White Flag - TM2020

Begins January 2nd, 2020
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Post Post #2913 (isolation #400) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:33 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2907, Auro wrote:Dann is town. If he's scum, I'm fine letting him win this game.
In post 2911, Dannflor wrote:Auro is my strongest town read right now

and I think probably the clearest voice of reason

of course this reaffirmation is just gonna further the Dann/Auro case but whatever lol
Lol

Also, I'm liking Molla much more rn
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Post Post #2920 (isolation #401) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:35 pm

Post by Auro »

No one gets to L-1 now, I want 0 risk of derphammers.
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Post Post #2928 (isolation #402) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:39 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2919, Dannflor wrote:I'm actually leaning towards an FF lynch
Why FF?
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Post Post #2941 (isolation #403) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:43 pm

Post by Auro »

viewtopic.php?p=10151634#p10151634

The only other time Cheeky ever self-voted, from my search.
She was wolf :P
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Post Post #2946 (isolation #404) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:46 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2814, Auro wrote:
In post 2810, CheekyTeeky wrote:Because Ceph would have worked out why he was at lylo, is harder to sway, and he looked like the towniest player in the game to you two because you're both scum parading too well as town that it looks super bad that neither of you are dead yet the sarcastic non-contributor who you both townread is dead.

I'm not answering another question about why wouldn't you do xyz as scum because this is beyond pointless. Tell me why gobbles is -still- scum.
It's pretty objectively clear you'd be harder to "sway". Ceph
literally
said Dann can win if he's scum. Meanwhile, you were
constantly
voicing an {Auro+Dann} paranoia.
In post 2811, CheekyTeeky wrote:Your tunnel is unnatural. You have not hesitated on gobbles since day 2. You must have a scumclaim if some kind to ignore all information since.
Okay, let's do your exercise. I was pushing {Molla+Gobbles} since D2. What new information have we gotten since then?

D2 Lynch, Espeonage Town
: Who I townread then anyway, and didn't have much legitimate input himself.
N2 Kill, Dunnstral Town
: Who I was townreading, with a little bit of paranoia; whose reads weren't inconsistent with my push.
D3 Lynch, Hopkirk Town
: Who I townread and tried to fight a lynch off of.
N3 Kill, Cephrir Town
: Who I townread, and who had Dong, FF, and Gobbles at the bottom of his reads list. ()
I have not been Night Killed
: Which seems like a perfectly valid strategy for scum!Gobbles to follow.

Now,
which
piece of information must be enough basis for re-evaluation?
CheekyTeeky wrote:Oh and Ceph was never getting lynched while you're attempting to lead the town. Whereas theres a fantastic case for cheeky/FF or cheeky/gobbles you can both push now.
And we care why? With only two slots from {FF, Gobbles, Dong, Molla} to lynch from to win the game, the attainability of a lynch outside that pool is far less important than the chances of pocketing them.
@Cheeky, seeking answers to the re-evaluation bit.
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Post Post #2947 (isolation #405) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:46 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2945, CheekyTeeky wrote:Also FTR I've self-voted plenty as town but that's not the case here
Link games pls. I think mafiascum search is bad.
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Post Post #2958 (isolation #406) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:54 pm

Post by Auro »

I don't understand why you're reacting this way to suspicion on you. You guys have been making some pretty bad pushes on me (from my perspective anyway) and I haven't resorted to AtE self-votes, right?
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Post Post #2961 (isolation #407) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:55 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2946, Auro wrote:@Cheeky, seeking answers to the re-evaluation bit
Or admit that my "unnatural tunnel" wasn't an unnatural tunnel.
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Post Post #2962 (isolation #408) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:57 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2960, CheekyTeeky wrote:my lynch is actually optimal for town. If I get to lylo it's game over.
Quick math. If you're town, and you lynch randomly,

Chances of winning if you're not lynched: 66%
Chances of winning if you're lynched: 40%

Over wanting to be lynched, a random strategy has better odds.
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Post Post #2964 (isolation #409) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:59 pm

Post by Auro »

And slightly <50% if you consider yourself an equal lynch D6; still more than 40%.
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Post Post #2966 (isolation #410) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:00 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2963, CheekyTeeky wrote:Still doesn't feel natural
Yes, so give me *one* reason for why I had to reevaluate at some point. Any piece of information.

It was me shouting Gob scum while you guys were lynching town, why would you expect me to not continue thinking Gob was scum?
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Post Post #2967 (isolation #411) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:01 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2965, CheekyTeeky wrote:Can you stop? This theory shit is really annoying and irrelevant
Self-voting and asking to be lynched is annoying and bad townplay.

And no, if I can plug in math theory anywhere I'm doing it. :P
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Post Post #2970 (isolation #412) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:04 pm

Post by Auro »

So you trust the rest of town to take a 2/5 chance tomorrow without you?
Why not just push one of them today?
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Post Post #2972 (isolation #413) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:05 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2969, CheekyTeeky wrote:You've been plugging detached theory all game. It's always irrelevant
Naa it's fun. And in this case, is showing that you shouldn't self-vote as town.
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Post Post #2975 (isolation #414) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:07 pm

Post by Auro »

You could go for Dann's partner.
Oh wait, you think it's me still?
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Post Post #2977 (isolation #415) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:08 pm

Post by Auro »

Reminder to the game not to lynch her now. We're gonna make Gob/FF talk first, get clearer on Dong first.

@Cheeky: Why Dann over me?
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Post Post #2979 (isolation #416) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:15 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, I'm heavily interested in your teammates' individual reads.
Additionally, please paraphrase your team PT discussions as detailed as possible.
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Post Post #2990 (isolation #417) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:27 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2982, CheekyTeeky wrote:Dann your solves are BS, like how did you even end up voting Hop?
Who was the L-1 vote on Hop?
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Post Post #2991 (isolation #418) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:28 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2983, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 2979, Auro wrote:Cheeky, I'm heavily interested in your teammates' individual reads.
Additionally, please paraphrase your team PT discussions as detailed as possible.
Kiss my ass.
Na.

I see little reason for you to refuse this. If town, bad.
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Post Post #2993 (isolation #419) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:31 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2987, CheekyTeeky wrote:Sigh. Just let gobbles speak and you'll see.
Gobbles has spoken. His premise is that the night kills were in "second tier townreads" therefore scum must be in "first tier townreads".

That's not an obvtown perspective.
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Post Post #3004 (isolation #420) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:47 pm

Post by Auro »

FF, please ask Reundo about that solve. Specifically, if he agrees with your case for the same reasoning.
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Post Post #3010 (isolation #421) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:01 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3006, Formerfish wrote:Umm... this is you saying i should be lynched today right after the day started.

Youve been pushing me most of the game and wont get off my dick.
Quote me. I said if {Auro+Dann} was the team, we'd NK cheeky and then lynch you.
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Post Post #3016 (isolation #422) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:05 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3007, Formerfish wrote:This is slimy as shit too. You are acting like you've played a superior game and have been bleeding town this whole time when you are pplaying just as bad as we are.
I am indeed playing a superior game. I'm not the one positing horrible paranoia pushes based on wild NK theories and dumb premises such as "scum want to be controlling so active players are scum".

You were close to lynch D1 and I townread you then; my interactions with you helped at least to some degree to shift the wagon off. I said NSG lynch was better at that point. She flipped scum.

I townread KittyMo, and she flipped town.

I said Esp was towny late D2. I was correct about that.

I was somewhat paranoid about Dunn, but not even close to want to lynch him; he flipped town.

I defended Hopkirk throughout D3 and strongly so. He flipped town.

I called Cephrir obvtown. He flipped town.


All my reads about the flips so far have been correct.
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Post Post #3019 (isolation #423) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:07 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3015, Formerfish wrote:
In post 2788, Auro wrote:And a Cheeky lynch makes it real easy to
simply lynch FF today.
A Cheeky night kill* makes it real easy (for scum!Dann/Auro) to simply lynch FF today (as she had gone after him at end of D3).

You realize there's a conditional there right? The constant "lynch gobble" posts from me in the same day so nothing for you?
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Post Post #3021 (isolation #424) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:08 pm

Post by Auro »

Wow. I'm arguing a hypothetical which I'd pursue as scum, you cherry pick the "lynch FF" part of it and say I'm pushing that?

This is even dumber than Dong's shit, and I can't excuse this here.

Please tell me whether Reundo agrees with your reasoning.
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Post Post #3024 (isolation #425) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3022, Formerfish wrote:What are you talking about? Cheeky made it very clear she was coming for my head today after what happened yesterday. Why wouldnt i have taken out at least 1 person calling for my head on a pike?
Cool. So if Cheeky died at night, that would make it easy to call you scum and go for your lynch, yeah? So if I was scum, I could kill Cheeky, and then claim that you're scum who killed someone calling for your head on a pike, and this would be a legitimate push, yeah?

>Scum!AuroDann kills Cheeky and pushes FF lynch

That's the only assertion I made in the post.
That doesn't mean I *am* going for your head. It's a hypothetical about where I'm scum.
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Post Post #3025 (isolation #426) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:13 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3023, Formerfish wrote:Why are you so dependent on people who arent in this game? Are you hoping to be saved by one of our teammates?
No, but because I can conclude that you're scum if Reundo agrees with your reasoning. Think of it as a rational BoP on Reundo.
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Post Post #3028 (isolation #427) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:19 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3024, Auro wrote:
In post 3022, Formerfish wrote:What are you talking about? Cheeky made it very clear she was coming for my head today after what happened yesterday. Why wouldnt i have taken out at least 1 person calling for my head on a pike?
Cool. So if Cheeky died at night, that would make it easy to call you scum and go for your lynch, yeah? So if I was scum, I could kill Cheeky, and then claim that you're scum who killed someone calling for your head on a pike, and this would be a legitimate push, yeah?

>Scum!AuroDann kills Cheeky and pushes FF lynch

That's the only assertion I made in the post.
That doesn't mean I *am* going for your head. It's a hypothetical about where I'm scum.
I think I'll spell this out in easier words. My implied argument was:

1. Consider scum are Auro+Dann.
2. Consider the hypothetical where Auro+Dann NK Cheeky.
3. Auro+Dann would be pushing FF after NK'ing Cheeky.
4. (3) is an easy win path.
5. Cephrir locktowned Dann and townread Auro.
6. NK'ing Cephrir and hoping to wifom is a poor strategy.
7. Given the dominant strat in (3), this is good evidence in favor of ruling out Auro+Dann.

I don't care if you disagree with the argument. No part of the argument implies that I wanted your lynch today. This is because I'm firstly not scum, and Cheeky wasn't the NK.

"In a hypothetical world X where I am scum, doing Y makes it easy to simply go for an FF lynch"

This is not the same as "I want to simply lynch FF now".

Do you get the difference?
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Post Post #3029 (isolation #428) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:20 pm

Post by Auro »

Please unvote. Use hurt tags like Dann if you want.
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Post Post #3031 (isolation #429) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:23 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2431, Cephrir wrote:
In post 2426, CheekyTeeky wrote:What do your reads look like Cephrir?
They havent changed in a while because I am not invested.

Town

Cheeky
Dann
Auro
BB
Dong???
FF
Turkey
Hopkirk

Untown

I'm doing a really bad job of caring about flips and recent info and, well, the game
I have quoted Cephrir's latest post where you were mentioned. Hopkirk flipped town, which means you were the second scummiest candidate after Gob.

I have offered proof that Ceph scumread you.

Either agree with this, or prove otherwise.
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Post Post #3033 (isolation #430) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:26 pm

Post by Auro »

Tell me why that's a bad request, and especially why it's a scummy one.
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Post Post #3035 (isolation #431) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:28 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3025, Auro wrote:
In post 3023, Formerfish wrote:Why are you so dependent on people who arent in this game? Are you hoping to be saved by one of our teammates?
No, but because I can conclude that you're scum if Reundo agrees with your reasoning. Think of it as a rational BoP on Reundo.
Reundo doesn't need to read the game. Simply tell him your case and ask him to evaluate it. I'm sure he'd be fine giving a few minutes.
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Post Post #3038 (isolation #432) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:33 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3034, Formerfish wrote:So its ok for you as scum to set me up by killing someone scum reading me, but me saying that the people who died were tring me and could defend me if alive still is baseless wifom?
It's not "ok", it's a valid strategy for me to have pursued, by your own admission (that a cheeky NK paints a target on your back).

Saying that people who died TR'd you is firstly incorrect, and the argument loses strength when the reasons they died are pretty obvious: that they were obvious town, not for reads. Dunn was going for Esp+Hop and both were town.

Also, this is a false equivalence. You were saying I'm scum for wanting your lynch today and all game. I've disproved the former; and you lack evidence for the latter.

You're resorting to whataboutery when I present evidence against your arguments. Treat them separately; agree that your case on me was incorrect, and we can then look into my pushes on your posts.
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Post Post #3039 (isolation #433) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:34 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3036, Formerfish wrote:Thats assuming that my team is invested as yours apparently is in this game. I guess I dont need as much of a crutch
Don't need Reundo to be invested. Just show him your recent posts/case, and ask him to evaluate it on its own merit. Surely he can have some judgment about how strong the case is without having to have read the entire game.
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Post Post #3042 (isolation #434) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:37 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3037, Formerfish wrote:Because when you dont get an answer you like in here you make us appeal to our teammates. Its like when you get a no from mom and you go to dad knowing he is going to say yes.

We are the ones playing this game. We are the ones who have read every post and know all the nuances of the slots relationships.

You're asking us to reach out to a disinterested to semi-interested partner who hasnt read everything and is going to have a lower starting base of knowledge in hopes that they tr you and can call us off you.
No, I don't care about their reads on me. I'm asking so *I* can have a more confident read on you.

Teammates can still have opinions without being terribly invested in the game.

And those opinions are readable, since they share your alignment.
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Post Post #3043 (isolation #435) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:38 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3040, Formerfish wrote:Except im not going to ask him because weve done this dance once already and I dont wanna waste a song on my dance card with someone who stepped on my toes before.
This makes zero sense; he's literally your teammate, and the ask is very simple and very little time consuming.
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Post Post #3046 (isolation #436) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:40 pm

Post by Auro »

Please do. I don't know if bad reasoning makes you scum, but I can apply that BoP to Reundo. :P
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Post Post #3048 (isolation #437) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:43 pm

Post by Auro »

Or, mom could be irrational as both scum and town, whereas I know dad's only going to be irrational as scum; so instead of trying to read mom and dad on mom's words, I'll read them by dad's words.
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Post Post #3051 (isolation #438) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:48 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3047, Formerfish wrote:I go to my team pt and ask the question and come back and tell you that Reundo thinks that im a moron and my reasoning is shit, but its my game so do me.
Yes, then I do not conclude you're scum straight away. You now have a trustworthy town voice (partner) telling you your reasoning is shit. I'd then see whether you reevaluate based on this information, and how you will.
Formerfish wrote:Aww... are you calling me irrational?
Your pushes were irrational, and I don't know if you're irrational as a person. (Mom *could* be irrational as scum/town). When I say "bad/shitty/horrible" reasoning, I mean irrational reasoning.
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Post Post #3052 (isolation #439) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:50 pm

Post by Auro »

Reminder that FF put me at L-2. Scum can easily pile on and derp hammer again. FF should know this.
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Post Post #3053 (isolation #440) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:54 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3031, Auro wrote:I have quoted Cephrir's latest post where you were mentioned. Hopkirk flipped town, which means you were the second scummiest candidate after Gob.

I have offered proof that Ceph scumread you.

Either agree with this, or prove otherwise.
FF, you're pretty silent about this. So is that agreement that Ceph didn't townread you?
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Post Post #3054 (isolation #441) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:57 pm

Post by Auro »

Spoiler:
In post 1153, KittyMo wrote:
@Formerfish
In post 870, KittyMo wrote:
In post 528, Formerfish wrote:I took Gobs 344 way differently than you did. I'll wait for Gob to chime in before I give my 2 cents though.
Is now a good time for this? In his current absence I'm pondering that the early rudeness with you two may have been theater. :b
Still pending.




I've just gone through a full multi-iso of you/Cheeky/wgeurts. This entire post is going to about you and I am going to do my best to make it not a nightmare to read.

Auro/Dann/Dunn/Dong/Hop all go after you a bit for your early posts, which I don't think was especially deserved except I guess by PoE, what you were doing was fine for page 2.

Looking at the big catch-up: far from IIOA, content is there. There's good things, some less good things. Hopkirk townread has the least established progression in your posts.

Spoiler:
In post 365, Formerfish wrote:
In post 346, Dunnstral wrote:Gobble is the scummiest player at this point in the game.
In post 346, Dunnstral wrote:If you have meta info on scum NSG you should share it, I don't know what you are talking about.

VOTE: Formerfish
Gob is the scummiest player to Dunn. Gob claims to have info on NSG that makes her scum. Dunn votes me while asking his biggest scum read what makes NSG scum. That totally makes sense.

At this point Brad stood up from his computer and went into the kitchen. In the back of the cabinet there was a bottle that had grown a bit dusty over time. Some ol' kentucky rye whiskey sloshed in the bottle as it was removed from its forgotten home. See the only time that Brad ever drinks from this bottle is when he has read something that makes his head literally hurt. Brad used to go the hospital in the past when things like this happened. He would explain how he felt and the doctors and nurses would listen and they would run some tests. All of those actions were in vain as what Brad was suffering from was not something that could be deduced by any tests known to man. Brad was suffering from an allergy to other people and the things that they say that make no sense at all. Brad has been doing good, staying on the right path, avoiding politics and any discussions of religion. Playing Mafia was playing with fire though, and deep down Brad always knew that this would be the ending given enough time. Well what the hell, I know the medication says not to drink with it, but thats just a suggestion right?

This is by far your weirdest take. You have totally lost the nuance here that Gobble was gone for fucking ages, and that Dunn in the same catch-up style you are literally doing yourself, comments on the re-entrance and then ends up flipping his vote to you. This looks like a clapback for moving onto you. Because if what you quoted is the entire progression, that's probably worth digging into more than it seems like you ever do. But somehow you've gone to the effort of cutting up the quote to narrate it like this without analysing the situation fully. If this is your honest reaction to the post than frankly I don't get why you don't suspect Dunn more from it.
In post 417, Formerfish wrote:[snip]

And its cool man, i do better in figuring people out by talking to them in real time because they have less time to try and figure out angels and you get more honest answers. If you hunt differently, then do you.
This kind of makes me feel worse about your manner of posting today (as in when I'm writing this post). Because I feel like there was a lot of thread activity to dig into and I don't feel the energy of you suddenly having more of a real-time opportunity than you usually have in the game.
In post 614, Formerfish wrote:
In post 610, Hopkirk wrote:oh i see what you mean, you made those shorter posts while that one was in draft. That makes sense

Hop 'Hopenhop' Hop

Aaaaaayyy, he got there.

And I'll answer CT here as well. Your slot dropped off because when I read the thread in one go i liked that slot, then i realized how dormant it went after bitching at someone for saying they might not give 100% attention to this game.

CT, did you iso me, because if you did you would have seen the post i made about why my read changed on geurts and why he went from a townleanish to a scumlean.

Thats why i said you had a whole to climb out of as soon as you came into the thread.

I feel like both arguments Hoppy and CT are using against me are bad premises because they either missed info crucial to their basis or they ignored something i totally said.
They're bad premises, but are they scummy ones? I feel like addressing it as a pattern that is happening against you is the more defensive and less productive angle to take. Rather than looking at the motivation behind them individually. And while the full explanation of his wgeurts slot read is prompted by Cheeky, it doesn't sit that well with me. Acknowledging that Hopkirk misunderstood you and now says you "make sense" but still writing him out as arguing against you with a "bad premise" is sorta odd shade toward an apparent townread while Cheeky was scummier for you. Overall, just a tonally weird post.

Spoiler: NSG stuff
In post 820, Formerfish wrote:I was going to wall again, but Im high and feel a little wordy and like things might not flow if i bunched everything together. Enjoy this next few hours postings.
In post 759, Dannflor wrote:despite what I've said I don't actually want to lynch nsg day 1, I was just hoping wagoning her would be effective in getting her to play and ehhhhhh
I've been thinking about this a little bit. If NSGs team is pulling her to other games where they need help do you think that they would do that with her as scum or as town? If she is scum then wouldn't her team make shes in here making noise so she doesnt take this heat? If she is town then they probably assume that they can borrow her for the time being with the idea that she can come in here and town it up when she needs to.

This is all kinda working under the idea that we are incapable of finding scum on our own and that we need her to come save us.

I think that we have a good deal of info going into this first lynch and that we will have a better understanding of the game state when we see a few flips.
In post 834, Formerfish wrote:
In post 824, Auro wrote:
In post 820, Formerfish wrote:If she is scum then wouldn't her team make shes in here making noise so she doesnt take this heat? If she is town then they probably assume that they can borrow her for the time being with the idea that she can come in here and town it up when she needs to.
I've addressed this.
If she's scum she'd be held accountable for her pushes, she'd take heat for driving a mislynch.
If she's town she's a prime target for a N1 kill, meaning she'd want to have some impact on the game - making her refusal to play D1 strange.
I dunno, I think there is a good chance that if she really thinks shes going to die tonight that maybe her not doing anything d1 is a decent strategy.

Think about it. If she try-hards today and comes up with a bunch of solid reads, it almost certainly seals her fate tonight. And then we move on and who really listens to dead people when they die?

If she lays low and lets us progress the game scum is going to be forced to make a choice between taking out a vocal town leader from today, or NSG who could potentially be a leader in the future. This gives her the best chance to get to d2 as town imo.

I complained about this in my team discord back when it happened, which launched into a bit of a convo about what that meant in terms of TvS/SvS etc., from that noticed you'd made a point of saying you didn't know NSG well multiple times earlier. I'm not entirely sure this is a logical following from your earlier expressed thoughts on her including that.

That aside, you've 'been thinking' about it and have these long paragraphs that reflect... the level 1 base interpretation of accepting NSG's premises... My personal viewpoint is that this is a WIFOM argument that is being presented as though the rest of us somehow didn't consider it. I definitely didn't like this, how much of that is differences in perspective is something I'm unsure of.

Spoiler: Problematic progression?
In post 976, CheekyTeeky wrote:FF has been tiptoeing around what could be deemed the strong town players Dunn, Dann, Kitty and town reading the not so towny people. When he decided to attack Dann he was constantly throwing shade and acting like he was reassessing but he wasn't, he left dann in his scum reads after saying he felt better. His jump on the Auro wagon was opportunistic, ceasing on the game trajectory that was running in his favour. These are the main points I'll be elaborating on.

FF is interacting with Dunn in a way that feels like he's trying to stay under the radar. It's what and who he's picking and choosing to respond to. You're not giving his town game enough credit if you think this is it.
In post 1027, Formerfish wrote:Cheeky I don't know if you're looking for a formal invite for us to interact, cause I'm not sure why you are unable to ask me whatever you wanna talk about.

Like I said go read my iso and to come back with questions about my reads or anything you wanted to talk about, did I miss a response to that or are you still just trying to compare my play here to how I play as an SE in newbie games?

This is a very different game for many reasons. First of all I have 3 other players looking at the game and giving their takes and opinions on people so I dont have to do all my hunting here since I have some good fucking partners helping me there. Second, the last time i did a TM i played horribly and Im trying to not repeat that performance. Third, sue me If I wanna take this game a little more serious since im having some issues with inadequacy on site and maybe if I actually play well here and show people im not some chuckle fuck that ill feel better.

I can go back to shotgunning anything that moves if you really want me to, but I think that time is gone in this game and you missed it. We are here now and you wanna talk but whenever you talk to me it doesnt seem like you are talking about what you want to talk about.
In post 1042, Formerfish wrote:I will hang Dann or Auro right now, CT maybe her arguments against me feel very contrived, but she claims a case is coming, so...

I dunno if you missed this specific post, but given she did make the beginnings of a case there, the meta bit is not the important thing to be focusing on. Not that I don't agree that you playing differently in Team Mafia than a newbie game doesn't make sense, it's just also pretty NAI.
In post 852, Formerfish wrote:
In post 850, Auro wrote:Quote the multiple people explaining why it's anti-town.
People don't need to explain things to your liking for it to be true, your role pm dictated that long before you opened your mouth and let us all see which color you got as clearly as you did when you opened the pm.
I have two shoulder angels in this game, and the one that doesn't like you was put off by you in real-time this 1v1 argument. From a theory standpoint I side with you, and yet what made me facepalm was not that I felt Auro was being disingenuous, it was him being seemingly so genuinely obstinate for the umpteenth time despite me not agreeing. But the bigger issue is that I don't know if I see this as you genuinely becoming more convinced he's scum, or that that tracks onto how you came back to the thread afterward. Like, you've clarified you prefer Auro/Dann/Dong lynches. But your re-entrance is very...calm toward those people, main reaction to goings-on is that Dunn is the "sane one."

Anyway: These are my concerns about you, feel free to clear any of them up.


Hell, here's KittyMo's latest post relating to her read on you. A giant wall of concerns.

Feel free to quote a more recent post of hers where she townread you. Maybe I missed it.
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Post Post #3055 (isolation #442) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:49 pm

Post by Auro »

Spoiler: Kitty's Massive FF Concern Post, her spoilers removed
In post 1153, KittyMo wrote:
@Formerfish
In post 870, KittyMo wrote:
In post 528, Formerfish wrote:I took Gobs 344 way differently than you did. I'll wait for Gob to chime in before I give my 2 cents though.
Is now a good time for this? In his current absence I'm pondering that the early rudeness with you two may have been theater. :b
Still pending.




I've just gone through a full multi-iso of you/Cheeky/wgeurts. This entire post is going to about you and I am going to do my best to make it not a nightmare to read.

Auro/Dann/Dunn/Dong/Hop all go after you a bit for your early posts, which I don't think was especially deserved except I guess by PoE, what you were doing was fine for page 2.

Looking at the big catch-up: far from IIOA, content is there. There's good things, some less good things. Hopkirk townread has the least established progression in your posts.
In post 365, Formerfish wrote:
In post 346, Dunnstral wrote:Gobble is the scummiest player at this point in the game.
In post 346, Dunnstral wrote:If you have meta info on scum NSG you should share it, I don't know what you are talking about.

VOTE: Formerfish
Gob is the scummiest player to Dunn. Gob claims to have info on NSG that makes her scum. Dunn votes me while asking his biggest scum read what makes NSG scum. That totally makes sense.

At this point Brad stood up from his computer and went into the kitchen. In the back of the cabinet there was a bottle that had grown a bit dusty over time. Some ol' kentucky rye whiskey sloshed in the bottle as it was removed from its forgotten home. See the only time that Brad ever drinks from this bottle is when he has read something that makes his head literally hurt. Brad used to go the hospital in the past when things like this happened. He would explain how he felt and the doctors and nurses would listen and they would run some tests. All of those actions were in vain as what Brad was suffering from was not something that could be deduced by any tests known to man. Brad was suffering from an allergy to other people and the things that they say that make no sense at all. Brad has been doing good, staying on the right path, avoiding politics and any discussions of religion. Playing Mafia was playing with fire though, and deep down Brad always knew that this would be the ending given enough time. Well what the hell, I know the medication says not to drink with it, but thats just a suggestion right?
This is by far your weirdest take. You have totally lost the nuance here that Gobble was gone for fucking ages, and that Dunn in the same catch-up style you are literally doing yourself, comments on the re-entrance and then ends up flipping his vote to you. This looks like a clapback for moving onto you. Because if what you quoted is the entire progression, that's probably worth digging into more than it seems like you ever do. But somehow you've gone to the effort of cutting up the quote to narrate it like this without analysing the situation fully. If this is your honest reaction to the post than frankly I don't get why you don't suspect Dunn more from it.
In post 417, Formerfish wrote:[snip]

And its cool man, i do better in figuring people out by talking to them in real time because they have less time to try and figure out angels and you get more honest answers. If you hunt differently, then do you.
This kind of makes me feel worse about your manner of posting today (as in when I'm writing this post). Because I feel like there was a lot of thread activity to dig into and I don't feel the energy of you suddenly having more of a real-time opportunity than you usually have in the game.
In post 614, Formerfish wrote:
In post 610, Hopkirk wrote:oh i see what you mean, you made those shorter posts while that one was in draft. That makes sense

Hop 'Hopenhop' Hop

Aaaaaayyy, he got there.

And I'll answer CT here as well. Your slot dropped off because when I read the thread in one go i liked that slot, then i realized how dormant it went after bitching at someone for saying they might not give 100% attention to this game.

CT, did you iso me, because if you did you would have seen the post i made about why my read changed on geurts and why he went from a townleanish to a scumlean.

Thats why i said you had a whole to climb out of as soon as you came into the thread.

I feel like both arguments Hoppy and CT are using against me are bad premises because they either missed info crucial to their basis or they ignored something i totally said.
They're bad premises, but are they scummy ones? I feel like addressing it as a pattern that is happening against you is the more defensive and less productive angle to take. Rather than looking at the motivation behind them individually. And while the full explanation of his wgeurts slot read is prompted by Cheeky, it doesn't sit that well with me. Acknowledging that Hopkirk misunderstood you and now says you "make sense" but still writing him out as arguing against you with a "bad premise" is sorta odd shade toward an apparent townread while Cheeky was scummier for you. Overall, just a tonally weird post.
In post 820, Formerfish wrote:I was going to wall again, but Im high and feel a little wordy and like things might not flow if i bunched everything together. Enjoy this next few hours postings.
In post 759, Dannflor wrote:despite what I've said I don't actually want to lynch nsg day 1, I was just hoping wagoning her would be effective in getting her to play and ehhhhhh
I've been thinking about this a little bit. If NSGs team is pulling her to other games where they need help do you think that they would do that with her as scum or as town? If she is scum then wouldn't her team make shes in here making noise so she doesnt take this heat? If she is town then they probably assume that they can borrow her for the time being with the idea that she can come in here and town it up when she needs to.

This is all kinda working under the idea that we are incapable of finding scum on our own and that we need her to come save us.

I think that we have a good deal of info going into this first lynch and that we will have a better understanding of the game state when we see a few flips.
In post 834, Formerfish wrote:
In post 824, Auro wrote:
In post 820, Formerfish wrote:If she is scum then wouldn't her team make shes in here making noise so she doesnt take this heat? If she is town then they probably assume that they can borrow her for the time being with the idea that she can come in here and town it up when she needs to.
I've addressed this.
If she's scum she'd be held accountable for her pushes, she'd take heat for driving a mislynch.
If she's town she's a prime target for a N1 kill, meaning she'd want to have some impact on the game - making her refusal to play D1 strange.
I dunno, I think there is a good chance that if she really thinks shes going to die tonight that maybe her not doing anything d1 is a decent strategy.

Think about it. If she try-hards today and comes up with a bunch of solid reads, it almost certainly seals her fate tonight. And then we move on and who really listens to dead people when they die?

If she lays low and lets us progress the game scum is going to be forced to make a choice between taking out a vocal town leader from today, or NSG who could potentially be a leader in the future. This gives her the best chance to get to d2 as town imo.
I complained about this in my team discord back when it happened, which launched into a bit of a convo about what that meant in terms of TvS/SvS etc., from that noticed you'd made a point of saying you didn't know NSG well multiple times earlier. I'm not entirely sure this is a logical following from your earlier expressed thoughts on her including that.

That aside, you've 'been thinking' about it and have these long paragraphs that reflect... the level 1 base interpretation of accepting NSG's premises... My personal viewpoint is that this is a WIFOM argument that is being presented as though the rest of us somehow didn't consider it. I definitely didn't like this, how much of that is differences in perspective is something I'm unsure of.
In post 976, CheekyTeeky wrote:FF has been tiptoeing around what could be deemed the strong town players Dunn, Dann, Kitty and town reading the not so towny people. When he decided to attack Dann he was constantly throwing shade and acting like he was reassessing but he wasn't, he left dann in his scum reads after saying he felt better. His jump on the Auro wagon was opportunistic, ceasing on the game trajectory that was running in his favour. These are the main points I'll be elaborating on.

FF is interacting with Dunn in a way that feels like he's trying to stay under the radar. It's what and who he's picking and choosing to respond to. You're not giving his town game enough credit if you think this is it.
In post 1027, Formerfish wrote:Cheeky I don't know if you're looking for a formal invite for us to interact, cause I'm not sure why you are unable to ask me whatever you wanna talk about.

Like I said go read my iso and to come back with questions about my reads or anything you wanted to talk about, did I miss a response to that or are you still just trying to compare my play here to how I play as an SE in newbie games?

This is a very different game for many reasons. First of all I have 3 other players looking at the game and giving their takes and opinions on people so I dont have to do all my hunting here since I have some good fucking partners helping me there. Second, the last time i did a TM i played horribly and Im trying to not repeat that performance. Third, sue me If I wanna take this game a little more serious since im having some issues with inadequacy on site and maybe if I actually play well here and show people im not some chuckle fuck that ill feel better.

I can go back to shotgunning anything that moves if you really want me to, but I think that time is gone in this game and you missed it. We are here now and you wanna talk but whenever you talk to me it doesnt seem like you are talking about what you want to talk about.
In post 1042, Formerfish wrote:I will hang Dann or Auro right now, CT maybe her arguments against me feel very contrived, but she claims a case is coming, so...
I dunno if you missed this specific post, but given she did make the beginnings of a case there, the meta bit is not the important thing to be focusing on. Not that I don't agree that you playing differently in Team Mafia than a newbie game doesn't make sense, it's just also pretty NAI.
In post 852, Formerfish wrote:
In post 850, Auro wrote:Quote the multiple people explaining why it's anti-town.
People don't need to explain things to your liking for it to be true, your role pm dictated that long before you opened your mouth and let us all see which color you got as clearly as you did when you opened the pm.
I have two shoulder angels in this game, and the one that doesn't like you was put off by you in real-time this 1v1 argument. From a theory standpoint I side with you, and yet what made me facepalm was not that I felt Auro was being disingenuous, it was him being seemingly so genuinely obstinate for the umpteenth time despite me not agreeing. But the bigger issue is that I don't know if I see this as you genuinely becoming more convinced he's scum, or that that tracks onto how you came back to the thread afterward. Like, you've clarified you prefer Auro/Dann/Dong lynches. But your re-entrance is very...calm toward those people, main reaction to goings-on is that Dunn is the "sane one."

Anyway: These are my concerns about you, feel free to clear any of them up.


Let's go through FF's assertions/cases/reasoning from today, along with why they're bad.
  • "Ceph was tring me" ()
    :
    Incorrect
    . Ceph's readslist in has FF only above Gob and Hopkirk, who is town.
  • "Dunn was tring me" ()
    :
    Meh
    . Dunn has FF as part of a "don't want to lynch today" list in . 2/3 of his scumreads flipped town. Dunn doesn't state an explicit TR on FF.
  • "KittyMo was tring me" ()
    :
    Incorrect
    . Kitty's latest post about a direct read on FF is in , spoilered above - a giant wall of concerns on FF, not a townread.
  • "Auro wants to lynch me today" (, )
    :
    Incorrect
    . I was arguing a hypothetical where I'm scum, that I'd NK Cheeky and then push FF. Not that I wanted to lynch FF.
  • "Whoever would block my lynch is dead" ()
    :
    Incorrect
    . Because the NK'd slots didn't townread him. Even the lynched slots didn't - look at , for example.
  • "Auro wants to hear my teammate's opinions as a desperate out" ()
    :
    Incorrect
    . It's so that I can read FF better. I've detailed how it would in . Asking for a teammate's opinion on something is not a legitimate basis for scumreading someone.
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Post Post #3059 (isolation #443) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:55 pm

Post by Auro »

To make FF re-evaluate.
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Post Post #3060 (isolation #444) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:57 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3058, BBmolla wrote:is the point that you think FF is lying about all those things intentionally?
If he decides to be stubborn about these points... then yes?
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Post Post #3063 (isolation #445) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:03 pm

Post by Auro »

It's not "outlogicking". FF's being stubborn about a wrong read based on verifiably wrong premises.
If he continues to be wrong, and he's town, that's a noisy distraction and bad for town.
If he's town, I need him to discard this terrible push and actually focus on gamesolving; so I can townread him easier.
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Post Post #3065 (isolation #446) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:25 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3064, CheekyTeeky wrote:I'm locktowning you for this post
What warrants a locktown in that post?
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Post Post #3067 (isolation #447) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:28 pm

Post by Auro »

Okay; can you explain how?
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Post Post #3070 (isolation #448) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:41 pm

Post by Auro »

Why would he take sole blame for my lynch when there are a lot of other people spouting equally bullshit reasons?
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Post Post #3072 (isolation #449) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:43 pm

Post by Auro »

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=81665&user_select%5 ... &start=200

Cheeky, read this and tell me if you notice a difference from their play this game?
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Post Post #3073 (isolation #450) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:44 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3071, CheekyTeeky wrote:My team is using a lot of ???????? And can you not and wtf type words at me so whatevs.
Is there any specific part of your activity that they're wtf'ing at?
Who would they rather you push, instead?
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Post Post #3075 (isolation #451) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:45 pm

Post by Auro »

As in you don't care about the game? If that's the case, you should consider replacing out.
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Post Post #3078 (isolation #452) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:48 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3076, CheekyTeeky wrote:They're screaming for Dann's head
When you say "they" you mean the entirety of your team? Is there any Dann-ing evidence for him being scum?
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Post Post #3079 (isolation #453) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:51 pm

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What do you gain from refusing to engage? What does town gain?
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Post Post #3082 (isolation #454) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:57 pm

Post by Auro »

I simply don't see Dannscum when I read his posts. I feel the opposite - lots of town equity in lots of his posts. I think you'll understand when I say "dann probs scum" isn't enough for me to sheep you. Can you give me more specifics on why he is?
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Post Post #3083 (isolation #455) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:58 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3081, CheekyTeeky wrote:What has town gained when I have engaged? Like probably nothing so meh.
It did gain a townread on you. If Gob is scum and our engagement causes you to sheep me there, it will have gained a successful scum lynch. Etc.
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Post Post #3084 (isolation #456) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:08 pm

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In post 2545, Dannflor wrote:Currently, something that worries me is if I lead a mislynch today, Cephrir gets NKed (seems to fit the pattern of calm collected townies getting killed, see KittyMo and Dunnstral), and then you lead a mislynch on me. But obviously talking about this in advance probably isn't going to be productive. And it's possible I'm worrying for nothing.
Lol
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Post Post #3087 (isolation #457) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:25 pm

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You've talked about how Dann is scum from the night kills, which I disagree with; and how Auro+Dann is the solve which I know to be false. Since your teammates have been reacting with scumreads to his individual posts, I think that's far more useful to me.

Yes, and Dann knows that where we're at doesn't bode well for him; so wouldn't he take another path if scum?
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Post Post #3089 (isolation #458) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:01 pm

Post by Auro »

Why would you be the obvious LyLo lynch? If you were NK'd, and we lynched Gob, this means [FF, Dong] are still in LyLo. Ceph had both of them as scumreads.

I don't see why killing you, and then lynching two out of [FF/Dong/Gob] is not a plausible approach for scum!Dann.

Was he triggered by your pushing him or by your self-vote/AtE? Given your own teammates got triggered (shouting wtf at you and what not), this doesn't seem scummy to me.
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Post Post #3090 (isolation #459) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:10 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3088, CheekyTeeky wrote:I don't want to lynch gobbles because if he flips town and I'm not NK'd I get lynched we lose.
I'm at L-2 right now. Why would a Gobble townflip make you the next lynch and not me?

Will the same not apply to a Dann townflip to you? I.e. his townflip makes you the next lynch.

Who would you want lynched if Dann flips town?
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Post Post #3097 (isolation #460) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:46 pm

Post by Auro »

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=76150&hilit=Vote%3 ... &start=725

Sadly, this seems to match town!Cheeky more.

@Dann, Gobbles is not happening today. Molla will vote with us; Cheeky, Dong and FF won't. Cheeky's just poor town, but if her vote's locked to herself or you, that's useless. Convincing Dong is near impossible. He and FF will find a million things from my ISO to misinterpret and call me scum; energy spent there is futile.

What would you say to a proposal where one of us is lynched, but *every* other slot promises to lynch our read tomorrow?
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Post Post #3100 (isolation #461) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:06 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3098, CheekyTeeky wrote:Let gobbles talk ffs.
He has zero incentive to. He's been promising stuff forever.

Do you agree to vote Gobbles if he doesn't post, by, say, D-3? I want a guarantee.

@Dann: We can make this fairer by achieving consensus on a scumread and asking them to choose one of us to lynch today, while rest of town promises to flash lynch them in LyLo, no questions asked, and regardless of the NK.
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Post Post #3103 (isolation #462) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:26 am

Post by Auro »

Yes, there's
lots
of strong evidence that Dann's town.
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Post Post #3106 (isolation #463) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:31 am

Post by Auro »

Gobble you're here! Is your VCA post complete?
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Post Post #3107 (isolation #464) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:33 am

Post by Auro »

Gobble, can I expect real-time engagement with you for the next hour, say?
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Post Post #3109 (isolation #465) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:44 am

Post by Auro »

Yes, one tiny question. Did you catch up before you posted , or was that the first thing you said when you came to thread?
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Post Post #3117 (isolation #466) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:58 am

Post by Auro »

Quick color-code mini-VCA;
In post 1167, PenguinPower wrote:Formerfish - 5 (CheekyTeeky,
BBMolla
,
gobbledygook
,
northsidegal
,
Dannflor
)
In post 1523, T-Bone wrote:northsidegal - 7 (
Kittymo
,
Dunnstral
,
gobbledygook
,
BBMolla
,
Dannflor
,
Cephrir
, Dongempire)
In post 2852, gobbledygook wrote:Fish also in my eyes is probably town because NSG was the counterwagon to him
Do you still believe this? FF and NSG wagons had many slots common between them.
And it's believable that this is an NSG bus, no? Her FF vote was half-assed without any case, just said "this is likeliest to hit scum".
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Post Post #3119 (isolation #467) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:00 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3113, gobbledygook wrote:
In post 3103, Auro wrote:Yes, there's
lots
of strong evidence that Dann's town.
Have you already explained this in your iso?
Maybe in parts. But I don't expect good-faith engagement from Cheeky, and Dong/FF will only contribute more noise and call me a Dann buddy for it, so I didn't bother. Once I clear my concerns about you, I'd be happy to discuss.
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Post Post #3122 (isolation #468) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:07 am

Post by Auro »

You'll find that FF was absent between his BB vote (when BB was wagoned) and the final lynch. He did indeed vote NSG in .
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Post Post #3123 (isolation #469) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:08 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3121, gobbledygook wrote:I don’t get why we can’t discuss it and just ignore the others
I'll be happy to; just that it isn't my priority to discuss with you for now.
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Post Post #3126 (isolation #470) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:23 am

Post by Auro »

Formerfish Wagon: CheekyTeeky, BBMolla, gobbledygook,
northsidegal
, Dannflor, (Auro)
Molla Wagon: CheekyTeeky, Dann,
Cephrir
, FormerFish, Dong
D1-NSG: Auro, FormerFish, CheekyTeeky,
Espeonage
,
Hopkirk
,
NSG


Looks bad for Cheeky if FF/Molla town.
gobbledygook wrote:Why weren’t you voting at the end of the day there, Auro
I was absent during the final NSG wagon, and only posted there right after Dong hammered I think. I didn't have a vote in play for a lot of time, anyway.
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Post Post #3131 (isolation #471) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:57 am

Post by Auro »

Yes. FF+BB isn't a solve, BB+Dong isn't a solve.
It's either FF+Dong or BB+Gobble, assuming you and Dann are town.

My ideal lynches would be {Gobble,FF} in that order.
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Post Post #3132 (isolation #472) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:05 am

Post by Auro »

Wait. Dong+Gobble is valid too, I think.
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Post Post #3134 (isolation #473) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:20 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3133, gobbledygook wrote:EP wants me to note that
Auro remained uninvolved in the whole counter wagon situation despite being there when the wagons between Fish and NSG reached parity.
He thinks this makes it more likely that Auro is scum waiting for the town to decide one way or another. If that is true, the way Dong and Auro have interacted earlier today would make sense as scum buddies. I think we should probably kill Dong because the evidence is stronger against him
Incorrect. I laid an L-1 vote on FF, unvoted later, and was not present during the Molla wagoning + NSG wagoning which took place in a few hours. The votecount at FF's L-1 is missing.
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Post Post #3135 (isolation #474) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:37 am

Post by Auro »

Nancy's take:
>FF counterwagon to NSG, must be town
>Gobbles and Molla voted together on both NSG and FF; hence prob not scum together
>Joan's opening town
>FF and Dong feel genuine
>Agrees on Dann locktown
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Post Post #3136 (isolation #475) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:44 am

Post by Auro »

In post 1228, Dunnstral wrote:She said her team thought gobble was scum and then said FF is the only wagon she can see flipping scum

And then she won't answer to numerous inquiries about what is going on

Plus her play when she comes back is pretty blatantly scum
Nancy's take Part II:
>Post above heavily implicates Gobscum
>Classic scum distancing
>Just lynch Gob!
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Post Post #3140 (isolation #476) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:10 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3138, gobbledygook wrote:You were there when the NSG wagon happened.
The first NSG wagon, yes. I'm referring to the final NSG lynch wagon. At the point you quoted, I was still torn between FF and NSG.
gobbledygook wrote:Actually, after I read through those posts around that time it looks like Auro is trying to chain lynch NSG into Gobble since Day 1.
Okay, so this would be equivalent to me voting NSG, yeah?
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Post Post #3142 (isolation #477) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:22 am

Post by Auro »

Because I couldn't decide who was the better vote. In a vacuum I would prefer NSG but losing town!NSG D1 would be a heavy cost to pay.
FF's posting was very lackluster, but after I got him to do some mild paraphrasing of his PT, etc I began losing heart.

If I didn't actually want to kill my scumbuddy NSG, I could've nudged things towards FF, who was looking bad already. I did the opposite. What purpose would an extended engagement with FF which results in him looking townier achieve?

I townread Dong because even though most of his recent pushes are bad, they still read as genuine - and his earlier pushes even more so. I've played with town!Dong, and whatever he's done doesn't seem outside his townrange.
That's a very malleable read, though.
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Post Post #3144 (isolation #478) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:17 am

Post by Auro »

Yes, I believe I must have made the "NSG might be a better lynch, lost heart in FF" post around that point.
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Post Post #3166 (isolation #479) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:30 pm

Post by Auro »

Don't you soulread FF town?
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Post Post #3168 (isolation #480) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:45 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3148, gobbledygook wrote:You put Fish at L-1, then unvote. A day later and 200 posts later you are saying you want an NSG lynch but don’t want to put her at L-1.

I don’t get why you wouldn’t even vote NSG at that time especially when her wagon and Fish’s wagon were in direct competition with one another. If you were afraid of ending day, why even put Fish at L-1?
Mildly incorrect - did I say I didn't want to put her at L-1? I simply just didn't.

I wasn't afraid of ending the day at that point. L-1 FF was more of a reaction vote.

I don't think there was any danger of FF being lynched towards the end of D1; if they were still both at L-2 it would make more sense for me to lay a vote just to prevent FF lynch.

The lack of vote, etc is pretty awkward, right? As scum I'd prolly be more conscious of how my vote is in play, and prolly plan out a better trajectory regardless of who's getting lynched.

I don't see why you're so fixated on this alone - is there nothing else in this game that interests you?
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Post Post #3169 (isolation #481) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3152, CheekyTeeky wrote:wtf am I doing pushing everything uphill and risking it all on your townflip as scum.
Wifom
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Post Post #3175 (isolation #482) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:29 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3170, CheekyTeeky wrote:Yes. Wifom, your favourite
I mean, my comment was more to demonstrate that Wifom accusations are generally unproductive - whenever I make an argument about possibilities, you say I'm scum wifoming it up.
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Post Post #3178 (isolation #483) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:47 pm

Post by Auro »

Why would FF+Dong come into the day antagonizing me when I'm tunneled on Gobble?
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Post Post #3179 (isolation #484) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:53 pm

Post by Auro »

If Gobbles is town, scum literally just have to lurk out, or continue posting uninteresting shit and let me drive the lynch; and settle into a very favorable LyLo position.
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Post Post #3180 (isolation #485) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:37 pm

Post by Auro »

If {Cheeky, Dann, Auro} are all town, we have a 83.33% winrate, and if we can guarantee that at least one pairing in that four is impossible, we have a 100% winrate. :D
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Post Post #3183 (isolation #486) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:55 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky/Me works better for a paranoid win. A Gobbles town flip would lend me a LOT of scum equity.

I think FF is townier for a few reasons, I'll make a note in sometime. While it shouldn't matter in theory, LyLo shenanigans are still a thing.
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Post Post #3184 (isolation #487) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:56 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3072, Auro wrote:viewtopic.php?f=2&t=81665&user_select%5 ... &start=200

Cheeky, read this and tell me if you notice a difference from their play this game?
Cheeky, can you do this now?
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Post Post #3187 (isolation #488) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:03 pm

Post by Auro »

Between Dong/FF, Dong.

FF's trajectories don't look planned. The premises behind his claims are demonstrably untrue, but I believe he believes them; as scum who made those NKs he'd have a higher general level of awareness and would manage to pick out better arguments.

Dong, meanwhile, isn't showing genuine thought. He began with a tunnel on me, promised a case on me - but his posts reveal that he decided I'm scum first and is then trying to fit explanations. Listing Gob at the same level of scumread is icky. If you scumread two people equally, and there's a wagon on one of them and not the other, why would you push the other?

Dong+Gobble can exactly be the scumteam.
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Post Post #3189 (isolation #489) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:11 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3186, CheekyTeeky wrote:Yeah, gobbles actually tried and was slimey. Is he town there?
"Slimey"?

I assumed it was a scumgame for some reason when I read the ISO. I was very surprised at the effort he put in and how obvtown he seemed to me. He was actually town there.

One primary characteristic in this game, and other towngames is the presence of meaningful engagement - his pushes all seem very real. I don't see any empty/"bad" questions. He follows up on responses, with more questions or with a vote, etc.

His play here is starkly different not just in terms of activity but the kind of engagement and thought processes he shows in his posts. His questions are mostly busywork. He's fixated on details that have occured way in the past. His solve that scum are in "first tier townreads" is incongruent with his tone - town thinking this wouldn't relax if they actually believed this, especially when said "first tier townreads but actually scum" are baying for their blood.

I don't think there's a single towngame where he behaves this way.
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Post Post #3195 (isolation #490) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:44 pm

Post by Auro »

Molla, you're still on board for lynching Gobbles, right?
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Post Post #3197 (isolation #491) » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:24 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3145, BBmolla wrote:All I can think of when I look at those VCs is that Dong is scum
You feel stronger about her than Dong? What makes her scum, apart from the AtE?
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Post Post #3206 (isolation #492) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:39 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3168, Auro wrote:
In post 3148, gobbledygook wrote:You put Fish at L-1, then unvote. A day later and 200 posts later you are saying you want an NSG lynch but don’t want to put her at L-1.

I don’t get why you wouldn’t even vote NSG at that time especially when her wagon and Fish’s wagon were in direct competition with one another. If you were afraid of ending day, why even put Fish at L-1?
Mildly incorrect - did I say I didn't want to put her at L-1? I simply just didn't.

I wasn't afraid of ending the day at that point. L-1 FF was more of a reaction vote.

I don't think there was any danger of FF being lynched towards the end of D1; if they were still both at L-2 it would make more sense for me to lay a vote just to prevent FF lynch.

The lack of vote, etc is pretty awkward, right? As scum I'd prolly be more conscious of how my vote is in play, and prolly plan out a better trajectory regardless of who's getting lynched.

I don't see why you're so fixated on this alone - is there nothing else in this game that interests you?
@Gobbles.
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Post Post #3207 (isolation #493) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:39 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3205, CheekyTeeky wrote:VOTE: Auro L-1
You sure you want to go down that route? :P
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Post Post #3210 (isolation #494) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:43 am

Post by Auro »

If I'm lynched now, Cheeky!scum is my solve, town.
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Post Post #3213 (isolation #495) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:46 am

Post by Auro »

This is an extremely stupid strategy if you're town, Cheeky.
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Post Post #3214 (isolation #496) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:47 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3212, CheekyTeeky wrote:So Auro if gobbles hammers you am I still scum over him or are we buddies?
Both are plausible universes - scum Cheeky knowing town!Gobble will lynch me, and going for a Gobble lynch the next day is plausible.
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Post Post #3217 (isolation #497) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:51 am

Post by Auro »

He could be; however your vote is super damaging to town win chances. Your scum equity goes up massively. If you're town, oh well, hopefully you'll learn for next time. :P
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Post Post #3219 (isolation #498) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:52 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3216, CheekyTeeky wrote:Why would I try to lynch gobbles after setting him up? Why didn't you suspect I set FF up and we were buddies?
You wouldn't need to, if he hammers - would not only make him look extremely bad, but also my townflip combined with my constant push on him should make town auto-lynch him. You wouldn't need to try.

Hence, insuring against that winpath by asking town to lynch you instead.
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Post Post #3220 (isolation #499) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:54 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3218, CheekyTeeky wrote:WHO GOES TO THE TROUBLE OF SEARCHING ALL MY GAMES TO TOWNREAD ME WHEN I'M SELF VOTING?
I did this to some extent, but why are you shouting? Why would I do this as scum and not town?
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Post Post #3224 (isolation #500) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:58 am

Post by Auro »

Because I individually townread you, so I focused on solving within the other four. Even if I'm perchance wrong about you or Dann, your partner would still be in the four. If you both are scum, then was OK with handing you the win.
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Post Post #3225 (isolation #501) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:00 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3221, CheekyTeeky wrote:I don't know why I'm shouting, I'm losing my mind.
I'd still like to know why that strikes you as odd. Self-voting is likely to be a prominent meta characteristic. If I found that you only ever self-voted as scum I'd have called you scum. Instead, I found a towngame where you were behaving the exact same way with Dunnstral, thus making it a townread.

:neutral:
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Post Post #3228 (isolation #502) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:07 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3223, CheekyTeeky wrote:UNVOTE:
If I was scum I wouldn't need to pocket you and maintain the pocket while dealing with your constant bouts of paranoia. You'd be dead by now. :P

(And this isn't wifom, btw)
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Post Post #3231 (isolation #503) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:12 am

Post by Auro »

I'm not, actually :P :P
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Post Post #3232 (isolation #504) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:14 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3227, gobbledygook wrote:By the way, even if I was scum, I wouldn’t just lolhammer anyone who got to L-1, so I’m not sure what this is all supposed to accomplish.
Hammering me gives higher win chances than keeping me alive at this point if you're scum; blame can be shared between other town derps on my wagon.
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Post Post #3234 (isolation #505) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:17 am

Post by Auro »

I mean lay a vote on FF to hope he gets lynched over NSG.
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Post Post #3235 (isolation #506) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:18 am

Post by Auro »

I'd like to know your solve in a universe where Auro is town.
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Post Post #3236 (isolation #507) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:19 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3225, Auro wrote:
In post 3221, CheekyTeeky wrote:I don't know why I'm shouting, I'm losing my mind.
I'd still like to know why that strikes you as odd.
@Cheeky
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Post Post #3239 (isolation #508) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:46 am

Post by Auro »

False. I meta cased Gobbles long ago.

I didn't meta you out of the blue; it was a very specific behaviour that's easy to search instances of, and I believe often is useful at low cost.
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Post Post #3240 (isolation #509) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:53 am

Post by Auro »

I did also meta dive other slots to an extent, inconclusively, so I wouldn't post about that in thread.
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Post Post #3242 (isolation #510) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:01 am

Post by Auro »

Cool.

Again, if I'm lynched, remember:
1. Dann is lock town.
2. Cheeky dies, no matter who hammers me.
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Post Post #3243 (isolation #511) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:13 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3242, Auro wrote:Cheeky dies, no matter who hammers me.
Cheeky knows a hammer on me by town is plausible. Cheeky also knows that town shouldn't be lynching this early, if at all they do.

"I was baiting a hammer so we could nail scum!"
"It was a reaction test, I didn't think someone would actually hammer Auro"
"I don't know what I was thinking"

Do not listen to any of the above.
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Post Post #3245 (isolation #512) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:28 am

Post by Auro »

If I'm town, it's Cheeky+whoever in that order of likelihood.
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Post Post #3252 (isolation #513) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:24 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3246, gobbledygook wrote:
In post 3234, Auro wrote:I mean lay a vote on FF to hope he gets lynched over NSG.
Sorry to belabor this point, but this is the revised statement concerning those actions right? Your big post had that comment incorrectly stated?
I don't see how I originally incorrectly states it? To prevent a lynch on my partner NSG, I'd vote FF - where's the contradiction?
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Post Post #3253 (isolation #514) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:27 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3248, gobbledygook wrote:Can we have that discussion now
Do you think he's scummier than FF, Dong?
If not, then we agree he's town enough not to be lynched, thus discussing his slot isn't useful.
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Post Post #3254 (isolation #515) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:31 am

Post by Auro »

Ohh. I read the OP. Yes, to prevent NSG* lynch. We're talking in the hypothetical that she's my partner, so yeah ofc NSG* :P
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Post Post #3255 (isolation #516) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:40 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3253, Auro wrote:Do you think he's scummier than FF, Dong?
Nevermind this as well - I read your other post wrong.
Do you have reasons to back up a scum Dann read beyond that the gamestate requires a "tier-1 townread" to be scum?
I don't find that line of reasoning particularly strong; I think the "tier-2 townreads" were more obvtown read than "tier-1 townreads" and thus harder to lynch, while the tier-1 townreads suffered from constant paranoia - and not just from themselves.

Reasons for Dann town include his awkward behaviour around the NSG wagon, very bad NK decisions, reliability of the NK'd people on his alignment, points of frustration, behavior towards Cheeky, genuineness in gamesolving, distinction in teammates' reads through progressions.

Reasons not to stoke paranoia about him, for me, is that if he IS scum, he must have a partner in {FF,Dong,Gobble,Molla}; and I'd rather scum!Dann take the win than all the lurkers and town derps creating noise with inane behavior.
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Post Post #3261 (isolation #517) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:30 pm

Post by Auro »

Not you unless you get me lynched. And because you lynching me is such poor play that I can only call it scum play in spite of my previous townread on you.
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Post Post #3262 (isolation #518) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:00 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3257, gobbledygook wrote:Fish and Dong, who do you think Auro’s partner is?
Is there nothing else you want to discuss with me? Say, the Dann read?
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Post Post #3264 (isolation #519) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:48 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 2775, T-Bone wrote:
Vote Count
Hopkirk - 5
(Dannflor, Cephrir, BBMolla, CheekyTeeky, Formerfish)
goobledygook - 2
(Auro, Hopkirk)
Dongempire - 1
(gobbledygook)
Auro - 1
(Dongempire)

Not Voting - 0
()

Activity Check - Lynch as of post #2721


Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-10 23:00:00)

With 9 Alive, it takes 5 to Lynch
Don't care to prod Dann or you on this.
Cephrir flipped town.
I don't remember Molla's vote being particularly questionable.
FF I have more meaningful things to engage on.
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Post Post #3265 (isolation #520) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:49 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3258, Formerfish wrote:I'll answer that later. I have a sweetheart dance to go to with my daughter, and reun posted, so I can answer auro finally.

I'll be here tonight or tomorrow.
My most pressing concern is that you acknowledge that town shouldn't lynch early, agree to use Hurt tags, and then leave a vote on me and piss off? If you won't be here to engage, why have a vote in play?
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Post Post #3267 (isolation #521) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:41 pm

Post by Auro »

I was put at L-1 twice, so... Wouldn't that be a "clamoring of votes" my way, when it takes only 4 to lynch and from my pov, both scum can vote me?

I pushed you for content late D1 because I thought you'd be a mislynch, then unvoted your L-1 and said I've lost heart in an FF lynch... So it's kind of dumb to say "you pushed me D1 cus you're scum" yeah?

Also, I've explained a thousand times that my asking for teammates' opinions was for me to develop a better read on the slots I'm asking. I have to differentiate between town stupidity and scum disingenuity, yeah? I can believe you believe your "sucky reasoning", I simply believe Reundo wouldn't.

AND, Reundo is a competent AF town player. His solve would help town if you're town. That's also a reason I was specifically asking for Reundo's SOLVE since D1, and not just his read on me. I've never played with him (I read his games) and his town competency is verifiable - if I was scum, would I expect to be townread by him?

Do you claim to have 100% confidence in your gut read? If not, why do you not bother about the world where I'm not scum, and gamesolve under that assumption?

Why would you expect to be townread when your only real read is that I'm scum, which you claim is a "gut" read when I've shown your previous reasoning to be full of crap, you don't gamesolve anywhere else?

Is there *any* reason I should townread you at all, fypov?
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Post Post #3270 (isolation #522) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:57 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3255, Auro wrote:Reasons for Dann town include his awkward behaviour around the NSG wagon, very bad NK decisions, reliability of the NK'd people on his alignment, points of frustration, behavior towards Cheeky, genuineness in gamesolving, distinction in teammates' reads through progressions.
I don't think a BoP on his Hopkirk read is enough reason to be paranoid, especially when y'all managed to lolhammer that slot too early.
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Post Post #3271 (isolation #523) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:03 pm

Post by Auro »

It's a waste of thread time. Cheeky, fypov, unless he's scum with me there's bound to be one scum in [Molla, FF, Gobbles, Dong], right? So why not focus effort on their play and find scum there?
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Post Post #3276 (isolation #524) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:25 pm

Post by Auro »

Well, I'll explain how I'm seeing things currently. We have two lynches.
FF, Gobbles, and Dong all have very high scum equity. Molla's been townier of late, but still has decent scum equity.

Dann has considerable town equity for a multitude of reasons. There's no single post that sticks out as hard town - I think Dann can fake towny posts as scum easily. Instead, look at his play from a holistic perspective.

Night Kills aren't completely meaningless. Scum doesn't carry out random NKs. Dann making those night kills as scum sounds like a pretty bad idea for him, especially in White Flag. Think about it. Scum!Dann would, in addition to not being lynched himself, have to defend his partner from a lynch. Cephrir was a low-involvement town slot that lock town read Dann and would happily sheep him in later days. At the same time, Dann also knows that you're constantly paranoid of him. He also knows that other town slots are suspecting him. What would scum!Dann do in this situation? NK Cephrir, and then fight off scumreads by himself while hoping to get town cred via WIFOM? That is a
very bad
strategy for scum!Dann. Remember how I said that if you had lynched me early, that's such poor town play from you that I would instead believe you're scum? The same logic works in reverse here, and in a stronger way -- the NK would be such poor
scum
play from Dann (an otherwise competent scum player) that I'd instead believe he's town.

If there's any other reason you think is too vague for you to see for yourself, I can detail.
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Post Post #3277 (isolation #525) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:36 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3275, CheekyTeeky wrote:Say you get lynched by me Auro, you said earlier that you wouldn't mind one of you/Dann being lynched if we lynched your scumread tomorrow, so it reads a little odd to me that when you're dead set on gobbles being the lynch that you would throw that all away to call me scum.
Keyword being lynched
early
before I have 1. a solve, and 2. a guarantee from the rest of town that they blindly lynch my solve. It isn't an invitation to quicklynch me. Additionally, that was a sanity test on Dann.

I've explained that your succeeding lynch if you had gotten me lynched early was insurance against your play. Yes, I have a whole bunch of reasons to townread you.
Yet
, keeping your vote on me long enough to have someone hammer me would be
so
bad that it would override my reasons to have townread you. I don't want to get unnecessarily paranoid for the same reasons I don't want to get paranoid of Dann. My desired Gobbles lynch takes care of a Cheeky+Gobbles team.
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Post Post #3280 (isolation #526) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:12 pm

Post by Auro »

You would've been a fine candidate and far superior to Cephrir as a NK.

Who would suspect Dann off a Cheeky NK? You've been suspect about literally every slot, and your last posts in the day were you arguing with me that I'd go for FF if a Gobbles lynch didn't end the game. If you were NK'd, do you think town would go "Oh my, this implicates Dann for sure!"? Do you think Ceph would've believed that? It's 4 to lynch, each extra vote for scum is valuable. I don't think Dann would believe that killing you raises suspicion on him, and I don't think Dann would believe that you're a viable lynch option that could be kept around. The negative impact of keeping you alive (your paranoia of Dann, his declared lock read on you, lack of a reliable sheep vote) far outweighs the benefits of keeping Ceph alive (not paranoid of Dann, free sheep vote, uninvolved); even *if* there was a chance that your NK would arouse Dann suspicion, that's negligible in front of the advantages, and easily defended against ("Night Kills are meaningless!").
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Post Post #3281 (isolation #527) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:15 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3279, CheekyTeeky wrote:Dong why Auro over Dann? Do you townread Dann?
To me, a more interesting (and unanswered still) question is why Auro over Gobbles.

Cheeky (and the rest of the game), I'm sorry if I sound condescending and call you bad/derpy/whatever. Please view it as me holding you to (my personal interpretation of) high standards of play.
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Post Post #3284 (isolation #528) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:29 pm

Post by Auro »

It's not all about you, Cheeky. :P

There are a bunch of scummy af slots and only two more lynches required for scum!Dann's win. Lynching you while having declared you a strong townread is far more difficult than lynching 2 out of [FF, Dong, Gobble, Molla].

Killing you pretty obviously implicates FF on a surface level.
In post 2773, CheekyTeeky wrote:Just promise me you'll kill FF if gobbles doesn't end the game.
No one's going to read this post, see your NK, and then say "FF would've killed her D2 and not D3, hence this implicates FF". I'm sure anyone would believe scum!FF kills you D2 and not D3. Do you want to test me on this? Simply ask the rest of town whether they agree. Yes,
someone
is going to say FF was "framed"... but yeah there's still nothing that provides reason to suspect Dann exclusively when you suspected every other slot.
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Post Post #3285 (isolation #529) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:30 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3284, Auro wrote:I'm sure
no one
would believe scum!FF kills you D2 and not D3.
Correction in bold.
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Post Post #3286 (isolation #530) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:32 pm

Post by Auro »

How about you run your reasoning by Popsofctown and gather her thoughts as well?
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Post Post #3291 (isolation #531) » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:49 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3282, CheekyTeeky wrote:I actually think there are a few brain cells in the group to figure out FF is being set-up
And these brain cells lie where? Ceph? Gob?
Dong
?
CheekyTeeky wrote: Why? He obviously doesn't kill Dunn who hard defended him and he doesn't kill me over Kitty D1. D2 is optimal for distancing from suspicion over my NK when I'm chasing gobbles/Hop. D3 he'd have to rely on wifom to survive which you think is unlikely for scum to do and which is unlikely after an already rough D1 for FF.
(1)Defending against Wifom > Defending against someone baying for your blood.
(2)Keeping someone lockreading you town and unlikely to get paranoid > Killing them and getting towncred from Wifom.
Wifom in (2) is not the same as wifom in (1). Do you agree?
CheekyTeeky wrote:My reasoning is not the issue here, you have no solid ground on which to stand you Dann townread on. The NKs especially.
Your reasoning is very much an issue. You can deem
any
reason I have to townread Dann on as 'bad'. Nothing prevents you from saying "scum!Dann can easily say/do this!" etc.
We can flip this over, and talk about the concerns you have with Dann instead.
CheekyTeeky wrote:This is bs he's been hedging on his read since I started pushing him which I intentionally waited for him to declare a strong TR on me before doing. He was planning on lynching me today...are you being intentionally obtuse?
I'm not being obtuse. By your own admission, you've acted "batshit scummy". If Dann reacts by pushing you, it's scummy since he declared a strong TR... yet, when I react by not pushing you it's scummy since I'm forced into a strong TR? Can you see how your reasoning fails at this point? If you're acting "batshit scummy" and this includes stuff like self-voting AtE, I don't blame Dann.
It's unlikely that scum!Dann
predicts
that you act all scummy today and give plausible reason to want to lynch you; hence my reasoning still stands.
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Post Post #3296 (isolation #532) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:28 am

Post by Auro »

:neutral:

@: Yes, "derp hammers" are scummy and you believed so when you asked me to lynch FF if Gobbles flipped town. If
you
believed it at that point, I don't see why you don't believe I believe town would believe it after a Cheeky NK. They wouldn't need to 'buy my crap' (in this case, Dann's); they literally would not arrive at the conclusion that FF would NK you on N2 over N3, and this doesn't logically imply that Dann is scum magically. I note that you're not being honest in your conversation with me - if you're treating whatever I say as scum "saying bullshit", I'm afraid that trying to make you realize my perspective is vain. If all this is for 'why not Dann'
post an Auro town flip
, then I don't see the point in treating my arguments like they come from scum.

@: That is not a strong factor by itself - I believe (2) is a lot stronger than (1) and this would come under (1). Yes, it is still a factor for town!FF, and I also believe there are other reasons contributing to town!FF; however not very strong. Still, if I'm right about you and Dann being town, this implies both scum in {FF, Dong, Gobbles, Molla}; and we only need to eliminate *one* pairing to have a guaranteed win. BB+FF is the least likely pairing within this 4 for reasons that have been covered before, and that suggests a Gobbles->Dong lynch order. This also works with the fact that FF and Molla have lesser scum equities than Dong and Gobbles.

@: Again, see above. It's a factor, but a relatively much weaker one compared to the example of FF not killing you, given no one has been really listening to me, instead suspecting me.

@: I didn't call it WIFOM bullshit, I called it lies. We don't have "versions" of "memories", I've posted
literal quotes
that the dead NKs scumread you. Yes, you can claim that there are better night kills for you in {Auro/Dann/Cheeky} and that would hold some weight. No, you can't say "But they were all townreading me!" and not be called out on it. I am running through different situations, yes... it's called gamesolving.

FF, if you're trying to make logical arguments with me,
please
run them by Reundo first. If he calls them stupid/moronic, making these arguments against me in thread is pointless; that saves both my time/energy and yours.

Cheeky, I will stop engagement with you at this point - while I do have a lot of patience, this can't go on forever. While you say you want to see things from my perspective, there's a clear gap in communication (or) you're being dense.
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Post Post #3297 (isolation #533) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:34 am

Post by Auro »

Gobbles, do tell me when you'll be free for real-time interaction!

Molla... we need to talk.
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Post Post #3298 (isolation #534) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:44 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3288, CheekyTeeky wrote:Pops doesn't want Dong lynched over you but overall prefers Dann.
This is still something I want to explore. Here's what I want from Popsofctown:

1. A vetting of your own reasoning for Auroscum, Dannscum, etc.
2. A detailed read on Gobbles.
3. A detailed read on me.
4. Her own response to why my reasoning for Dann!town is bad.

This would immensely help. There's no reason to refuse this if you're not 100% sure I'm scum.
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Post Post #3302 (isolation #535) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:24 am

Post by Auro »

>FF L-1 thing: His reaction made me unvote
>Hoping someone lolhammers: That's an awfully short period of time to expect someone to lolhammer
>Never pushes her: she wasn't playing the game, also I wasn't the only slot worried about her lynch being super bad for town if town
>
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Post Post #3306 (isolation #536) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:45 am

Post by Auro »

>"seems like the obvious choice" implies I don't have to case him to push him - the reasons are "obvious", there for everyone to see.
>"We should flashwagon" for reactions
>Why are "heavy unnatural AtE" and "made up content" awful reasons? I provide even more reasons, why ignore them?
>"Window dressing" nothing stops anyone from asking me to detail my reasons, though?
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Post Post #3307 (isolation #537) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:46 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3303, gobbledygook wrote:Auro, will be here momentarily. Need to get setup at computer.
Sure. I might go to sleep soon (timezones ugh).

Can we talk assuming both of us are town? What do you think of Cheeky?
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Post Post #3310 (isolation #538) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:12 am

Post by Auro »

Okay - this is a big ask, but emotional posting seems like something that can be verified in meta - have you checked to see that she only does this as town? If we were to skim her scum games, and find that she's a very... emotional player there as well, would that change your mind?

What's the degree of confidence in your scumread of me?
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Post Post #3312 (isolation #539) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:16 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3309, gobbledygook wrote:Why do you say Cheeky is likely to be scum independent of who hammers you?
She was already part of one lolhammer. She's not 100% sure I'm scum - far from it. She knows that it's plausible I get hammered if I stay at L-1. A hammer cuts discussion, and leaves only one correct lynch for a town win in LyLo - where all town have to vote correctly.

Knowing the dangers of keeping me at L-1, as town she most definitely should not be doing that. Especially if she's not 100% I'm scum. I'd rather believe she's scum than believe town!her can make that bad a play. There are other things I think she just doesn't grok me on, but definitely understands this.
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Post Post #3313 (isolation #540) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:18 am

Post by Auro »

Ok. I'll try meta diving to cross-check her behavior - I think it shouldn't be time consuming. Would you be willing to do it too?

Who would Dong's partner be? What's your basis for scumreading Dong? Assume Auro town and Dong town; who then?
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Post Post #3314 (isolation #541) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:21 am

Post by Auro »

Why are you happy with having your reads at low confidence? Aren't there things you want to engage upon with other slots? I've read your previous towngames and observed that you're a pretty competent scumhunter; you haven't done this yet in this game, nowhere near the same degree at least - can I expect you to start now, and not just with my slot?
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Post Post #3317 (isolation #542) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:26 am

Post by Auro »

Well I wouldn't expect her to be emotional throughout games every time as scum. If she is in even a couple of scumgames though, that would mean emotionality is not outside her scumrange.
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Post Post #3318 (isolation #543) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:28 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3316, gobbledygook wrote:What gives you the impression im happy about them being low confidence?
Throughout the game I haven't seen you act on them that much?

Like I said I feel a clear distinction between your town play and your play here. There's a chance you've simply not gotten the opportunity to aggressively engage and gamesolve yet, or I'm wrong and this is your towngame.
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Post Post #3320 (isolation #544) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:53 am

Post by Auro »

By happiness I mean not excited enough to be the aggressive player you felt like in those games.

Yes, it would help immensely if you can show me similar behaviour in previous town games. Please link.

I'll be sleeping soon.
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Post Post #3333 (isolation #545) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:12 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3323, CheekyTeeky wrote:Gobbles, you don't find it odd that Auro is trying to work with you now after trying to lynch you since D2?

He also didn't want to let you post today he was that sure.
Stupid accusation, where do you get the feeling I "didn't want Gobbles to post"? Why are you making up accusations, Cheeky? Here is me trying to engage with Gobbles three days ago:

In post 3106, Auro wrote:Gobble you're here! Is your VCA post complete?
In post 3107, Auro wrote:Gobble, can I expect real-time engagement with you for the next hour, say?
In post 3109, Auro wrote:Yes, one tiny question. Did you catch up before you posted , or was that the first thing you said when you came to thread?
The guy who kept saying "town shouldn't lynch early" etc, the guy who is careful not to vote at all, wants a flash lynch? Hell let's ask the guy himself. Gob, did you get the feel I wanted to lynch you before you had a chance to talk today?

I already took a stance on FF - that he's town. I had already taken a stance on Dong - that he gets lynched after Gob. BB was *not* on board with Gob lynch.

Gobbles was never "100%" scum. I was confident that you and Dann are town and that Molla-FF wasn't a team while Gob/Dong also had highest scum equities making that a winning lynch order. You've made me doubt the read on you.

If I ignore Gobbles while he's posting... "Auro's locked in so he must be scum who won't change his mind". If I do engage with Gobbles under an assumption he's town... "Auro's lynch shopping!" Disingenuous much?
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Post Post #3336 (isolation #546) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:22 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3328, Donempire wrote:If it is so obvious, why did she turn out to be town?
Exactly... He SEEMED to be the obvious choice, but in reality wasn't scum. But he SEEMED like it and that's what made everyone lynch him. I said he doesn't seem like scum late day.

So your gripe with me is... I said "Esp seems like the obvious lynch" and didn't case him, he got lynched, and that makes me scum? For not casing him? And on top of this, you're applying BoP on me - who called him not-so-scum and voted to get a lynch because Cheeky?

Use your head - why would I case someone that's getting votes already? To get someone to sheep me? Oh wait, they're already voting said slot - because it "seems obvious".

Yes, that was the post that made me unvote. I'm not the only one who reacts to AtE by shifting votes - why call me scum for that?

I'm not tricking any "child" , your case is dumb and speculative. I've done a lot of stuff; you just pick out actions, slap a scum motivation onto it, and act as though it's some sort of damning case.
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Post Post #3337 (isolation #547) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:24 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3335, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 3333, Auro wrote:You've made me doubt the read on you.
Hey if putting you to L-1 twice doesn't make me scum it's a bit late to start hedging now buddy. Lmfao.
This coming from the slot that admits she's acting "batshit scummy" and that I cannot re-evaluate because I'm locked onto a townread on her?
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Post Post #3340 (isolation #548) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:29 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, you're now very confident I'm scum, right? So town can flip both of us, in whatever order. Sound good?

Yes, and if I remained firm, it would be scum "who has no other option". There's a very simple question to be asked: Would town in my position re-evaluate? Yes/no?
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Post Post #3342 (isolation #549) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:33 pm

Post by Auro »

No... I think you're first. ;)
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Post Post #3345 (isolation #550) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:37 pm

Post by Auro »

"Kiss my ass".
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Post Post #3346 (isolation #551) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:38 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3298, Auro wrote:
In post 3288, CheekyTeeky wrote:Pops doesn't want Dong lynched over you but overall prefers Dann.
This is still something I want to explore. Here's what I want from Popsofctown:

1. A vetting of your own reasoning for Auroscum, Dannscum, etc.
2. A detailed read on Gobbles.
3. A detailed read on me.
4. Her own response to why my reasoning for Dann!town is bad.

This would immensely help. There's no reason to refuse this if you're not 100% sure I'm scum.
This first.
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Post Post #3347 (isolation #552) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:39 pm

Post by Auro »

Gobbles, do you want a reads list from me? :P
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Post Post #3351 (isolation #553) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:44 pm

Post by Auro »

Good town utilizes their time. Today, good town uses hurt tags and refrains from voting in order to get maximum engagement.
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Post Post #3353 (isolation #554) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:46 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3349, CheekyTeeky wrote:See when town actually believe someone is scum they vote them. Something you failed to do during your reaction test.
What's funny about this is that you accused me of trying to "lynch Gobbles without letting him speak"... Notice any incongruence here? :P
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Post Post #3356 (isolation #555) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:48 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3352, CheekyTeeky wrote:Yawn just vote me already scum.
... no.


@Dann, where are you, buddy? It kinda sucks going solo here. I'm waiting for Gob to do a couple of things that should flip my read of him.
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Post Post #3358 (isolation #556) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:51 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3355, CheekyTeeky wrote:Gobbles can you please say the tribe has spoken when you hammer me or Auro? That would make my day.
Obviously don't do this now, just reminding.

Molla, we still need to talk.
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Post Post #3359 (isolation #557) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:56 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3357, CheekyTeeky wrote:You sure you want to wait? Gobbles might be better pocketed by making him do zero work before you flip your read.
If I'm scum I definitely wouldn't be needing your advice. :P

Of course I want to wait, if you somehow missed the many posts saying we shouldn't end the day early. And yes, now is early.

I'm struggling to see why Cheeky scum would be excited by this idea - with Molla voting her and Dann probably voting along with me, and Gob having legitimate basis for negating his townread of her.
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Post Post #3361 (isolation #558) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:05 pm

Post by Auro »

I'm also trying to understand why town Cheeky has no reaction to Molla's vote on her. Hmm.
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Post Post #3362 (isolation #559) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:22 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3324, CheekyTeeky wrote:he was willing to die to let us lynch gobbles in Lylo
Is this why you had put me at L-1 before? I was willing to die to let Dann be lock townread in LyLo, and town lynch my final solve; at that point it was Gob but liable to change as the day progressed.

I've shown attempts to engage with Gob (like with his VCA post, or asking about real time engagement, etc) from days ago. Why do you think I was trying to engage with Gob? I had enough material for a case. Town Gob obvtowns, asking him to engage isn't going to make my push on him easier.

Oh wait. "Obviously Auro's scum and needs to pocket him!" amirite? (this response would be bad because it outlines a plausible scum motivation, but doesn't negate the validity of the presented town motivation, and thus doesn't make it AI that I engaged with Gob)
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Post Post #3365 (isolation #560) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:34 pm

Post by Auro »

Why is Molla dumb and not my partner?
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Post Post #3368 (isolation #561) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:39 pm

Post by Auro »

Truth be told, I'd totally want to do that in RVS if I was scum. :lol:
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Post Post #3370 (isolation #562) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:45 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3145, BBmolla wrote:All I can think of when I look at those VCs is that Dong is scum
You're not afraid that you'll get lynched, and I lynch Dong in LyLo? Do you believe Molla will want to flip me if you flip town? If not, why is this not a concern? If you truly believe I'm scum, you have to prevent this winpath, right?
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Post Post #3373 (isolation #563) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:02 pm

Post by Auro »

What gives you that confidence?

You said Molla was dumb for pushing you today, why will he not be dumb at LyLo? I quoted a recent enough post of him suspecting Dong which isn't an associative with you, and thus independent of your flip. You expect Molla of all people to go "Oh cheeky is town, lemme sheep her read"? :P
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Post Post #3374 (isolation #564) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:08 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3346, Auro wrote:
In post 3298, Auro wrote:
In post 3288, CheekyTeeky wrote:Pops doesn't want Dong lynched over you but overall prefers Dann.
This is still something I want to explore. Here's what I want from Popsofctown:

1. A vetting of your own reasoning for Auroscum, Dannscum, etc.
2. A detailed read on Gobbles.
3. A detailed read on me.
4. Her own response to why my reasoning for Dann!town is bad.

This would immensely help. There's no reason to refuse this if you're not 100% sure I'm scum.
This first.
If you're town, I still need this. For my final solve in case I'm lynched.
Please?
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Post Post #3376 (isolation #565) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:30 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3321, gobbledygook wrote:Will be able to link tonight but you’ll be asleep. Can’t do rn, sorry
Why haven't you done this yet?
CheekyTeeky wrote:
No I expect him to figure out that all the people pushing you/Dann are town. Look at that wagon on you Day 1.
But you wouldn't expect him to figure that out without your flip? :neutral:
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Post Post #3379 (isolation #566) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:37 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3377, CheekyTeeky wrote:I wouldn't talk to someone putting me at L-1 one lynch away from Lylo like I was talking them calmly off a ledge.
I would be furious and confident they were scum
from that point on. You're still hedging a read on me to suit a scum agenda while you look for a way out. It's pretty simple. I'm 100% sure you're scum so you don't need anything from pops.
I agree that you would be furious and confident that they're scum.
I agree that you would throw a tantrum being at L-1 a lynch away from LyLo.
But I'm not you.
I'm usually calm.
I'm trying to solve
, this isn't an ego trip for me - especially because my lynch would mean
only one shot left
at finding scum.
I retract that town should lynch Cheeky if I'm lynched right now. I now believe that Cheeky can indeed play
this
poorly as town. Right now, my solve is:
Spoiler:
Sheep Dann.
FormerFish, stop being thick and dense
. Co-operate and answer whatever questions he asks, everyone. Cheeky, don't cry and self-vote at LyLo.[/b]


Gobble makes this difficult with his lack of participation. I'm still yet to see towngames where he doesn't participate as a result.
FF makes this difficult because he's locked into a single read I know to be wrong, based on demonstrably false premises; even after being called "basically an idiot" by his competent town teammate Reundo.
Dong makes this difficult because he prefers to solely push me on dumb reasoning and not bother about anything else - I can't read this behavior well from him.
Cheeky makes this difficult because she's difficult as a person to deal with, somehow gets off on "proving" herself town by desiring her own lynch a lynch away from LyLo, and has little logic and very high levels of emotion in her posts that is unreadable.

How am I supposed to distinguish between town and scum here?

I do need Pop's reactions. FF will now come and shout that I'm trying to get townread. He doesn't understand the value of having teammates' reads and opinions in thread as having value in making slots more readable - a super useful tool in
Team
Mafia. Stop being cocky about your read, it's wrong. Never assume 100% unless you have a guilty. You will take
sole
blame for derailing the game if we get chain-lynched and you're town. Do this
for the game
.
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Post Post #3383 (isolation #567) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:25 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3380, Formerfish wrote:Pretty much your whole argument is that we are dumb and you aren't so we shouldn't follow our own reads and we should listen to you.

This feels like an appeal to authority or something similar. Like your argument right now is that we are being bad town, and how bad it's going to be when you flip, but I think this is all just fearmongering and muckraking.
I made many arguments about various reads. Stop summing up my posts as "u dumb sheep me". You are indeed dumb this game, as your teammate said to you. I'm complaining about how it's making it a lot harder to solve the game.

Dong's extensive "factual" based case? Are you kidding me? Strengthens your own... "case"? Which case? "idk gut lol squirm haha"? At least Dong is trying.

It's not an appeal to authority. It's an appeal to play the damn game properly. Even if you think I'm scum, there's a lot more you should do as town which you're not.

I did also predict that you dolts would take my increased activity as "oho defensive again caught scum" and pride yourselves over such crappy reasoning.

"Sweet slumber of victorious town" my ass. If I flip, accept you're full of shit, and sheep Dann.
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Post Post #3384 (isolation #568) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:27 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3382, Dannflor wrote:lmk if there's something exceptionally pressing I can address while I'm doing this
There's a non zero chance I'd be hammered. I think my inputs will help you solve for LyLo. Let's hash out as much as possible right now.
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Post Post #3388 (isolation #569) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:00 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3386, Dannflor wrote:despite my paranoia of being pocketed skyrocketing
Anything I did in the previous pages that made it skyrocket? O.o
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Post Post #3389 (isolation #570) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:03 pm

Post by Auro »

Let's leave associations aside. What strong reasons do you have for FF scum? Is his stubbornness AI?

And why is Dong town?
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Post Post #3406 (isolation #571) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:30 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3403, Dannflor wrote:He had not posted in ~28 hours before this post. His first reply back, is a naked vote, with no explanation for Hop being scum, a throwaway line, and a hammer. What are the odds he happens to come back, and cast the hammer vote, within 1 minute of it being L-1?
Did he write all that in a minute though?
And wouldn't he NK Cheeky?
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Post Post #3410 (isolation #572) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:32 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3405, Dannflor wrote:Gobble has been consistently around in this day phase and constantly talking AI stuff, asking good questions, and actively sorting the game. Town
What? Can you substantiate this with examples from this day? Who did he actively sort? What good questions?
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Post Post #3411 (isolation #573) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:33 pm

Post by Auro »

Sorry for sparse posting, will be here properly soon~
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Post Post #3413 (isolation #574) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:34 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3405, Dannflor wrote:He literally has two members in his team that can make that giant case on Auro,
Do you find his giant case on me different from his other posts about me (or in general) different in a linguistic sense?
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Post Post #3422 (isolation #575) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:02 pm

Post by Auro »

Hm true, he'd have to paraphrase it, I still think there might be some Dong artifacts. Nvm on this for now.

I think Ank's having too less a standard for Gob. I'll look at the links.
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Post Post #3425 (isolation #576) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:38 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3418, Dannflor wrote:his questions are consistently relevant and he's giving reads without obscuring them

his reads are also shifting in what looks like a natural way
Still think he's being held to a low standard, compared to this town games. I'd like to know if Ank feels this is his town self after taking a look at any of his town games
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Post Post #3426 (isolation #577) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:39 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3424, Dannflor wrote:I think a general list from everyone would help at this juncture tbh
I'll go last. ;)
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Post Post #3428 (isolation #578) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:08 pm

Post by Auro »

?
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Post Post #3429 (isolation #579) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:41 pm

Post by Auro »

Molla, it's important that we reach consensus. Do you still put stock into scum!Cheeky? Does Dann's towncase on her do anything for you?

@Dann::Molla's competent, I don't see what makes him town necessarily. Easier to look town this game given how the others are playing.

Did Ank just swoop in with that wall suddenly? Did she not have smaller opinions before, like wrt Dong?
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Post Post #3430 (isolation #580) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:56 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 1396, Donempire wrote:
In post 1387, BBmolla wrote:I like these wagons what course should I be taking?
Former seems like its a done deal at this pointz i doubt trying to flip everyone on nsg at the last moment will work, and im pretty sure on former (im also convinced on nsg but in a decision of one or the other...)
In post 1417, Donempire wrote:Sure, tomorrow we can have a better discussion.

VOTE: BB
L1 i think
I think eliminates a Dong-Fish pairing.
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Post Post #3431 (isolation #581) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:04 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 1350, Formerfish wrote:I brought up newbie 1942 where I was a bit fighting against town whinhad been pocketed by scum, and the last scum. In the end we had a way to mechanically win, or they could just trust me and we would win earlier. In the end I hammered myself, flipped town, and scum conceded over night.

Reundo was on at the time and he talked to me about how the situations differed, like game state and TM, and said not to give up.

Then he apologized for not being more up to date but he hadn't been reading as much. He did mention that some of the trajectories onto my wagon didn't make sense and he said NSg was one of them.

Said her vote seemed survivalistic and lacked any real insight other than I was the non her wagon .
In post 1362, Formerfish wrote:
In post 1361, Auro wrote:Apologies in advance, I know this is highly annoying.

What about mid game discussions? Before people started wagoning you. Can you give me that?
i can give a fast one if you need it now, im in the middle of tryong to do 1153.

Reundo replaced in, he asked us a few questions.

Elsa and Dave said they hadnt been reading other games.

I mentioned the replace ins for CT and BB, no one responded.

Elsa said they lynched scum in that game, i said "baller".

Then reundo got lynched :(

We did talk about you a bit, when we were going at it i was trying to figure out if anyone knew if it was town or scum for you, no one was on, and then when they were they didnt really respond to that
.

They talked about Creature and what happened with him.

Like i said, we just kinda bounce ideas off each other when we need to, and until the NSG thing there hasnt been much
Revisiting these posts and whether they appear made up. One thing I didn't catch, FF - in the bolded you say both that you guys talked about me for a bit, and that also that no one responded - can you clarify?
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Post Post #3434 (isolation #582) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:36 am

Post by Auro »

FF going VLA isn't a good sign. Can we collectively ask for a deadline extension?
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Post Post #3435 (isolation #583) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:17 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3409, Dannflor wrote:Talk to me on your Dong read, Auro?
I agree with you and have said before that Dong seems to be trying in his Auro case. But when that's the major part of his posting, it's difficult to make a read. There are reasons for believing FF/Molla are town, for Dong I find none.
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Post Post #3437 (isolation #584) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:29 am

Post by Auro »

Oh then nevermind. Feels like ages.
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Post Post #3438 (isolation #585) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:45 am

Post by Auro »

I think effort is better spent in sorting Dong/FF/Molla over Cheeky at the moment. Also reminder for the town games you said you'd link.
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Post Post #3443 (isolation #586) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:53 am

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In post 3441, BBmolla wrote:Why don’t you think I’m town Auro
You shouldn't just be town, you should be more town than Cheeky/Dann in my eyes - otherwise there's no more solving to do, since 2/3 other slots are scum.

And within the group of four I think you have highest individual town equity.

Are there reasons I should strongly townread you for?
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Post Post #3455 (isolation #587) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:03 am

Post by Auro »

Sorry, yes, Dong-Molla*; the very ready L-1 on Molla seems unlikely after being convinced on both FF and NSG. If we're chaining lynches we should make sure the two remaining slots don't form the exact scumteam.

One problem I'd still have with FF scum (which I feel we have discussed before but can't locate it) is the NKs... Plus he seemed to actually believe that the NKs townread him. Scum!FF would definitely be aware of his targets' reads; would he purposefully lie about them to towncase himself? Given his apparent experience with Cheeky would he not NK her at some point? Would he unnecessarily antagonize her in thread and vote her when she's pushing you (iirc earlier in this day)? Isn't his scum play better than this anyway?
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Post Post #3458 (isolation #588) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:07 am

Post by Auro »

Lynch FF into who?
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Post Post #3460 (isolation #589) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:17 am

Post by Auro »

You're right about the Former. (heh heh)

Latter - well I thought it was OK when I skimmed some ISOs long ago but meh.

Cool, I'm down for an FF lynch.
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Post Post #3479 (isolation #590) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:29 pm

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Yuss Gobble is finally towning it up
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Post Post #3481 (isolation #591) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:41 pm

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In post 3470, gobbledygook wrote:Why don't they just lynch me then Cheeky if those lynches are so easy?
That's there, but Dann and I both stated strong townreads on Cheeky. Driving a lynch on her would be arguably more difficult than driving a lynch on you/Cheeky if I got lynched.
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Post Post #3482 (isolation #592) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:43 pm

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In post 3480, gobbledygook wrote:I feel like FFscum makes better kills, especially with a Dong teammate. Unless the dead people were scumreading Dong? I'll need to check that. I could see FF killing people who scumread his weaker scumbuddy to help prevent his weaker scumbuddy's death.
I was feeling this too, but Dann's argument was that NKs were independent of the team; they simply killed the slots that were universally townread and kept the ones with some paranoia. None of the kills townread either FF or Dong.
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Post Post #3483 (isolation #593) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:46 pm

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I was doubtful that FF keeps Cheeky, but look at his transition from end of D3 to start of D4: he said he's "operating under the assumption" that Cheeky is town, and start of D4 she's a candidate lynch. This implies scum!FF believed it was possible to get a Cheeky lynch for some reason; and if we had jumped on Cheeky he would have too.
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Post Post #3485 (isolation #594) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:50 pm

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In post 3467, Formerfish wrote:I don't know what else my being here is actually going to do.
Gamesolving etc
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Post Post #3487 (isolation #595) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:58 pm

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In post 1462, gobbledygook wrote:I’m on my lunch break now
If I die Cheeky/Dann looks really bad with NSG scum flip. I think it would make BBmolla town too
If you remember, can you explain why Dann would have looked bad but not Molla, considering Dann started the wagon?
In post 2094, gobbledygook wrote:I mean lynch me so I can shit on you guy in the dead thread. If i was scum i would just go with an ESp lynch if i knew he was town. I think Dong has a better chance to be scum than esp. if you want to lynch him to test a gob/esp team that’s fine but might as well lynch me first if you all feel more certain about that
In post 2160, gobbledygook wrote:Whatever cheeky. Lynch me. I literally do not care. You just hard tunneled in Autobattler and I guess this is the same exact thing. I hope you get nightkilled if you’re town before you lose town another game
Have you asked for your own lynch as town before?
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Post Post #3491 (isolation #596) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:06 pm

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I mean, Molla was at L-1 and displayed some AtE. Before anyone said they townread molla for this, Dann said something along the lines of "fuck it, Vote: NSG, yolo". Why was this scummy to you?
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Post Post #3494 (isolation #597) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:11 pm

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In post 3492, gobbledygook wrote:Optics of flash wagon in town and then eventual NSG flip look really bad for the participants on the flash wagon. I think Dann is a scum player to realize that future implication is pretty damning in a game type where two scum lynches ends the game.
Did you not say scum wouldn't bus in white flag?
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Post Post #3496 (isolation #598) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:26 pm

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In post 3462, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 3178, Auro wrote:Why would FF+Dong come into the day antagonizing me when I'm tunneled on Gobble?
In post 3183, Auro wrote:Cheeky/Me works better for a paranoid win. A Gobbles town flip would lend me a LOT of scum equity.

I think FF is townier for a few reasons, I'll make a note in sometime. While it shouldn't matter in theory, LyLo shenanigans are still a thing.
Auro can you answer your own question in quote 1 and share the reasons you thought FF was townier in quote 2?
1. My lynch has higher payoff; FF was "lynch shopping" in any of Auro/Dann/Cheeky and seemed to go for me looking at town pushing me, as Dann pointed out.
2. I shared this before in a set of questions to Dann and I don't think they hold up anymore.
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Post Post #3497 (isolation #599) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:31 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3444, BBmolla wrote:I donno. Do you think I could fake everything I’ve said?
Yeah, I think you're a pretty great scum player, and there's not enough content of the kind I'd like that would help me townread you strongly.
In post 3466, BBmolla wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dong
Do you think Cheeky's town then?
What's the case on FF doing for you?
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