jammer, if you read the site/my sig at the time, you would have known I was forced out of that game. So I'm going with a
Mafia 98 - Apennine Mafia (Game Over)
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SensFan Fortuna Ex Deus
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Anyone who actually continues this "Sens must be scum since he should have been killed over Cow" logic, don't expect me to even read your posts.
jammer, if you read the site/my sig at the time, you would have known I was forced out of that game. So I'm going with aVote" jammer(11:04:10 PM) senspizzaline: That's actually my bold prediction for the year
(11:04:19 PM) senspizzaline: Miami finishes 2nd in the AFCE.
(11:05:35 PM) jhawk01b: my bold prediction for the year is that whoever wins the NFC West will have a winning record-
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VP Baltar he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Other than an ongoing with him, I don't know that much about him. I would place him as mediocre based on that, but I'd have to meta to form a more solid opinion.camn wrote:VP? what is your opinion of Hascow as a player?
And what would you propose we do on D1? This game is going to be filled with a lot of WIFOM to find scum, as there is no role confirmation.jammer wrote:With 4 scum, you're trying to find out what one of them would kill. Include a wifom-kill argument, and we got little if anything to find mafia on. It sounds pretty random to me.
I tend to agree with this. There is the WIFOM of randomizing it, but if the scum were to do that, they might have killed someone who was even less known, such as jammer.Mastin wrote:Because, why would hascow be killed? There has to be a reason. And that reason means that the person who killed hascow probably knew him.
The kill would be most likely to come from someone who knows hascow. Furthermore, I believe that a senior player on the scum team would have more sway and would help direct the kill toward someone like hascow, as opposed to someone a newer person might be more inclined to kill based on overall site rep alone.
ah, damn...gotta go for now. Catching up with the rest later.-
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SensFan Fortuna Ex Deus
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Seriously, guys.
SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT THE KILL.
Its something the Scum have 100% control over, and I'm betting most/all of the Scum are now trying to use that to also control the Day phase.(11:04:10 PM) senspizzaline: That's actually my bold prediction for the year
(11:04:19 PM) senspizzaline: Miami finishes 2nd in the AFCE.
(11:05:35 PM) jhawk01b: my bold prediction for the year is that whoever wins the NFC West will have a winning record-
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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GIEFF Internet Superstar
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Mastin, are you still happy with your vote for BM?
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Sens, I take it your vote for jammer is semi-random OMGUS, and has little to do with my or Kairyuu's reasons for voting him. Is that correct?
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Zachrulez:
Although the math states that 2 mafia is the most balanced, the math assumes random lynches, and does not take into account the fact that finding scum gets exponentially easier as more are lynched. I do not think that 4 scum is so unreasonable that it cannot be the case, although if there are 4, we are in for a tough game. I actually think that 4 scum is more likely than 2, as a 2-scum setup would be way too swingy, and Yaw may not have been familiar with that particular bit of theory.Zachrulez wrote:As is Gieff, due to his attacks on Jammer over stating 4 scum as fact being some kind of "scum slip." I don't subscribe heavily into that as a strong scumtell. In fact given that 3 scum tends to make a lot more sense in this kind of a setup, I think it's more likely that Gieff is scum attacking Jammer's "slip."
Can you give your reasoning as to why "3 scum tends to make a lot more sense in this type of setup?"
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Does anybody have a link to a similarly-sized all-vanilla game, or can somebody more experienced with vanilla setups (or Yaw's preferences/knowledge of vanilla setups) shed some light? If 4 scum is extremely unlikely, then jammer's scumminess drops dramatically. However, the fact that two players (alexhans and jammer) decided 4 scum was the most likely scenario makes me think a 4-scum setup is not as unlikely as zachrulez and Cephrir believe it to be.
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jammer,
How many scum do you think there are in this game? Why?-
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SensFan Fortuna Ex Deus
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My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.GIEFF wrote:Sens, I take it your vote for jammer is semi-random OMGUS, and has little to do with my or Kairyuu's reasons for voting him. Is that correct?(11:04:10 PM) senspizzaline: That's actually my bold prediction for the year
(11:04:19 PM) senspizzaline: Miami finishes 2nd in the AFCE.
(11:05:35 PM) jhawk01b: my bold prediction for the year is that whoever wins the NFC West will have a winning record-
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... ountainous
The example game provided had 2 scum for a 12 player game for a 2:10 ratio.
That's a pretty balanced setup for a game with no power roles.
4:12 just seems to favor the scum way too much without any power roles to compensate.
3:13 gets pretty close to the ratio of the mountainous game in the example on that wiki page. (It does look to favor scum a little bit more though, but not significantly.)
2:14 powers the town significantly more than the 2:10 in the example.
When you take those numbers into account, 3 scum makes the most sense.-
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 31&start=0
For mafia discussion on the percentages. It's an old thread, but it seems generally agreed upon that 25% scum in a game calls for some kind of power roles to balance it.-
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Benmage
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GIEFF Internet Superstar
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Thanks, Zachrulez. I read some more through the wiki and mafia discussion, and the standard 2 scum vs. 10 townies setup is a DAY start (note that this post is by Sensfan, oddly enough), so for comparison purposes, a 4-scum setup here would be 4-scum vs. 11 townies. Adding 2 scum and 1 townie to a balanced setup is obviously unbalancing, so 4 scum is just too unlikely for jammer's assumption to be a slip, even if a 4-scum setup assured jammer as scum 100% of the time.
unvote jammer
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SensFan wrote:
My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.GIEFF wrote:Sens, I take it your vote for jammer is semi-random OMGUS, and has little to do with my or Kairyuu's reasons for voting him. Is that correct?Whydo you think he is more likely than the rest of us to be scum?
And another question - you obviously know that the 2/10 setup is a day start, and that 4 scum is probably very unlikely. Why didn't you contribute to that discussion when I asked people with more experience to shed some light on it? Is it a coincidence that the person your silence incriminated (in my mind at least) is the same person you voted for without providing any reasoning?-
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jammer Goon
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Looking for scum-slips and tells. And wifom based on that, not on what died, and wifom based on that.VP Baltar wrote:And what would you propose we do on D1? This game is going to be filled with a lot of WIFOM to find scum, as there is no role confirmation.
Lynching based on who died, are you considering that?
Based on what died. Who seems a good candidate doing that according to you? And who not.
As I said 2 is best by math. 4 is to different from that. 2 or 3.GIEFF wrote: jammer,
How many scum do you think there are in this game? Why?
My scummyness drops loads if 4 scum is unreasonable?
My "scummyness" is based on the number of scum that I said...
So if Alex said 6 or 1, and I believed that. You wouldn't even discuss this matter?
It sounds, if I said 3 you would yell towards other players to vote me, the obv. scum.GIEFF wrote:.... even if a 4-scum setup assured jammer as scum 100% of the time.
Now you realise your reason to vote me is really weak. While if I said 3 scum, you would have tried to push a lynch on me for a number. I don't like that idea.
Vote: GIEFF
Is there a reasoning behind it, or is it just gut.SensFan wrote:GIEFF wrote:My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.-
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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Jammer, your scumminess drops because you went along so easily with an assertion from Alexhans that there are 4 scum, and it's becoming quite apparent that 3 scum is likely based on how the distribution of roles would have to be to get the closest to balancing this game.
If anything I think it's an indication that you are town, because you went along with a game setup that likely isn't in play, nor did you quickly challenge Alexhans' assertion of 4 scum as a snap reflex. (Because if you were scum you would know he's wrong.)
I feel reasonably safe in calling you as town.-
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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Debonair Danny DiPietro Jack of All Trades
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I'm in the Sens/Zach camp that NK speculation offers no substantial benefit and several potential harms.
Cephrir expects three or four scum, says we should assume four scum because of that possibility. And then concludes by stating there probably aren't four scum. While these statements are completely contradictory they certainly don't look good to me.Cephrir wrote:I came into this expecting 3 or 4 scum, and at this point could still see either. IMO we should just assume there are 4 because it's a possibility, even if it's less likely especially given the existence of the vanilla 2 vs. 10 setup.
...
I don't think jammer slipped up, especially given that there probably aren't 4 scum.
Unvote; Vote: Cephrir-
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GIEFF Internet Superstar
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You misquoted, jammer. Sensfan said this, not me.Sensfan wrote:My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.
If this game has 4 scum, I think you are very likely to be one of them, jammer. This has not changed. What did change was my opinion of the likelihood of there actually being 4 scum. Does that make sense?
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Mastin, are you still happy with your vote for BM? (I know I already asked this, but wanted to make sure it didn't slip through the cracks)-
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Yaw Yawesome
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Vote Count:
jammer (2): Kairyuu, SensFan
GIEFF (2): Zachrulez, jammer
VP Baltar (1): camn
Battle Mage (1): Mastin
broomhead (1): alexhans
Cephrir (1): Debonair Danny DiPietro
Not Voting: Battle Mage, Cephrir, VP Baltar, broomhead, SpyreX, Benmage, GIEFF
8 to lynch
Benmage's vote not counted, because I don't know who he's trying to vote for.Success breeds suspicion-
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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Unvote:
Still not liking any of the Jammer votes. Gieff's doesn't stand out anymore though, and his position seems reasonable.
Post 6
and
Post 10
These posts establish an attempt by Mastin to both clear himself based on the nightkill and gather scum suspects based on the nightkill.
Like Sensfan pointed out not too far back in the game, what's up with all this nightkill speculation?
Control of the game based on the nightkill seems to be Mastin's motive, and I'm happy to put a vote on him. (I'm clear! But these people are scummy because they know Has!)
Vote: Mastin-
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camn soundtracker
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I played a game with GIEFF once.
We were scum together.
He was brilliant as scum.
We should probably lynch him before endgame... regardless of anything that may happen between then and now.
(how is THAT for saying something scummy?!!?)"if you weren't trying to be so unnecessarily mysterious all the time we wouldn't have these misunderstandings" - Yosarian2-
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camn soundtracker
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jammer Goon
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You pull conclusions far to soon for my opinion. If the number of scums I called was 3 you where ready to vote me off without any though at all.GIEFF wrote:If this game has 4 scum, I think you are very likely to be one of them, jammer. This has not changed. What did change was my opinion of the likelihood of there actually being 4 scum. Does that make sense?
(and yes, sorry I messed up some quote tags)
@Zach, I'm surprised that makes you feel save in calling me town.
Would you have voted me if I stated that there where 3 mafia?
@camn, why ask specificly VP's opinion about hascow, earlier?
@Kairyuu, What do you think about the opposing of the meta N0 kill from SensFan. While he is suspected becouse of this by you and Mastin.(top-suspect)-
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camn soundtracker
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When I saw Hascow dead, I wondered about it.jammer wrote: @camn, why ask specificly VP's opinion about hascow, earlier?
I looked at his recent games. Especially an ongoing one. That is all I should say about that.
VP I have played with a couple times, and I respect him.
I think that he is the kind of player that, AS SCUM, given a night 0, he would choose to eliminate someone that hethoughtmight be a detriment to the gameplay as a whole. Like a lurker, or someone who might replace out... or someone he thought was "mediocre".
He has that kind of integrity.
Now... I have unvoted him, but I still suspect him. His response is simply filed away in the camn-memory-system for later.
i agree we can't get too crazy on outguessing the scum.. especially N0 scumkills..... so I table VP for now."if you weren't trying to be so unnecessarily mysterious all the time we wouldn't have these misunderstandings" - Yosarian2-
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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Battle Mage Jester
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QFAT. But it is Mastin who appears to be leading the charge, and i'm not sure that's his style.Zachrulez wrote:
QFTSensFan wrote:Seriously, guys.
SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT THE KILL.
Its something the Scum have 100% control over, and I'm betting most/all of the Scum are now trying to use that to also control the Day phase.
Vote: Ben
Clearly a wannabe mage.
BMShow2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%-
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GIEFF Internet Superstar
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camn soundtracker
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