Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[GuiltyLion]

whoops, accidentally quoted the Molla post. I'll get to that shortly

[GuiltyLion]

Skitter - question for you though, if you're town and I'm scum, why don't I just push for your lynch significantly harder yesterday

-you're a harder lynch and a bigger threat
-if you're lynched it's very easy to chain that into Eve mislynch for the win in 5p
-if Eve is lynched instead of you anyway, gives me a convenient trajectory into LYLO, instead of whatever this mess here is

this might be a weird question but do you think you can mislynch me?

I think if I were scum I could easily mislynch you here yeah, especially with Molla. GL/Titus maybe it'd be dicier but I think we all agree GL/Titus isn't a plausible pairing

[GuiltyLion]

No prod pls

We should lynch whichever of the two of them is more likely scum, just in case something changes, even though it probably won't matter.

-Smart

does this not scare anyone that me/titus might be tvt ??? ^

I'm far more scared of TvS tbh, it seems impossible to me to think that both of you would be town given how the game has played out

I think the only reason I'd reconsider on Limit is the fact that Lilith hasn't posted in forever. I don't wanna push on that too hard because I do agree with Smart that RL is important, but I think she has a harder time keeping up appearances as scum. She did feel hella town early game though, so idk, I just haven't revisited it and don't feel it's likely enough to revisit atm

[GuiltyLion]

is that not a red flag that we're both town and that scum don't care who get lynched ?

I really don't agree with this! I think if you are both town it's easier for scum to pick one of you and fake conviction! I'm usually more assertive/pushy as scum because that's so much easier to fake than genuine uncertainty.

Why be wishy-washy when to scum it literally does not matter? Why not just tunnel one and call it good?

[GuiltyLion]

This last post by GuiltyLion has me thinking he might be town, which poses a huge problem for me.

If GL was scum and Skitter town, which is my current thinking, there's little reason for GL to push for a Titus lynch today. He could merely join Limit and BBMolla on a Skitter lynch today.

The only way that push benefits GL scum is if GL is scum with Skitter. My lynch would accelerate the victory or he could bus and claim victory tomorrow. However, GL's posting only makes sense if he's scum with Skitter.

If GL is scum with Skitter, then that poses a different sort of problem. That means both Limit and Molla are town and both have me as a higher partner than GL.

Of course, this doesn't factor in GL town. If GL is town and Skitter is town, then by PoE the team must be Limit/Molla. I haven't liked that team for a few reasons. Namely that none of them actually encouraged my GL push earlier in the game.

So that leads me to Skitter being scum, but I hate that conclusion too.

Basically, I feel like we're fucked but I refuse to accept that either.

Why do you hate the conclusion of Skitter scum?

What are your thoughts on Skit/Molla, is that a viable team via VCA? I think assuming you're town then that's the solve, and may then explain why Skit has started vaguely shading Molla w/out actually pushing there and possibly why Limit is alive.

Which brings me to Molla's question towards me, it's... actually pretty weird? Molla literally just said he thinks it's Skit/Titus, why does he then ask me who I think is Titus' partner when:

- it is clear throughout my play over the past few days that I would say Skit
- he claims to share that solve?

[GuiltyLion]

Limit - who would you rather lynch in Skitter/Titus? Are there any fears in your mind of a Skit/Molla or Titus/Molla team? I know you just said their posting has been "very towny", but can you actually detail on that for me? Which posts do you see as impossible to come from scum?

[GuiltyLion]

The Skit/Titus mutual townread is the knot that makes this whole game a mess

It has steered us away from lynching either slot for several days I think and cornered us into thinking they must be aligned bc otherwise their mutual reads on each other really

do not make sense

in a neutral view of the game.

Titus last post reconsidering me is kinda hitting my paranoia buttons of whether it really is Skit/Molla

[BBmolla]

I'm tired will respodn tomorrow

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

Hi friends - really really sorry I’ve been so MIA. Work has been absolutely kicking my butt the past few weeks and I’ve been pulling all nighters to get stuff done huge thanks to Smart for picking up my slack <3 I have a few lighter days right now so I plan to spend some time analyzing all the possible scumteams more closely. I’ll start once I’m done with work today.

-Smarter

[BBmolla]

bbmolla what's your solve rn ?
you promised it in the hood but it doesn't seem to have materialized

I was trying to draw the nk

You/Titus or You/GL

[BBmolla]

I kind of just think it's Titus/Skitter :/

I'm more confident on Skitter, but idk, everyone's play todays makes sense with that scumteam, in all other cases it's a bit awkward.

ok, why:
- is gl town?
- am i scum?
- am i scum with titus?

I like GL's postings
Yours and Titus's reads on each other are extremely awkward

[BBmolla]

- saus didn't slip

how can you say this with such confidence

[GuiltyLion]

one thing I'm not really getting, after sleeping on it, is why my post yesterday apparently caused Titus to completely 180 and see me as town

[GuiltyLion]

If GL was scum and Skitter town, which is my current thinking, there's little reason for GL to push for a Titus lynch today. He could merely join Limit and BBMolla on a Skitter lynch today.

The only way that push benefits GL scum is if GL is scum with Skitter. My lynch would accelerate the victory or he could bus and claim victory tomorrow. However, GL's posting only makes sense if he's scum with Skitter.

If GL is scum with Skitter, then that poses a different sort of problem. That means both Limit and Molla are town and both have me as a higher partner than GL.

this just doesn't make sense because if I'm scum and Titus is town I just push her and win here, regardless of who my partner is? Does Titus think she's a harder lynch than skitter here?

[BBmolla]

there's a lot of logical flaws in both of them that's kind of why I just think it's them

[Tiger Shark]

If GL was scum and Skitter town, which is my current thinking, there's little reason for GL to push for a Titus lynch today. He could merely join Limit and BBMolla on a Skitter lynch today.

The only way that push benefits GL scum is if GL is scum with Skitter. My lynch would accelerate the victory or he could bus and claim victory tomorrow. However, GL's posting only makes sense if he's scum with Skitter.

If GL is scum with Skitter, then that poses a different sort of problem. That means both Limit and Molla are town and both have me as a higher partner than GL.

this just doesn't make sense because if I'm scum and Titus is town I just push her and win here, regardless of who my partner is? Does Titus think she's a harder lynch than skitter here?

You would already have the support of either Limit or Molla on a Skitter lynch. That's three votes. Not all of you can be scum. Keeping your preference on me would be a harder route to victory as I am most everyone's second choice. Does it lock you as town? No. It is sufficient enough to give me pause though.

Also, Skitter not voting gives me pause. If Skitter hard TRs me, then he has a 2/3 chance of voting scum here (if town). Skitter is widely suspected too, but doesn't seem to be prioritizing which slot is wrong. The only reason I townread Skitter is because her play is too bad to be scum, but that can't be an excuse in lylo. Lylo everything resets.

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

Limit - who would you rather lynch in Skitter/Titus? Are there any fears in your mind of a Skit/Molla or Titus/Molla team? I know you just said their posting has been "very towny", but can you actually detail on that for me? Which posts do you see as impossible to come from scum?

Probably Titus, because of your points (especially the one about the acryon wagon which I had forgotten) and because skitter's interactions with you today have made a her/you team less likely which is one thing I was concerned about.

As for BBmolla I mean those fears exist but at this point the best chance is to just ignore them and put all our eggs in the skitter/Titus basket. BBmolla's indignation at the start of day 3 after having been super lurky for a while would be such a bizarre angle to take as scum; I think it's significantly more likely that he was actually just outraged town, and I happen to agree with him that the acryon lynch was in fact garbage. 2169 in particular comes off incredibly cheeky for a scum who has just sat back and done nothing while a pretty towny player was wagoned.

-Smart

[Tiger Shark]

What are your thoughts on Skit/Molla, is that a viable team via VCA?

Answering this now.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.5

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (241)
acryon (2)	Allomancer (215), BBmolla (243)
nomnomnom (1)	Karnage (26)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Pausing here. Given we know Eve was town, then either a)Limit or GL is scum or b) this wagon is all town. I doubt it's scum and scum because of them applying too much pressure with a counter wagon.

The wagon participation rate doesn't rule out all town wagon on Allomancer.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.15

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (533)
Eve (3)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354), acryon (378)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231), Karnage (299)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

We know Eve is town, therefore all three wagons were on town. This casts Skitter's lack of a vote in a different light entirely. I would expect at max 1 scum on each wagon and not voting.

Ironically, I don't expect the Eve wagon to be pure, which points to Molla scum. If the Allomancer wagon fell, scum would want a town wagon to replace it.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Evidence a Skitter GL team is not a thing. With an Eve wagon available, scum would not need to pile on nom unless Nom was particularly correct. Nom was voting Eve, so that's out.

Molla is not voting in T v T wagons.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 2.9

Target	Wagon
acryon (3)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Auro (1929), Eve (1956)
Eve (3)	acryon (1978), Titus (1979), skitter30 (2014)
Titus (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903)
Not Voting (1)	GuiltyLion (1780)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-14 17:47:59).

FMPOV, it would be highly odd that both scum would be voting me here unless the agency capture on Eve was that important.

Scum largely shouldn't care with town was lynched. I was locked on GL at the time. This suggests if GL is scum, his partner must be limit or BBMolla.

We also know the acryon wagon was all town at this point. This also suggests scum wanted Eve alive. Skitter could have resigned to the bussing of her townbeard but why? That is unless it's to protect me from being the lynch because I was the townbeard. If Skitter is scum, GL is not.

I don't like GL not voting here.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 2.11

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	acryon (1978), Titus (1979), skitter30 (2014)
acryon (3)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Eve (1956), GuiltyLion (2094)
Titus (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903)
Not Voting (1)	Auro (2051)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-14 17:47:59).

Not voting on all town wagons is hardly a scumtell though, as demonstrated here. Whoever Auro voted would flip town here. BBMolla and Limit were largely parked on me, which is odd though if they were both scum as discussed.

So as of now I am at

One of Skitter/GL and one of BB/Limit. I'll have to narrow that down further based on my prior comments.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 3.3

Target	Wagon
skitter30 (3)	Eve (2141), GuiltyLion (2189), BBmolla (2206)
Eve (2)	Tiger Shark (2145), skitter30 (2147)
Not Voting (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist, Atarashi Hajimari

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-26 13:45:59).

GuiltyLion plus BBMolla is unlikely a team. Therefore, if BBMolla is scum it's with Skitter. That suggests Limit and GL as the other team. Just which is which.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.5

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (241)
acryon (2)	Allomancer (215), BBmolla (243)
nomnomnom (1)	Karnage (26)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Pausing here. Given we know Eve was town, then either a)Limit or GL is scum or b) this wagon is all town. I doubt it's scum and scum because of them applying too much pressure with a counter wagon.

The wagon participation rate doesn't rule out all town wagon on Allomancer.

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Evidence a Skitter GL team is not a thing. With an Eve wagon available, scum would not need to pile on nom unless Nom was particularly correct. Nom was voting Eve, so that's out.

Molla is not voting in T v T wagons.

If Limit plus GL is not a thing, and Limit's best partner is GL. Then it's likely Skit and Molla. That's the only team that makes everything make sense imo.