Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:11 pm

Post by JaeReed »

In post 622, BlackVoid wrote:You said in 195 that Osuka seemed different to how he played in a scumgame of his you were reading. Can you explain what this difference is? I don't understand the basis behind your Osuka townread in the first place. Can you talk about what you mean when you say that he "isn't trying to direct you in any particular way?"
Not...really? Sorry I know that isn't the ideal response but the game in question is here:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=72479
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:13 pm

Post by JaeReed »

In post 622, BlackVoid wrote:I don't understand why Paul is a scumread based on the no kill. Shooting the BP is the optimal move for scum because it doesn't change the number of mislynches they need to win, and by taking away the bulletproof they have the freedom to get rid of a conf-town later on if they feel the need to. Shooting elsewhere would be a risk since scum might be shooting a potential mislynch and get POE'd more easily if the confirmed town makes it too far into the game. So, I'd expect anyone to take that shot. I also think it's weird that you were townreading Paul all along until skitter replaced in and started attacking him, and then there's a "vote: Paul, w/e" tone of resignation and then a weird justification for the vote later. Can you go over how your Paul read developed and why the resigned tone?

Two other problems with your nightkill logic: Firstly, Osuka was widely townread as well so it could just as well apply to him as Paul. Secondly, there are two scum so their nightkill would be determined by what benefits both of them so just picking out Paul on the basis of "widely townread player making a no-info kill" seems weird at this point.
We're either in a situation with a JK or Tracker given the BP claim.
The other PR and mafia know which setup we're in.

Ask yourself why mafia didn't shoot for the other PR.
Like I was thinking on the kill all fucking day before finally voting Paul over it. Pretty sure I made a comment about it and how I needed to think on it.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:22 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

The other PR didn't claim so you're assuming that mafia know who the other PR is. If they take that gamble and end up shooting a VT, that makes the game much harder for them than just playing it safe and removing the bulletproof from the 1-shot BP. I saw your comment about the kill and your point could be semi-valid if there was a lone scum remaining. But there are two scum so I'm not sure why you are assuming that one of them has to be townread and that it is Paul. Why couldn't Madtatters or DoctorPepper or Aphix make that kill for instance.

On re-read, I noticed that MadTatters quickhammered so you probably didn't have that much time between when MWAP was at L-1 and hammer but why not make a stronger effort to stall the wagon while you figure stuff out or talk to Paul who you were townreading and who was pushing the MWAP wagon the hardest?

Is your read reversal on DoctorPepper based solely on him voting Aphix after Aphix said that Paul scumslipped?
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:23 pm

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VOTE COUNT 2 . 27
  • aphix
    ---------- 3 ( DoctorPepper, NotTheRealPaul, Madtatters )
    L- 2

    NotTheRealPaul
    - 2 ( Skitter30, aphix )
    L- 3

    JaeReed
    -------- 1 ( osuka )
    L- 4

    Madtatters
    ----- 1 ( JaeReed )
    L- 4





    Not Voting
    ----- 1 ( BlackVoid )
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-31 19:41:35)
FOS COUNT 2 . 27
  • NotTheRealPaul
    - 1 ( Skitter30 )







    Not FoS'ing
    ---- 7 ( JaeReed, Madtatters, osuka, aphix, BlackVoid )
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-31 19:41:35)
GTKAS
| here.
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:27 pm

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One more thing, you are essentially voting Madtatters because you don't want him in lylo. How is that so different than lynching MWAP because he was a destructive to the game and him being alive would be more detrimental to town than just lynching him? Both are essentially "get rid of a distraction moving forward" but you were calling BS on the MWAP lynch while advocating for the Madtatters lynch.

Is it normal for you to not have strong scumreads?
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:32 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

If you can, give me your best shot at explaining the Osuka townread because that's the one read I think would be most helpful for getting a read on both you and him.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:37 pm

Post by JaeReed »

In post 627, BlackVoid wrote:The other PR didn't claim so you're assuming that mafia know who the other PR is. If they take that gamble and end up shooting a VT, that makes the game much harder for them than just playing it safe and removing the bulletproof from the 1-shot BP. I saw your comment about the kill and your point could be semi-valid if there was a lone scum remaining. But there are two scum so I'm not sure why you are assuming that one of them has to be townread and that it is Paul. Why couldn't Madtatters or DoctorPepper or Aphix make that kill for instance.

On re-read, I noticed that MadTatters quickhammered so you probably didn't have that much time between when MWAP was at L-1 and hammer but why not make a stronger effort to stall the wagon while you figure stuff out or talk to Paul who you were townreading and who was pushing the MWAP wagon the hardest?

Is your read reversal on DoctorPepper based solely on him voting Aphix after Aphix said that Paul scumslipped?
That's just it!!! The other PR hadn't claimed! So the kill was going to be made either aiming for the other PR or BY SOMEONE SURE THEY WOULDN'T BE A SUSPECT AND FELT SAFE MAKING A NO INFO BP SHOT.
Madtatters or aphix probably wouldn't have made that kill because they'd be afraid of being tracked/aggressively jked. They weren't in especially townie looking slots.
DP
could
have, but it's still a pretty ballsy move over PR hunting the other PR and trying to kill them. Especially after I was on him for the vote on MWAP.

Paul was pushing the wagon the hardest... why the fuck would he listen to me? People wanted their policy lynch. Is it shit? Absolutely. But when people want blood that hard what the fuck do you expect me to do about it except for try to point out who I think is being an opportunistic fuck about it? I do have a life, you know. -.-

Pretty much, yeah.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:40 pm

Post by JaeReed »

In post 629, BlackVoid wrote:One more thing, you are essentially voting Madtatters because you don't want him in lylo. How is that so different than lynching MWAP because he was a destructive to the game and him being alive would be more detrimental to town than just lynching him? Both are essentially "get rid of a distraction moving forward" but you were calling BS on the MWAP lynch while advocating for the Madtatters lynch.

Is it normal for you to not have strong scumreads?
Madtatters isn't a "get rid of a distraction moving forward" vote.
It's a "this could be mafia but more importantly is very likely to vote confirmed town in lylo" vote.
I consider those two different.

Eh, it depends on the game.
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:44 pm

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In post 630, BlackVoid wrote:If you can, give me your best shot at explaining the Osuka townread because that's the one read I think would be most helpful for getting a read on both you and him.
It's hard to explain a read I'm not sure on anymore though.
Like
At the time I thought osuka would be trying to direct the flow of the game more as scum following his recent victory? idunno
If I dont' feel as strongly about a read anymore I tend to forget those feelings around it so I can't really explain it anymore.
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:45 pm

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Can you link to an example game where you had no strong scumreads?

I still don't get why DoctorPepper's vote on Aphix was so town that it erased all your previous concerns with him being an "opportunistic fuck" about the MWAP lynch. Aphix said Paul scumslipped. Osuka called it bullshit. You agreed and called it even more bullshit. Then DoctorPepper voted Aphix. It was a ridiculously safe vote.
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:57 pm

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Urgh I'll try but I actually can barely remember my games atm.

Because ime ppl who push on scumslips that aren't actually slips are usually scum. < this with the caveat that some town are prone to push on "scumslips" too (MathBlade would be one of those ppl off the top of my head)
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:14 pm

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Ehhhnnn the most memorable "down to poe" game I remember is like, back when I was a newb so I don't think that's one you want since I assume more recent would be of more help.
Best I can really give you is a game where I checked out after initially starting with a strong push and then needed help getting back into the game til I got a strong tr, and in exchange got strong enough srs to push them. viewtopic.php?f=50&t=68000
Uhhh I have a game where I kinda sucked and just sorta tried to keep my trs from killing each other iirc. viewtopic.php?f=50&t=69290
And a game where I just sheeped D1 basically and picked up after that due to role related reasons. viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68870

Don't think any of those will actually be much help but eh. Maybe the last one will be.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:15 pm

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In post 634, BlackVoid wrote:I still don't get why DoctorPepper's vote on Aphix was so town that it erased all your previous concerns with him being an "opportunistic fuck" about the MWAP lynch. Aphix said Paul scumslipped. Osuka called it bullshit. You agreed and called it even more bullshit. Then DoctorPepper voted Aphix. It was a ridiculously safe vote.
To clarify on this - it wasn't "so town" so much as I didn't think aphix and dp would be scum together there.
But eh you're right in that it was a safe vote. I'd be willing to lynch DP.
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:18 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Okay but why didn't you already go back to your DoctorPepper suspicion once you concluded that Aphix was most likely town (as opposed to the Madtatter's vote which you didn't seem to have much conviction in)?

I'll skim through those games after I get through everyone else's ISOs here. Thanks for the links.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:26 pm

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Because I forgot, tbh. I was meaning to go back and reread the lynch there but I've just had...better things to do. Work, more fun games than this, time with my gf (which got cut down on from what I was used to because of work picking up).
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:16 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

DoctorPepper:


I have conflicting feelings here. I don't find the reasoning behind either of his major pushes compelling. The MWAP vote was basically a policy-lynch for claiming scum. The Aphix vote was purely because Aphix accused Paul of scumslipping (something that Osuka and JaeReed pushed before DoctorPepper did).

But I liked how strongly he was pushing Aphix in . He comes across like he really buys into his argument.

Why policy-lynch someone that claimed scum? If you really thought it was a scumclaim, I'd expect something like "well, he gave up and claimed scum so let's lynch him." The policy-lynch phrasing seems like you either knew he was town or didn't really expect him to flip scum there and comes across as not taking responsibility for the flip. Immediately griping about the lynch in right after voting feels weird.

I don't understand your townreads either. JaeReed is still a townread because he proposed a BP-claim strategy? MWAP was town because his posts give off a "vibe of a newb-town player?" What does that mean? You said in that it could be scum acting cautious but you doubt it. Why? Also, how come you were townreading MWAP for being cautious and now townreading MadTatters for not being cautious? A little more elaboration on the distinctions would be nice.
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:40 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

NotTheRealPaul:


I've been trying to delay this read partly because I wanted to see Paul engage with me and then read through all of skitters' points more closely but time's running out. I'm actually not as sure about him being town as I was when I replaced in.

My reasons for initially townreading him when I was spectating the game mostly come down to his high activity level D1 and his frustration upon being pressured D2. I felt like he was still trying to accomplish an Aphix lynch despite getting a ton of pressure from Skitter.

Upon reading more closely, I actually agree with Skitter that his reaction to MWAP was somewhat weird.

@Paul, can you explain why you were so convinced on MWAP being scum that you took his scumclaim literally? In the game we played together, I said I was scum and you doubted yourself even after that. That means you know that town can claim scum sarcastically. But here, you seemed absolutely certain with no question that MWAP should be lynched and everyone's next post should be "vote: MWAP."

I also found his reaction to me replacing in and townreading him to be a bit underwhelming. I'm not sure what I expected but he just told me to lynch Aphix and after I invited him to sell me on it and gave reasons why Aphix is town, that read just fell by the wayside and dismissed as gut. I suppose I expected him to engage my points and continue pushing his read because he seemed so sure before.

With that said, I thought him wanting to replace out was indicative of town. That seems like a dick move for scum to pull upon being caught and Paul comes across more as a laid back, chill dude so I have a hard time imagining him doing that as scum. But I can see town getting this frustrated.

@Skitter, can you link me to the posts that best illustrate your Paul scumread? I want to engage but there are so many of them I don't know where to begin. I will say that I don't get the impression that he's discrediting you. You said town-Paul is paranoid of you and sheeps you despite that but neither of those points apply here given you are conf-town and your biggest scumread is him.

So, he's probably town but I have a few reservations about that. Would like more engagement from Paul before I can get a better read.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:03 am

Post by NotTheRealPaul »

Sorry RL being a bitch dont have much time for MS.

BV i'll try to get to u in the evening.
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:01 am

Post by BlackVoid »

I'm here for the next 8 hours. Then I won't be here for the following 7 and will be here after that. That's for everyone who wants to talk in real time.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 6:22 am

Post by aphix »

In post 641, BlackVoid wrote:With that said, I thought him wanting to replace out was indicative of town. That seems like a dick move for scum to pull upon being caught and Paul comes across more as a laid back, chill dude so I have a hard time imagining him doing that as scum. But I can see town getting this frustrated.
See to me if you look at everything NTRP has been doing when there was pressure was "classic town move," to me it looks scripted. Like he's trying to look town.
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:24 am

Post by skitter30 »

Paul, I hope everything is going OK for you IRL!

BV, I'm around now. I'll address your questions, but I'm going to need to write a wall for that; give me a bit :)

I'm leaning town on BV:

Aphix
osuka/BV
tatters
DP --- willing to lynch here and below
Jae
Paul

Null is between tatters and DP.

We have like a day, so we need to figure this out.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:05 am

Post by skitter30 »

Highlights through that point of the game is in . I'll expand on those.

If you have other questions for me, let me know!

Spoiler: 1.
Attempts to buddy and then discredit me.
In post 308, NotTheRealPaul wrote:skitters i need u to be town because ur a great town.
First post of day 2. I take this to be a buddying attempt.

After I say that (), he responds with
In post 318, NotTheRealPaul wrote:awwww. ur wrong already.
There's a disconnect between 318 and 308. In 308, he's implying he values my opinion/reads and that he wants to work with me. 318 is slightly condescending and implies that I'm not only wrong on him, but that
I'll be wrong in the future as well
(from 'already'). The only thing that happened in between is that I said I had a scumlean in between, and suddenly, he's expecting me to be wrong.

I laid at some more of the discrediting at the end of . The one I have the biggest problem with is the following:
In post 335, NotTheRealPaul wrote:ya if not for the bp claim id sr the slot.
He's implying that my thought process is scummy and thus not credible, even though he's not *actually* saying I'm scum.

I pushed him on this several times (, ) because I wanted to know where this not!scumread came from. I finally got out of him that he'd scumread me because
In post 341, NotTheRealPaul wrote:id sr u because ur reads are C. R. A. P.

atleast on me and jae (ya ik u have no read u should imo)
he thinks my scumread on him is bad and because he thinks I should have had a read on Jae at that time (I was nullreading them, he was townleaning them).

I addressed both of these points in and at length. The tldr is that he couldn't explain the Jae townlean, and he couldn't explain why my read was bad. He'd scumread me for having bad reads, but he can't explain why they're bad.


Spoiler: 2/3
His vote on MWAP was very odd. I don't get any real frustration there, rather it seems to me like he's trying to push through the lynch. He took the scumclaim seriously, alleged that she was scum, and then argued a policy lynch. But nowhere does he actually seem *annoyed* with her for doing it. His reaction just doesn't seem genuine. I had pointed this out a few times, and he ignored me a few times, and only answered me after I pointed this out like twice.

He then started off Day2 by pushing Aphix for voting MWAP when he asked everyone to vote her. I don't get why that push makes any sort of sense at all. When I defended Aphix, he flip-flopped away, but *never* actually pushed anyone besides Aphix. Then he has a weird vote on Jae that came out of nowhere despite them being a townlean before, and then he goes back to Aphix as a gut!scum read. There's no other pushes there.


Spoiler: 4
His tone is just really off. I'm not sure I can explain this one properly. Like, it just feels kinda fake. False bravado might be the right word? I'm not sure. Like his reaction to the MWAP things just seems off. I don't see any real frustration there. Like just seems fake. and as well. I don't have the words to explain why these posts bother me. They just seem off. There's a lot of posts like 341/342 that just seem tonally weird. Like he's trying to be overly confident? That might be it.

The way he's interacting with me is also off. Like, he claims he thinks I'm 'great town', but then he immediately starts shading my reads, but can't explain why I'm wrong. There isn't any 'you're wrong about your reads. Let me show you why so we can solve the game together'. It's been 'you're wrong about your reads. Your reads are just bad. I'm just going to post to tell you you're wrong without actually doing anything to show you why I'm town'

Other assorted things in .
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:23 am

Post by BlackVoid »

Going through Paul's ISO again, will post in a bit. But first, a question for Paul:

@Paul, what alignment do you prefer playing as?
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:30 am

Post by BlackVoid »

@Skitter, I'll talk about your points first and then give my general impression of Paul's ISO:

1. I don't agree with the "buddy and discredit" point. I think it's easy for townies posts to be interpreted as "buddying" and in the last game we played, my posts towards Paul could certainly have come across that way. Him saying you are great town could just be his honest feelings about you. I also think if someone that I expected to read me correctly is wrong, I'd probably laugh about it so I don't think the "you are wrong already" is particularly damning. I don't know why he said "already" though. That was weird and I do want an explanation for that.

2. I didn't like the "I'd scumread you if you weren't conf-town" bit from Paul. But several people said something similar. Ciara in , DoctorPepper in and then Paul in . I also remembered Paul very accurately saying in Newbie 1797 that your aggression made you town. You had a pretty aggressive opening here pushing on Paul so by his own logic, I'd expect him to think it's townie even not considering that your predecessor was conf-town. But I thought the piggybacking off of Ciara and Osuka to further call you scummy definitely came across as dismissive.

3. Paul saying your reads are bad I think is referring to the fact that you have suspicions of one of his townleans and Paul himself while townreading his biggest suspect (Aphix). I'll have to check the timeline on this though as I'm not sure at what point JaeReed started becoming a scumread for you.

4. I agree that his vote on MWAP was odd. Like I said, it's weird that he took it as a literal scumclaim. I also don't know how he got this superconfident scumread on MWAP in the first place in . MWAP only made around five posts by that time and I'd be pushing to get him replaced as opposed to lynched. I also didn't like as a reaction to MWAP's scumclaim. If Paul legit thought that was scum giving up, he'd assume that the lynch was going to happen anyways and wouldn't be so frantic about it. I could see it from scum wanting to make sure a mislynch doesn't slip away although I'm not sure if Paul is that kind of scum player.

5. Regarding Aphix, I certainly don't agree with the push and I'm on the fence about whether it's genuine. I'll go into it more in my next post.

6. I agree with your point about tone and upon re-reading, it's probably the biggest thing that sticks out to me. Paul in this game seems hyper-aggressive, often using strong language to make pushes is overly certain about his reads. That feels radically different than his play in TB's game where he was often sheepy and less abrasive in his interactions with people. I noticed what he said about being less aggressive in stronger playerlists and I'm wondering how much of that is alignment-indicative.

So, there are a lot of things I find bothersome in his posting there are a couple of hints that he may have a stronger scumgame than towngame so I need to think this through and actually engage him which will hopefully happen sometime today. Can you go over your other reads as well and whether you agree/disagree with any of mine? I haven't talked about MadTatters and Osuka but I have a slight townlean on Tatters and I don't know where the Osuka townreads are coming from. I also don't think JaeReed/Paul make a lot of sense as partners given how obviously they were leading the game together early on D1 and townblocking with each other.
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DoctorPepper
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:15 pm

Post by DoctorPepper »

In post 640, BlackVoid wrote:
DoctorPepper:


I have conflicting feelings here. I don't find the reasoning behind either of his major pushes compelling. The MWAP vote was basically a policy-lynch for claiming scum. The Aphix vote was purely because Aphix accused Paul of scumslipping (something that Osuka and JaeReed pushed before DoctorPepper did).

But I liked how strongly he was pushing Aphix in . He comes across like he really buys into his argument.

Why policy-lynch someone that claimed scum? If you really thought it was a scumclaim, I'd expect something like "well, he gave up and claimed scum so let's lynch him." The policy-lynch phrasing seems like you either knew he was town or didn't really expect him to flip scum there and comes across as not taking responsibility for the flip. Immediately griping about the lynch in right after voting feels weird.

I don't understand your townreads either. JaeReed is still a townread because he proposed a BP-claim strategy? MWAP was town because his posts give off a "vibe of a newb-town player?" What does that mean? You said in that it could be scum acting cautious but you doubt it. Why? Also, how come you were townreading MWAP for being cautious and now townreading MadTatters for not being cautious? A little more elaboration on the distinctions would be nice.
A person claiming scum is a PL plain and simple. I've seen the same from a player here called BBMolla. And it makes sense. If that person is town, then it means they are not taking the game seriously and are not gonna give good reads. Yes, it could be a wasted lynch, but scum aint gonna NK that and I wouldn't trust a player with that judgment and lack of thinking to go into a potential lylo situation. Basically, it's a lynch that gets rid of a potential liability.

Whenever I scum read, I tend to look for motivation and see if the moves they make are calculated as scum. MWAP felt like town not wanting to make mistakes at first, before going rogue and Tatters would say things that scum wouldn't say. Why would scum actively say things going against the grain. Tatters isn't even pushe actively. The heat today is on aphix and Paul mostly. The smart scum thing to do would be to lie lowand let the townies fight amongst themselves, not actively go against the flow and say something like that. It could be new scum that is careless, but more likely town that feels that way about their read.
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