Micro 181: Everyone's being watched (Game Over)

[Wisdom]

In any case this scumteam was awesome for figuring out both PRs so easily

[Grimgroove]

Going to go over the entire topic again, at times of LyLo I think it's something everyone should be doing. I'm not sure how useful my 764 still is considering the circumstances. After RachMarie's flip I personally have the feeling I have to start all over again. My townread on Wisdom has solidified though. I think that as scum, one would more easily have hopped on the RachMarie-wagon. Not only did he not hop on it, he also tried people to move away from it. I don't say this to wash my own hands in innocence, I realize I was wrong, but I still think there were plenty of elements pointing towards RachMarie being scum and I can't imagine scum not taking advantage of that. In this sense my attention is directed to Malakittens and Miss Destroyer who were both also on the wagon.

Egg, there's still an open question for you in 856.

Wisdom, I realize Miss Destroyer is currently still your preferred lynchee, but I don't think tunneling will do us any good at this stage of the game. I'd definitely stay careful when it comes to placing that vote. At the same time I think that vote shows the sincerity of Wisdom's conviction that Miss Destroyer is scum, something that can't be easily faked by scum, pointing yet again to Wisdom being town. Could you maybe provide a reads list of all players and see where we go from there?

Miss Destroyer: Could you go over your thought processes in more detail when you were placing that hammer? It seemed very sudden to me.

Malakittens: You were on the RachMarie train from the very beginning. Did you ever consider moving your vote away from there? If so, when and why? If not: What was so compelling for you that made you decide to leave it there?

I don't mean to be hypocritical in asking people about their motivations for voting RachMarie, so obviously I'm open for any questions to my role in her lynch.

[Wisdom]

Im rereading the entire game myself right now, and I gotta say I'll take my 874 back.
How possible is it that it's Egg-Malakittens? Both of them look incredibly scummy to me.

[Wisdom]

See the thing we don't know if Horus sent in an action prior to flaking. If he didn't then its likely randomized which could be likely Horus/egg visited Fuzzy due to that.

What I don't get is how Egg defended Rach hardcore. If Egg was scum and did that it would be a ballsy move and we would be moving into the 'too bold to be scum' category type gambit.

There's the chance that Egg could be town and went and visited Fuzzy, but it wouldn't make sense to clear Rach off that because he would know that PoE he could have been the only one other than Rach who visited Fuzzy.

So
Let's think of this scenario (disclaimer: it's only my speculation):
Mala-Horus
Horus killed fuzzy, and Mala blocked DBK.
Until the above post, everyone has claimed their targets, with Mala having claimed that she did visit DBK.
And in this post, Mala is trying to give reasons for Egg being town and visiting Fuzzy. Because she knows that Horus/Egg visited Fuzzy, and that he will have to claim it.
Ofc Egg realized that the DBK block was a good call, as the watcher would have outted now after all this discussion. So he lied about who he visited.

Does this make sense, or am I conf-biasing?

[Wisdom]

@Egg:

So let's see. You come into the thread chainsaw defend the largest wagon (MD) and then chainsaw the second largest wagon (Rach). Now you're trying to deflect the wagons onto me without really giving a read on Grim, Wisdom or Swords.
Although your first post gave out how you feel about them Grim/Wisdom, but not in depth. You didn't mention Swords/Bo.

You say you have meta to defend HD, but he's barely posting and for Mara I'm just not seeing her town play. (I have played with both alignments and I'm starting to figure out how to read her correctly)
So link me to your meta defense of HD, What shows us he's town rather not scum? Where's the similarities or differences between his play? Have you done an analysis on Mara too?

So question is have you read up on anyone else's meta other than HD's? Such as have you done a meta analysis of me?

Why are you so sure someone other than Rach did visit Fuzzy. You are so blinded thinking she's being truthful when there's a chance she could be lying.

@Rach you were at L-2 and this isn't the first time you panicked and claimed early like this. You did this in HB and due to this it gives off a semi-town tell, but the difference is between this game and that game you are more passive in my opinion. Which doesn't jibe with your town-meta.

To be more clear, my point is that Mala did not make this realization (that they are not in danger from the watcher), hence why she claimed she visited DBK (which she did) and why she tried to defend a fuzzy-visit for Egg.

[Wisdom]

Oops that quote was a leftover from multiquoting, ignore it

[Wisdom]

Watcher is one shot. if they saw someone else visit fuzzy, they should claim. If they only saw rach visit fuzzy, they should still claim. In both of these cases, they have no shot left and it doesn't matter if they are outted. If no one claims, we can assume the watcher didn't use their ability last night and we have no solid info on Rach except her posts which heavily indicate she's a VT who visited fuzzy.

still, either rach is scum or scum was ballsy enough to lie. That's still pretty valuable info. Give me a bit to decide if I think scum would be that ballsy or not and what it might mean if they were.

And this here confirms what I assumed about Egg; he did assume that the watcher was blocked successfully and thus his claim can easily be a lie.

[JasonWazza]

Vote Count 3.1

Not voting: Egg, Wisdom, Malakittens, Grimgroove, Miss Destroyer,

with 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2013-07-10 02:57:35)

[Wisdom]

@Egg:

So let's see. You come into the thread chainsaw defend the largest wagon (MD) and then chainsaw the second largest wagon (Rach). Now you're trying to deflect the wagons onto me without really giving a read on Grim, Wisdom or Swords.
Although your first post gave out how you feel about them Grim/Wisdom, but not in depth. You didn't mention Swords/Bo.

You say you have meta to defend HD, but he's barely posting and for Mara I'm just not seeing her town play. (I have played with both alignments and I'm starting to figure out how to read her correctly)
So link me to your meta defense of HD, What shows us he's town rather not scum? Where's the similarities or differences between his play? Have you done an analysis on Mara too?

So question is have you read up on anyone else's meta other than HD's? Such as have you done a meta analysis of me?

Why are you so sure someone other than Rach did visit Fuzzy. You are so blinded thinking she's being truthful when there's a chance she could be lying.

@Rach you were at L-2 and this isn't the first time you panicked and claimed early like this. You did this in HB and due to this it gives off a semi-town tell, but the difference is between this game and that game you are more passive in my opinion. Which doesn't jibe with your town-meta.

And it might be my confbias and my desire to see Egg-Mala making more sense, but after rereading my exchange with Mara I realize I was tunneling hard. She's not as scummy as I thought. And the sudden hammer on Rach doesn't look like something she would do as scum either.

[Wisdom]

wtf how do those quotes appear

[Wisdom]

Anyway
I think Egg-Mala

Grim, MissD, thoughts?

[Wisdom]

Also, something else I noticed in my reread:

@Fuzzy:

You seem different this game.. More activity for one and secondly giving out reads.. Is there a reason for this? Did you roll scum?

Why are you softclaiming a PR?

WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU ROLEFISHING.

One does it .. Does not mean you can do it back.

Stfu. ._.

These possibly point to Mala picking up the fact fuzzy is a doc (hence the accurate kill)

[Grimgroove]

See the thing we don't know if Horus sent in an action prior to flaking. If he didn't then its likely randomized which could be likely Horus/egg visited Fuzzy due to that.

What I don't get is how Egg defended Rach hardcore. If Egg was scum and did that it would be a ballsy move and we would be moving into the 'too bold to be scum' category type gambit.

There's the chance that Egg could be town and went and visited Fuzzy, but it wouldn't make sense to clear Rach off that because he would know that PoE he could have been the only one other than Rach who visited Fuzzy.

So
Let's think of this scenario (disclaimer: it's only my speculation):
Mala-Horus
Horus killed fuzzy, and Mala blocked DBK.
Until the above post, everyone has claimed their targets, with Mala having claimed that she did visit DBK.
And in this post, Mala is trying to give reasons for Egg being town and visiting Fuzzy. Because she knows that Horus/Egg visited Fuzzy, and that he will have to claim it.
Ofc Egg realized that the DBK block was a good call, as the watcher would have outted now after all this discussion. So he lied about who he visited.

Does this make sense, or am I conf-biasing?

The main problem is I see no reason why Egg would realise the DBK-block was a good call, and why would Malakittens fail to see that?

I also don't see this as a defense for Egg visiting Fuzzy (it's quite on the fence in this regard, both the "Egg visited Fuzzy as scum" and the "Egg visitied Fuzzy as town"-scenarios aren't really worked out and inconclusive. Scenario 1 is seemingly ruled out because of the ballsyness, scenario 2 is seemingly ruled out because of the little sense it would make.), but more as a thought process trying to make sense of why Egg would defend RachMarie like that.

I'm still in the process of re-reading everthing so not ready for conclusions yet. Going to check up on the interactions in the Miss Destroyer-Malakittens-Egg-triangle.

[Wisdom]

Why Egg would realize that the block was accurate is easy; he himself explained almost instantly after his claim that the watcher would have claimed by now and therefore it's safe to assume they were blocked.
Also he explained why it would be better for scum to lie about their target than say they visited fuzzy.

Now as to why Mala didn't pick that up.. I don't know, but I have a theory. The Egg replacement happened in the day, not the night. Which means Mala had no communication with Egg, and could not be sure about what he thinks or what he will do. Therefore, he tried to defend a fuzzy-visit for him just in case he decides to be honest and claim he visited fuzzy. Of course Egg didn't, but Mala couldn't know that.

How does that sound to you?

[Wisdom]

she* tried

[Egg]

You fucks should have listened to me yesterday and lynched mala instead of Rach.

vote mala

I'll read today's posts on my lunch break.

[Wisdom]

^Typical "I told you so" scum trying to take credit that he predicted someone was town

[Grimgroove]

@Wisdom:
Looking at just that conversation, I guess it could make sense, though I personally don't consider "pre-emptively defending your scumbuddy" a very common, nor smart, tactic.

Also hold into account Egg has had Malakittens as his main scumread pretty much since he replaced in, making that connection less probable in my eyes. One could assume bussing, but if that's the case Egg would've taken it quite far I think.

His vote right now, this early in LyLo, I'm not liking at all.

My re-reading is taking longer than expected, work is getting a bit in the way.

[Wisdom]

It is bussing. As you can see, he's the towncred-hunting type, and that's what he's trying to do; take credit from a Mala lynch then try to push me as her partner.

[Wisdom]

And MissD is likely to vote me over him in the final lylo, so it makes sense.

[Grimgroove]

Do you think that in the stage of a LyLo scum would prefer building up towncred, or just go for the win?
Somehow I don't believe Egg and Malakittens are in the same team simply because I don't see why Egg would opt for lynching his partner, while he might as well try to lynch somebody else and get an insta-win with both scum intact. He was pushing on you during the end of Day 2, why wouldn't he just try to continue doing that and try to go for the win?

Given this assumption:
What I see now (still without having re-read everything) is two possibilities:

* Malakittens is indeed scum, along with Miss Destroyer or Wisdom, the latter of which seems less likely because of how town he seems to me. Egg is on to Malakittens and votes her.
* Malakittens is not scum, and Egg is, basing himself on his earlier behavior/cases against Mala, going for a final push on the road to scum victory, along with his partner Miss Destroyer or Wisdom, and votes her.

I think the second option is more likely. An early vote in LyLo as town is just plain risky, no matter how certain you feel you are. If Egg is town and thinks Malakittens is scum, I still think he should wait with voting rashly like that. He doesn't seem concerned with quickhammering scum (which, in LyLo, is a distinct possibility), and that in itself I find worrysome.

As given the above, I find it very likely Miss Destroyer is scum in both scenarios, I'll be focussing on her interactions with people to see if I can see anything there in a first stage.

[Wisdom]

Some scum like to bus even when it isn't necessary, just to ensure they'll win. It happened in my first game, trust me, it happens. Please don't rule this team out just for that, when everything else makes so much sense and points to that team.

[Wisdom]

If he pushed me he would probably raise suspicion since his main scumread was Mala and not me; not to mention that you stated you are townreading me and he saw that; thus he knows he does not have your support to lynch me.

It's far more safe to bus then use the credit to win the final lylo.

[Wisdom]

Also.
We know for a fact DBK/sword was blocked on N1, namely was visited by scum.
Let's take a look at the claims again:

Claims:

RachMarie visited fuzzy

Miss Destroyer visited Malakittens
Wisdom visited DBK
Malakittens visited DBK

sword_of_omens visited Wisdom

Grimgroove visited Horus

Horus visited Malakittens

First of all if we follow my scenario, Horus(Egg) is the one lying here, visiting fuzzy instead of Malakittens.
If we assume that all claims prior to Egg's are legit, then the one who visited DBK and blocked him is either Wisdom or Malakittens. I know it isn't me, so this makes Malakittens scum.
MissD's claim about visiting Malakittens was the first after Rach claimed; unlike Egg, MissD couldn't be that sure just yet that the watcher is not going to out. It's not likely this is a lie.
Therefore Mala did visit DBK, and blocked him. And Horus did visit fuzzy, killed him, and Egg lied.

I really cannot see this being wrong.

[Egg]

Grim, as I said before, the wisdom read is gut and his attitude.

Wisdom, why is destroyer the only person you'd lynch if you are considering a me/mala team? If destroyer is scum, who is the buddy?

Actually, with swords flip, you (wisdom) make a good point. She definitely could have blocked him or even rolecopped him leading to last night's kill.

To 881, no, I didn't assume the watcher was blocked. I was guessing that they were scared to claim or didn't use their ability for whatever reason which I actually said.

Ran into someone. But

unvote

cuz LYLO. Will read up later