Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[Almost50]

I could be a town who's pretending to be a Wolf pretending to be Mafia, of that helps anything. Or just Mafia. Or Werewolf being a Mafia.

That's a bit of a stretch. You know well that would be throwing off the town, as people will try to develop associations between your slot and other slots. It also means the WWs are saving you for a late-into-the-game mislynch which is guaranteed not to be opposed by the Mafia either, and I don't think the town would mind because

they simply don't know

.

[Auro]

@A50, my primary argument against a no-lynch is that the NK is not going to be random, but I'll craft a more detailed rebuttal later.

[mcqueen]

still here will catchup later

y’all really lynched my rvs vote with me still on it lol

[Almost50]

@A50, my primary argument against a no-lynch is that the NK is not going to be random, but I'll craft a more detailed rebuttal later.

Your argument fails because it assumes WWs are shooting Bambi, which IS to our benefit anyway.
Now even if you assume they're not shooting Bambi, the chances of us regaining majority are 28.6% still..

guaranteed

! It's still better than a 50% chance of "guaranteed

NO MAJORITY

"

But feel free to vote Bambi if you think it better to lynch Mafia (you are opposed to the idea that he would claim Mafia as either Town or WW, right?)

[Auro]

No, the opposite. I think WWs *won't* shoot Bambi - why would they? From their perspective, his lynch is guaranteed at some point anyway unless we follow a "lynch wolves first" policy. I think I'm more likely to be NK'd than most other slots here, and if you're town you should probably share that fear too. So the chances of each person being NK'd aren't equal - they're weighted, which should factor into your statistics.

[rosterfoster]

But it’s in the WW’s interests to shoot mafia, no? I haven’t looked at the numbers but since Maf win when there’s equal numbers wolves have to kill 2 maf in some way (lynch or NK). Since we’re more interested in a wolf (taking your view that Bambi is maf) to lynch, the wolves would really want to kill mafia, otherwise they’re heading towards a loss.

[Auro]

Whether Bambi is fakeclaiming as WW/VT or not is screwing with my head and any thought processes I have right now. >.>

[Almost50]

WWs are still very much in a bad position IMHO. They know that any 1 on 1 vs Mafia with no Town alive = Mafia win. They know a day start with 1-1-1 is also an instant Mafia win. Perhaps you didn't read the setup well, so you missed that?

[BuJaber]

I don't know about all the numbers and I still have to think about the no lynch option (instinctively it feels too early for that now), but I do agree with the WW/not WW readlist thing.

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

roster you do realize that brass said the reason he was mad was because we didnt do rvs right

[BuJaber]

If brass is telling the truth we'd be doing everyone a service by lynching him. He wants to replace out but feels unable to morally. It's merciful.

If he isn't playing the game at all and faking rage because he's scum then lynching him lynches scum.

There's really only one choice

[rosterfoster]

roster you do realize that brass said the reason he was mad was because we didnt do rvs right

yeah, I mean he's right? AtE might be the wrong word for it, IDK. It's the anger.

If brass is telling the truth we'd be doing everyone a service by lynching him. He wants to replace out but feels unable to morally. It's merciful.

If he isn't playing the game at all and faking rage because he's scum then lynching him lynches scum.

There's really only one choice

Meh, if he wanted to replace out he could (btw Brass, I think we have some level of goodness going on now). You'd hope a replacee would form their own opinion.

We shouldn't be lynching brass today.

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

which wouldn’t that contradict why you townread him because he’s not angry for he reasons you think he is?
let me read brass’s thing again

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

well I guess he technically was mad at everyone except Clem which includes us

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

hey roster i actually have a question: how exactly did we jack up the game? i know like 8 pages or something of us arguing with bambi was annoying, but how is it rippling.

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

If brass is telling the truth we'd be doing everyone a service by lynching him. He wants to replace out but feels unable to morally. It's merciful.

If he isn't playing the game at all and faking rage because he's scum then lynching him lynches scum.

There's really only one choice

also i hate this post

[brassherald]

Cool. VOTE: No Lynch

[Auro]

Please don't hammer NL yet - I'm still against it, and have more reasons, I'll post shortly.

[Auro]

@A50 correct me if I'm wrong.

A simplification of your idea is that we enter the same gamestate as today with one less Mafia or Villa - with a 3/8 chance of the former and 5/8 latter. While you say the objective is to regain a villa majority, I don't think that goal is particularly fruitful - in this context, it's just us vs Mafia and I think it's better focusing *only* on Wolves now. A villa majority won't mean much as long as Wolves have their NK, and a 3/8 chance + a guaranteed non-WW lynch frankly doesn't seem worth it. The increased (Villa+Mafia) numbers are good and focusing otherwise only makes it easier for Wolves, who are more dangerous.

Plus, Bambi being okay with the lynch means we're not going to hit Mafia. We're not going to hit the seer either because we'd get a claim otherwise - that gives us a 1/3 chance of hitting WW today.

If I haven't articulated this properly, please do tell me.

[Auro]

And now, the case against McQueen:

1. PoE from the D1 wagon
   : {mcqueen, GuiltyLion, Auro, "Antihero", Vedith, BuJaber, Bambi Jay}
   GuiltyLion flipped town. I know myself to be town. Strong TR on BuJaber (which I'll confirm after a meta-check). Weak TRs on the hydra and Vedith. Jay is claimed Mafia. Leaves McQueen.
   
2. Activity levels
   : Look at how much he's posted here, then go to his profile posts page and note the differences in activity levels WRT other games. He's actively avoiding this thread - scummy for a few reasons.
   
3. Lack of scumhunting
   : Even in the content he *has* posted, there's zero scumhunting, it's useless content.

In addition, GuiltyLion also scumread him as I pointed out earlier, strengthening my confidence on a lynch there.

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

we're probably gonna no lynch once people are done talking

[Auro]

A no-lynch only favors wolves! A NL means one less Mafia/Villa; there's no point entering the same gamestate with one less Maf/Villa.

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

yeah i actually didnt go to high school math yet so uh

[Auro]

Let's put aside highschool math.

Situation A: 5 villa, 2 Mafia, 2 Werewolves.
Situation B: 5 villa, 3 Mafia, 1 Werewolf.

Both situations have Villa majority. Do you think they're equal?

[brassherald]

You assume the lynch is a WW. I have no confidence that the player list will actually find a WW here