so day 3 is mylo - 1.
Day 1 - 3 v 11
Day 2 - 3 v 9
Day 3 - 3 v 7
Day 4 - 3 v 5
Day 5 - 3 v 3 game over.

[BuJaber]

I read oka's ISO and beyond the townie tone, I also don't think scum would interpret enigma's vote on me with such accuracy. It's not something you come up with if you read enigma's post quickly and not pay close attention. And I think scum.pay closer attention to someone they are building a case on than someone they are defending.
So if you scumread oka do you have specific reasons for it?

[Skygazer]

look at how enigma continues to vote BuJaber 10 pages in

enigma scum reads me, other people on his wagon, and ruru, but continues to hold on to a weak opportunistic vote from page two for some reason. probably waiting for another wagon to form or being cautious with their vote while under scrutiny.

[Skygazer]

1. She townreads you immediately after your introduction post
2. Doesn't show curiosity when voting me, despite being curious when posting earlier votes
3. Ignores and is not surprised by your whole distracting PGO debacle

1) Looking at ruru's post's with the context of her position in the lottery, yes
2) I've made three votes including you, one of them in rvs with meaningless filler. This doesn't make sense
3) I said I townread her for it, not ignoring. Why would I get bogged down over-analyzing a townread when I could be

s

c

u

m

h

u

n

t

i

n

g

?

Why are you still voting for BuJaber and not myself?

[brassherald]

Is Ausuka always this quiet? I literally cannot remember.

[vulcan logician]

Hey guys, I'm here. I'm like 3 pages behind but I'm catching up. So sorry to have not contributed. I'm gonna do a list of ISO reads to make up for it though.

So far, I gotta say that Ceej is the towniest I've ever seen him. I lean town on him, but my inner paranoiac wonders if scum!ceej is just not super towny. (I've never played with Ceej as scum.) I know that I tend to come off as more towny when I roll scum... perhaps because, in those cases, I actually take time to do things with the intent to come off as towny.

I'm no longer feeling my BuJaber vote, so

UNVOTE:

Also ofrhz seems pretty town too.

I'll probably have a scum pick or two after I do my ISOs, so stay tuned.

[ruru]

Ugh

- I feel like lylo calculations are pretty meaningless with up to 2 gun roles + 2 protective roles but if you actually believe it's going to happen like that then we should be no lynching today
- If you actually think I'm getting pled, talking about when specifically you're pling me is anti-town (I'm not getting pled btw because the players in this game who know how to read me already know I'm town)
- ofrhz and I might be a clique but like we don't collude if that's what's being asked. I tried to lynch her d1 both times we played together previously. I have pretty high confidence in her reads and she has the ability to read me off of like 3 posts (100% so far)
- If I wanted to 1 for 1 as scum I would pick redirector and fakeclaim a guilty (because this also denies town's most powerful role), not pick vig/vengeful and fakeclaim pgo
- I'm most likely the least valuable scum player in any group of 3 scums and if we decided picking or fakeclaiming pgo was a good idea it would be on the carry scum so they don't get copped, not on me
- For evidence of the above, I sacrificed myself to get

Myloninja13

to lylo in my most recent scum game. Neither of us have ever won a game as scum.

Also

- The only reason for me to pick pgo in this game is that I'm confident enough in my towniness that scum will be forced to shoot me before lylo
- The only reason for me to claim d1 is that I'm town and I don't want TPRs to get shot
- There's actually no way I pull any of this off as scum and no reason to take that risk anyway
- I'm not super interested in talking about my picking strategy or why I think it's +ev further because my ability is activated and playing my role still involves outguessing scum

[OkaPoka]

look at how enigma continues to vote BuJaber 10 pages in

enigma scum reads me, other people on his wagon, and ruru, but continues to hold on to a weak opportunistic vote from page two for some reason. probably waiting for another wagon to form or being cautious with their vote while under scrutiny.

or he forgot

i mean look at me, im wagon he can hop on

UNVOTE:
ruru does not seem like a viable lynch today

---

@invisbility im going to need for you to expand on your scumread on me, like put it into concrete words without using the words: tone, gut, feels off

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.

VOTE: Oka

is this just a sheep?

Nope. That was the slot that actually got me pulling my hair off. Al he seems to do is nitpick anything that anyone else says. It looks like he wants to stand out as "doing something different" but -at the same time- nothing productive. He's spewing doubt in every single case or line of reasoning anyone else tries to build upon and that's it.

link me some quotes

[skitter30]

Then why is a good percentage of players debating about pl you??

yeah but the people who know her are saying that she's town and there's enough such players in this game that i don't think it's going to happen today

and like it's a pgo claim - it'll very likely resolve itself at some point - there will likely be deaths attributable to that at some point and/or she might die. if she's still alive late-game i think we can re-evaluate this at that time (making a reasonable guess that we're just before xylo)

i really don't like that you keep pushing this and that you ask questions like 'Anti-town vs scum vs noob hrrrmmmm...' and that you're not really listening to the people who have more experience with her than you do who try to answer that question.

also like she's a smart player especially wrt mechanics and setup spec and such and like i think she probably thought through what she's doing, and i really really really don't think she'd ever try to pull any of this off as scum.

like a pl isn't actually happening today so i think we should stop beating this horse and move on, and i'm kinda getting the vibe that you're trying to take advantage of a lolclaim to maybe try to push one through

--

^ I'm not sure if that made any sense
Basically, I think posts like this make sense and demonstrate attempts at balancing probabilities:

if she was vengeful then she would run the risk of getting cc'd by the actual pgo/vig right?

unless she knew real pgo/vig was on her team, adding an extra layer of wifom

i find things like the bolded to be reach-y as well

--

mediocre explanation imo, tone is about as useful as saying gut, i'd go as far as to stating tone as a reason to vote is equivalent to an rvs level vote which we have already transitioned out of.

eh, i suck at tone-reading usually but some people do use that or gut to form reads. i don't think tone-reading == rvs vote, and i don't think a vote should be waived away because tone was used as the reason to vote it. i think cj's point is fine for the stage of the game

im not necessarily townreading enigma solidly, but i felt like the wagon forming was either fueled by scum or skygazer+ruru+orfhz is a clique that just do things for the lulz which does unfortunately happen on this site.

i don't know sky really but i know ofrhz and ruru fairly well and i think that ofrhz vote makes sense following ruru's actually given enigma's stance on the pgo-claim thing and ofrhz townreading her

i like the wagon comp overall actually except for maybe the ausuka vote

VOTE: enigma

--

I think Enigma could be scum with ruru. I don't really see any other scum motivation for the posts he's making. I think ruru's latest posts are townish but I still think it's too risky to keep em alive for very long.

and what, this whole thing is awkward distancing for the towncred once ruru flips scum?

--

Is Ausuka always this quiet? I literally cannot remember.

i don't think so? i haven't played with her that often but i feel like she's usually a bit more active

--

I lean town on him, but my inner paranoiac wonders if scum!ceej is just not super towny. (I've never played with Ceej as scum.)

no, he isn't

[BuJaber]

and what, this whole thing is awkward distancing for the towncred once ruru flips scum?

Yup

Or he's bad at scum.

Like.. the whole arguing for both sides of the PL seems like a cop-out. You're either for or against. You can change your mind about it, but to be both for AND against at the same time?.. scummy.
Like if enigma is scum and ruru is town why even mention that ruru might be vengeful? Get credit for being cautious? That doesn't work. He just looks bad here so I'm thinking maybe he's trying to get credit for the PL but not actually wanting the PL to happen and that's where the ruru association came from.

If you want the opinion of someone who hasn't played with any of the so called 'clique' .. except maybe skitter I think we've played once before not sure... I understand and agree with the skitter townread. I can see why someone would lean town for ruru but the rest I don't see anything obvtown about them so it makes me uncomfortable when there is a group that trusts each other this quickly. Scum absolutely will try to infiltrate the town bloc and any townie should have healthy skepticism wrt those that agree with them / TR them.

[brassherald]

VOTE: Ausuka

Join the game.

[OkaPoka]

@skitter30 you like how people hopped on the wagon with naked votes?

[ruru]

Does The Clique Meta Affect Games?

[brassherald]

I don't think I'm in a clique, so, no.

[OkaPoka]

pretty sure ausuka is in this game more than invis is, brass.