Mafia 98 - Apennine Mafia (Game Over)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm in the Sens/Zach camp that NK speculation offers no substantial benefit and several potential harms.

I came into this expecting 3 or 4 scum, and at this point could still see either. IMO we should just assume there are 4 because it's a possibility, even if it's less likely especially given the existence of the vanilla 2 vs. 10 setup.

...

I don't think jammer slipped up, especially given that there probably aren't 4 scum.

Cephrir expects three or four scum, says we should assume four scum because of that possibility. And then concludes by stating there probably aren't four scum. While these statements are completely contradictory they certainly don't look good to me.

Unvote; Vote: Cephrir

[GIEFF]

My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.

You misquoted, jammer. Sensfan said this, not me.

If this game has 4 scum, I think you are very likely to be one of them, jammer. This has not changed. What did change was my opinion of the likelihood of there actually being 4 scum. Does that make sense?

----

Mastin, are you still happy with your vote for BM? (I know I already asked this, but wanted to make sure it didn't slip through the cracks)

[Yaw]

Vote Count:

jammer (2): Kairyuu, SensFan
GIEFF (2): Zachrulez, jammer
VP Baltar (1): camn
Battle Mage (1): Mastin
broomhead (1): alexhans
Cephrir (1): Debonair Danny DiPietro

Not Voting: Battle Mage, Cephrir, VP Baltar, broomhead, SpyreX, Benmage, GIEFF

8 to lynch

Benmage's vote not counted, because I don't know who he's trying to vote for.

[Zachrulez]

Unvote:

Still not liking any of the Jammer votes. Gieff's doesn't stand out anymore though, and his position seems reasonable.

Post 6

and

Post 10

These posts establish an attempt by Mastin to both clear himself based on the nightkill and gather scum suspects based on the nightkill.

Like Sensfan pointed out not too far back in the game, what's up with all this nightkill speculation?

Control of the game based on the nightkill seems to be Mastin's motive, and I'm happy to put a vote on him. (I'm clear! But these people are scummy because they know Has!)

Vote: Mastin

[camn]

I played a game with GIEFF once.
We were scum together.

He was brilliant as scum.

We should probably lynch him before endgame... regardless of anything that may happen between then and now.

(how is THAT for saying something scummy?!!?)

[camn]

in fact...

unvote
Vote :GIEFF

Look at me .. 3rd vote on the wagon!
oops.. nope. 2nd vote. Darn.

[jammer]

If this game has 4 scum, I think you are very likely to be one of them, jammer. This has not changed. What did change was my opinion of the likelihood of there actually being 4 scum. Does that make sense?

You pull conclusions far to soon for my opinion. If the number of scums I called was 3 you where ready to vote me off without any though at all.
(and yes, sorry I messed up some quote tags)

@Zach, I'm surprised that makes you feel save in calling me town.
Would you have voted me if I stated that there where 3 mafia?

@camn, why ask specificly VP's opinion about hascow, earlier?

@Kairyuu, What do you think about the opposing of the meta N0 kill from SensFan. While he is suspected becouse of this by you and Mastin.(top-suspect)

[camn]

@camn, why ask specificly VP's opinion about hascow, earlier?

When I saw Hascow dead, I wondered about it.
I looked at his recent games. Especially an ongoing one. That is all I should say about that.

VP I have played with a couple times, and I respect him.
I think that he is the kind of player that, AS SCUM, given a night 0, he would choose to eliminate someone that he

thought

might be a detriment to the gameplay as a whole. Like a lurker, or someone who might replace out... or someone he thought was "mediocre".
He has that kind of integrity.

Now... I have unvoted him, but I still suspect him. His response is simply filed away in the camn-memory-system for later.
i agree we can't get too crazy on outguessing the scum.. especially N0 scumkills..... so I table VP for now.

[Zachrulez]

@Zach, I'm surprised that makes you feel save in calling me town.
Would you have voted me if I stated that there where 3 mafia?

Eh, I don't really subscribe to the theory that it's a strong scum slip, so no.

[Battle Mage]

Seriously, guys.

SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT THE KILL.

Its something the Scum have 100% control over, and I'm betting most/all of the Scum are now trying to use that to also control the Day phase.

QFT

QFAT. But it is Mastin who appears to be leading the charge, and i'm not sure that's his style.

Vote: Ben

Clearly a wannabe mage.

BM

[GIEFF]

camn, that is a LOT of assumptions on which to base a vote (which you said was NOT random):

1. VP Baltar would not kill the player he views to be the most pro-town.
2. VP Baltar does not view hascow as particularly pro-town.
3. VP Baltar, if scum, would have been the one to choose the scum-kill.

And you are still confident enough in these assumptions to leave the door open to return back to Baltar later. Is there something else going on, or did I accurately sum up your reasoning?

Vote Mastin

[camn]

Beats a Random vote, no?

And yes, I think those 3 conditions are not unreasonable... but replace "pro-town" with "pro-fun-game".

[Battle Mage]

Interesting choice. Has wouldn't be my choice with players I know;

I will look up which players have played with hasdgfas, as they are most likely scum.

When skimming, i didnt spot that Mastin came right out of the gate with this mindset. That is genuinely scummy (Albeit from a gutshot OMGUS perspective).

I'm not sure why you make the assumption that people who have played with Hasdgfas are more likely to kill him than people that haven't. You must rate his play pretty highly if you think that anyone that knew him would have killed him instantly.

I think if i'd chosen the kill, i'd have probably picked you. Simply because, as scum, i cba to trawl through a massive thread, when i dont need to find scum. Ofc, this is all a pointless convo, because there are multiple scum, and it's probable that the decision wasn't unanimous.

That said, whoever is scum, i do appreciate not being killed. Was looking forward to an old school game like this

'Til then, I'll do what I always do in the RVS:

why do you need to emphasise that you always do it? haha

Unvote, Vote: Mastin

BM

[Cephrir]

I don't get what's wrong with discussing the NK as long as we aren't ridiculously serious about it. I would never lynch based on something like that and I don't think anyone else will either, so why not talk about it? And it did a fine job getting this game off to a quick start.

@DDD: Fair enough, it's contradictory. But does that really matter?

[Battle Mage]

I've played with Hascow before and he was not a very active scum player... at least in that game. Maybe it was because the town had 80 % of lynchable material (Empking, Zwets, Dejkha, Wall-e and Hewitt). Anyway... If I had to kill... knowing there were no protections whatsoever... I would've killed... sensfan? Mastin? someone random that I don't know? Probably I wouldn't have had a voice in a scumteam....

Anyway... 16 playing... 25 % means 4 scum. 31.25 % is 5 scum... too much...
also... the n0 kill was unstoppable.. so we should count 15 playing... 33.33 % is unlikely

What I assume:
15 mislynch 14 L-8 (scum is 50 % of a lynching waggon)
14 kill 13
13 mislynch 12 L-7 (scum is 57 % of a lynching waggon)
12 kill 11
11 mislynch 10 L-6 (scum is 66.7 % of a lynching waggon)
10 kill 9
9 mislynch 8 L-5 (scum is 80 % of a lynching waggon)

we can basically mislynch 4 times (MAX). This is going to be one LONG game...



Players:
Battle Mage

SensFan (Is supposed to be good)
alexhans

GIEFF
Cephrir

VP Baltar
Debonair Danny DiPietro
Kairyuu
camn

broomhead
SpyreX

Zachrulez
Benmage
Mastin

jammer

Bolded I've either played with, or know by reputation.

this is funny...
I'm tempted to vote VP Baltar because he is always scum...
I'm tempted to vote Mastin for self voting...
I'm tempted to vote Kai to OMGUS...
I'm tempted to vote camn because she is voting her fianceé

vote: alexhans

Obvcult. Speedlynch GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO!

*Alexhans recruits Kai...

New postPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 1:02 am (Yaw posted the first post of the game)
I'm researching who to vote...

well...

Vote broomhead

because he is probably hiding among unknown players.

Mastin posted again while I was writing this... and DDD too...

Smells....town. But i dont get the fixation with namedropping players you know. It ain't cool, and it ain't productive. Whoever did the italicising and underlining thing at least actually achieved something.

BM

[camn]

You must rate his play pretty highly if you think that anyone that knew him would have killed him instantly.

Not necessarily. It could be a revenge kill. It could be someone that HASCOW is particularly good at reading....

It could be a lot of things.

[Battle Mage]

With this having no power roles the basic idea is going to be a lobotomization from the scum.

Meaning only those who have played with hasdgfas could've suggested the kill, hence, narrows down our suspects. It most likely would be an experienced player, like BM.

Hence, BM is scum.
And, no, we're not waiting 'til Day Three to make sure.

Lol, your first assertion doesn't make sense. Please clarify. If you can convince me, i might string myself up.

So, who would think of hasgafads as a key lobotomy point?

Anyone who played with him before and liked his play.

If you've done your research, you'll have a good indication that the latter point doesn't apply to me. I'm a lil disappointed.

but truth is, I probably would've killed Alex or an EM player. Maybe Kai instead.

truth is? Oh dear, it's starting again!

BM

[Yaw]

Vote Count:

Mastin (3): Zachrulez, GIEFF, Battle Mage
jammer (2): Kairyuu, SensFan
GIEFF (2): jammer, camn
Battle Mage (1): Mastin
broomhead (1): alexhans
Cephrir (1): Debonair Danny DiPietro


Not Voting: Cephrir, VP Baltar, broomhead, SpyreX, Benmage

8 to lynch

[Battle Mage]

You must rate his play pretty highly if you think that anyone that knew him would have killed him instantly.

Not necessarily. It could be a revenge kill. It could be someone that HASCOW is particularly good at reading....

It could be a lot of things.

"could" isnt a particularly useful word in this instance. If you want to make a case based solely on Kill WIFOM, i'm saying you should at least research all the contingencies properly.

Do YOU think anyone fits yours?

Why not let Mastin defend himself?

BM

[camn]

Your statement was logically flawed.

And yes, VP fits my theory on the nightkill.
But I don't think it is enough for a lynch.

Wheras policy-lynching GIEFF for being too awesome... that might be doable...

[Battle Mage]

Look for who would kill the cow.

^^this.

I don't think Hascow was killed for lobotomy. . . no offense intended, but there are some pretty heavy hitters on the playerlist.
Unless they are ALL scum, I think hascow was picked for a different reason.

VP? what is your opinion of Hascow as a player?

Haha, you're including urself as a heavy hitter, amirite? xD

Mastin, are you still happy with your vote for BM?

why wouldnt he be? Mastin loves random voting.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Your statement was logically flawed.

Good spot! /sarcasm

In all seriousness, whilst my statement obviously was not entirely accurate, it was quite clearly an accurate representation of the stance Mastin has assumed. I still dont really see why you appear to be trying to bail him out here...

If he wants to make a case on WIFOM grounds, let him research it properly.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Unvote:

Still not liking any of the Jammer votes. Gieff's doesn't stand out anymore though, and his position seems reasonable.

Post 6

and

Post 10

These posts establish an attempt by Mastin to both clear himself based on the nightkill and gather scum suspects based on the nightkill.

Like Sensfan pointed out not too far back in the game, what's up with all this nightkill speculation?

Control of the game based on the nightkill seems to be Mastin's motive, and I'm happy to put a vote on him. (I'm clear! But these people are scummy because they know Has!)

Vote: Mastin

do you know Has?

Vote

BM

self vote? lol

BM

[Benmage]

Alrighty then, here’s my catchup post from whats been posted thus far. It’s done chronologically so if the start of my posts feelings shift by the end, so be it.

However, the tinfoil says that Mastin as scum could go the brazen I wouldn't do this as scum because it would be awesome.

It is an interesting attempt Mastin could be employing here as scum. Especially as he so justly declared how he would have acted. But if he really was scum, wouldn’t acting the way one would expect you to act be illogical while acting in contrast to the predictable action be most rational.

Im glad... but people should still vote eventually... For a reason... but vote. We can not afford lurkers (active or not) or inactivity...

QFT, beautiful. I despise all lurkers.

With this having no power roles the basic idea is going to be a lobotomization from the scum.

Meaning only those who have played with hasdgfas could've suggested the kill, hence, narrows down our suspects. It most likely would be an experienced player, like BM.

Hence, BM is scum.
And, no, we're not waiting 'til Day Three to make sure.

Besides that, why is the kill of hascow so special?

Because, why would hascow be killed? There has to be a reason. And that reason means that the person who killed hascow probably knew him.

More common scum kills would be people like Sensfan, Kai, myself, maybe Alex, etc.

Not hascow.

Only becouse some didn't play with her and wouldn't kill becouse of that?

Him. Him.
And, yes. They wouldn't kill hascow because of that.

So aren’t all roads point towards Battle Mage?

Jammer stated there are 4 scum as a fact

Wrong, he said “believable truth”, twisting of words is scummy.

I think the second explanation is far likelier, and hence, my vote. Unless jammer has another townie-based reason to so readily assume 4 scum.

Yeah I do. In most games of 9 (newbie setups) we have a 7-2 ratio. In many mini normals we have 12 with a 9-3 ratio. From the newbie setup to the mini normal we gained 3 players, 2 town and 1 scum. Now in this game we have no powerroles and a free NK, N0 for scum. So even though we started with 16 players we really only get to play with 15. That’s a 3 person increase from mini normals. Using the same town-scum ratio we can assume an addition 2 townies and 1 scum. That 16th player is probably town to be used as slaughter ….So assuming 4 scum in this game seems most logical. I could understand only 3 scum since we have no powerroles, but 5 seems way to many.

Could you say what sounds like a reasenable amount, if that is incorrect.

But the reasonableness of the assumption is just a secondary point. Where you messed up, jammer, is in revealing that you KNOW how many scum there are - you are not guessing. Scum know how many scum there are, and town don't. This is simple.

Geeze, I don’t think he did. He used Alex’s interpretation anyways and you’re getting hung up on semantics where you misquote to begin with, but he states it as believable truth.
Interpret this:
Fact: There are 3 scum in this game.
Fact: There are 4 scum in this game.
Fact: There are 5 scum in this game.

I said it is reasonable. I did not proceed as if it was fact, as you did. I know you understand the difference.

He said believable, stop misquoting. I don’t see the biggest difference between ‘reasonable’ and ‘believable’.

I don't think jammer slipped up, especially given that there probably aren't 4 scum.

3 does seem to be making more sense.

@Post 45, Zach…no need to quote the whole thing, but awesome and well done.

Can you give your reasoning as to why "3 scum tends to make a lot more sense in this type of setup?"

Didn’t he state this, or others at least. The answer seems so glaringly obvious why ask such a stupid question. Didn’t you even provide the mathematics behind it suggesting 3 scum with no powerroles would be most balanced…
Well looks like post 52 answers it anyways.

Jammer, your scumminess drops because you went along so easily with an assertion from Alexhans that there are 4 scum, and it's becoming quite apparent that 3 scum is likely based on how the distribution of roles would have to be to get the closest to balancing this game.

QFT.

Benmage's vote not counted, because I don't know who he's trying to vote for.

It was a joke, because of your other post specifically stating not to do it. I’m sorry. Also “vote” wasn’t even bolded, that was to make it not count.

@Zach, I'm surprised that makes you feel save in calling me town.
Would you have voted me if I stated that there where 3 mafia?

Seriously he could still be scum saying 4 when there may even be 2. Who knows, writing him off as town for agreeing with anothers scum numbers seems scummy.

Vote: Ben

Clearly a wannabe mage.

Oh this game is going to be fun.

Wheras policy-lynching GIEFF for being too awesome... that might be doable...

*Stare*

Vote Mastin

[Battle Mage]

2 scum in a 16 player game, is ridiculous.

BM