Open 768: C9++ [GAME OVER]

[pisskop]

hmmm

ill unvote for now, but i side with ducks
.VOTE: unvote

[skitter30]

kind of sus for inaction
but not scum yet

^^a50

Very sus for inaction, beginning to encroach into scum behavior

+ trying to push town!nsg yesterday was awful

[pisskop]

i thought ducks claimed 1shot?

[Volpe14]

Skitt, I'm 89% confident that he is completely bullshit'ing here, buying time and fishing for info

and I want to prove it right now

I've gambit'ed along and against duck and right now I'm very confident that this is it.

This whole game makes sense if I consider duck scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Why would Wooper bind his own fate to faking a cop scan on Day 2 though?

[skitter30]

it's fairly necessary for me to claim honestly today for obvious reasons so I'm functionally unlikely to get more than one shot off.

[skitter30]

I agree that there's a fairly likely chance he's bs'ing
He never gets lynched here over teacher

[Volpe14]

He's not bidding anything in my pov. I'll explain.

[NorwegianboyEE]

But he get's lynched on D3 if we find out he lied.
Scum only gains 1 day before they are guaranteed to lose one.

[Volpe14]

First let's go back to teacher doctor claim:

Teacher claimed before even actually being put on L-1, and with a 1-shot doctor flipped, we confirm that there's at least one full doctor in the setup. This points to teacher likely being town unless someone else claims doctor.

Wooper is claiming Full Cop as far as I'm understanding.

Let's assume hypothetically town!Wooper and consider as fact that we've at least one full doc here too.

If we assume that, we've CC and DD

at the very least

, but that would mean 3 TTT (2 Goons + Roleblocker + SK) and I think we likely have no SK with N1 results, therefore we would need at least need one more letter, not two, but maybe three to remove the SK in the setup.

Three more letters would mean we've a 0 T's setup, which is really unlikely in my opinion, therefore it makes the more sense right now to think one more letter.

However, one more letter means we can't possibly have "DDDD", which is 2 doctors + 1-shot doctor, therefore math points

strongly

towards the fact there's only one doctor in this setup unless we've rolled 0 T's (0,7% of chances of that happening as far as I can calculate).

Occam's razor (99,3% of the times), just says that if Wooper is a full cop, there's absolutely another doctor here and teacher is really just scum.

If no one counterclaims teacher though, Wooper is full of bullshit.

If Wooper isn't a full cop, there's literally no merit to not sort this now. But I'll tell you what I think smart duck is doing here:

He is being obtuse about his claim here by not hard claiming 1-shot or full, and is fishing for info/reactions to see if there's "another" full cop or 1-shot cop here (if the claim is safe).

Notice for example this questioning and his own explanation for that:

why SL on Dr. D and why hard town on volpe?

I'm just asking the question, settle down.

Nor having you as his sole nonmech townread made me curious so I wanted to see his reasoning

at the exclusion of hard townreading any other slots.

I think wooper tried to fish if Norwe was a possibly 1-shot cop with a check on me for example.

Not only that but if things go wrong he can also back down here with a "it was for reactions :<", what might even make some people think it's towny of him since he would be *trying* to sort but more important than anything note that it's distracting from the trajetory that this day would have had (Wooper getting suspected since the day start).

It's like, a very sly trick to have better odds of surviving here, with no real drawbacks that I think scum!duck does here because he likes to gambit and I've personally seen it and gambitted along with him.

It doesn't even make sense for a cop!Wooper to have cooped teacher in his own progression:

don't touch n1 or ur stuppid:
skitter30

teacher

NorwegianboyEE
Volpe14 Nibbui
Almost50 ceejayvinoya
northsidegal Blatant Scum
DrDolittle

PR!Duck doesn't target someone that claimed PR in a C9++ setup when the setup schtick is to make fakeclaiming almost impossible for scum.

He also was thinking that teacher was on "the trajectory to town tell" and flaking on pushing their slot, therefore a cop there really doesn't make sense.

[skitter30]

Maybe we'll do some bayesian inference later, who knew this would be helpful out in the wild

Ya
I havent run it yet but the odds are p small i think, esp given no sk

Not sure if he's bs'ing, and if he is i'm not sure that makes him scum

[skitter30]

Also from his pov there have to be three scum, but he mentioned the possibility of only 2

I'm not sure that's him pretending to be ignorant of the setup or him not realizing the ramifications, or something else

[Volpe14]

If he is bs'ing but town he should stop it right now and organically engage the thread instead of doing something like that.

if he's town gambitting, teacher isn't even worthy of faking a guilty on since he claimed PR. I think if he wanted to sort someone with "reactions", he would have said he had a guilty on A50, Wicked, Egix or something. Not teacher.

I feel he's buying time and getting info at the same time when if he backs down closer to deadline/when another wagon is getting heat, you're going to do exactly what you're doing now and say "well, ok".

Then yeah I want to cut this "let's resolve it later" bs right now.

[Almost50]

Also i'm kinda sus of a50

GOOD! Keep it that way. Not a serious push and not an explicit clear is the

PERFECT

stance.

[Volpe14]

It's exactly because everyone was buying the "let's resolve later" but not minding if he later backed down that I SR him now.

If he hadn't said this he would be getting heat on in this very moment as it's clear from the the day 2 first pages but now he has dodged it

[skitter30]

He's put himself in a position where he has to be resolved before endgame, so i dont really mind the phase play out

Scum dont put themselves in positions where they have to indefinitely generate innos, they just dont.

If he later backs down he gets lynched

[skitter30]

Also i'm kinda sus of a50

GOOD! Keep it that way. Not a serious push and not an explicit clear is the

PERFECT

stance.

I'm voting you

[Almost50]

Also i guess if there's a 1s cop they might as well share the results? I think

Not until they are done catching up though

[NorwegianboyEE]

Volpe's case seems kinda far fetched as compared to Wooper just being a cop that got a guilty check.

[Almost50]

who shot northsidegal >:[

I would take that as a guilty plea tbh. That's EXACTLY the kind of question scum asking after they had shot someone.

VOTE: DDL

[skitter30]

Also i guess if there's a 1s cop they might as well share the results? I think

Not until they are done catching up though

Oh ffs

Volpe's case seems kinda far fetched as compared to Wooper just being a cop that got a guilty check.

No

[Volpe14]

If he later backs down he gets lynched

no if he backs down later in the day when someone else is getting heat on he isn't gonna lynched and this is why:

Not sure if he's bs'ing, and if he is i'm not sure that makes him scum

The more I think about it, the more I realize that it's doubtful a player like teacher claims when he's at L-2 with no intent in a setup where it's easy to be outed as a fakeclaim later. He might have hold it against his chest for a bit more of time until it was inevitable to claim.

[Volpe14]

Wooper if you're going to back down on teacher you'll back down right now.

You'll not wait until late day to back down on it. that's not flying with me here.

if you hard claim though I'm fine with giving you my vote today.

[Volpe14]

If you back down right now and start participating in the game again I might retract my SR on you, but it needs to be

now

.

[Almost50]

I still have too many town reads

Like I go back, and I think hmm Norgeboi and Egix are kind of scummy.

i think whopper flip is impertinent to opening this game up regardless of him-town or scum.
VOTE: whopper

I think (Volpe14, a50) have v mild scum equity

So, you have "too many TRs", but you have 2 suspects in that same post. Then you go and vote a third person, only to come back and shade yet 2 additional slots.

I wonder how it would have looked if you has too many SRs