Heroes Wanted! (Game Over)

[MathBlade]

If anyone had the negate it was Titus and a buddy probably had it in the background and gave her the answer so she would look townie. Because town Titus takes powers to “break” games.

[MathBlade]

Had precog*

[Toranaga]

btw how do we know titus had precog? someone used mimickry on her, right?

[Nancy Drew 39]

ok math you veto me I veto you, deal?

wrt the power thing: sure. if I'm elected to receive a power, I'm 100% getting the sui bomb and letting other slots be resolved before setting myself off, unless people want me as leader instead. 1 for 1 is a pretty fantastic deal and everyone should just take it.

the suboptimal use of my power has so far given the best reason anyone has for townreading drixx btw

I could have targeted shiro and be talking with the dead now, and I did forget to send it in n2, but none of that makes my play "so suboptimally it's actually scummy". I think my actions have been fine. I targeted FA, drixx and gamma, and all of those results have given us something to help solve the game. using that as the basis to scumread me is pretty awful but alas, you do you mate.

I do not veto.

I think it solves the horrible uses of powers perfectly if you are one of the bombers.
Your second paragraph sketches me out to be frank. Like “look at this I am ‘helping’” it just feels wrong.

However if town thinks you’re better as leader that is the majority decision and I will respect that. I would just like to be voting the other person nominated. I just don’t think you are a good choice.

Tor offering to blow himself up is obviously a horrible decision but “sketchy”? How? I really don’t see that at all.

The blow himself up part is not the “sketchy” party

It’s the “I am helping” LAMIST that is sketchy.

Are you suggesting that this was some sort of gambit and that he wasn’t actually serious?

[Toranaga]

btw how do we know titus had precog? someone used mimickry on her, right?

I just saw she actually claimed it

mathblade also took precog? when did that happen?

[Frozen Angel]

I'm not sure if I want 3 bombs to explode tomorrow. like thats too many sudden death without time to re-evaluate after flips.

First it would be tonight not tomorrow, as explained before scum can just kill the one with the bomb that is not them.

Second there is no more risk with 3 than 2.

The math works out as we win even if we give all three bombs to scum. There is no reason not to give out all three bombs.

If we choose scum they won't get the bombs they will get petrification and will kill people later when they can win this without exploding themselves obv. It's a really risky thing to trust that

Also the bombs were not exploding during day? if not the scum might try to frame the bombers using roleblock or something? last night roleblock was offered and there is also a possible power negation in game. who were last night list again?

@Frozen Angel even if all three scum are chosen for bombs and all three choose petrify we still win. All the scum would be confirmed and the last day is a two or three town versus last scum. If even all the scum choose petrify is literally a non factor. I don’t have the exact numbers but I posted them somewhere earlier.

In regards to roleblocks— It is extremely unlikely they had power negate or they could have easily used it in a myriad of ways like blocking Tor or disrupting some prior plans. We have already determined multiple times this is not the case Even if they do and they block one of the bombs going off then there are still two others to mitigate. Scum having two or three power negates would be insane. That scum roleblocker would have to solo an impenetrable townblock. They could say you did the block incorrectly but there is no way said person isn’t properly lynched by someone in the town block.

Then what are you suggesting?

Titus chose no one else but ank night 2 or that scum didn't choose power negation?

Makes no sense.

I think they decided to not use it to get a false clear from ufo

- potentially when they were hitting out of power roles or that they used it on shiro/ank the nights they killed them cause that would secure such kills

The hidden scum could have picked it but didn’t UFO only claim Power Mimicry on D4?

I was talking about last night that they killed stun who didn't need power negate over everyone else in townblock

[MathBlade]

btw how do we know titus had precog? someone used mimickry on her, right?

No.

The only reason we think she did is she said the powers first.

She likely used me to confirm she took precog but had a hidden buddy whisper the powers in a scum PT and then knowing me knew I would take it and then had me “confirm” she did while she actually had negate

The floundering of Titus meant that she couldn’t go down as she had negate
Her pointing out Creature was a vanilla scum to buy her time and one of the other two buddies had precog.

Pedit @Tor the night it was available

[MathBlade]

Night two @Tor

[Toranaga]

FA

Me

Ank Nancy Drixx

Math

Shiro

Quoting for reference
Bolding the confirmed + Titus herself coz she cant unchoose herself.

Drixx is the one person off list I left out. Mod said too many to give him one. He was considered the scummiest and there was no hood.

Still catching up.

I took Precognition since that power role can be tracked and no one trusted me. Sending in my PM to use it.

quoting this for myself

[Toranaga]

what does titus mean with "there was no hood" when referring to drixx in that post?

[Nancy Drew 39]

which has already been established multiple times it can’t

Why it can't happen?!

how did you establish this?!

It's litteraly near certain that a scum with power negation is in the game with titus flip.

No. It’s very likely scum have a power.

It’s unlikely that is power negate due to the townblock not dying and due to Tor getting his check off supposedly. They would have to have holstered three nights in a row for negate. The odds of that are small to infinestimal as noted by others

Makes no sense. why would scum (who had also titus) choose another power over power negate night 2? like how can you assume that? It's WAY more likely that they used power negate with shiro ank kill and holestered last night or used it on stungun to make sure he dies and nothing itefers.

Because Titus is an arrogant scum player who would likely think negate is inherently scummy.

Like this is completely irrational paranoia. It does not make sense.

ocaam razor says there is a power negation in game cause titus was scum. And yes the ability is scummy hence why she hide who got that power. If she wnated them to have a towny power she wouldn't choose a hidden scum for the ability.

You can say she didn't give any power to a scum instead of ank then with that logic but yours is built on moon.

Agree, however Power Negation was not the only scummy power available that night, there were 3, 2 of which I actually understand and the 3rd which somehow involves KP. In any case, Titus wouldn’t hide, either a widely townread pick nor a scummy ability, so it’s quite likely the hidden scum chose one of the 3.

[MathBlade]

what does titus mean with "there was no hood" when referring to drixx in that post?

I think she meant the superhero team didn’t get a hood

[Nancy Drew 39]

I have some tables I must sort tonight so I can't iso everyone should be able to do one and sure will do hebichan's first

Anyone in particular, you think I should ISO?

oh crap I must go and work on my tables

idk really hebi looked scummy in first glance

Didn’t UFO already ISO her?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Like 2 bombs seems a little bit slower and safer imo

So 3 obvtowns pick goo including Sakura and 2 questionable players bomb 2 evenmore questionable players?

it's me + 5 teammates, so it'd be 3 including me and 3 bombs (or 4 including me and 2 bombs if we go with FA's slower sugestion)

Oh right. lol

[Nancy Drew 39]

which has already been established multiple times it can’t

Why it can't happen?!

how did you establish this?!

It's litteraly near certain that a scum with power negation is in the game with titus flip.

No. It’s very likely scum have a power.

It’s unlikely that is power negate due to the townblock not dying and due to Tor getting his check off supposedly. They would have to have holstered three nights in a row for negate. The odds of that are small to infinestimal as noted by others

Makes no sense. why would scum (who had also titus) choose another power over power negate night 2? like how can you assume that? It's WAY more likely that they used power negate with shiro ank kill and holestered last night or used it on stungun to make sure he dies and nothing itefers.

Because Titus is an arrogant scum player who would likely think negate is inherently scummy.

Like this is completely irrational paranoia. It does not make sense.

ocaam razor says there is a power negation in game cause titus was scum. And yes the ability is scummy hence why she hide who got that power. If she wnated them to have a towny power she wouldn't choose a hidden scum for the ability.

You can say she didn't give any power to a scum instead of ank then with that logic but yours is built on moon.

Occam’s Razor says they don’t have it since they killed stun over the townblock.
It says Titus gave power to a scum but not who and not what.
And yes she would. She absolutely would and I have a feeling what.

Occam’s Razor says they have it since titus was leader that night and she wouldn't give the chance to ank to choose a bp in the night she was killing her.
But yeah I need to check night 2 powers again.
Occam’s Razor says they didn't want townblock killed and they shot stungun.

Right because Occam’s Razor says it makes absolutely no sense for Titus to have given Ank a power, if she planned on killing her.

Why wouldn’t scum want to kil inside the townblock and I was heavily townleaning Stun, so wouldn’t he also be considered part of the townblock?

[Toranaga]

so

I believe titus picked precog because she'd otherwise risk outing herself if anyone decided to use mimickry on her.

I believe drixx is always town and was not secretly chosen by titus on n2 because drixx would either use his n2 power (like power negate for instance), or pick something that can be remotely useful as scum instead of impenetrable skin.

wrt ank, if she did get a power and was still killed that night, and titus tried to play the long run, that might mean one of two things: either all the other wolves are highly POE'd down and titus was the only one who could go deep, meaning she'd sacrifice her team, give them nothing, townside the whole game and hopefully snatch a win; or her original list actually has scum in it and there's scum deeply infiltrated in towncore. I'm leaning towards the former because there's no sign that scum actually used any night powers other than the kill, and they seem to be happy keeping me alive with mimickry.

[MathBlade]

so

I believe titus picked precog because she'd otherwise risk outing herself if anyone decided to use mimickry on her.

I believe drixx is always town and was not secretly chosen by titus on n2 because drixx would either use his n2 power (like power negate for instance), or pick something that can be remotely useful as scum instead of impenetrable skin.

wrt ank, if she did get a power and was still killed that night, and titus tried to play the long run, that might mean one of two things: either all the other wolves are highly POE'd down and titus was the only one who could go deep, meaning she'd sacrifice her team, give them nothing, townside the whole game and hopefully snatch a win; or her original list actually has scum in it and there's scum deeply infiltrated in towncore. I'm leaning towards the former because there's no sign that scum actually used any night powers other than the kill, and they seem to be happy keeping me alive with mimickry.

If she got obvTowned it wouldn’t matter.

Secondly it’s hardly a risk. Titus was scummy as fuck there is no way a cop or a mimic checks someone they think scummy. They check the null reads. The townblock only gets checked in cases of extreme paranoia.

Thirdly I agree with that if she did take precog and was honest it’s sll PoE burn.

[Drixx]

This is quite literally the same problem from the day petrification was offered the first time.
Like I do not understand your answer.
A sanity check includes WHY and the rational points of interaction.
Mafia is inherently a game of risk.
There is nothing we can be certain over but I feel the plan I suggested minimizes that risk.

Okay. I'll lay it out as clearly as I can. Please remember that I try and think of the worst possible case, and I also got burned by not being pessimistic enough before.

I actually messed up the math yesterday because the bombs were an extra day further away.

15 alive today. Worst case scenario we get:

Mislynch today, kill tonight. Three bombs go off and are all townies killing townies. That's 8 out of 15 dead leaving us at 4v3 tomorrow once the bombs go off. We

should

win in that case unless you are scum (because even if you leave me alive that long I won't be able to win a 1v1 with you at this point and the whole game would agree with that).

But here's the problem (and the thing I really didn't feel like I should say). We have been

assuming

we know why kills went through on people who had access to BP. It's plausible that our assumptions are correct. It's also possible that there's something in play we're not aware of. I cannot put together a sound premise/conclusion combination for our assumption set.

So let's say that we assign 3 people to get the suicide vest and 2 of them blow up and both they and their targets are town. The third person; however, claims to have attempted to do their blow up and it doesn't happen. At that point we're going to have 9 people alive. So what are the possibilities in that case?

1.) The person is telling the truth and is town. -- We lynch them on the assumption they are lying and they flip green. We are then at 5v3 going into the night. Night kill happens. We have a 4v3 the next day.

So we just lynch the target of that mislynch right?

See the problem yet?

As I said before: I'm not trying to overrule people who have put more time than me into this game. If everyone weighs it and they're good with the plan, then let's get it on.


@Nero - My base asumption at the moment is that scum are outside the generally accepted town block. Given the amount of posts and replacements, I don't think it's possible with the time available to me at the moment for me to go try and go down that rabbit hole, so at the moment (during night phase and as I can now) I'm reassessing the people who are generally accepted as town and making sure I have good reasons to agree with those assessments.

Do you have anyone in particular you want a Drixx take on?

[Drixx]

I believe drixx is always town and was not secretly chosen by titus on n2 because drixx would either use his n2 power (like power negate for instance), or pick something that can be remotely useful as scum instead of impenetrable skin.

Correct conclusion but there's a flawed premise in there. Go reread what Impenetrable Skin does. Then tell me what being targeted by a player with a bomb would be.

[Toranaga]

@math: if titus got obtown'ed that would still matter because she would still be at risk of getting outed by ank

also a mimic isn't a cop, and titus certainly didn't think no one would check her for being too scummy, since she townsided heavily on d3. she certainly planned on going deep or her d3 makes no sense.

[Toranaga]

I believe drixx is always town and was not secretly chosen by titus on n2 because drixx would either use his n2 power (like power negate for instance), or pick something that can be remotely useful as scum instead of impenetrable skin.

Correct conclusion but there's a flawed premise in there. Go reread what Impenetrable Skin does. Then tell me what being targeted by a player with a bomb would be.

there was no bomb on n3. you actually used impenetrable skin that night.

[MathBlade]

This is quite literally the same problem from the day petrification was offered the first time.
Like I do not understand your answer.
A sanity check includes WHY and the rational points of interaction.
Mafia is inherently a game of risk.
There is nothing we can be certain over but I feel the plan I suggested minimizes that risk.

Okay. I'll lay it out as clearly as I can. Please remember that I try and think of the worst possible case, and I also got burned by not being pessimistic enough before.

I actually messed up the math yesterday because the bombs were an extra day further away.

15 alive today. Worst case scenario we get:

Mislynch today, kill tonight. Three bombs go off and are all townies killing townies. That's 8 out of 15 dead leaving us at 4v3 tomorrow once the bombs go off. We

should

win in that case unless you are scum (because even if you leave me alive that long I won't be able to win a 1v1 with you at this point and the whole game would agree with that).

But here's the problem (and the thing I really didn't feel like I should say). We have been

assuming

we know why kills went through on people who had access to BP. It's plausible that our assumptions are correct. It's also possible that there's something in play we're not aware of. I cannot put together a sound premise/conclusion combination for our assumption set.

So let's say that we assign 3 people to get the suicide vest and 2 of them blow up and both they and their targets are town. The third person; however, claims to have attempted to do their blow up and it doesn't happen. At that point we're going to have 9 people alive. So what are the possibilities in that case?

1.) The person is telling the truth and is town. -- We lynch them on the assumption they are lying and they flip green. We are then at 5v3 going into the night. Night kill happens. We have a 4v3 the next day.

So we just lynch the target of that mislynch right?

See the problem yet?

As I said before: I'm not trying to overrule people who have put more time than me into this game. If everyone weighs it and they're good with the plan, then let's get it on.

I see what you’re saying. However I do not feel it as a problem because of the sheer bullshit that would have to be for that to be the case.
1) Creature would have to be town. A point no one is really arguing that not even Creature. He just wants to die.
2) Should someone claim to be negated we look at those two players specifically for that day’s lynch no one is saying lynch blind.
3) If both happen to be town then scum were so far deep the 2/3 lynches and kills would be the same as if it was played out. Scum continue to kill within the lynch pool.
4) We would have to have a scum team consisting of just 3 of FA Sakura you Nancy Tor and Nero. I am comfortable making that bet as very few of the other players are posting. If that is all the scum they deserve it.

@Nero - My base asumption at the moment is that scum are outside the generally accepted town block. Given the amount of posts and replacements, I don't think it's possible with the time available to me at the moment for me to go try and go down that rabbit hole, so at the moment (during night phase and as I can now) I'm reassessing the people who are generally accepted as town and making sure I have good reasons to agree with those assessments.

Do you have anyone in particular you want a Drixx take on?

[Nancy Drew 39]

I have a hunch that Titus forced a precog believing she would live until Day Three.

This makes sense with some of the reactions from the lynchpool as powers have come up.
I am not a threat as they would have already had it so exposing it to the town when they already know what is coming is just making me waste a power. Then they can try to manipulate my reads versus that.

I don’t think they expected the worst’s suggestion though which makes me no longer the best kill but instead obvTowns in the lynchpool which explains the stun kill last night.

My hunch is scum have precog not power negate. So Titus could try to be one step ahead.

But when scum lost their mastermind they were fucked.

Oh there were 6 powers? I forgot about precognition. But if Titus didn’t think she’d get mislynched, then why would she have her hidden scumpal take Precog? I’m thinking while Weather is a possibility, the absence of only 1 kill per night, makes that less likely but I suppose they could be holstering it. What I’m thinking is maybe they picked duplication and never used it and are waiting to surprise town with it at LYLO.

[MathBlade]

@math: if titus got obtown'ed that would still matter because she would still be at risk of getting outed by ank

also a mimic isn't a cop, and titus certainly didn't think no one would check her for being too scummy, since she townsided heavily on d3. she certainly planned on going deep or her d3 makes no sense.

Fair enough.

[Nancy Drew 39]

It also explains her flailing so fucking hard

She wanted the info to manipulate us like pawns.

However scum lack a mastermind and a power negate more than likely due to her arrogance.

You really think scum is failing too because it doesn’t look like it to me?