Micro 829: The Coalition [Endgame]

[Chara]

what was your thought process in deciding on me here? what about skitter? or elephant?
Aubrey is the one i do understand, because i doubt he's scum with an untownread partner, unless it's Gamma as you said.

[Almost50]

or why you odn't have a plan for what happens if chara flips town

Because I can't see you as scum. I don't get Aubrey scum unless it's with Chara or Gamma.

Hmm.. maybe Aubrey with skitter would make sense to someone else? I mean, you were also guaranteed your place when Aubrey decided to remove himself. That's 3 possible scum partners with Aubrey if he is scum, but then I hard TR you and Gamma.

*Sigh*

People are reacting to my plan as if it was gospel, when I want it to be discussed, opposed, dismantled to pieces before being approved or rejected.

@Chara: Do NOT get defensive. Go along with the discussion and make your own points. Exclude yourself. You know what? Assume you're going to eat rope today. You are now confirmed a townie starting tomorrow 9in which you won't be in the game) so you had better give us your best shot on how to go from there. Just like I did. remove yourself and assume the coalition failed and let's see where you want us to go.

[Almost50]

i think the amount of people pushing against chara being townread early on makes me think chara is more likely town than not

a50 is town af

OK. Let me accept this argument for Chara to be Town from you. Who's scum based on how things went from then on? Who would you lynch from the coalition if it was mod-confirmed it failed? Why? Who is the most likely partner for that first lynch, whether in or out of the coalition? What makes you think they're teamed together?

Just keep in mind the first lynch must be IN the coalition because that's where we

know

there's scum if the game doesn't end. The second lynch could either be in or out of it. I'll do all possible pairings and then start excluding some with explanations, and putting some as more likely also with explanations. I just need to have a good 2 hours of free time to do that.

[Chara]

Now even assuming we did lynch you first and you flipped Town I'd be the second lynch anyway. I'm saving everyone the trouble of going in circles for the next 2 gamedays. You KNOW everybody will be paranoid of me if I don't lynch scum today, assuming the coalition does fail. And if people are being skeptical about me scum won't be shooting me either.

lynching me then you isn't any better than lynching you and then me.

and lynching yourself first to make sure you don't get mislynched for failing to lynch scum is... kind of ridiculous, isn't it? lynching you to make sure your plan goes through is only valuable if the plan is valuable. (meaning Chara is scum). if you successfully lynch scum me there's really no need to get anybody to trust you more than that.

i realized while writing this post that i'm arguing pointless stances because i still think you're town. i'll leave it anyway.

[no lunch]

Of course!

I do hope it just passes. However, I believe you are scum after Almost50, but before Chara or skitter30.

kinda interested in how you got to be townreading me taht strongly?

I did my homework.

Let us see how the coalition goes. If I need to town case you, I am happy to.

[Aubrey]

I doubt Chara will eat rope today.

[Aubrey]

And I have little faith the coalition will be a success. Seeing as Sky is still playing along, that only leaves Gamma and MME as our saving grace.

[Chara]

@Chara: Do NOT get defensive. Go along with the discussion and make your own points. Exclude yourself. You know what? Assume you're going to eat rope today. You are now confirmed a townie starting tomorrow 9in which you won't be in the game) so you had better give us your best shot on how to go from there. Just like I did. remove yourself and assume the coalition failed and let's see where you want us to go.

fine. if the coalition failed then there's at least one scum in elephant/skitter. don't know partners right now besides Aubrey.
if Aubrey is scum: it's with one of them, or he's scum with Gamma.

how's that.

[no lunch]

Lynching Chara today is certainly not a good idea.

[Chara]

skitter and elephant can both be town only if the scumteam is exactly Aubrey/Gamma. otherwise Aubrey made a pretty bad gamble.

[Skygazer]

scumteam was actually mme and me, we decided to concede because we were in an unrecoverable spot

[Aubrey]

DDDDAAAAMMMMMNNNNNN.

Thank god. In the seven or so years I've been playing on and off, I've never been mis-lynched. I was figuring I was about to lose that call to fame.

[Aubrey]

Why townread Gamma so early?

[Chara]

...and i'll apologize to Almost for getting angry about this when it didn't matter.
sorry Almost.

[Skygazer]

reaction testing

aubrey and chara were p quick to respond and i liked their responses

[Almost50]

what was your thought process in deciding on me here? what about skitter? or elephant?
Aubrey is the one i do understand, because i doubt he's scum with an untownread partner, unless it's Gamma as you said.

I explained it earlier. basically when I cam in you were about the only one guaranteed your place in the coalition. Even when I made the wrong assumption about how the coalition votes work I was keeping track of who was included in whose list. You remained on everyone's list always. pushing for Irrelephant to be in it was heavily resisted, and when he did get in it he couldn have been removed again with ease. He can't be scum with someone outside of the coalition. In other words, if he is scum his partner is also in the coalition. Theoretically it could be me, you, skitter or Aubrey, but I know it isn't me and I would bet the game on skitter being Town the way she's playing. She's so engaged even after having been declared a global TR. That's Town!her I'm sure.

Gamma also was hard to get in, but I think I did well in convincing everyone. So, same as Irrel his partner was already in the coalition if he's scum. This means Irrel+Gamma is a NOT a realistic scum team to consider.

Aubrey would either be scum with you, skitter or Gamma.. or maybe Irrel? I need to go back and see when exactly Aubrey decided to remove himself from his own list to refresh my memory.

no lunch -for instance- didn't resist his own removal from the coalition much. If he's scum his partner

must have been

there all along, or -maybe- it is Irrelephant whom I was pushing for the coalition instead on no lunch?

Do you now get an idea of how I'm going about this? I have not necessarily come to the final version of the plan, and I need to go check again.. but we have much time left on our hands with one piece of info that's about to get confirmed.

[Aubrey]

This'll also be probably one of my last games for awhile. This was my first game playing since getting hired on and not freelancing on my own time. I learned I have horrible self control issues with this game at work.

[Chara]

this is such a terrible mix of happiness that i had a reason to get so emotional and dismay that we have to keep doing this.

[Skygazer]

im so sorry chara <3

[Chara]

Almost, i think your plan is relying too much on your skitter townread.

and elephant was one of my public TRs. even though he wasn't widespread in the coalition, scum elephant could have made the reasonable assumption he

would

get there before it was finalized. his only competition was Gamma Emerald.

pedit: it's fine, it was a good idea.

[Skygazer]

VOTE: irrel

[Chara]

i liked Aubrey's response too. i think i was right with that townread to begin with.

in order of preference i would go with elephant first and skitter second. skitter's real-time interaction with me was good, and so is the meta. it doesn't make skitter surely not scum but if she is she's playing a really good game.

elephant being scum would also mean he's playing really well. i'd need to look into that more because i still like my reasoning for townreading him to begin with.

Aubrey is again scum with one of them anyway, or scum with Gamma. but i'm avoiding hunting for that particulae team right now because Sky's reaction test was very good, and Sky/Aubrey isn't a pairing i'm considering.
(going to double check however.)

[Almost50]

scumteam was actually mme and me, we decided to concede because we were in an unrecoverable spot

*Sigh of relief*

So, my original argument was good, and you deflecting when I asked you how you would act if this was the case strengthened the feeling that you should not be in the coalition either.

Also

MME was scum

. This should be kept in everyone's minds: DO NOT GIVE A FREE PASS TO LURKERS.

[no lunch]

Nice post, AlmostFakety.

[Almost50]

...and i'll apologize to Almost for getting angry about this when it didn't matter.
sorry Almost.

No problem. I anticipated the rage, tbh, and I was going to reconsider after the coalition got confirmed (i.e. if it failed) based on your reaction here.