Mini Normal 2102: Mafia à la Mode! (Game Complete)

[Plum]

Votecount 5.4

Skellen

- 3 (bob3141, benhalkum, Almost50)

Almost50

- 2 (Amrun, Skellen)

Not Voting

- 1 (RCEnigma)

With 6 alive it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-11-25 15:00:00)

Notes

Skellen

is V/LA 11/17-11/22.

[bob3141]

From your pov he's scum I'm pretty sure.

??? You saw MY PoV??

Man, I am suspecting AMRUN (MIZZY slot) to have faked their claim in order to never be blocked. That's why the RB was never shot at. Now a No-Kill gambit works perfectly because the blocked player is NEVER Amrun anyway. That's my theory. And looking back at D1 I said either Mizzy OR bob. They canNOT be scum together. So, I am thinking Skellen + Amrun here, and -ironically- they're the two voting me right now. It's like a reverse OMGUS. I can see how it may look like I am SRing those who vote me, except it's been on record that I SR them from before AND that I am still going by my propositions from Days 1/2.

Now tell me about my own PoV that should make me SR bob here.

But why would scum make a claim when they know they would be locked with a town power role that onyl gets stronger as the days go by. It migth avoid nk roleblocks but if they get dropped to one scum. Although i might be able to stop the nk i still produce clears each night.

[bob3141]

And why would mizzy/amrum not perform a night kill night 5. For amrum to be scum he has to be scum with either you or skellen. Any false guility from scum not peforming a night kill has an equal chance to infact fall on the scum partner. As for you to be town a50, skellen must be scum. So from you POV what is the advantage of scum amrum not making a NK when it might simply have rb his partner anyway

[Almost50]

So far yo9u produced no clears, did you? And besides we're in MyLO now anyway. One mislynch + tonight's NK is all it takes for the game to be over. Hell, even if we lynch scum we would be in MyLo again tomorrow. All that aside.. people are still SRing you, so you could be mislynched tomorrow still.

As for the specific reason why they no killed on N5, I'll only be able to tell you that when the scum PT is released. I currently have no access to it, so I don't know how their minds work.

[bob3141]

What i was pointing out is that a nigth 5 kill leaves it 2 scum and 5 town. So if scum can get mislynch to go through they win. However, with 6 left alive a mislynch result it infact goes to night. Which gives me 50% chance of stopping any nigth kill. As from my pov if we mislynched in a50, skellen and amrum it would be obvouse who is scum and i would have 50% of picking teh one with teh night kill.

Thus no advantage to scum not perform a kill during nigth 5. First they would 50% chance of simply facing a false guilty and if I rb one of teh 3 who isnt scum. Then still 50% chance of pulling the game back from defeat. Confirming myself and getting hard guilty. Causing scum to be lynched and the last scum to be rb.

So even if i were to get false guility scum would only have 50% win chance on the 50% chance of me getting false guilty. So then that leaves teh question whats better a scum kill on player like RCE who they cant even attempt to push. Or a no kill.

[bob3141]

A50 in fact form your POV to be town scum would have had to beleive there position is so bad that a outlier result benifits them. That not killing a player when i cant get a clear is better than risking a) scum lynch due to false guility or b) a mislynch that has 50% chance of losing the game or winning teh game for scum.

[bob3141]

VOTE: A50

[Almost50]

You're forgetting it's theoretically harder to lynch scum in even numbered players than it is in odd numbered players. Even numbers always benefit scum over town, statistically speaking.

[Almost50]

Oh, well.. your choice then.

VOTE: A50

This works well too.

[Almost50]

Now wait till you see my flip, and then tell me you have a chance to stop the kill.

[bob3141]

So what role are you

[Almost50]

You will find out soon enough. Now lynch ben

[bob3141]

Are you saying your lynch disables my role

[Plum]

Votecount 5.5

Skellen

- 1 (benhalkum)

Almost50

- 4 (Amrun, Skellen, bob3141, Almost50)

Not Voting

- 1 (RCEnigma)

With 6 alive 4 votes achieves a lynch. Scene follows.

[Plum]

Day 5 Lynch

Almost50

,

Mafia Roleblocker Enabler

, was lynched Day 5!

Night 5 deadline: (expired on 2019-11-23 20:00:00)

[Plum]

Night 5 Resolution

bob3141

,

Town Roleblocker

, died Night 5!

With 4 alive it's 3 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-12-03 20:00:00)

[Amrun]

Well, I protected bob and then changed my mind last minute to Ben because of WIFOM.

I was worried bobscum would just kill me then say I must have protected him since A50 self hammered and didn’t give me a chance to say.

[Amrun]

I need to seriously sit down with this game and re-evaluate.

[benhalkum]

VOTE: Skellen

With A50 gone, it’s time to wrap this one up.

[Amrun]

My tinfoil hat is worried about RCE.

But I think, statistics wise, Skellen is the best bet because bob is confirmed now.

I’m actually pretty glad I let him die... ironically.

[Skellen]

God, I suck. It's one of these games that you would just hope to end so that you can't make any more terrible decisions. So one of my strong townreads is wrong.

Going to reset my reads and reread the game then I guess.

[Skellen]

Some unstructured first thoughts before I do that though.

It's interesting that all ungated PRs are linked to an Enabler. Just the Bodyguard is not limited in any way, unless you consider the mechanic that he dies if he targets the right person as a limit. Then again I am a bit careful with the Tracker Enabler as I don't really see his purpose here considering that the Tracker was in the end a pretty weak role which was only there to confirm other PRs and their movements.

On first thought I am at a PoE of Amrun/ben. I think RCE is town, even although his underwhelming lylo play yesterday made me a bit wary. It's for two major reasons.

1. bob's thinking was pretty good when he blocked RCE after Pret's lynch as scum!RCE was after that in a pretty good spot to carry all kills out without getting blocked. Normally. They could have anticipated that bob would do such a turn and block RCE, but I consider that as pretty unlikely. And I don't see why A50 would carry out the kills over scum!RCE.

2. RCE didn't hammered me yesterday when he easily had the chance to do so. He couldn't have quickhammered me like A50 did on LUV, that would have made him suspicious, but he should have gotten around doing so without sticking out. RCE was literally the only one who could afford to mislynch me as scum, because as bob said himself, if I would have flipped town he would have blocked either A50 or Amrun thus having a 50% chance to block the last nk. For RCE there was no reason to avoid my lynch as bob didn't suspected him, particlarly because bob already blocked him anyway in N3. So RCE could have mislynched me and carried out the last nk to win the game, there was no reason to stall the game for scum!RCE. Only flaw in this argument is that it could be that RCE planned to come around hammering me in a long-winded way after some interactions with A50, but then bob spontaneously decided to switch from me to A50. However the RCE/A50 interactions yesterday feel like RCE would have settled on A50 anyway.

No idea between Amrun and ben yet. In any case there would be some serious bussing involved. ben tunneled Pret for three days and both Pret and A50 pushed for a ben lynch on D2 when they both themselves were already up with three votes. Also the ben wagon got derailed by town and the revived Saladman wagon also came from town. Unless they thought one of them would die anyway so they decided to do some serious distancing.
Mizzy would have bussed A50 on D2, going by A50's role that's actually something you can afford to do as in case of a lynch you would get both towncred and neutralize the Roleblocker.

[Skellen]

@RCE:
I remember you said yesterday or on D4 that you are ruling out Pret/Amrun for specific interactions. Can you point these out?

[Skellen]

VOTE: Skellen

With A50 gone, it’s time to wrap this one up.

How about we try to look at the whole picture?

Ironically both A50's role and the fact that bob blocked me in N2 should make me more likely town than scum. At least it semi-confirms that scum actually no killed in N2.

[Amrun]

My tinfoil says the roleblocker enabler was scum so maybe the tracker enabler is too.

BG would never need one; someone still dies.