Mini Normal 2334: trees (Day 6)

[Gypyx]

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD

[Gypyx]

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD

[Aureal]

Why is Smiley clear?

[Black]

He's not

[Gypyx]

if this is @me, grovyle is scum by virtue of fake guilty on me, and i don't think the team is grovyle / smiley

[Black]

I just read over the 1v1 and I'm not sure what to think atm

[Gypyx]

I would never dare to roll scum against u black <3

[Aureal]

if this is @me, grovyle is scum by virtue of fake guilty on me, and i don't think the team is grovyle / smiley

But why not?

[Gypyx]

Bussing would be incredibely unwise as if we actually killed grovyle yesterday we would've had both jk / roleblocker to potentially stop the NK

[Gypyx]

and only 1 scum alive

[Black]

I would never dare to roll scum against u black <3

If you did would you try to pocket me?

[Gypyx]

I would never dare to roll scum against u black <3

If you did would you try to pocket me?

Oh yeah absolutely, i would pocket you so hard

[Gypyx]

and only 1 scum alive

plus, even in the theory that bussing would've given smiley enough towncred to not get RB'd, he becomes unable to nightkill without causing at least 1 player to become cleared

smiley is also town by play but that's just cream on the cake or like whatever this thing goes

[Gypyx]

the team is either exactly me + smiley or not smiley at all

likewise i'm reading black as good socially, and on the basis of associatives with ming as i've kinda went over previously

this leaves Aureal / Gibdo for grovyle's partner

[SmileyDude1]

Read through Element's slot iso again while at work. Took note of their Ming interactions during day 1 here. (also not sure if this is just me, but I kind of find day's 2 and 3 to be difficult to analyze for ill-intent due to how most everyone here wound up coming to similar conclusions in regards to Klick and Hu Tao there to the point where it feels like splitting hairs in some ways trying to separate it).


82- Interaction between Ming and Ele here feels somewhat awkward to me in the world they are partnered. It feels kind of clumsy in the way that I wouldn't expect a planned interaction to be, though it also does feel a tad off that the interaction kind of just ends there. Would probs say this interaction points a little more towards unpaired than paired I think


97- Another semi-awkward Ming interaction. Feels a bit unintuitive/weird for Ming to make 93 kind of calling out elements there if paired. Element's response I feel fine enough about, though I do think it vibes awkwardly that suggest it wasn't planned in advance here. I think this would point to a more improv style of pairing if it was Ming/Elements where they're just winging their interactions, though I do think Occam's Razor the weird interactions here so far make it more likely the slot's aren't partnered here so far.


101- Elements asks Ming to vote with her. Not much to say here. Could very easily be a scum maneuver.


109- Here due to it encapsulating another pertinent interaction between Ming and Elements. 107 on Ming's end feels like it was meant to shade Elements for trying to wagon build in 101. This feels like it undercuts ele in a way that feels +rand to be unpaired


336- Reaches out to Rational in regards to their Ming read. Feels like something ele doesn't make the effort to do if Ming/Ele are partnered (especially given I think this was before that wagon caught fire).


364,366,368,369,376- Gets into a back an forth with Rational over not joining the Ming wagon. This does give notable pings here due to ming's red flip though I think Elements 336 from before helps to mitigate that for me. 364 feels more reasonable to me when you consider she tried to reach out on that before and didn't get a response. (just checked the posts in between 336 and 364 to make sure I wasn't missing any context and think this is more solidified given 349 which imo was an unnecessarily hostile response there)


386- States a PoE that notably doesn't include Ming. Keeping it short here, but this does ping to me as something that point towards Ming/Elements being viable right now. 391 feels reasonable enough of a response, I originally was pinged more due to the fact that I thought she was saying they were going to take another look at Ming tomorrow (as in the next day phase "tomorrow", good thing I reread there lol ) and was wondering why they locked themselves out of Ming day 1 there. Realizing they meant tomorrow as in within the same phase, that does read better than it did before for me. Still feels maybe a tad bit off not to mention them within their PoE given this context.


705- Responds to Ming's solve here. mostly noted here due to Ming inserting Elements into their solve in 703. That feels like it should be notable, but I don't really get much from this tbh. Like on it's own what I mentioned at the start of this blurb is probs NAI because scum can pretty easily put one of their buddies as part of their tenative solve at the time, and I don't really notice any context when looking at nearby adjacent posts that point towards Ming putting Ele in their solve either disingenuously or haphazardly that change the calculus here. Anyways i'm wasting time here, move on


1228- Posts an intent to hammer Ming after a deadline they set within the post is hit. Follows through in 1261. This does feel weird in the sense of giving Ming a deadline to claim here. I see the vision, but I thin the way it played out looks less bad then it seems at first glance. Like if the concept was to signal to scumpartner!Ming to make a claim now, I kind of think they'd do more to try to save Ming afterwards. There's not really any disuasion towards letting the tracer claim live or any attempt to pivot towards another wagon like I might expect if Ele partnered with Ming here. And I do think given what transpired afterwards, this feels closer to NAI than I originally thought.
---
Looking through again, I think right now Ming/Elements feels less likely to be aligned here. I see aspects of things that could be suspicious, though I do think there's more evidence pointing away from it then towards it atm.

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

Read through Element's slot iso again while at work. Took note of their Ming interactions during day 1 here. (also not sure if this is just me, but I kind of find day's 2 and 3 to be difficult to analyze for ill-intent due to how most everyone here wound up coming to similar conclusions in regards to Klick and Hu Tao there to the point where it feels like splitting hairs in some ways trying to separate it).

82- Interaction between Ming and Ele here feels somewhat awkward to me in the world they are partnered. It feels kind of clumsy in the way that I wouldn't expect a planned interaction to be, though it also does feel a tad off that the interaction kind of just ends there. Would probs say this interaction points a little more towards unpaired than paired I think

97- Another semi-awkward Ming interaction. Feels a bit unintuitive/weird for Ming to make 93 kind of calling out elements there if paired. Element's response I feel fine enough about, though I do think it vibes awkwardly that suggest it wasn't planned in advance here. I think this would point to a more improv style of pairing if it was Ming/Elements where they're just winging their interactions, though I do think Occam's Razor the weird interactions here so far make it more likely the slot's aren't partnered here so far.

101- Elements asks Ming to vote with her. Not much to say here. Could very easily be a scum maneuver.

109- Here due to it encapsulating another pertinent interaction between Ming and Elements. 107 on Ming's end feels like it was meant to shade Elements for trying to wagon build in 101. This feels like it undercuts ele in a way that feels +rand to be unpaired

336- Reaches out to Rational in regards to their Ming read. Feels like something ele doesn't make the effort to do if Ming/Ele are partnered (especially given I think this was before that wagon caught fire).

364,366,368,369,376- Gets into a back an forth with Rational over not joining the Ming wagon. This does give notable pings here due to ming's red flip though I think Elements 336 from before helps to mitigate that for me. 364 feels more reasonable to me when you consider she tried to reach out on that before and didn't get a response. (just checked the posts in between 336 and 364 to make sure I wasn't missing any context and think this is more solidified given 349 which imo was an unnecessarily hostile response there)

386- States a PoE that notably doesn't include Ming. Keeping it short here, but this does ping to me as something that point towards Ming/Elements being viable right now. 391 feels reasonable enough of a response, I originally was pinged more due to the fact that I thought she was saying they were going to take another look at Ming tomorrow (as in the next day phase "tomorrow", good thing I reread there lol ) and was wondering why they locked themselves out of Ming day 1 there. Realizing they meant tomorrow as in within the same phase, that does read better than it did before for me. Still feels maybe a tad bit off not to mention them within their PoE given this context.

705- Responds to Ming's solve here. mostly noted here due to Ming inserting Elements into their solve in 703. That feels like it should be notable, but I don't really get much from this tbh. Like on it's own what I mentioned at the start of this blurb is probs NAI because scum can pretty easily put one of their buddies as part of their tenative solve at the time, and I don't really notice any context when looking at nearby adjacent posts that point towards Ming putting Ele in their solve either disingenuously or haphazardly that change the calculus here. Anyways i'm wasting time here, move on

1228- Posts an intent to hammer Ming after a deadline they set within the post is hit. Follows through in 1261. This does feel weird in the sense of giving Ming a deadline to claim here. I see the vision, but I thin the way it played out looks less bad then it seems at first glance. Like if the concept was to signal to scumpartner!Ming to make a claim now, I kind of think they'd do more to try to save Ming afterwards. There's not really any disuasion towards letting the tracer claim live or any attempt to pivot towards another wagon like I might expect if Ele partnered with Ming here. And I do think given what transpired afterwards, this feels closer to NAI than I originally thought.
---
Looking through again, I think right now Ming/Elements feels less likely to be aligned here. I see aspects of things that could be suspicious, though I do think there's more evidence pointing away from it then towards it atm.

this is largely false assumptions. i think you WANT the conclusion to be gypyx town and are trying to force it here.

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

like theyre classic shortcuts I've seen people take.
i also think gypyx's "bussing" comment they recently made is an objective slip but ig its kinda hard to prove since I have mechanical info that incriminates them vs having to solve them via day play atp.

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

like its much more reasonable to conclude they were trying to distance from ming while soft defending the slot. ofc we don't have the benefit of asking elements themselves the question but that's the objective answer fmpov.

[SmileyDude1]

Looking at the Elements/Gypyx slot for partners now as well and I think their partner set also feels somewhat restricting.

Let's remove the obvious no here (Gyp/Grov) and (Gyp/Smile) as well cause I know i'm town.

Gypyx/Aureal- Feels like the bridge on this burned yesterday/beginning of today-ish due to Gypyx's theorizing that Aureal is a Grov partner here. 2468 doesn't feel like a post that someone makes to their scum buddy to me. More pressingly I also see no reason why Gyp would continue to postulate this during day 5 before Grov claimed the guilty on her. Like I don't think there's a reality where Gyp makes 2503 and 2504 before Grov claims the guilty with Aureal as a partner. If Grov town, then scum have a pretty clear win condition of letting me/grov snipe each other down, think scum would be much more likely to stay out of taking sides and attaching their partner to a side in the TvT given they win the game if the TvT goes through regardless. Like it'd be such an unnecessary bus atp in the thread, you could probs just let it play out if that were the case. Think I feel good canning this one, like maybe I could tinfoil it a bit if this came after the guilty claim, though I don't think I see the vision there given it came before it.

In regards to Black/Gibdo, reading though Elements ISO. Both slots are mentioned fairly sparsely from Element's end and mostly in a negative manner (Early suspicion of gibdo for not really doing anything, trying to start a wagon on KJQ slot, later including both of them in their day 2 willing to kill list in 1702. Think the main read to the contrary is Elements retracting their read on Gibdo there in 1726). Gut instinct I don't really get strong association vibes towards either of these here.

I also think there are some independent issues with each pairing.

Gypyx/Gibdo- I struggle with this due to how day 4 went. In the world where this is the solve, it'd mean yesterday wound up landing on town(DGB) vs town (grov) vs town (myself) as the consensus lim candidates for that day phase with no pressure being put onto scum there. My problem is not with the concept of that gamestate, I actually think it's decently feasible that was what transpired yesterday (in any world where Grov is town, it'd have to be what transpired). I'd like to think if that scenario did happen, it'd probs happened due to heavy scum input though. Like I want to believe that doesn't just occur organically with town bickering amongst themselves. It would have to have shaked out that way if Gypyx/Gibdo was the team here though, as they were probs the least active slots during that phase. Thing is if I move my brain past that mental gap, the play does make sense if looked at from that context (after all if town is self-destructing, why get in the middle of it as scum). Will say this is probs the Gyp solve I most can see here, and one I maybe need to think a bit more about. Gut is telling me that yesterday doesn't shake out the way it did if this is the team though.

On Black- I kind of just think the slots town. I go back to a crucial shift in day 1 VC here.

VC 1.14

Hu Tao (4):

Dannflor 606, Grovyle in a Fedora 736, Black 792, Thomith 869

Dannflor (4):

Elements 997, camelCasedSnivy 1001, Hu Tao 1026, DrNickRiviera 1030

awesomeming327 (2):

RationalMadman 266, DrippingGoofball 594

RationalMadman (1):

awesomeming327 412

Not Voting:

Gibdo 604, ActionDan 1012

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2024-04-17 20:15:00)

Notes: Grovyle in a Fedora is V/LA until 4/14 8pm EDT

VC 1.14

awesomeming327 (5):

RationalMadman 266, DrippingGoofball 594, Dannflor 1153, Thomith 1156, Black 792

Dannflor (4):

Elements 997, camelCasedSnivy 1001, Hu Tao 1026, DrNickRiviera 1030

Hu Tao (1):

Grovyle in a Fedora 736

RationalMadman (1):

awesomeming327 412

Not Voting:

Gibdo 604, ActionDan 1012

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2024-04-17 20:15:00)

Notes: Grovyle in a Fedora is V/LA until 4/14 8pm EDT

I do think the pivot from competing Dann/Hu (both dead town) wagons to Ming becoming the main wagon was significant in actually getting that slot eliminated day 1. Given this I think Black's joining vote here is fairly strong indicator that they're not a Ming partner, there's a reality where Ming survives day 1 if that pivot doesn't occur and I think i'm alright townbinning Black because of it (granted I haven't really read over the content of the slot is my point of pause here, though I don't find it pertinent to sort it right now. lim is always Grov or Gypyx and i'll most definitely reread the slot's ISO at some point to check my conclusion when the time comes).

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

id like to think the way i treated ming throughout the day is fairly unpairing in how I treated the slot and where I ended up .

i know i wasn't directly on the ming push or voting there but ming was a poe vote that grew stronger the worse ming looked at eod, i tend to prefer to vote my most likely scum suspect and would have likely ended up on ming there.

probably my ego speaking but i think i was a factor in making ming freeze up once a person he thought he was pocketing started asking difficult questions here:

i think im back to fully townreading dann again btw
elements actually somewhat towny in recent posts

hu tao still my preferred elim here, awesomeming is slipping a little


rational still beating the same scumread into the ground is pretty cringe but the overall readslist that finally shows some holistic thought gives them a day 1 pass for me at this point

I agree with kayjay scum

can you explain why? I don't really see how you reached this honestly based on your progression?

can you post a full reads list whenever you have a chance so I can see where you are at here?

like directly after this is where ming like deadass falls off the face of the planet and i think that just straight up should spew me town

[SmileyDude1]

like theyre classic shortcuts I've seen people take.
i also think gypyx's "bussing" comment they recently made is an objective slip but ig its kinda hard to prove since I have mechanical info that incriminates them vs having to solve them via day play atp.

Explain where I'm shortcutting. If I am taking shortcuts here, I want to be made aware so I can give due consideration.

Also i'd like to hear your perspective on the slip. Help me see what you see there.

like its much more reasonable to conclude they were trying to distance from ming while soft defending the slot. ofc we don't have the benefit of asking elements themselves the question but that's the objective answer fmpov.

Thing is I didn't really get chainsaw vibes from Elements day 1 there. I got the general vibe that they pushed Rational day 1 due to disagreeing with them in terms of game theory and getting generally annoyed by their presence. I didn't really get the vibe they were pushing Madman specifically for their Ming read, like that angle felt somewhat like an afterthought ( I also think if that was their intent, it doesn't make sense to ask madman to clarify, if they'd received proper clarification it'd weaken their grounds to defend the slot). Like it's the type of thing where Elements would be subtly soft-defending their partner Ming there, and tbh I think that argument could be applied to anyone that pushed rational that day phase. FWIW I did go the additional step into looking into living partner interactions here, something I probs don't bother with if I think Ming/Elements is impossible I just think there are aspects that make it feel weird/unlikely to me.

[SmileyDude1]

id like to think the way i treated ming throughout the day is fairly unpairing in how I treated the slot and where I ended up .

i know i wasn't directly on the ming push or voting there but ming was a poe vote that grew stronger the worse ming looked at eod, i tend to prefer to vote my most likely scum suspect and would have likely ended up on ming there.

probably my ego speaking but i think i was a factor in making ming freeze up once a person he thought he was pocketing started asking difficult questions here:

i think im back to fully townreading dann again btw
elements actually somewhat towny in recent posts

hu tao still my preferred elim here, awesomeming is slipping a little


rational still beating the same scumread into the ground is pretty cringe but the overall readslist that finally shows some holistic thought gives them a day 1 pass for me at this point

I agree with kayjay scum

can you explain why? I don't really see how you reached this honestly based on your progression?

can you post a full reads list whenever you have a chance so I can see where you are at here?

like directly after this is where ming like deadass falls off the face of the planet and i think that just straight up should spew me town

About to hop off in a second, but I'll take another look at the end of day to see if I agree with you there,

Some questions for you.

Can I have you case Ming/Elements, feels like we're at an impasse and would like to hear your perspective on it to see where I hypothectically would've went wrong there.

Secondly, while reading through Elements ISO, I noticed this post where they claimed VT day 1

If we vote anyone it should be someone key to extending the DP and who is voting without a good reason.

Vote me then

If you are going to force it I eventually will. Until it's genuinely me vs you, I have to wait to see what happens. I am not eager to force you to claim, it benefits Scum even if you claim and are CC'd and are scum yourself. I need to wait to see others react and get a proper final decision on who I'm voting. Rushing to pressure you is antitown as hell from my perspective. You are too bloodthirsty too fast.

I'm VT
Bam
Claimed
I'm you're easy roll over and die VT claim that is your supposed best option to vote out day 1

Mass claim I see? Town Roleblocker.

Night 1 - no action
Night 2 - Black
Night 3 - Grovyle

ok i can confirm this is a true claim, and since all my targets have claimed I'll just claim early and say I am novice vanilla cop and i checked hu tao n2 and attempted to check dgb last night. i received no result last night.

Can you go more into your night action choices for nights 2 and 3. What motivated you to check those slots over the VT claim?

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

id like to think the way i treated ming throughout the day is fairly unpairing in how I treated the slot and where I ended up .

i know i wasn't directly on the ming push or voting there but ming was a poe vote that grew stronger the worse ming looked at eod, i tend to prefer to vote my most likely scum suspect and would have likely ended up on ming there.

probably my ego speaking but i think i was a factor in making ming freeze up once a person he thought he was pocketing started asking difficult questions here:

i think im back to fully townreading dann again btw
elements actually somewhat towny in recent posts

hu tao still my preferred elim here, awesomeming is slipping a little


rational still beating the same scumread into the ground is pretty cringe but the overall readslist that finally shows some holistic thought gives them a day 1 pass for me at this point

I agree with kayjay scum

can you explain why? I don't really see how you reached this honestly based on your progression?

can you post a full reads list whenever you have a chance so I can see where you are at here?

like directly after this is where ming like deadass falls off the face of the planet and i think that just straight up should spew me town

About to hop off in a second, but I'll take another look at the end of day to see if I agree with you there,

Some questions for you.

Can I have you case Ming/Elements, feels like we're at an impasse and would like to hear your perspective on it to see where I hypothectically would've went wrong there.

Secondly, while reading through Elements ISO, I noticed this post where they claimed VT day 1

If we vote anyone it should be someone key to extending the DP and who is voting without a good reason.

Vote me then

If you are going to force it I eventually will. Until it's genuinely me vs you, I have to wait to see what happens. I am not eager to force you to claim, it benefits Scum even if you claim and are CC'd and are scum yourself. I need to wait to see others react and get a proper final decision on who I'm voting. Rushing to pressure you is antitown as hell from my perspective. You are too bloodthirsty too fast.

I'm VT
Bam
Claimed
I'm you're easy roll over and die VT claim that is your supposed best option to vote out day 1

Mass claim I see? Town Roleblocker.

Night 1 - no action
Night 2 - Black
Night 3 - Grovyle

ok i can confirm this is a true claim, and since all my targets have claimed I'll just claim early and say I am novice vanilla cop and i checked hu tao n2 and attempted to check dgb last night. i received no result last night.

Can you go more into your night action choices for nights 2 and 3. What motivated you to check those slots over the VT claim?

simple answer is I don't remember seeing that vt claim or if I did I did not take it as serious enough to influence my night action choice

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

like theyre classic shortcuts I've seen people take.
i also think gypyx's "bussing" comment they recently made is an objective slip but ig its kinda hard to prove since I have mechanical info that incriminates them vs having to solve them via day play atp.

Explain where I'm shortcutting. If I am taking shortcuts here, I want to be made aware so I can give due consideration.

Also i'd like to hear your perspective on the slip. Help me see what you see there.

like its much more reasonable to conclude they were trying to distance from ming while soft defending the slot. ofc we don't have the benefit of asking elements themselves the question but that's the objective answer fmpov.

Thing is I didn't really get chainsaw vibes from Elements day 1 there. I got the general vibe that they pushed Rational day 1 due to disagreeing with them in terms of game theory and getting generally annoyed by their presence. I didn't really get the vibe they were pushing Madman specifically for their Ming read, like that angle felt somewhat like an afterthought ( I also think if that was their intent, it doesn't make sense to ask madman to clarify, if they'd received proper clarification it'd weaken their grounds to defend the slot). Like it's the type of thing where Elements would be subtly soft-defending their partner Ming there, and tbh I think that argument could be applied to anyone that pushed rational that day phase. FWIW I did go the additional step into looking into living partner interactions here, something I probs don't bother with if I think Ming/Elements is impossible I just think there are aspects that make it feel weird/unlikely to me.

my argument is going to be summed up as "you have bias" and you're going to go "nuh uh" like you already have and its going to go in circles.

i don't think your vibes are correct quite frankly and you're avoiding the conclusion that is correct out of wanting to have been correct on me the previous dayphase.

[Gypyx]

id like to think the way i treated ming throughout the day is fairly unpairing in how I treated the slot and where I ended up .

i know i wasn't directly on the ming push or voting there but ming was a poe vote that grew stronger the worse ming looked at eod, i tend to prefer to vote my most likely scum suspect and would have likely ended up on ming there.

probably my ego speaking but i think i was a factor in making ming freeze up once a person he thought he was pocketing started asking difficult questions here:

i think im back to fully townreading dann again btw
elements actually somewhat towny in recent posts

hu tao still my preferred elim here, awesomeming is slipping a little


rational still beating the same scumread into the ground is pretty cringe but the overall readslist that finally shows some holistic thought gives them a day 1 pass for me at this point

I agree with kayjay scum

can you explain why? I don't really see how you reached this honestly based on your progression?

can you post a full reads list whenever you have a chance so I can see where you are at here?

like directly after this is where ming like deadass falls off the face of the planet and i think that just straight up should spew me town

Wdym Ming was pockting you, he litterally never talked to you