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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:23 pm

Post by Robbnva »

I'll bite

vote: kage
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:37 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

Votecount 2.0


Drchrist
Kagelord - Xvart, EvilPacman18, Robbnva
Konowa
Robbnva
VisceraEyes
xvart

Not Voting:

Drcrhist, Kagelord, Konowa, VisceraEyes.

*= Currently being replaced
**= V/la

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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:27 pm

Post by xvart »

In post 214, KageLord wrote:First of all, I didn't have to get out in front of the connection as the people that posted weren't looking for my head.
Second, it is a perfectly town move to not want to be dragged down by the scum that was buddying you.
Third, WIFOMy maybe, but true. And again, look over my scum meta to see that I bus scumbuddies that get themselves in trouble.
I am especially disinterested in self meta in this game because of the small game size. Bussing a scum buddy on D1 when you have two total scum members is worlds different than busing a scumbuddy on D1 when you have three total members. And the biggest point I want to make here is my italicized portion above. Scum have more motivation to not want to be associated with a scum member. Town would not (compared to scum) feel obligated to distance from a flipped scum member; especially since in the previous sentence you said nobody was looking for your head; but that is probably because I had not posted yet.

In post 214, KageLord wrote:1. "Talked about how everyone could be scum": Did you read the post? I actually said the opposite. I said that I picked my list based on POE because most people look town (and indeed most are).
I suppose I should have said you gave no definitive reads and fence sat on everyone. For example:
Konowa:
In post 208, KageLord wrote:I would guess Konowa-scum and VE as just lurker-town.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:The thing that makes me hesitant on Konowa is the quick switch to blinker after it looked like my lynch might not happen. Since it is a probable 2 scum setup, idk if Konowa-scum would be so quick on the bus either.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:I was going to put Konowa at the head of this list because his initial vote on blinker made it look like he wanted an out from the wagon, but reading over the followup on blinker (and knowing blinker is scum) makes Konowa just look soooooo town.


evilpacman:
In post 208, KageLord wrote:Pacman's 181 gives me a good town feeling.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:Only thing I don't like about him so far is the hammer before claim.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:If someone bussed her (which I think more likely), my suspects in order would be: xvart, Pacman, Drchrist.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:And no, I'm not going back on the above about Pacman, it's just PoE with a lot of town-looking people.


DrChrist:
In post 208, KageLord wrote:Drchrist has just picked up a lot of towncred for me over the course of the game (but one of his towncred actions, the deadline extension, can be scum-motivated now that we know Natalie was scum).
You have danced all around those three people. As scum you are really in a tough position right now; basically you just want to get through today with a mislynch but you can't be calling too many people town so early because tomorrow you'll have to go back on those reads, hence the utter indecision in your reads and waffling back and forth.

In post 214, KageLord wrote:3. "Down with a lurker lynch": First of all, there is a precondition to that, which you kindly left out of your post (aka misrep). Also, are you saying that you do not want to lynch lurker VE?
I have no interest in lynching VE; heck, I don't even need VEs vote to get you lynched.

In post 223, KageLord wrote:Quick look at who we have left:

2. Drchrist - Looking pretty town
3. Kagelord - So town it hurts
4. Konowa - Obvtown
6. Robbnva - Almost obvtown (still very town)
7. EvilPacman18 - Hm... we can wait and see what he has
8. VisceraEyes - Who? Probtown only cuz of Natalie's scumread on him
9. xvart - Probscum, mostly PoE
lulz. And you still aren't voting for me despite your pomp and circumstance about a flash wagon accidentally lynching someone with so few people in the game. You've clearly got me as your number one suspect; nobody else is voting me so what is your hesitation voting me?

Still, the most convincing argument right now is the fact that rblinker was lynched because of his reaction to you being called scum. That situation is specifically unique to you being scum; because it is far more likely to occur from a scum member
about his buddy
(being you in this case) than a scum member about a town person. rblinker's behavior was scummy independent of everything else in the game; but it was correlated to your alignment making you much more likely to be scum upon his confirmed scum flip.
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:23 pm

Post by KageLord »

First, no one better hammer before VE does something today or gets replaced.

Second, can someone other than xvart explain the case on me?

Third, for the record, do the people voting me think that Natalie intended to bus me?

In post 227, xvart wrote:
In post 214, KageLord wrote:First of all, I didn't have to get out in front of the connection as the people that posted weren't looking for my head.
Second, it is a perfectly town move to not want to be dragged down by the scum that was buddying you.
Third, WIFOMy maybe, but true. And again, look over my scum meta to see that I bus scumbuddies that get themselves in trouble.


I am especially disinterested in self meta in this game because of the small game size. Bussing a scum buddy on D1 when you have two total scum members is worlds different than busing a scumbuddy on D1 when you have three total members. And the biggest point I want to make here is my italicized portion above. Scum have more motivation to not want to be associated with a scum member. Town would not (compared to scum) feel obligated to distance from a flipped scum member; especially since in the previous sentence you said nobody was looking for your head; but that is probably because I had not posted yet.


Bringing up the small game size is a fair point. I personally would bus anyway in the case of blinker (once he flipped I would almost be a guaranteed lynch within the next 2 days if I didn't bus him as scum), but you have no way of knowing that's what I'd do so that's enough of that point. Sure, scum have more motivation, but you admit that town has motivation too. So it's all a matter of how vehemently you think I distanced, I guess.

In post 214, KageLord wrote:1. "Talked about how everyone could be scum": Did you read the post? I actually said the opposite. I said that I picked my list based on POE because most people look town (and indeed most are).
I suppose I should have said you gave no definitive reads and fence sat on everyone. For example:
Konowa:
In post 208, KageLord wrote:I would guess Konowa-scum and VE as just lurker-town.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:The thing that makes me hesitant on Konowa is the quick switch to blinker after it looked like my lynch might not happen. Since it is a probable 2 scum setup, idk if Konowa-scum would be so quick on the bus either.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:I was going to put Konowa at the head of this list because his initial vote on blinker made it look like he wanted an out from the wagon, but reading over the followup on blinker (and knowing blinker is scum) makes Konowa just look soooooo town.


... "look sooooo town". I wonder what my read on Konowa was there. I guess it's pretty hard to decipher what "soooo town" means. It makes it even harder that I called him obvtown (a phrase I almost never use) in the next post. I'll probably be trying to lynch him next, huh? [/sarcasm]

Btw, "would" is the keyword in that first quote. If you took the whole sentence, you would see that that
would
be my read going solely on Natalie's play. Obviously that is not all that my reads are based on (except in the case of VE because he has nothing else yet).

evilpacman:
In post 208, KageLord wrote:Pacman's 181 gives me a good town feeling.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:Only thing I don't like about him so far is the hammer before claim.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:If someone bussed her (which I think more likely), my suspects in order would be: xvart, Pacman, Drchrist.
In post 208, KageLord wrote:And no, I'm not going back on the above about Pacman, it's just PoE with a lot of town-looking people.


lol I see that splitting up my sentences so it looks like I'm saying the things at different points is a thing with you.

Like I said, the hammer is the only thing I didn't like at that point. Prob is everyone but xvart looks townier than pacman (though I am intrigued now by this professed proof pacman has). Don't think it'll matter though, considering I'm about 90% sure on xvart-scum by now.

DrChrist:
In post 208, KageLord wrote:Drchrist has just picked up a lot of towncred for me over the course of the game (but one of his towncred actions, the deadline extension, can be scum-motivated now that we know Natalie was scum).


You have danced all around those three people. As scum you are really in a tough position right now; basically you just want to get through today with a mislynch but you can't be calling too many people town so early because tomorrow you'll have to go back on those reads, hence the utter indecision in your reads and waffling back and forth.


Except for the part where I clearly listed the order of my top 3 suspects' scumminess (and in the next post showed my townreads of practically everyone but you). In fact, I have shown more reads about other players than anyone in this game (a move that scum don't make unless they are bad). Who have you shown reads on? You are the one that has other people to move onto if I am mislynched today. By your own point, if I was scum, I would be committing suicide by giving townreads on everyone but you. If I was scum and got you mislynched today, I would almost 100% be the guaranteed lynch for tomorrow (which is actually a deal I would gladly take at this point because of my confidence in you being scum).

In post 214, KageLord wrote:3. "Down with a lurker lynch": First of all, there is a precondition to that, which you kindly left out of your post (aka misrep). Also, are you saying that you do not want to lynch lurker VE?
I have no interest in lynching VE; heck, I don't even need VEs vote to get you lynched.


1. You skipped #2.
2. You make no defense to the fact that you misrepped me there.
3.
See, this is not a very town approach. Town would stop and think "ok, if we quicklynch this guy today and he flips town, we have lost 2 more townies (including NK) and now we still have a lurker that we can't read". Scum, on the other hand, thinks "hey, if I can get this guy mislynched quickly, I can leave the lurker completely there and they will surely want to get rid of him before lylo". The town option, which I have been trying to do, is wait on any action until we get something from VE's slot and then trying to lynch the probscum (you) like hell. See, on that 10% offchance that you are just playing bad town, we at least have some info on VE's slot going into tomorrow.

In post 223, KageLord wrote:Quick look at who we have left:

2. Drchrist - Looking pretty town
3. Kagelord - So town it hurts
4. Konowa - Obvtown
6. Robbnva - Almost obvtown (still very town)
7. EvilPacman18 - Hm... we can wait and see what he has
8. VisceraEyes - Who? Probtown only cuz of Natalie's scumread on him
9. xvart - Probscum, mostly PoE
lulz. And you still aren't voting for me despite your pomp and circumstance about a flash wagon accidentally lynching someone with so few people in the game. You've clearly got me as your number one suspect; nobody else is voting me so what is your hesitation voting me?


The wagon on me is kind of making my point. You put the first vote on me not too long ago and I'm already L-1 without a post from Konowa (the most obvtown player we have right now) or VE. See, as much as I think you're scum, I don't want that happening to you yet. I would rather wait for those 2 (mostly VE) and then start a wagon on you.

Still, the most convincing argument right now is the fact that rblinker was lynched because of his reaction to you being called scum. That situation is specifically unique to you being scum; because it is far more likely to occur from a scum member
about his buddy
(being you in this case) than a scum member about a town person. rblinker's behavior was scummy independent of everything else in the game; but it was correlated to your alignment making you much more likely to be scum upon his confirmed scum flip.


Ok... I can't really argue against this since I don't know why rblinker did it. Probably to connect himself to a townie in case he did go down and/or to avoid being on the first mislynch (and then have a reason to push Konowa). In fact, thinking about this more, a similar scenario (but the reverse) happened in the game I linked earlier, which just finished. Skim D1 and early D2. I was scum in that game and Pine was town. He defended the hell out of me. Only problem was that when I flipped scum, this made him probably one of the easiest mislynches in mafia. Now, I could see scum using that idea to defend town which would accomplish one of two things: either the scum gets towncred after the mislynch or the townie gets scumcred after the correct lynch. This is all WIFOM of course, but it is what I think went down here.

Out of curiosity, are there any of my reads that you agree with (i.e. who do you think is very town)?
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:49 pm

Post by KageLord »

EBWOP: Konowa did post today, but it was before things got more interesting. I'm sure he'll have something to say about the goings on since his last post.
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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:35 am

Post by xvart »

In post 228, KageLord wrote:Third, for the record, do the people voting me think that Natalie intended to bus me?
In order to bus you that would mean you are scum. Slip?

In post 228, KageLord wrote:Ok... I can't really argue against this since I don't know why rblinker did it. Probably to connect himself to a townie in case he did go down and/or to avoid being on the first mislynch (and then have a reason to push Konowa).
I don't really see rblinker as the kind of scum that plays the long game, especially in his first couple of posts; further illustrated by his total shut down, lurking, and strategic replace out.

In post 229, KageLord wrote:EBWOP: Konowa did post today, but it was before things got more interesting. I'm sure he'll have something to say about the goings on since his last post.
Konowa said yesterday that rblinker flipping scum makes you more likely scum. I'm hopeful he will come in and hammer.

I'll respond to the rest later; I just wanted to say these things before the day got started.
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:41 am

Post by Robbnva »

I'm on my phone now but I just wanted to respond to this

Third, for the record, do the people voting me think that Natalie intended to bus me?


How did she bus you when she voted rampage?

All she did was say you were one of her scum reads. That's not bussing
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:09 am

Post by KageLord »

In post 230, xvart wrote:
In post 228, KageLord wrote:Third, for the record, do the people voting me think that Natalie intended to bus me?
In order to bus you that would mean you are scum. Slip?


The people voting me think I'm scum (or at least I think they think that), so since Natalie was scum, a later vote for me would be a bus in their eyes.

In post 228, KageLord wrote:Ok... I can't really argue against this since I don't know why rblinker did it. Probably to connect himself to a townie in case he did go down and/or to avoid being on the first mislynch (and then have a reason to push Konowa).
I don't really see rblinker as the kind of scum that plays the long game, especially in his first couple of posts; further illustrated by his total shut down, lurking, and strategic replace out.


Do you have any real reason to think he doesn't play the 2-day game? Maybe he thought I would be lynched anyway. Maybe he's just bad once he gets pegged as scum. Maybe he was only thinking a day ahead ("if I die today, KL dies tomorrow"). Maybe his scumbuddy gave him a tip before D1 started. I don't know.

In post 229, KageLord wrote:EBWOP: Konowa did post today, but it was before things got more interesting. I'm sure he'll have something to say about the goings on since his last post.
Konowa said yesterday that rblinker flipping scum makes you more likely scum. I'm hopeful he will come in and hammer.

I'll respond to the rest later; I just wanted to say these things before the day got started.


Am I really the only one that has a problem with this attitude toward VE?

In post 231, Robbnva wrote:I'm on my phone now but I just wanted to respond to this

Third, for the record, do the people voting me think that Natalie intended to bus me?


How did she bus you when she voted rampage?

All she did was say you were one of her scum reads. That's not bussing


I know. My question is more about whether you think she would have moved on to me. I know it's hard to answer what she would have done, but my thinking for VE being more likely town is that I don't think Natalie would have put her scumbuddy in her list of 3 scum reads. Her play seems pretty straightforward. Plus putting your only buddy as your second scum read (back to talking about me here) means you're almost forced to bus if the ABR lynch doesn't work out. Maybe it's just easier for me to think this since I know that at least 2/3 (ABR and me) of her list are town and most other townies only know 1/3 for sure.
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:36 am

Post by Drchrist »

Alright, right now with Pacman off the table xvarts posts 227 and 230 are making me look seriously at Kage. When I look back at K's posts relating to blinker/natalie pre-lynch, it looks to me like he's simply trying to dance around giving a definitive read, for example:

In post 34, KageLord wrote:
PEDIT: About rblinker's 23, I think it's too early to tell. If he's scum, I know I'm not his buddy so the only motive would be to get townpoints when I flip town and then he can look serious as he goes after xvart. If he's town, it makes sense that he would strongly question this wagon, as it's ridiculous.

In post 122, KageLord wrote:Post coming later. xvart or Konowa scum. Maybe blinker, will need to read him in ISO.

I just see Kage's Day 1 play with regards to blinker as trying to at least look a little bit distanced from him going into day 2. Right now, Kage is looking like the best lynch option IMO. I will be willing to hammer him, but only once we: A. Get VE back or replaced and B. Give him a chance to claim.
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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:14 am

Post by Robbnva »

I know. My question is more about whether you think she would have moved on to me


So you asked if we thought she was bussing you off something she didn't even do yet? lol


If she was smart she would have moved onto Konowa as he was the counter wagon. Obviously she wasn't smart.
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:14 am

Post by KageLord »

In post 233, Drchrist wrote:Alright, right now with Pacman off the table xvarts posts 227 and 230 are making me look seriously at Kage. When I look back at K's posts relating to blinker/natalie pre-lynch, it looks to me like he's simply trying to dance around giving a definitive read, for example:

In post 34, KageLord wrote:
PEDIT: About rblinker's 23, I think it's too early to tell. If he's scum, I know I'm not his buddy so the only motive would be to get townpoints when I flip town and then he can look serious as he goes after xvart. If he's town, it makes sense that he would strongly question this wagon, as it's ridiculous.

In post 122, KageLord wrote:Post coming later. xvart or Konowa scum. Maybe blinker, will need to read him in ISO.

I just see Kage's Day 1 play with regards to blinker as trying to at least look a little bit distanced from him going into day 2. Right now, Kage is looking like the best lynch option IMO. I will be willing to hammer him, but only once we: A. Get VE back or replaced and B. Give him a chance to claim.


This is fair enough. And it's posts like this that I was talking about when I said Drchrist has been building up towncred for me throughout the game.
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:22 am

Post by KageLord »

In post 234, Robbnva wrote:
If she was smart she would have moved onto Konowa as he was the counter wagon. Obviously she wasn't smart.


See the prob is she couldn't do that even if she was smart. By saying I looked scummy earlier and then putting me as her second scum read, there is no way she could have moved onto Konowa or xvart (who were most vocal on the early wagon on me) without it looking like a major flip-flop. So essentially putting me there would stop her from going onto the major counterwagon and more likely than not would back her into having to vote me next (unless she goes after VE and then has to switch to me when that lynch doesn't work). It's all speculation and WIFOM but that's just the way I see it, especially since I know I'm not her buddy.
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:24 am

Post by KageLord »

In post 236, KageLord wrote:
In post 234, Robbnva wrote:
If she was smart she would have moved onto Konowa as he was the counter wagon. Obviously she wasn't smart.


See the prob is she couldn't do that even if she was smart. By saying I looked scummy earlier and then putting me as her second scum read, there is no way she could have moved onto Konowa or xvart (who were most vocal on the early wagon on me) without it looking like a major flip-flop. So essentially putting me there would stop her from going onto the major counterwagon and more likely than not would back her into having to vote me next (unless she goes after VE and then has to switch to me when that lynch doesn't work). It's all speculation and WIFOM but that's just the way I see it, especially since I know I'm not her buddy.


Sorry for triple post, but also... if you agree that she wasn't very smart, don't you think it's more likely that all her scum reads are town (my theory) than she snuck her buddy into her middle scum read (a sneaky thing for scum to do)?
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:32 pm

Post by Robbnva »

so you ask if she would bus you when she didn't and than argue that she could have?

smh

bottom line is it isn't uncommon to list one of your scum buddies as a scum read. I am not going to assume one way or the other.

someone once said the best way to catch scum is to put them into an uncomfortable situation and see how they react. That is how we basically caught blinker, his reaction to your wagon getting run up to L-1 on page 2. To me it looks like he was freaking out trying to protect you.

plus I don't really seeing you make any arguments that are logically sound, it looks like you are reaching because you know your days are numbered


BUT - if you are town, there is good news.

Lynching scum day 1 we earned a free lynch, so if you actually are town, your lynch will definitely add clarity and should help narrow down who scum is. we really don't have any other option today imo
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:00 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

I am considering replacing Viscera Eyes. He has been prodded 2-3 (I'm trying to think if the pre-game prod counts) times and hasn't really got into the game, (and is close to another prod) and I would rather someone else actually have the chance to play instead of holding up the game. This isn't referred to in my rules yet I feel this is something that I should add in on the go, to make sure you guys all get a chance to have fun. Changing the rules to reflect that decision:

III. Activity and Deadline:
1. You are required to post at least once every 72 hours. You will be prodded otherwise. When prodded, you have 24 hours to post in thread, or be replaced. I will tell you if I'm considering replacing . If you have a pre-planned absence, please notify me ahead of time and you will not be prodded. If your absence is for an unreasonable amount of time, you will be forcibly replaced regardless of advance notification.


Addition:
*You will also be replaced if I have to prod you many too times and often.*

I'm sorry VisceraEyes. If you have any complaints, please address me by PM. Others may also post their concerns to me if they think this isn't right, etc. I'm playing it by ear :D
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:04 pm

Post by Drchrist »

Good to hear, let's hurry up and get him replaced.
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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:08 pm

Post by Robbnva »

who is viscera eyes?

:checks playerlist:

:checks iso:

oh yeah F' that dude. replace him.
Proudest mafia moment was the greatest unvote in the history of mafiascum.
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:30 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

Hoopla replaces VisceraEyes effective immediately! Welcome to the game!
:mrgreen:
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:33 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Hey everyone, I haven't read the game yet, but a 10 page catchup shouldn't take me too long.
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:34 pm

Post by Hoopla »

The ABR kill was unusual given his stoic opposition of the rblinker wagon, at least initially, which leads me to believe that he could easily have remained a suspect, if not today, but deeper in the game when wifom starts to envelope his presence. I think it's unlikely a player like xvart would kill ABR in this situation - he had a placeholder of suspicion for ABR, after several D1 altercations, which could easily be referenced back to in the event of needing to find reason to justify a vote on ABR. In games when a solitary scumbag needs to survive several days, it's usually a very poor play to eliminate a possible lynch option, and I think xvart is acquainted with game theory enough to understand the position he is in. The only motivation he would have to go for an ABR kill is if he believed he could get town credit out of it somehow, and I don't think he'd think this collection of players would ascribe a weird kill to being something he couldn't do (if even discussed at all). I think he's calculating enough to know it's a suboptimal play overall.

So who can we assign scum motivation to? To be fair, I think we're in "unusual" territory when assigning motivation to all players, because you can reasonably construe that the kill was suboptimal for every player if ABR was lynchable. We're not looking for whether the play would be suboptimal for a player though - we're looking for whether a player would either not realise it was suboptimal OR realise it was suboptimal, but think he'd get town credit for making a suboptimal play.

A seductive option is evilpacman being the partner, with a creative NK gambit after realising his hammer was poor overnight. I'm only considering this option due to his opening post of Day 2 in which he declares what a stupid kill it was. I suspect this possibility is bordering on tinfoil though, as pacman expressed a town read on ABR late D1, so he presumably shouldn't have been able to get credit for killing off a mislynch target if he hadn't considered him scum before. Incorporating other aspects of the game, for evilpacman to be scum, it would mean a supreme double-bus would have had to have taken place early in D1 with blinker voting umoms right when his own wagon was in the balance. Given there were other viable options, it's likely he'd want to avoid the possibility of setting up a two-horse race between himself and his buddy. I think all things considered, it's correct to rule out pacman even though his hammer and D2 post initially stand out.

As a vocal proponent of evilpacman's lynch today, Robbnva is a player I
could
see the kill coming from. As I said before, it's a pretty unusual situation when applied to each player in this game, but if I cannot find reason to rule someone out, it validates the process of ruling people out others. The main reason stems from his view about pacman bussing - this is probably a true opinion regardless of alignment. I think if he's scum, he is representing the idea strongly enough to the point, where he thinks this is how he'd view it as town, and that other players will find it scummy. If this is what he believes is convincing, then it stands to reason that the opposite might look town to him - in this instance, the opposite is ABR who was overtly protective of blinker. Regardless of the correctness of either view, if this is how he thinks, then an ABR kill is viable.

As a side-point, I suspect Robbnva might be a deceptive player or one attracted to making unusual plays. I get this feeling when I read a post like this:

In post 111, Robbnva wrote:actually there is a huge difference, usually scum want to blend in and if they are voting someone they know is town, they want to be in a less obvious spot. in a game where it takes 5 to lynch putting someone at L-2 is far less threatening than putting someone at L-1.


This looks like a pretty sincere representation of his opinions about being scum (regardless of his alignment - I think he's being truthful either way), and it shows he is conscious of constructing unusual/less obvious positions as scum. Off the top of my head, I remember Konowa as once being a heavy busser (I'll need to recheck this), and as such may be willing to make the ABR kill too.

As a general rule, I think the more deceptive you are as a player, the more likely you are to be creative/willing to gambit - deception/creativity strongly correlate when scum. I only know this, because this is how I used to play as scum ( :wink: ), and when you're one privy to these mindsets, it's easy to evaluate the risk/reward of certain plays incorrectly.

I also wouldn't rule out Drchrist for no other reason that he doesn't seem overly insightful to me as a player (not trying to be offensive), and as such might not have thought about the NK as much. This reasoning also applies to my predecessor, but I know I'm town, so obviously, you the reader can consider that.

For similar reasons to Robbnva, I can't rule out KageLord as the potential killer, solely for this quote:

In post 208, KageLord wrote:Not sure why, but maybe because of the relational tells? Meaning blinker was obvbuddying me (which would be really stupid if we were both scum) and I didn't bus the hell out of him (which I would do if I were scum). Also Natalie puts ABR (conf town), me, and VE as her quick scumreads and I don't think she's the quickbussing type.


This shows Kage may have believed ABR looked really town if he was planning to argue from the perspective that Natalie isn't a quick busser. Scum don't typically argue from positions they explicitly disbelieve. Like, if as town, I tend to believe scum like to bus D1, I'm not going to represent the opposite view as scum in my next game. I think Kage could have reasonably believed that ABR may have looked town from Natalie's vote on him, which is enough for me assign possible motivation to ABR's kill.

~~

tl;dr? This is largely a nightkill analysis post ruling out xvart and evilpacman as scum. I'll post about my suspicions a little later on - just thought I'd present some new information, since this type of analysis doesn't seem to have been done.
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:57 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I'm not going to beat about the bush - Natalie's entrance to the game is probably the single most illuminating piece of information. I highly suspect of the four players she declared scummy, one of them is her partner. She clearly, like everyone else, must have understood her slot was doomed - as such, if she was going to creative a list of suspects, completely ignoring your partner is something she was likely conscious of.

There are some players on this site capable of deviating from this in these situations by hard bussing (like a vote on ABR-scum would have been) or hard buddying like calling your partner obv-town, or even completely failing to mention your buddy, but this usually comes from above average players who understand the dynamic of these situations on a level above. I don't think Natalie is experienced enough to know this, and I suspect the default/average player's instincts in this situation is to make a soft-bus. Her including four players as scummy is a good way to get away with one, and provides enough noise to not be obvious, which is something scum are usually worried about when soft-bussing.

KageLord and Konowa are prime suspects.
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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:00 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I think KageLord should claim - I have intentions to hammer.
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:45 pm

Post by KageLord »

Claim: VT

I would appreciate it if you would wait for a Konowa post before hammer though. I'm surprised at the read of Konowa as a prime suspect too. Looking at his relation to blinker alone makes him look really town to me.

Probably my final scumlist (just so I can say I was close at the end): xvart, Robb, Hoopla. Pacman's claim of proof that he's town intrigued me and even if it turns out to be bogus (which I'm 50-50 on), I don't think it's a scum move to claim it. Drchrist just makes too many town-motivated moves for me to believe it's an act. Looking Robb's D1 over in relation to blinker makes it seem possible that he is a buddy that went from soft poking to a soft bus to trying to connect other people to his doomed buddy. I think the reason I had him as town before had a lot to do with his telling people I was L-1 and not taking the easy hammer to me early. It was probably bias making me think that those actions instantly made him town.
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:48 pm

Post by evilpacman18 »

lynch please.
gg.
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:53 pm

Post by evilpacman18 »

p.s. Hoopla is really good at this game.
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