Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Prism]

i have no intention of "Separating Entirely".

that's what it says

and then it NIGHTKILLS ME

[Prism]

I also realize it probably sucks for Krazy to be pitching ideas to me only to have me be like "No that's wrong, but my own is valid. Minor hiccups only." repeatedly so I'm sorry I am like this

[Prism]

Sorry Chara but I'm doing what I do best when faced with the fear of abandonment in an otherwise rewarding, committed friendship/partnership

Abandoning them before they abandon me

NO MORE HEARTS

[Prism]

It absolutely needs interrupting Tanner, thank you for doing so

Also I'm bad at mafia and have single-handedly lost my team the game in two other scenarios like this so sheeping me is typically bad

Granted I was right on the first scum in both of those games

[Prism]

Do you still want Lavender the most, or have you switched around a bit?

[Prism]

I know my obsessiveness+investment has only gone up and up, and I've been terrible at making space for others even as I've tried to back off.

I really don't like having the position of "hail prism" or "sheep prism" though. I like to work together towards answers, not bend the town to my will. Even if I'm right there

has

to have been a more cooperative way to do it, and if I lose it for us it's just shit for everyone.

The trouble right now seems to be that the consensus answer (Krazy) just... doesn't quite have the votes and is off by one/two. But no one else has majority either.

[Prism]

IDK, this game is a perfect example of why I'm a double-edged sword: Passionate to a fault, and a chronic unilateralist

[Prism]

(if you seriously want me to stop, i will stop.)

the three Tanner listed are the only slots i'd be alright flipping today. my preference is towards Taylor, i think, but it's not because of Prism's solve, and it depends on what i think of the Krazy read.

I would really, really hate to see a Krazy vote.

But I can't make people read SIN and see what catboi and I saw. If there's no one else, and you think Taylor is more town than them on reread, just flip them.

Taylor has a decent chance of town flipping imo. But she also has a very good (>50% imo) chance of flipping scum. I can't say the same for Krazy.

[Prism]

It was to Puppy but I'm with you (Tanner) as far as just wanting blood and going in circles.

P-Edit: I think Lavender is in between Tayl0r/Krazy. They're not an awful vote, they have a chance of being scum but just picturing them flipping town-and we learn basically nothing from it, only from the Chara flip- is soulsucking. I'm also a bit blinded by thinking they're unlikely to be with Hectic, but that's putting the cart before the horse

[Prism]

Like my biggest fear for the day is that Lavender flips town and Tayl0r flips Chara. The thought of it drives me insane, but I guess objectively the position isn't terrible.

P-EDIT NO

NO NO NO NO NO

[Prism]

READ THE LAST PAGE I AM NOT THE TOWN DICTATOR/APPOINTED ROYALTY


PLEASE DO NOT DO RHIS TO ME

[Prism]

I mean if you get the votes for it you can make Lavender happen, or if it's obvious I can't get the Taylor votes and have to choose between Lab/someone else instead, but for now my vote sticks.

[Prism]

There is objectively no real reason to be that worried. Even if my team is right, and I got night killed without ever FoSing Hectic, we

still[/] would have a good chance of winning the game.

I'm just a relentless perfectionist, when I really should try less, but on the other hand, it's on y'all to harness that without giving me the reins entirely

[Prism]

I think Lavender is a much better Day 3 flip, when our odds for hitting scum are at their worst point (1/7)

Like obviously they're a great fight if they're scum but I just don't feel it and want Taylor

[Prism]

Chara. Why Lav over Taylor?

[Prism]

I also don't have Chara is a townlock, there's a good chance of it being town but depending on the flips (is. It is not Taylor+Hectic) they should absolutely be on the table imo

[Prism]

Lavender plays like this every game. If you want to spend one of our best shots coinflipping over voting a (not necessarily Taylor) scumread, then sure. I'm sticking to my scumread vote personally.

This might be intractable given our respective scumreads though RIP

[Prism]

Of Lavender is Chara I will for sure hit the bottle and feel stupid but at least I can hold my head up high and say I was wrong on my own terms

[Prism]

Would love to hear more of the town Taylor case. No one has been able to persuade me so far though so maybe I'm just being stubborn.

[Prism]

I must choose between being the unilateralist and strongarming a vote on my scumread as a town dictator, or letting the people have their way and voting in a way that kills the blossomed flower of my soul

Maybe this is my Javert scene where I start a hurt wagon on myself

[Prism]

Okay, I need to not give into despair here.

I think it's worth noting, Chara, that beeboy's two posts immediately before pushing Tayl0r are these:

Ok in my defense, I actually just went to the ER today and was stuck for around 7 hours.
Which is something I 100% wouldn't lie about.

Although keep the votes on me until the morning please today was too long for me to care as

I made myself sick right after joining this game and it realllllyyy sucks.
Unlikely I am capable of going from sick -> probably burn out -> high preformance. If that is what you guys are waiting for.
Given I am only on step 1 right now >_>

IMO, this makes distancing incredibly probable. I think it was Pooky who first brought this to my attention.

[Prism]

beeboy was at L-2, with me also declaring my intention to vote him unless something happened on Hectic, at the time of his Tayl0r pivot.

[Prism]

nvm I'm using today's numbers they only had 4 votes I"m stupid

[Prism]

Okay, either way, I'm going to not give into my despair by the sudden onset of 4 (5 incl. Tayl0r, 6 incl. Krazy which makes majority) on Lavender, but I will take a break before I get too emotional again

i still love you deep down chara but i'm sleeping on the couch for awhile, maybe this can be salvaged but maybe it can't. i...i just don't know

[Prism]

MT+Puppy are both willing to but haven't voted

i'm not town dictator stop it

[Prism]

even if i'm right and tayl0r is scum, i would feel zero joy in just strongarming votes people actively oppose

it might wind up with lavender flipping town and me getting nightkilled but this is going to be collaborative goddamnit

[Prism]

OKAY

STEPPING AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER

THROWING MY PHONE INTO THE FOREST

[Prism]

HURT: Chara

[Prism]

Elements 410 continues to bother me. I don't like its attitude around Hectic all game: Have an idea of how to read them, but has never really put that into motion. Timing of their vote on Hectic yesterday was extremely questionable, and I don't like their traversal around the lurker slots today.

[Prism]

I skimmed Noir last night by the way Pooky. I think it's pretty null overall but Tayl0r's reads were again better in that game than this one...though not by a lot. Lot of the same lines. Still my second vote.

[Prism]

So did Hectic just feel like bussing Elements then? Which would make him the Not Chara in any case

Hectic definitely isn't Chara, I think a bus is plausible and I hate his Day 1 but there are reasons to think he's town (At one point doubles down on Elements at easy turning point, reaction to me today was surprisingly unworried and off the cuff when pressing him/Tayl0r. Lavender defense was...not a good move as scum imo, but plausible)

[Prism]

I've been obsessed with associatives all game. I don't need to nail 2 and it's a waste of time to try to be omniscient. I only need one.

[Prism]

I don't think that's true. I'm pretty sure she's scum with no one.

The 6 votes/declarations of willingness to vote are Morning, Taylor, Chara, Tanner, Puppy, and perhaps Krazy

The 3 who are strongly pushing somewhere else are me, Hectic, and Pooky.

I don't think any of those 3 are paired with Lavender.

[Prism]

Feel free to delve into your Hectic read using the game yourself, you don't need to wait on me to do so and I've seen it inform zero.

For willingness to vote, test it if you want, but something tells me you will find the six votes quite quickly.

Hectic's defense and open coaching of Lavender Day 1 would be getting towncred in the event we flip Lab at some point, not scum protection services.

[Prism]

Like, apparently you've kept a careful eye on Hectic all game. You didn't really read my points up until that one sequence of quotes that immediately struck your soul. This mystical game of Your Nightmare has help guide you to your current read.

...And despite that close eye, careful consideration of meta, and generally paying more attention to him, you vanity vote him and ask "What if he's Chara?" when that was blatantly not the case

Things like the sincerity of his posts now that you reread him again seem extremely hollow and nonsensical.

[Prism]

It's possible but I'm mostly through with trying to teamsolve right now as opposed to just nailing Chara for bad progressions on both Hectic+beeboy, and to a lesser extent me/catboi, and calling it a

P-Edit: will read in a sec

[Prism]

I also want to respond to your Noir analysis when I get to a computer-I remember thinking she was noticeably a bit lost in both games, but more willing to defend a partner in Noir. I'm pretty confused by her being a lot more open in general in both games, and even though in Noir her reads had more depth they still didn't reach the Newbie iirc

[Prism]

Hectic straight trolled his team by powerbussing a regular mafia as Chara. Like, that strategy is so uniquely bad that I would love for Hectic to flip Chara overnight.

Chara doesn't powerbus because they only get a single day to use the towncred, and just halved their team's chance of winning to get it

[Prism]

Yes bad progression on beeboy. You literally contentprod voted him, openly gave the slot a reset for the replacement, and then said it wasn't content-based after the fact with zero justification

[Prism]

The issue with the Hectic vote is you're literally willing to vote him in the heat of the moment over this read you've been forming yourself over weeks. No thanks, it feels performative and you were latching onto me. Basically all of my criticism/questions of your play earlier were responded to by just fawning over me which, sure, I appreciate and all, but did not make them more plausible and the timing of your paranoia/townreads/null cooperation cycle has just been randomly going all game...Except for the times I press you, when all paranoia magically goes out the window

I'm too lazy to postlink but looking back I'm referring to you saying beeboy hadn't done anything+can't analyze Elements anymore when you thought you weren't voting the slot, and then I misinterpreted a bit later where you said your contentprod vote was because you weren't getting townfeelings from either and that the vote had nothing to do with readability (which I remembered as like, lurking)

[Prism]

Like your in the moment reactions have tended to be good but I don't see any other reason to townread you this game

[Prism]

right, well, this is my pick for the day. cheers.

[Prism]

This has actually gone on long enough.

The last thing I wanted to see from you was frustration with me, because reading through your scum PT in Undertale 2.0 made it clear you wanted a TR from me and it was still plausible that you were doing that this game. The issue is you scum throws everything off completely.

The ???? bad beeboy progression post was probably when I should have called it a day but I decided to wait.

Anyway you can be locktown now even if it cost us our marriage

HURT: Isis

[Prism]

Yes.

Your progressions have been fine, and your vote on Hectic was very natural.

I realize I am high-key insane for this

but I got the read I wanted

[Prism]

I wanted to see you lose your patience with me as opposed to the "You explain away the problems so eloquently..." and "So polite to work with..."

Am I proud? Not at all, but I could stare at your ISO and have faith or I could test how genuine it was directly

[Prism]

I really don't think Lavender has a partner, though. That part was sincere.

Anyway you'd be extremely justified in hating me+not wanting to work with me from here

[Prism]

We can revisit it postgame. For now, I will say you are completely valid and that while I do/did care, my preference was revealed by my choice. It is important to hold me accountable for it. I preferred to fight it out with you for an hour to being paranoid about you the rest of the game. And it probably wasn't worth it.

[Prism]

Lavender is at 4. The only people missing are Krazy/Puppy. I don't think either are scum, Chara.

I'm going to throw my vote back on Taylor but will still revisit.

HURT: Taylor

[Prism]

You know, I just intentionally got under the skin of a player I really do adore playing and interacting with just to satisfy my own paranoia and obsessive ego

There is also a very non-zero chance I am currently the scumteam MVP as town.

Maybe it is time to throw in the towel and just flip Lavender.

[Prism]

Hectic/Taylor is still my top solve, I also had Taylor/Morning as possible along with a few others that had me paranoid

[Prism]

HURT: Lavender

Someone just hammer it.

[Prism]

If Krazy comes in an Chara hammers this I am moving to the woods and never communicating with civilization again

[Prism]

This is almost certainly a townflip but the two other games I got like this I also steadily drove myself insane before throwing in the towel early so I might as well keep the tradition alive

[Prism]

Stronger scumread? Hectic

More likely to actually flip scum? Taylor

[Prism]

Lavender is spectating this game anyway and while I've been a workhorse it is time to take me out behind the barn before I get anymore insane

[Prism]

HURT: Taylor

I am a mess but also shouldn't be defeatist

w/e I'll pick up in the morning, Jesus Christ

[Prism]

I have taken small breaks but I am taking a 48 hour vacation. Whatever happens in that time happens. If we flip Lavender/Krazy and I get night killed, it happens.

My reads are like,

Very town: Puppy, Chara, Krazy
Likely town: Lavender (votes), Pooky (basically only works with 2 deepwolves, maybe Krazy?)
Next on deck: Tanner, Morning
Scum: Taylor, Hectic

Krazy, not hammering was generous but might be worth explaining why you don't just take it since Chara flips+that's your best counterwagon for sure. Iirc you were scumreading the slot.

Also worth noting Chara doesn't have to instahammer, potentially sets up misfight but really doubt it.

Chara, I do love you.

That is all that I can think of that I might need to get off my chest before nightphase

Any Prism sightings should be reacted to with extreme prejudice and the throwing of rotten fruit

[Prism]

All good things must come to an end, and so my vacation is one of them.

What did I do? Well, the world was my oyster. I skipped my workout two days in a row. Life is too short to waste it on some life-extending ponzi scheme. I went to the store and bought a half gallon of chocolate chip cookie dough ice cream. I didn't get through all of it, alas some tasks remain unfinished. I didn't think about the mafia game. I haven't even read any posts.

But...I do have some news to break.

You see Hectic's V/LA? Well, we took a bit of a beach vacation...

together

. After Chara and I fell apart, I needed to move on, you know? And with the stress of the mafia game, I figured it was time for some sunshine: to feel the warmth on my skin, to take a dip in the cool water, to watch the sky bathed in sunset afterglow. And Hectic? Well, we may not always see eye to eye, but something about that

stache

...

Spoiler: Prism and Hectic's Beach Activities

First, we planted some sunflowers. This one reminded me of Morning Tweet. The big one in the back is Puppy.

Next, we went to the top of an amusement park and took in the sights.

Finally, we enjoyed the sun fading gently over the horizon, dying the sea that lovely deep blue.


The next stop was apparently something called "Corona Mountain". I felt now might not be the best time for that, so we came home a bit early.

[Prism]

Also, I had this thought earlier in the day that Tanner was tryharding a little too much when the game was kinda stalled and Sujimichi was the only real wagon. People weren't really in it, but Tanner was still putting the effort in to reply and interact with many things. It's possible scum!Tanner felt the need to keep up content if he wants to have a chance to deepwolf this game. Admittedly though, this does go against what I know of scum!Datisi in recent times, who has a lot less WIM then town!Datisi.

???????

I've literally spent all day playing like I'm in 3 way in a 250 page game, when in reality town literally has like 4 chances to fight scum. How on earth have the alarm bells sounded for Tanner over me? You started the day pushing me but have essentially stopped since I kicked into overdrive.

To clarify on this: It felt like he was forcing himself to in a way.

I think Tanner makes a lot more sense as

Chara

then regular scum, since I don't think scum!Tanner's heart would be in it as much unless they knew the finish line was in sight, at least for their slot. Meanwhile, Krazy is confirmed not-ChArA unless he's pulling a conspiracy-brained move of making town!Lavender look even worse tomorrow when he flips as ChArA tonight.

Sigh, this feels wrong and bad, but I think it makes more sense to do this, considering Tanner is the far more likely ChArA than Krazy is:

HURT: Tanner

??? again, if Tanner is tryharding the day and setting himself up for the next day he's unlikely to be Chara. Their heart being more in it and posting more because "the finish line is in sight" like, cursory makes sense but in reality he just wants the stalled wagon to wrap up ASAP

[Prism]

Tanner is probably #3 on my list atm after Tayl0r/Hectic. I wasn't persuaded they were scum by Krazy's case but it does tell me I need to look over his push on Puppy with a much closer and more skeptical eye rather than giving it a pass just because.

This is really minor Krazy but questioning you about your Hectic progression seems to make sense, as 1561 appears to imply that some parts of Hectic's game are scummy.

though the longer this goes on (and i'm somewhat certain you're not chara) the more i have the urge to just give in and start pushing for your fight. either you're scum trying to set basis for my execution the next day, or you're town and wrong and tunnelled.

I'm glad you're on Tayl0r right now but the process of even thinking to vote someone who is unlikely Chara here is questionable

[Prism]

The first post there, 324, is a big problem imo in 2 ways. First, it came in the midst of me absolutely grilling him for playing it safe with a Pooky vote and challenged him to give a real read. Second, he completely ignores the fact that Elements was wrong in Hectic in all of the games described. I had to ask him for the background, at which point he only reluctantly said, paraphrasing "but still he's overplaying it"

I'm also still bothered by the push today blatantly not evolving at all overnight with the flip. When you have an idea going into the night, you chew it on it for a few days. You take the flip into account. Hectic's opening push on me at daystart was blatantly stuck pre-flip Night 1, and he admitted it. He didn't do any of the investigation one would expect from his described paranoia of me-looking at my interactions with the flipped scum, for example.

either way this isn't the vote today so I guess I can revisit it later, I'm kind of having to work my way back into reading/playing

[Prism]

Eh, actually, trying to work my way back through the catalog tonight probably isn't a good idea since it's late and I'm getting tired. I'll work back into it while I'm fresh tomorrow.

[Prism]

I also owe Tayl0r a lot in the morning, too, now that I think of it with the linked game+I need to review Noir again, should probably just review the entire slot again while I'm at it along w/ Tanner

[Prism]

that catboi progression is still nonsense and the hectic 180 was completely out of left field

482 is basically the only problem to me, along with her in Noir being more reluctant to pressure her partners (though chara is essentially encouraged to do this day 1)

I also completely forgot to dig into the lavender wall, super happy to see that but yeah that's a tomorrow project

ok night morning, glad to be back y'all

[Prism]

the problem is Lav/Tayl0r are probably town

I would love to hear more about the second of these, but even the first would go a long way. You haven't updated your Lavender read since the very first wall she gave. Is she someone you've revisited as more and more people have continued to become hardtown?

Tayl0r is obviously the one I'm more interested in. The towncase for them, as best as I can tell FYPOV, has been that their vote swap off you would be weird as scum, and that beeboy pushed them. Is this accurate? Do you strongly believe in these things, or is there something I'm missing her? My 2102 might be worth reading for the beeboy push, btw.

[Prism]

nvm you answered the Lavender part in your more recent post

[Prism]

Lavender's readlist is basically the consensus reads for this game. Maybe we're wrong to think of her as a slot with an alignment. Maybe she's just a symbol of the cultural zeitgeist for this game, reflecting the sum of us all, her posts like a can of freshly mixed paint arising from a combination of many: one part Prism, one part Pooky, one part Tanner...

I wish I had actual substantial thoughts about that wall. Instead I am basically thinking they're town for votes/PoE and hoping I'm right. I...guess I buy the Pooky read?

[Prism]

So I've been working on the Tanner ISO. I'm through about 101 posts of 128.

I feel

significantly

better about this slot and strongly doubt it is scum. Every single piece of this ISO lines up. Every read, every progression, every single thought one way or another gets tied together or shines through later down the line past-present-future. The only mistake Tanner-scum has made all game long is overplaying his paranoid hand of Puppy, but even the early stages of that (until 1440) are actually really good, even though I disagree in his conclusion it all adds up extremely well.

I'm starving so I'm taking a break for lunch, but I'll finish the last 27 posts and I'll try and type up a more complete wall outlining what I mean w/ clear examples when I get back.

I don't think there's any way that I vote this slot today.

[Prism]

Oh jesus christ based off timestamps I've been at this for almost 2 hours

[Prism]

Some food-munching thoughts are that I left off thinking "I am 100% gladiating Hectic tomorrow, maybe even today" based both off eliminating Tanner from PoE+reading Hectic's side of their interactions in general. I've still got work to do before I get to that point, but some immediate thoughts.

"Maybe even today" led me to the "He's not Chara" thoughts, but now I'm wondering if Hectic

did

hardtroll his team with that beeboy wagon. It makes several of his plays this game make immediate more sense (initial sparepush, sparepush pt. 2 featuring not even trying to persuade people on Morning specifically, interaction w/ me seemed to be playing to confirm he's scum with Tayl0r rather than to salvage the game, Lavender def looks pretty bad if he flips Chara overnight N1). Maybe that wagon was set to distance but got out of control?

Need to revisit this after Tanner/Tayl0r.

[Prism]

A big part of me still thinks it's Krazy, and if he's

Chara

, didn't take the hammer because he knows he's unlikely to be FOUGHT after that anyway, and can make town!Lav look even worse tomorrow, but it feels stupid to pursue that route, since instead of taking the hammer, Krazy proceeded to scumcase Tanner and contribute in other ways, which is just providing more and more associatives in the case he is

Chara

who's gonna be sunk tonight.

Okay. Can you now take this and explain why you still think it's Krazy?

You dodged my question of why Tanner kinda trying at the start of the day makes him scummy in comparison to the person who is literally playing like it's a 250 page 3 way, even forgetting the two facts that 1) Tanner has noticeably struggled to stay motivated+put in serious work all game long 2) This makes complete sense from the POV of someone worried about a bus

[Prism]

I'd also love to hear your meta evaluation of Tayl0r based off of

the game you played with her that was totally different

rather than simple "disengagement is more likely town" (iirc she also spoke about being weak early game in Noir but I digress, haven't looked at it in awhile+that's a bit different)

[Prism]

I agree that at multiple points Tanner has seemed to be forcing himself to tackle the game/put in the effort. All game he's been openly demotivated and struggled. Now can you explain as to why this is scum indicative?

When you say "forcing himself" do you mean he's putting on the bussing act here, that he's faking motivation at points, or what?

If you have to wait until you're on a desktop to quote then sure but the entire basis for here seems extremely weak and is at best a tone read.

[Prism]

I forget how tired I get after I eat so the Tanner-towncase heavy lifting is probably going to come in 4/5 hours after a nap than anything soon btw, my apologies

[Prism]

And does town!Tanner need to force themselves to effort early to mid this day phase after the game is going swimmingly with a day 1 scum launch? I see it as more like that scum!Tanner feels the need after the game is going disastrously after a day 1 scum launch. It's scum-indicative but nothing concrete, a feeling of the guts

Tanner noticeably thought about the flip+reviewed how the game interacted with it overnight. 1064.

I'm also skeptical of the trying too hard point to begin with, since Tanner started pretty naturally w/ reflections on the wagon+where to go from here and then quickly got into it with you about his LHF push on Lav and with his suspicion of Puppy for trying to spare. One of these is a response, one is totally original and had no one else to present it if he didn't.

[Prism]

Fair enough. I'll wait until you get a chance to review.

[Prism]

to be clear, i linked 1064 to provide evidence for why he's worried about a bus+why it's worth being a bit worried about as town-Tanner, rather than the more natural reaction being to check out entirely

[Prism]

Since you're speaking off the top of your head Hectic, without really needing to reference too much/compare post by post for us...

Can you speak about what you remember about your game with Tayl0r and how those memories have influenced your read on the slot?

[Prism]

I guess the third time asking wasn't the charm after all.

Enjoy food.

[Prism]

Thanks! I am a bit concerned that you're jumping to the conclusion there as opposed to explaining how you've thought about her over the course of the game. Looking at the dates they overlapped a bit more than I thought, though, so maybe there isn't a clear process.

[Prism]

Chara's job is to either get spared or dodge one fight. It's really not a big deal if people are worried that you're Chara Day 1 just for your strategy choice as long as you don't wind up getting fought for it.

Second point is that I'm wondering if I've been in the wrong frame of mind with thinking hard bus->not Chara. Challenging hard bus paradigm and rereading with the alternate possibility in mind will probably be helpful. It might go nowhere and have my conclude the same thing as before.

[Prism]

Rereading my own post there it's pretty clear that I'm spitballing an alternate theory, posing it as a question to myself to revisit/investigate more.

[Prism]

Alright, I'm up and at some point soon I'll work my way back around

Pooky-do you have any big points on Tanner you want me to chew on? I can't remember off the top of my head

[Prism]

Chara, I'm really wondering what you're thinking right now and who you'd like to see fought. I'm especially curious now that the push on Tanner is more developed, and now that I'm reviewing the Hectic-Chara theory I shot down too quickly that you posed a few days ago

Is there anybody you want to talk about with me, or anybody you really want to see flipped? How can I make this game better for you?

[Prism]

I think I know how to evaluate Lavender down the line probably and there is little info to be gained if we misfight them

i just remembered this post for some reason

@morning

is there an update on this?

Morning-Did you ever answer this? I'm also curious about what idea you had in mind here.

[Prism]

It looks like you explained the little info but I'm curious as to how you were thinking to evaluate them?

[Prism]

i dislike not having a vote on someone, but i'm not feeling this as strongly anymore, and it is anyway probably not happening HURT: isis

So this is your unvote on Puppy. I've got a pretty good idea of the events, but can you run down more explicitly why your read weakened? You were getting a lot of pushback, but I'm curious as to what was going on internally that made

your

perspective weaken.

some games the townspewing machine is simply broke and i get executed and then people go "wait how did that flip town??"

Can you link one/two games like this?

[Prism]

Maybe I should have made my towncase in one sitting. I forgot a few things and found a few more issues that didn't stick out to me earlier.

Spoiler: The good: Tracing through a progression on Elements

Basically all of Tanner's progressions are great and tie together. I think there's like, one questionable one on Tayl0r but that's it. One of the main progressions that stuck out to me as being extremely coherent+tying together cleanly is Tanner's thinking on Elements. I'm not going to delve into it fully, but there's one section in particular that sticks out.

These snippets are both part of larger posts (Click the numbers to skim) and are a full day apart.

elements's pooky/puppy/tanner team is a... spicy take.

ugh, okay. it's already way past 3am here and i'm pretty tired and this game is uninspiring, so. i was hoping that elements would be back to elaborate on his reads or that lavender would be back to do

something

since those are the two things that interest me the most at the moment but alas.

Significantly later, I ask him about an entirely separate part of his progression on Elements.

First, it's worth noting that this explanation is

excellent

in and of itself itself. This takeaway from Pooky's post is completely plausible and his explanation lines up with the two posts above.

But the bolded is great-he remembers the two one-liners above and instantly connects back to them. This is over two weeks later!

The only read of theirs that is worth more of an explanation to me is the progression from 892 to 898 on Elements.

Tanner-When you said the takeaway from the catchup was you were fine with Elements, can you talk what made you feel this way?

i think 898 was made after i read page 35 and the top of page 36, and i'm decently sure 865 is what made me feel okay enough with that fight on day one. not outright a scumread, but enough that i didn't feel the urge to strongly and actively fight it.

the progression on pooky plainly didn't make sense.

and it reminded me how elements's 535 surprised me back when it was made, since i don't think i was a popular scumread at the time, so i was looking forward to seeing ele explain what he was seeing in me, both to see what i'm doing "wrong" and to hopefully help me sort him. then in the next post he unhurt and unhealed his votes and flaked out.

i didn't think much of the post at the time, but 865 made me think that i'm giving a free pass where i maybe should not be doing so.

pedit: ton of posts, gimme a bit

beeboy gets hyperwagoned on this page, Tanner doesn't vote citing that he doesn't know the VC and doesn't want to lolhammer. Kind of sketchy but probably fine?

Spoiler: The good part of the mixed: Early Day 2 paranoia progression

I think Tanner's entire day makes sense when you're given this as his opening post:

first things first, we only fight from here on out, right? now that the insta-loss after day 4 cannot happen, there's no reason to not go for genocide?

also, i'm still decently worried about how yesterday went down. i skimmed the VC's, beeboy was leading wagon for a while, and towards the end of the game, the only "counterwagons" with 2 votes were (1) the chara wagon, which han an RVS vote on it, and (2) me/catboi voting lavender for a little bit. (if there were more correct me, i'm doing this from memory.) thinking if there was bussing involved. (also remembering that event and seeing catboi dead makes me uneasy...)

@hectic, you disgreed with my "stalled wagon on beeboy means he's town" thing (and obviously you were right >_>), can we chat about this? do you think a bus is possible/likely?.

This basically sets the tone for the next week of Tanner's play. Day 1, he is noticeably worried about how little pushback the beeboy wagon is getting. Over the course of Night 1, he checks the counterwagons, sees little, and the gears immediately start turning about a possible bus.

There are a bunch of posts discussing this that I could link (1086, 1089), but I think it's the Puppy reaction that is worthwhile.

also i had a thought that elements was bussed and that scum was gonna try to get themselves spared off of towncred, and for puppy to enter the game going for spares... yay paranoia.

i'm pretty sure 4 fights are optimal in every single scenario now. day 2 is definitely a fight day to either win or get Not Chara flipped. since the "if mafia is spared, they win if both of them survive Day 5" clause in 1-3 is now pointless, sparing on day 3/4 is just setting off those executes for later... while losing 2 public cops. i can crunch the numbers later if anyone is that interested in it, but i'm pretty sure fighting is the way.

This wouldn't really make sense though, your argument would be that 4 fights is obviously objectively correct, also scum bussed for credit so they could play better in an inferior position. Why would scum bus at all?

I think it's more realistic that scum didn't bus, or at least didn't push the wagon until it was too late. In that case, sparing is a decent move because we'd save two townreads and still get a copcheck for it. 2 + 1 > > 2

yes, i realized it wouldn't make sense because "wait a minute, fighting is clearly optimal, nobody is gonna enter day 2 asking for spares!"

...except then you did exactly that.

i am 99.99% sure that genocide is the superior option as i was thinking about it earlier but now it's past midnight and my math brain is closed.

here's my spicy take of the night.

HURT: puppy

I think sparing is slightly better here. If your argument is "scum bussed someone who wasn't chara for slightly better odds to push sparing later". That's just silly.

my argument is "elements/beeboy was a wagon with very little to no resistance or counters, and he flipped scum, which means that either scum is the low-influence PoE'd players, or elements was turbobussed with scum holding a lot of clout right now, and in both of those cases sparing is very counterproductive".

If you're Tanner, sitting and thinking that someone

has

to have bussed and be heading into Day 2 looking to use that credit, and you immediately see Puppy push for sparing...this seems really plausible to me to think they might be scum. I think the crucial part I was missing here that pushes this into the +town zone for me is that I didn't realize that Tanner was already worrying about scum using D1 clout for D2/D3 before anyone said anything about sparing.

I think this progression: "Day 1 wagon was sketchy, two conf town on counter -> Had to be a bus, right? -> Someone's a deepwolf, how are they going to capitalize on it? -> Spares, and Puppy is pushing spares -> Puppy scum?" much more plausible/natural than something that works in kind of the opposite direction "Puppy pushing for spares -> Scum? -> Makes sense if he bussed"

This goes double when Tanner was already growing a bit more cautious around Puppy as Day 1 went on.

So that's the good+the good part of the mixed.

Now I do have some more questions that kind of cropped up.

First, Tanner:

There is one problem to me with your entire paranoia progression. You seem to have skimmed the ISOs of people off-wagon, and found redtea iffy. You've always been down to fight Lavender. At one point, you say this:

either (1) scum is actually all in the lower-influence "weaker" players and we have this game on lock, or (2) some mighty bus was happening yesterday... (2) scares me.

This is interesting to me, because you've kind of investigated only

parts

of either here. What I mean by this is you haven't investigated the possibility of deepscum too much despite being worried about it. Why are you not more worried about me, Chara, and Morning Tweet for example? How much ISO reviewing have you done of the stronger town slots?**

Second,

I'm a bit confused as to some of your more recent progressions in that it seems like you've gone into paranoid OMGUS mode repeatedly against slots that you're worried are pushing you. One of these that sticks out to me is your progression on redtea/Krazy seems to go haywire after Krazy replaces in and starts pushing you-you've backed off of the vote but haven't really indicated a change in his status, either. You give the reason to swap to Tayl0r based off of her questionable vote/push on you, but I'm really curious as to how you've been thinking about Krazy since his replace-in. I'm also curious for some updated thoughts on Lavender given your current stance on Tayl0r.

Third,

who do you have as more solid reads right now and why?

Spoiler: **Good progression I remembered too late footnote

This reminded me of the other important progression that stuck out to me+fits completely into Tanner's POV: How he worried about how legitimate/good faith Hectic's push on him was all throughout the 1100s/1200s, but especially in 1216. Again, deepwolf fears combined with Tanner's paranoia of getting pushed as a misfight make this pretty believable. I feel like I had more substantial comments here 6/7 hours ago but alas. Will probably get another chance to read them very soon.

[Prism]

That's definitely a lot more abbreviated, just in that I don't think it's that helpful for me to go down the line and say "this post about Puppy/Taylor matches this one..." ad infinitum. What I'm getting at here is that his reads, progressions, throughout the first 3/4ths of the game at least made complete sense and I don't see any glaring flaws.

I will say that Krazy's post had some points that were worth considering. My first question is very similar to Krazy's concerns about the fightpool, and the second tackles some of what Krazy was getting at with the "but I'm still in this lower section" part.

I do find some of the paranoia overwrought between Hectic, Krazy, and Puppy (1440 is a bit much, as is 1463) but that's about it.

[Prism]

Alright, time to revisit my "Hectic as Chara" theory.

[Prism]

Hm. Start of the game this seems plausible, weakens later in the day as he pushes the Ele/beeboy slot harder in the 900s. Definitely hardtrolled the team if he's Chara. His Day 2 start is a lot more complete+forceful than I remember, too. Probably not?

Eyes have started to glaze over. Probably time to stop for the day. Note to self: Finish single important task before lunch when the topic is fresh+energy immediately present.

[Prism]

however they feel too logical to be the nervous paranoid trainwreck known as TownTisi (<3)

Day 1 I think this is lacking (outside of wagon paranoia) but if you look at Day 2 Tanner is basically 24/7 paranoid of anyone who even slightly positions/downgrades a read on him, ex. 1540 he's worried about Puppy only calling him a townlean lol

[Prism]

Taylor, from what I could tell earlier your reads are something like:

Hard town
=====
Hectic
Prism
Morning Tweet
Pooky

Unsure
======
Puppy
Lavender
Krazy

Scum/scumleans
======
Chara
Tanner

I'm curious as to what you think about the push on Tanner and who you think is singularly most likely to flip scum atm

[Prism]

Okay, I think we're getting somewhere-when you say Chara "has to be town here", what do you mean?

[Prism]

It...sounds like they don't have to be town?

I'm trying to make sense of this. They were pretty town. They were Chara, not very gamesolvey. I guess they are kind of gamesolvey, not Chara (role) anymore. Eh, they might still be scum though. They can't be scum, they've townie most of the game.

I...I can't understand.

[Prism]

I don't want to know how many hours I've spent rereading at this point

Tayl0r/Hectic is my answer but it still doesn't feel right and I have work to do there STILL when my eyes aren't glazed over, then again we do have two people making it as hard as possible to

reach

the answer but jesus christ

don't even get me started if i'm putting too much stock in my ability to read redtea or if it's just lavender because i will yeet this computer into outer space

[Prism]

if you want me to make it worse for you i realized he'd die right after i townread him

the good news is you have insurance in the sense that if i'm scum 1. why the hell would i do this to myself as chara 2. i have to somehow justify being alive+not cleared by cop investigation in the 50/50 as regular mafia

[Prism]

to be clear, as great as this game is, 2 is not an invitation to troll me by refusing to nightkill me, thank you for your consideration

[Prism]

why did you choose to hammer beeboy instead of seeing if Tanner would actually do the hammer?

I had actually been waiting to trollhammer all day, I didn't even think about Tanner doing it tbh

[Prism]

idk about all day actually but at some point I got it in my brain and I was READY

was super sad it didn't work on cat+Isis locked the thread pretty fast

[Prism]

In the meantime I just finished 100%ing Super Mario Sunshine in like, 3 days. One more game that I never finished in my childhood down

if only this one were so easy

[Prism]

first,

my thoughts when the game is going *really well* (i.e., got a scumflip on day one in a setup where scum should really make sure that doesn't happen) is that we're either townstomping this game or we're not. the plan is then to assume the former but keep the latter in mind. which means flip the "lower" slot or two, if they're scum, great (and in this case we win, yay), if they're not, something has gone

very

wrong.

i've done nothing to review the stronger town slots, because i'm currently under the assumption that this game is going well and that everything is fine. if i get proven wrong, that's the time when i need to start reflecting. also because i know "stronger" town slots aren't getting flipped anyway and i don't have the willpower to review slots that aren't getting flipped today anyway and the game might be over soon too.

I did a really poor job phrasing this question. I think where I'm getting a bit confused here is that in the early Day 2 you

were

a lot more worried about deepscum, you were a lot more skeptical of Puppy esp. after he pushed the spare, and you came into Day 2 at least very cautious about them being on-wagon even if you chose to look off for your ISO skims.

So what I'm finding strange here is that it looks like you were worried about deepwolf, saw signs of Puppy deepwolf, and investigated Puppy, but

didn't

really investigate anybody else. I think following your first lead and not really expanding it to others is fine, but I'm wondering how/why you chose not to question your read on others if the mindset I'm ascribing to you is accurate.

I don't really have much interest in meta diving you, way too much experience/have the fundamentals of the game down, meaning it's not at all likely to be simple. Was really just wanting to see that you could back up your claim that these scenarios-Datisi is normally so town-have happened before. Ald looks fine, pops was mafia but presumably still found it plausible, Luca said that on page 3 (??? lmao) but I guess you had talked a lot already. Either way I'm glad to see there is precedent.

[Prism]

ie. like, the Puppy push in general+fear of the deepwolf spare suggests to me that you weren't in that "This game is going great/this is fine" mindset

[Prism]

Hectic, I'm really confused about your votes in general right now. Your vote on Tanner 2231 was wild, acknowledging that it felt wrong and bad but with the weird reasoning that it was more likely Chara than Krazy (I've been over how confused I was by the described Tanner-Chara reasoning to begin with, but the "over Krazy" part also seems unjustified?)

You liked the points by Krazy on Tanner, but looking at Tanner you seemed to have doubts (gut?).

Tanner is your biggest lead but still you'll unvote them (?) because you don't scumlean them and they're 5th on your list anyway.

Now it looks like you're investigating Puppy but I'm just confused as to how this progression/duality on Tanner even exists

[Prism]

Tanner also made a "split second Prism-chara paranoia" point similar to Pooky and I'm so confused

I realize these flashes of thoughts aren't supposed to be rational but like, I could have ended this day 3 times over and instead I've studied the game so much I probably know more about half the game's reads and how they evolved over time than they do

as opposed to letting the day end and doing literally anything else in my life besides throwing myself at a 90 page brick wall for hours a day

this makes sense as regular mafia but as chara ????

[Prism]

welcome back, friend, you have been sorely missed and i'm looking forward to seeing where you're at upon catchup

[Prism]

I'm tired of living life spamming League of Legends in my computer chair,

surrounded by an ocean of McDonald's bags,

so I really want to prepare

it's good to see you put yourself in my shoes like that

the new spicy nuggets are okay but the mcdouble/mcchicken are great for cheap, raw calorie counting

[Prism]

Anyway, where I'm at at the moment is that I'm ready to end the day and flip, I'm tired of combing over random slots like yours, Morning's, and Tanner's. Hypothetically I could do Pooky's but

no

.

I owe Tayl0r/Hectic one more readthrough each but after that I just want to call it a day and shoot my shot.

I'm basically exactly where I was in my readslist in 2196 with some minor revisions:

Very town: Puppy, Chara, Krazy
Likely town: Lavender (votes), Pooky (basically only works with 2 deepwolves, maybe Krazy?)
Next on deck: Tanner, Morning
Scum: Taylor, Hectic

I think a more accurate one might be:

Town: Puppy/Chara/Krazy
Probably town: Morning
IN CASE OF EMERGENCY BREAK GLASS: Pooky
Next on deck but still pretty town: Lavender/Tanner
Scum: Taylor/Hectic

Pooky's early game is shaky but the amount of patience and restraint he's shown this day as scum, combined with the amount of reading/thoughtful questions he's posed, would be extremely impressive

[Prism]

Basically any of the town minus Krazy flipping Chara is a sign to just throw that list out entirely, btw

[Prism]

A big part of me declaring the Taylor/Hectic ISOs my final projects for the day btw are due to failing motivation, I've been at this for like a week now.

I also just got a drawing table in the mail after waiting for it for over a week so I'm playing with that

I guess I'm trying to say sorry but I'm procrastinating and I know it, and it's easier for me to react to things immediately than to sit down and do 2 hour deep dives.

[Prism]

I mean probably after I eat

but right now I'm reminding myself of how terrible I am at drawing, it's beautiful

[Prism]

McDonald's fries used to be heavenly before they changed the formula so long ago

ok boomer

[Prism]

There are more cons to me for Krazy because I TR'd redtea, but that's pretty subjective. Extra pro might also be Suji flaking.

For Tayl0r, beeboy distancing would be after giving up not before

We're suddenly hearing a lot more about Hectic from multiple people so I'm kind of curious to see people put what they find suspicious in their own words.

[Prism]

So I've worked through the Hectic ISO and have some thoughts, but I'm really curious to wait and see what Chara thinks. What are you up to?

[Prism]

Hectic, I am really curious about your Puppy/Ele there though and would love for you to revisit it.

[Prism]

I lied and have one more project but I'm pretty cognizant of the deadline

[Prism]

Where are you at atm, Krazy?

[Prism]

As far as voting goes, I mean

[Prism]

What are you thinking about, Morning?

[Prism]

FWIW I'm pretty sure I'm going on Taylor too, I'm more just bothered in that I know Hectic/Tayl0r isn't right.

I'm wrong on one of Hectic/Taylor. I just don't know which. If Tayl0r is scum, it might not matter.

Of all the town, Chara is the only one that isn't extremely town for their votes and progressions, but more for their extremely genuine reactions to events. Their reaction to me was super good, and I put them at locktown for it...but once again every single player in this game is town.

Which leaves me again wondering if they're the Bodhi to my Johnny Utah

[Prism]

I think Taylor is better than flipping either of Lavender/Krazy, which is why they're my top pick.

My last project is reviewing Chara one more time. I was really hoping to dialogue with them real-time tonight but alas.

[Prism]

do you think theres definitely scum in me and hectic?

I would be surprised if there wasn't. The teams in my head are like Hectic/Chara, Tayl0r/Chara, and then a jumble of "I am so disgustingly wrong on this game that I can never play on this account again, I am a complete disgrace" random pairings like Pooky+? or Tanner+? or something that I have not exactly spent time considering

[Prism]

What made you change your mind on Tayl0r/Hectic being together, Prism?

It's a lot of small things put together.

First is the Tayl0r-Hectic progression in the 600/700s. She tackles Hectic with me but flips pretty randomly at some point. This was +pairing for me, but looking at the events that transpired between the two...I can kind of see it. Hectic posted a lot more content in that time, though I do wonder what Taylor was a fan of since she didn't like the Lavender read iirc. 1726 Taylor explains that it's liking his insistence on the spares, which lines up with how she was thinking about Pooky.

Thinking more about this too, the backlash against the spares is a real disconnect between scum partners. Tayl0r should be a lot more open to sparing if Hectic-Chara is going for it, for example, while Hectic shouldn't be pushing spares at all if it's Taylor-Chara.

Others are just small posts like 1004 and 1205. There's both of them openly saying that their only possible partner is each other.

Another is the fact that Hectic didn't take his time on my initial team accusation and just rolled with it. Even now Hectic is still defending her but he's not taking his time at all: He's very fast to react, isn't really worried, and is putting in as much effort into third party solving as ever.

Both of these players are more motivated than ever, simultaneously accepting that their most likely partners are each other, and even though the votes are a bit desperate I wouldn't at all say they've been very demoralized.

[Prism]

I individually scumread a lot about Hectic. His spare pushes look 10x worse in hindsight, and I actually do believe now that some of it is willfully blind/deceptive. He thought that the EV for sparing was 27% but

pushed for it anyway

. He made his way around the town giving out townreads like candy to anyone that showed up-me, Morning, catboi, Lavender-but avoided scumreads other than the one on Elements. He pushed for the spare but made no attempt to sell us on who he said it should be, because he had no desire to get that spare.

I individually scumread some things about Taylor. Her mech talk dismissals and some of the progressions

are

weird and random. I hate that they can't explain any of their Tanner/Chara preferences, for example.

But do I think they're scum together? No. No I don't. Hectic is setting up Taylor for a misfight if he's Chara, while Taylor is just rolling with my theory and letting Hectic protect her if she's scum.

[Prism]

Why do you feel so strongly that Hectic is town, Taylor?

[Prism]

I am behind on the times. Damn.

My memory has finally failed me, I'll check it out again.

[Prism]

Oh okay this is like last 30 minutes while I've been thinking more about Chara, okay this makes sense how I missed this, thank you for pointing it out

[Prism]

ok but assume for a moment that im town. what does that mean? who are the scum then? if i cant be scum with hectic then the only solve is me and chara. but if im town, then whats the solve?

Right now my hunch is that it would be Hectic as Chara and Chara as the regular mafia, but my hunches this game have led me extremely wrong in my first two team ideas.

I really need to work down Chara's ISO and revisit Hectic's interactions with Chara to sanity check this though

[Prism]

Okay, so I'm with you on the Hectic scumtheory, especially if you're town. Can you explain why you townread them so strongly before?

[Prism]

I have a rule of thumb I use in chat mafia. It's not to toneread players who specialize in tone.

Chara's tone is exceptional. I don't just mean them sucking up to me and deflecting questions with compliments. I mean constantly interacting with several people in the game and reacting to events. Skimming a few scumgames made their ability to fabricate nuance and genuine reactions, and

fast

, very clear. Regardless of whether they're town this game, this approach needs to go in the trash.

But the question is: Can I remove all of that entirely, and just simple yes/no evaluate them on this question instead: are their reads and the stances they've taken town? I already know there's one progression in general (Late Day 1 Taylor) that make me suspect no.

[Prism]

Can you elaborate on what you mean by that? What other parts of the game does it cast light on for you?

[Prism]

Tanner getting pushed here by town is a godsend from scum's POV. Their life gets significantly harder the longer he lives because he's noticeably a very strong player. This is 100% worth capitalizing on.

I've whiteknighted your slot so hard that it wasn't happening, and Taylor is dead in the water from Hectic's POV. No need to even push her himself.

[Prism]

To be clear what I mean: Hectic had spent like a week shoving your (Krazy's) slot virtually every way imaginable-the meta on Sujimichi to confbias with more than genuinely investigate was really,

really

desperate imo-to no avail. Scumpushing redtea, scumpushing Sujimichi, outright declaring that if not Suji who else, that so many people make sense as scum with that slot (??? untrue), and also he's not even motivated to search until they flip so just vote them.

None of them happened. The votes weren't there.

[Prism]

Interactions with Hectic on Chara's side are again exceptional. Not that I expected any different.

[Prism]

I took it as a joke just because it was obviously not going to happen and the wagon was pretty recent. He said something about matching Isis's flavor but I didn't really look back into it.

Looking at the interactions from Hectic's side, they're okay.

Taylor/Chara again?

[Prism]

Game is way too hard for me jesus christ.

[Prism]

you're open to moving off?

? I'm currently on Taylor.

[Prism]

His V/LA has only just come up, iirc. It's impressive that we've managed to get as much out of him as we have.

[Prism]

poor chara town is going to wake up to me once again looking at them like this for no reason

[Prism]

maybe i just have trust issues

i'm willing to go to counseling over it

AFTER THE GAME

p-edit: for real, like who made a small kid pose like this?

[Prism]

also no you're krazy hue

[Prism]

tweet

i want you to look me in the eye

did we really come all this way just to flip lavender?

[Prism]

Why not? Reading the start I think it's a lot, lot more plausible than I thought it was.

[Prism]

The only thing that doesn't really line up to Hectic as Chara to me is 782.

The first push is plausible to me, and the second could very easily be just trying to get Ele back into the swing of things more than a real bus. The ones after that (like the 900s?) are kind of the point of no return, I think.

[Prism]

to be clear, I'm describing sets of posts by Hectic there where the third set (782) is the only one that doesn't really fit Hectic-Chara imo

[Prism]

If you go back over Hectic's early game, he's repeatedly pushing a spare, he's working his way townreading everyone for very little reason (buddying) and he doesn't even try to convince anyone of the spare he claimed to have had in mind. This day he's been trying to get out of ASAP for eons.

[Prism]

I've been over why I hate 324 a million times, sorry but I don't find it convincing whatsoever and it was exactly why I tunneled Hectic that entire day. That read got outed under considerable pressure from me, right after he claimed to have no reads, and there was a giant flaw in it that Hectic both didn't bring up, readily dismissed, and seemed to only believe his own line more and more over time with no Elements feedback other than the readslist/lost comment.

[Prism]

My pick for the day is still Taylor. I think that flip either wins us the game or gives us a ton of info between it+the Chara flip. Lavender basically nets us...me town if she flips town. Who cares?

I'd rather flip Lavender in the 1/7 and let scum nightkill and narrow the pool.

[Prism]

also I forgot Hectic's backrooms meta spec on Pooky was a major crock of shit

maybe I should just flip this slot but WHO THE HELL IS THE DUDE SCUM WITH AT THIS POINT LIKE WHAT

[Prism]

tl;dr he suspected your friendly tone shift was scum because he thought you were scum in backrooms, and changed his mind in 640

I say it's a crock of shit because he didn't just cite the difference from the meta he was already familiar with, which doesn't rely on referencing ongoing games, and because it's wild to think seeing such a drastic change means you're scum in both

he pushed you for lack of reads and came up with something after the fact

[Prism]

pedit: It's not really about who he's pushing. It's more that I don't believe Hectic would have came up with that reason to scumread Elements right then as mafia. Why does he lay the groundworks for pivoting to Elements there

I guess it could be an anti-spew if Hectic is Not Chara.

Also like, sure he's voting for you but he's giving actually decent sounding reasoning to suspect Elements. I can't even find where he explains why he voted you. Maybe that's telling in its own right

??? he has been getting actively grilled for multiple pages by me, I just assert that his read on pooky is way too safe/objective and I'm keeping my vote

the real question is if he had this read why does it take me doing this to get him to bring it up

second he completely and willfully ignores that elements-town had just wrongfully shoved him 4x in a row

[Prism]

the entire bit about "oh elements is pushing to spare me" was also so bad, like elements was not making a town case on him at all, it's the start of the game, and he's noticeably memeing around but hectic somehow keeps going "Why does Elements push to spare me when he doesn't have a read on me?"

[Prism]

at this point I'm literally just typing exactly what I was back on like, page 30/40 though so I mean

[Prism]

I think it's likely that I'm wrong on at least one of Taylor/Hectic, like I said before, but I will go to my grave hating everything about Hectic's Day 1 in the year 2074

[Prism]

HURT: Isis

I imagine I'll stay on Taylor but I don't want to deprive myself of the opportunity to go on Hectic when I wake up and recenter, in case we wagon her while I'm passed out or something

[Prism]

Chara I am sorry in advance for the monstrosity you are about to catch up on

but also I'm not

[Prism]

Hectic-do you mind talking about your read on player Chara/how your thinking has progressed on them this game?

[Prism]

My motivation here is pretty shot

I'm hardtunneled on Hectic individually but there's a really good chance it's wrong.

I'm down to just go Taylor and call it a day.

[Prism]

Like I know if I reread Hectic I am going to the exact same conclusion I have the other 500 times

I just reread Taylor last night, even though her play improved in the last 24 hours she's still really likely

I can reread Chara for the millionth time but I already know what bothers me most is their progression on Taylor

Maybe I could reread Morning and search for some weird pairings there but why? Why do this?

I don't even need to reread Pooky to know that he's stuck in IN CASE OF EMERGENCY BREAK GLASS territory where he's made virtually no mistakes day 2 but was weak day 1

[Prism]

so can we all call it a day and vote taylor on 3? i'll count us off, my vote isn't there right now so we can all do it together

[Prism]

Lavender is literally just spectating this game

imo we use the 1/7 to flip them tomorrow and take the 2/8 today

[Prism]

like lavender does not play mafia, lavender likes to be in the room while other people play mafia

they placed one vote in RVS, then immediately unvoted it and have not voted since 100 pages later

[Prism]

prism's final readlist

town: puppy/krazy/tanner in that order
super town day 2 but depending on who the other is: pooky
??? pretty town but haven't read in eons: morning
spectating the game: lavender
probably scum by default: chara
scum: taylor, hectic

[Prism]

tanner belongs in between morning/pooky actually but i have read him more recently

[Prism]

my lavender towncase

an essay by prism

1. that wagon though
2. this person literally has not voted day 2 despite multiple wagons and being in danger of scum autoloss

[Prism]

2 is worth elaboration, which is that they might be chara hammersitting, but do any of us think lavender is hovering over the game just waiting for their chance here? or have they literally just been AFK for 100 pages?

[Prism]

chara absolutely does not deserve to be at the top, their progression on taylor is extremely questionable and their reads on me/hectic/tanner one notch below

beeboy revote+its followup was also sketchy given surrounding statements even if 95% of it lines up

[Prism]

chara's tone/reactions are insanely good but skimming scumgames will quickly tell you they excel at this and we should find another avenue to read them

[Prism]

questionable progression by chara on tayl0r/beeboy is this btw

tl;dr of background posts is in reaction to tayl0r's catboi flop, chara goes: tayl0r +town-> actually this isn't good -> eh tayl0r +scum

882 says tayl0r is the closest thing they have to a scumread, ie. it either doesn't have any or it's tayl0r
906 activity votes beeboy (note: chara forgot but it was already voting beeboy)
948 justifies the vote with the readability line+not getting town feelings from ele/beeboy

i definitely asked them about this before, i'll see if i can fish up the answer from one of our ISOs

[Prism]

I've also found their progression on me/catboi a little off, their progression on Hectic moreso but all of these are much more nebulous+somewhat plausible and I don't want to trace through again, it's someone else's job if Chara is in the 50/50 later

[Prism]

chara hard bussed elements which u don't even seem to consider

not really true if you look at their ISO

aggressive at start, forgets where their vote is and goes around elsewhere, eventually activity votes beeboy and doesn't press it at all later. the +town part would be not swapping to hectic w/ me or forgetting their vote.

[Prism]

I mean I've already tackled the me/Hectic progression like twice each and don't want to start over, I can dig through my own ISO if you want

also I think you missed a post of mine elaborating on what i meant about taylor/beeboy

[Prism]

like i've accepted that at least one person has played incredibly well and is out of my reach here because hectic/tayl0r, while possible, doesn't quite seem right atm. if it's tayl0r/chara or tayl0r/hectic or hectic/chara go me but i would absolutely not be surprised to see something else.

[Prism]

not really clear what you mean by WIFOMing when I'm literally saying two different things: 1) I'm too tired to go back over things I've already done like twice each, with the bonus that I actually did the beeboy one again anyway without you even asking 2) I don't think I have the team right and my reads are offbase

(1) isn't WIFOM, and even if you think I'm lying like ??? at what point in this game have I been unable to back up something ever, even forgetting that I've already done these before
(2) is angling maybe but WIFOM isn't accurate? also have literally been saying this for like 3 days now

[Prism]

Do you mean I'm like, buying into WIFOM too much in the form of team guesses, or that I myself am WIFOMing? based off the "i'll hold you to this" i've assumed the latter

[Prism]

I mean if that's your point then yes, I agree, I'm very ready to burn Taylor and call it a day

[Prism]

Oh I never put my vote back

Okay this makes more sense now

HURT: Taylor

Taylor->Hectic->Lavender is basically my preference order here

[Prism]

If Hectic flips Chara overnight I get a moral victory and nothing else. Maybe I can hang it on my wall, "morally won Chara's Folly"

[Prism]

oh it is NOT

i want to VOTE and either WIN or GET NIGHTKILLED AND BE FREED OF THESE SHACKLES THAT BIND ME

i have had a ton of fun this week, don't get me wrong, but i want to live life again. i used to work out daily. i used to call my friends. lemme OUT

[Prism]

like when i say i threw in the towel i mean at least one person beat me and no amount of me reading this game w/o more flips is going to change that

shoot my shot and accept defeat+nightkill or come back locked and loaded with flip info

P-Edit: Puppy not realizing I also just want to end the day and move on

[Prism]

atm I've had to rely more on bodyweight exercises at park, which SUCK

I miss weights a lot

and nope I peaked at bodyweight, at least for 3x5

[Prism]

i mean we can votecount pooky but i don't think we can get hectic

taylor, you, me, maybe tanner, maybe chara, maybe krazy?

actually this might have the votes i didn't think it did

p-edit: interesting okay

[Prism]

...

do i trust my individual scumread that i logically think is wrong and yolo?

we can make this happen oh god oh fuck

[Prism]

you're welcome bb

[Prism]

YOU WANTED CATS LEVEL OF DESPERATION

BUT YOU WEREN'T READY FOR MAXIMUM OVERDRIVE

[Prism]

It is 100% based on my read on redtea. I don't see the meta being wrong. It's something I thought about a lot, and just the thought of "Maybe I should doubt this" has repeatedly brought me back to the question "Then what

do

I have faith in this game?" It makes me think that I have to have faith in

something

this game, I can't just keep saying "oh god oh fuck what if they're just playing really well" on everything. My redtea read is the one thing that's kept me centered this game and if I'm going to bet on myself and my ability to read accurately, this is the one that's worth doing so.

I don't think that redtea comes out that confident as scum. I don't think they go aggressive on catboi like that if they decided to buddy. I think everything they did this game fits extremely well with how they played+evolved over the course of SIN. And yeah, that's the one thing in the game I am hardbetting on.

[Prism]

I disagree that Hectic is a better gamesolve flip than Taylor. Taylor flipping town still puts us in a pretty good position. We know there's deepwolves about.

Hectic flipping town is disastrous and leaves Tayl0r still unresolved along with literally every other lurker slot. Almost every hardtown is also on that except MT so there's not even a good deepwolf indicator.

[Prism]

We know there's deepwolves about.

Well together with flipping Lavender Day 3 [referring to what happens after we flip Taylor if she's town]

[Prism]

Another PSA; I also could've hammered Lav when she was at L-1 if I were ChAra, rather than extend the day and continue to spew reads and associations with almost everyone in the playerlist.

??? she literally was at L-1 for like 10 minutes

[Prism]

and deal

first day of day 3 though if i'm alive i'm busting out a bottle of wine at the realization i have to do all of this all over again because i hate myself

[Prism]

I disagree that Hectic is a better gamesolve flip than Taylor. Taylor flipping town still puts us in a pretty good position. We know there's deepwolves about.

Hectic flipping town is disastrous and leaves Tayl0r still unresolved along with literally every other lurker slot. Almost every hardtown is also on that except MT so there's not even a good deepwolf indicator.

I don't see what useful information tayl0r flipping town tells us about the game

??? that slot is literally one of the hardest to solve on its own+you immediately know that bussing happened day 1

[Prism]

ok it turns out we don't agree on as much as i thought. i don't know whether to shout or cry

this is in the event tayl0r flips town+lavender flips town day 3, because lavender is hands down the best day 3 vote.

use the 1/7 fight rather than risk them in the 50/50, or worse yet, being given the hammer in the 50/50 by scum's choice of the cop investigation

[Prism]

I do want Tayl0r. I think if Hectic flips Chara overnight we're still in a fine position.

Vote for who you think is scum at the end of the day, though. I'm not the town dictator.

[Prism]

Like let me be clear: I have not solved this game. Even if I'm right and it's 2/3 of Taylor/Hectic/Chara, I still got absolutely thrashed. And there's a very good chance it's not 2 out of 3.

but my vote today is Tayl0r

[Prism]

Krazy's lines actually really bother me here in that learning more from Hectic-flip is complete hogwash, like I want to hear that argument fleshed out because that is the single biggest reason I refuse to vote the dude

[Prism]

like claiming that we learn more from a hectic flip than taylor flip, seeing me justify why the opposite is true, then going "well here's why i think taylor is town" is completely shifting the subject

[Prism]

I don't understand what this question is asking

How does a Hectic townflip help solve the game more than a Taylor townflip?

Please explain this thought process for how flipping Hectic gives us more info

[Prism]

like as far as I can tell what we learn from Hectic townflip is:

1) Morning isn't scum
2) I'm a tunneling moron
3) It's either the lurkers. Or maybe it's one of the 5 people on him. Still need to vote Tayl0r to resolve the slot

Tayl0r town flip tells us:

1) There's almost certainly a deepwolf (FYPOV there has to be-the lurkers are you or Lavender!)
2) Hectic-Chara, which is the worst case scenario in this situation, still gives us great associatives even if we just lost a chance at winning

P-edit: ????????? if me/pooky are the only ones reevaluating the game on tayl0r-townflip something is wrong, drastic oversimplification

[Prism]

I will go you over Lavender because flipping Lavender is literally the worst of both worlds to me. I think they're town and we learn essentially nothing.

They're the Day 3 fight and should be 100% of the time.

[Prism]

puppy

we just votecounted

if i'm onboard we can kill hectic really quickly, and it's been made clear he's my second pick

krazy gambiting and pushing the slot still would be insanity

also hectic literally hardshoved the Krazy slot in 10 different ways to convince us to move on with the day