Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

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Catching up now, my initial impression of the game is that Craig Pelton is very townie, probably my top TR

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Menalque replaces Craig Pelton.

This might be the darkest timeline.

Just call me Evil Dean

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So for anyone who didn’t already know: I am Craig Pelton. Craig Pelton is me. I wanted to play in the community game but after that got cancelled and I received the invitation, I figured I’d just use it in this game instead. I wasn’t planning on outing at any point, but I accidentally posted in another game as Pelton thereby outing my identity and thought it was a little unfair on anyone not aware of that to lose out on the bonus info

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Huh. I think I know who you are now and it’s really not who I thought at all

who did you think i was? skitter?

~Eve

Nah, I never had you as skitter, you honestly were always a confusing alt to me and I never really nailed you down but wanted to play with you quite a lot. It’s weird that you’re who you turned out to be lol

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MENA

Hi chem *waves*

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It made it clear that it was all a reaction test and I really don't think scum would start the game by trying to pull that off when the stakes are high

Eh, not exactly a reaction test but sure

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Hello Menalque!

I am going to sleep for a while. Please no loud noises...

~Eva

Hi, Eva!

Oh, god, sorry

Hi, Eva!

I have a tentative guess for who you might be too but unsure

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Fredrick, did you lose the ability to speak at some point recently?

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All scum in (snow, ydrasse, RCE, fredrick, homura) is my early prediction

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Anyone think I’m strongly wrong in that grouping or?

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You think scum just....isn't playing the game?

I mean... yeah? Potentially?

I don’t see any reason to have paranoia on my TRs right now and I think 2 scum is very probable in that group, and especially if suji is scum or something it would explain a lot about the gamestate

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why isn't Mohab in your scum grouping?

Tone + I think scum fake townslips a lot less often than towns get paranoid about the same

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I don't know what the fuck HoldenGolden is saying, so I'll be ignoring that slot

who the fuck is eva?

idk a lot of players open wolf a both alignments, not sure why you're bringing this stuff up as game throwing now

These 3 had good tone and I mindmelded on the first two

So, I am just wondering some stuff regarding the setup. From what I've read, does scum auto-win once they reach day 5? and why would them getting lynched Day 1 and Day 2 instantly end the game if there are supposed to be 3 players?

Correction: end of D4 or N4's start

I am gonna ask a really dumb question but, can there be power roles in this game?

These 3 are like oblivious town posting

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Ugh I feel like I read one of your newbie games snow but I can’t remember if I SR you there or not

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VOTE: RCE

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These 3 had good tone and I mindmelded on the first two

How could you mindmeld on the first one(!?)

I know Eve hates dumbtells, and while I think I'm more lenient on them, it seems unrealistic Mohab thought there were power roles in this game? It feels like Mohab didn't read the setup at all, so then why did he choose to play this game? Many questions.

~Eva

Because my initial reaction to seeing holden’s pirate speak was “yeah I cbf to decipher that”

Interesting that Eve hates dumbtells, I wouldn’t have guessed that. And idk, but I didn’t do exactly read the setup closely. Maybe mohab received an invitation and decided to accept on the basis of that + a good PL and moderator?

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You think scum just....isn't playing the game?

I mean... yeah? Potentially?

I don’t see any reason to have paranoia on my TRs right now and I think 2 scum is very probable in that group, and especially if suji is scum or something it would explain a lot about the gamestate

You never hit me back about this, RCE

The gamestate feels very weird right now

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@Mod:

How long does a day last in this universe?

We have like 7 days left, check the last VC

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VOTE: holden

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Would you explain where that vote is coming from?

Feel like Holden has very much disappeared from the game as a presence after having done just enough to seem like town + he’s voting me which is a wagon I would expect a scum to have gotten on

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I don’t particularly want to control the game here but people need to stop fucking around on 2 person wagons and get to voting some people up

My candidate is Holden. Get onboard or tell me why I’m wrong

That’s @evwryone

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Yes, I’m sure there would be a mix, Holden feels like a good place to start

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Fredrick why are you seemingly actively opposed to building a wagon?

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Okay, only you’re not telling me why Holden is town you’re just resisting the push

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The main point against him is not that he’s voting me, that’s supporting why I think he’s scum, which is that I think he entered, did enough to make sure he wouldn’t be pressured and then evaporated which is i think a scum trajectory

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And Holden is not VLA?

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I have a sinking feeling that at least half of it is rubbish.

Oh boy are we ready to disappoint you monkeyman

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Umlaut, can you join me on Holden please?

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In the meantime, how about a vote for Holden?

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In the meantime, how about a vote for Holden?

How about a vote for Chemist1422?

No. Chemist is literally the laziest vote you could be making in this playlist and trying to read him off activity tells is shit and never works. Also chemist has lowkey towntold this game

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I literally, *literally* cannot think of a worse place for a vote than chemist right now and if you don’t get off him and move your vote somewhere more useful I will come for you

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Also, @rce, next time you’re here get off your vanity and vote Holden with me

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Chemist and mohab — next time you get here, vote /somewhere/ preferably for Holden and let’s really get the party started

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Trying to pressure chemist is actively counter productive most of the time because he just feels less like playing when he’s town and is therefore less likely to answer, and as scum he just has to replicate that. Only he rolls town more than he rolls scum, so lynching him for it is such a waste and it’s why he’s /consistently/ someone scum try to lynch on D1 or keep around for a compromise lynch

Or he gets white knighted sometimes too. But if you leave him be he actually has good insights often and is discernible from being scum when he is town over a longer period.

So voting for him is dumb and lazy and bad and you should stop doing it and vote somewhere productive

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Also why is refusing to clarify himself even scummy? Do you think scum actively go “yeah nah I’m gonna piss off this towny and get them to vote for me” when appeasing and getting people to TR you is literally the name of the game as scum

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Menalque you still want to push Holden now knowing he's V/LA?

I mean I’d like a VC before anything else tbh

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or given reasons for Mohab!town

I very literally did

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no but i mean do you still think it's scummy for him to be absent from the thread

~Eve

Hmm, idk, I’m soured on it but equally why is it so hard to get traction on fucking anything this game

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VOTE: RCE

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Also why is refusing to clarify himself even scummy? Do you think scum actively go “yeah nah I’m gonna piss off this towny and get them to vote for me” when appeasing and getting people to TR you is literally the name of the game as scum

I think they try and sow confusion. Not clarifying anything is quite a useful way to achieve that goal.

Only just not explaining stuff doesn’t really sow that much confusion at all?

It’s much more effective to try and get people doubting their TRs or to infiltrate a townbloc and to steer it wrong

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Trying to pressure chemist is actively counter productive most of the time because he just feels less like playing when he’s town and is therefore less likely to answer, and as scum he just has to replicate that. Only he rolls town more than he rolls scum, so lynching him for it is such a waste and it’s why he’s /consistently/ someone scum try to lynch on D1 or keep around for a compromise lynch

Or he gets white knighted sometimes too. But if you leave him be he actually has good insights often and is discernible from being scum when he is town over a longer period.

So voting for him is dumb and lazy and bad and you should stop doing it and vote somewhere productive

I'll just take your word for it. For now.

VOTE: Raya36

Let me guess... because Raya hasn't posted for a while?

Exactly. 44 hours to be exact.

And also a reminder to everyone that Raya36 is a player in this game.

@eve I really doubt this is a scum thought process/justification for a vote, and I also think it’s unlikely that scum deliberately tries to “townslip” by saying that scum has no daytalk only to have it confirmed by mod that scum /do/ have daytalk

I mean fair play if that is what fredrick did, but I just think that the vast majority of the time shit like that is genuine and it’s not worth worrying too much about the marginal cases

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RCE doesn’t remind me at all of his towngame here and so guillotining him today is fine by me, let’s get some more votes there

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In the meantime, how about a vote for Holden?

How about a vote for Chemist1422?

No. Chemist is literally the laziest vote you could be making in this playlist and trying to read him off activity tells is shit and never works. Also chemist has lowkey towntold this game

How? and why? I can agree that using activity as the main reason to push is a little excessive (seeing as activity is a major point for most of the players here), but I don't see why they are the worst possible push?

Because pushing him won’t make him do anything whether he’s scum or town, he’s a player consistently targeted by scum for the fact that he doesn’t have thread presence, and because I think he’s done a thing that makes me lean him town although I don’t wanna out what that is yet — but I have a pretty good record on not mislynching chem when multiple people want to

And if he is town, the best chance of him towntelling more is when he doesn’t have votes on him if my understanding of him is any way correct

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Honestly, I think there’s a pretty good chance there’s an above average amount of lurker scum this game, I’m still not townreading snowblaze or ydrasse, and it’s quite strongly +scum for suji that he didn’t post anything imo

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@eve i really don’t think mohab is a good guillo for today and we can revisit there later if the better slots for killin (suji, RCE, snow, ydrasse) don’t flip scum promptly

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Fuck I do wanna still kill Holden though

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3/3 (suji, Holden, RCE, ydrasse, snow)?

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Sorry guys, was really not engaged with this game yet and discouraged when I came in and couldn't find anything to comment on.

VOTE: Fredrick
Going to start off again with this

Bad vote, join me on RCE instead

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can we have a VC please?

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I’ve played with RCE before and he feels like a shadow here. Barely interested in playing, less than that in actually solving the game

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Are you scum once again, S_S?

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Okay, who’s scum then?

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You’re kinda *sounding* like you might be scum, S_S

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Hmmmmm

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If you’re town RCE why does it seem like you don’t care about this game at all?

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Why is no-one interested in playing this game?

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You’ve been reading for like 2 days holden I want content

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I think Fredrick is ok. No slip there. Unless he backpedaled hard and successfully

Sorry guys, was really not engaged with this game yet and discouraged when I came in and couldn't find anything to comment on.

VOTE: Fredrick
Going to start off again with this

What was going on here, raya?

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Scum aren’t really fighting me for control of the gamestate, which means that either they’re happy for me to lead as I’m wrong somewhere, or that they’re just the inactive slots but that there’s also enough inactive town slots that the game feels dead

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He doesn’t feel like when I’ve played with him before (where I think he’s been town in every game we’ve had together?) and I feel like he is simultaneously producing content and yet not interested in solving the game

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Ydrasse r u trying to pocket me by just asking the exact same questions as me?

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I think Fredrick is ok. No slip there. Unless he backpedaled hard and successfully

Sorry guys, was really not engaged with this game yet and discouraged when I came in and couldn't find anything to comment on.

VOTE: Fredrick
Going to start off again with this

What was going on here, raya?

Me trying to re-engage myself

Okay but like why did you vote fredrick to do so?

[Menalque]

Liked his catch-up wall

What did you like about it?

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I’m confused, why does town not benefit from universal TRs?

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I think ydrasse is pocketing me u guys

It’s very rude to pocket people u know ydrasse. I can forgive u but only if you promise ur town, okay?

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They get NK'd immediately. You cannot protect your Top TR because there are no PRs, protective or otherwise

There isn’t a NK until N3?

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And frankly if the game is lost from a universal TR dying N3 then the game is lost anyway

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They get NK'd immediately. You cannot protect your Top TR because there are no PRs, protective or otherwise

There isn’t a NK until N3?

And they get confirmed if we eliminate Mafia on D1/D2. Hiding your TRs may result in the confirmation of those you were not sure about and thus help you catch scum still by virtue of shrinking your elimination pool.

Oh, right

Yeah that kinda makes sense but I think it’s prob dumb to assume that scum can’t get a fairly good sense of who perceived who how, and being reserved about reads makes it harder to hit scum on D1/D2 anyway

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VOTE: snowblaze

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Do you think snow is town, Eve?

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Don’t you think it’s very very easy for scum to say something publicly that they could’ve said in the scum pt to seem townie?

I mean, sure it is, but I don’t think that normally happens very often even though it could

Also there’s the ovvious downside that even if it “looks town” it also runs the risk of town misinterpreting it as scummy and drawing negative attention. Plus like, the downside of letting town know that it’s possible and being on guard for it probably outweighs the negative utility?

Only case I see RCE doing that is if he already asked in private and got it confirmed it was impossible and THEN decided to ask about it solely for towncred

Also I have just realised I am now townreading RCE maybe?

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No thanks I think plays are dumb.

I say that and then RCE had to turn up and make posts like these

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Well, there's a lot of it.

This is a silly reason

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Why snowblaze and ydrasse?

I will answer this once a plurality of the thread have answered my question about what they think scum would be doing

Menalque, are you going to answer this yet?

Oh, I kinda forgot but I just glanced at their ISOs again and I think with ydrasse it was that her 182 felt a bit over explainy in her vote on me but the vote itself also felt like it was coming at a point where scum might decide to start gently supporting the scumclaim wagon

Snow’s first post just seemed really fake I think? Like super hedging on multiple slots and things and I tend to think town would come down a bit harder on ~*something*~

Plus just a lack of townreading either of them from their early posts, and their general absence fitting with my sense that scum were being passive

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Umlaut’s take on holden’s wall apart from him liking that there was a lot of it is good tho

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I think I’m roughly at

Ydrasse, fredrick, umlaut
Holden, A50, RCE
Mohab
Chemist, S_S
Raya, eevee
Snow

Where my pool for scum is basically the last 5 names

I should also say: while my halves are mostly true, I may or may not have configured how much I townread some people or scumread others, and may or may not have put one of my top SRs in my TRs and vice versa

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RCE, umlaut, raya, we’re not doing a vanity with a day and a half left. Choose between the two wagons there are (yes I’m aware that means I’m just telling RCE to vote snow)

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That's a tomorrow issue.

Correct

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wouldn’t my hypothetical scum partners be trying to keep me alive? Actually, general question @everyone on my wagon: if I’m scum, what are my partners doing?

I mean, I think this is exactly what they’re doing by refusing to bus you, seeing as that’s very much a form of protection (much harder to get an all-town wagon through generally) and it’s less obviously associative than if they were posting walls on why you’re town

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Why don’t you want a snow lynch Raya? Or more to the point, why do you think snow isn’t scum?

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That's E-3 for Mohab and 15 hours until deadline

This is vaguely disingenuous given that Snow is also at G-3

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That's E-3 for Mohab and 15 hours until deadline

This is vaguely disingenuous given that Snow is also at G-3

Snow is viable as well but I don't want her lynched because I think she is town

Yes but by presenting only mohab it makes her seem like she’s the only person viable to anyone coming into the thread late, when that’s not the situation. Despite your reads you should present the information honestly so that we can see what people chose to do between the two of them on later days with all the information in front of them

I really wish we weren’t deadline guillotining

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RCEnigma

I still don't get the initial Porkens vote, but I'm not sure it's strongly AI either way.

The mechanics stuff... I don't really like making reads based on mechanical speculation, but again it seems weird from either alignment. I'm trying to think through this: scum!RCE would have presumably asked the question in the PT before making 168, otherwise he would have kept it secret in case the answer was yes. At the same time, town!RCE would have wanted to keep it a secret if he didn't already know the answer, since that post is encouraging scum to consider possibilities they might otherwise not have thought of... yeah, I don't think this is getting me any closer to a read, I'll just move on.

238 is okay, but the kind of solving that would be easy enough for scum to fake.

239 and 257 - this is the sort of thing I'd be kind of expecting from scum in the gamestate at the time.

264 - I do get the logic here, but I'm not really sure the information denied to scum outweighs the information denied to town, plus I find it very hard to play without talking about townreads.

536 - that's actually a valid explanation; personally if I'd had a thought like that and the answer was yes I'd keep my mouth shut about it and hope scum don't have weird enough logic to figure it out, but I guess it makes sense.

599 - actually not as bad as I originally thought given the context of the post above.

612 - I appreciate this, and I do feel it's slightly town-AI.

...yup, my reads are a confused mess again. What fun. At least if I'm eliminated I don't have to worry about getting them straight!

I'm getting slight pings in both directions, and I can't really work out whether the town-AI things outweigh the scum-AI things. That being said, I'm keeping my vote firmly where it is in the most-likely-vain-hope of self-preservation.

(By the way, we have plurality elimination at deadline, so you don't need to hammer me (or anyone else) just to get an elimination.)

Oh, I missed this earlier, this is actually very useful to know

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Fuck, I meant to just quote the last para about plurality

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I actually don’t love plurality setups because they allow a greater degree of passivity than I’d like and allow people to avoid compromise which I think is quite often useful in determining alignments when looked back at (who compromised and where) but the big plus is not needing to find 3 votes in 12 hours when the people I’d need to make those votes are all p inactive

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Why don’t you want a snow lynch Raya? Or more to the point, why do you think snow isn’t scum?

I believe Snowblaze's post that I quoted and she stepped it up with that read list and the new burst of effort. I also believe that she will participate much more now based on the reads and the effort shown there and the lack of participation and solving was my main problem originally.

Which post, you quoted two?

And why does snow making an effort at threat of being lynched make her townie vs her lack of solving earlier?

Also why is effort townie? Snow made walls and tried in her scumgames on site and meta is basically the only reason to TR someone or SR someone for effort

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S_S, chemist, RCE

I’d like it if some combination of you could vote snowblaze at this point to ensure she’s guillotined today

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Menalque, independently of Snowblaze, what is your actual read on Mohab?

I probably would have compromised there if we needed majority lynch

Her ISO is notably different from partition but I’m not convinced that means she’s scum. I still think the dumbtelling means probably town but like, I wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t. Mostly she feels like a counterwagon to snow after the RCE counter didn’t take off, which is compounded by a number of scummy slots avoiding getting on her while not necessarily calling her town

[Menalque]

S_S, chemist, RCE

I’d like it if some combination of you could vote snowblaze at this point to ensure she’s guillotined today

Why Snowblaze over Mohab?

I still think the original reasons for scumreading her are sound: the lack of scumhunting through the day, posts like 110 and 290 are overexplainy in a scummy way I think — there’s no need to say that mohab is scummy but not enough for a vote that early in the game and feeling like you need that level of justification is more likely to come from a new scumplayer I think. Same thing in 290, the reasons are very weak and probably didn’t need to be provided and I struggle to see why town would think it’s necessary to give them while making that vote.

Holden’s point is still valid about how 330 was an odd phrasing for why she was unvoting fredrick although her explanation in 530 isn’t unreasonable. However, speaking of 530, she has referred a couple of times to “not really having many scumreads” which I think is scummy (and more so from newbscum tbh) as I think it can be hard to come up with a convincing fake scumread when you’re scum and so it can be easier to just avoid that by saying “ahh everyone is just kinda town :/“

Her reads in 415 have an IIoA vibe to them where she’s just sort of describing what slots are like or what people have done rather than trying to figure out their alignments, and her 4 recent walls have nothing that I don’t think could be faked by scum in them and I see them as very out of sync with my own reads and impressions of those slots. They also just seem disjointed as a whole — like my pick for the scumteam rn is probably (snow, raya, eevee) and I think that makes a lot of sense given how they’ve reacted to one another and to the gamestate, which is the final bit of why I think snow is scum — the wagon on her came up quite naturally I’d say, but has been resisted throughout (it’s part of my scumreads on eevee and raya that I think they were both doing this) but no-one has really been wanting to towncase snow, they’ve just avoided voting for her or argued for voting elsewhere.

And then mohab feels like a soft target (given the dumbtelling and also the lack of posting) who scum are picking as their counterwagon to keep it off snow. I don’t feel strongly enough that snow is scum and that mohab isn’t to want to brute force her lynch (which is something I’m trying to do less anyway, as you may have noted in JK9++ when I didn’t try to force lilith through when her wagon was competing with yours). I wouldn’t be shocked if mohab flipped scum, but it feels much more like she’s the attempt to keep the guillotine off snow after doing the same with RCE failed, and I think there is a lot of pressure on scum to try to ensure that their team don’t get guillotined D1.

[Menalque]

Also, I’m weirdly not overly concerned about getting to flip scum today in that if mohab flips town I think snow is very, very probably scum, and there’s nothing scum can do to stop me coming after her tomorrow due to the first two nights being skipped. Plus if I’m right then we get two more tries at it where hitting on either is GG and I think I have a smallish pool for who I think make sense as partners for snow which will be significantly smaller if she reds and scum have to confirm five town

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I'm not sure Eevee + Raya = snow as the third but I get what you're getting at and Eevee is the only reason I'm not pursuing that angle.

I gotta say I like snow coming in and giving content under pressure opposed to Mohab just not.

I'm not sure Eevee + Raya = snow as the third but I get what you're getting at and Eevee is the only reason I'm not pursuing that angle. I gotta say I like snow coming in and giving content under pressure opposed to Mohab just not.

It’s more like snow = eevee + raya. I think raya can be scum either way, eevee makes a lot of sense if snow!scum and mohab!town

And I don’t really think giving content coming up to deadline with a wagon on you vs just not doing that is AI

[Menalque]

RCE, S_S, I would encourage you both to vote snowblaze if you’re still around for the reasons above

[Menalque]

Hi, Titus.

I think the most comprehensive arguments for snow!scum are in 665 from me, but Holden's 511 are also worth checking out.

Eevee is the main instigator for the current votes on mohab, and if you read her from 622 you should get what I think is the gist of the case there.

[Menalque]

Ydrasse, I think you should change your vote back.

[Menalque]

could we get a prod on mohab please?

[Menalque]

Sure.

VOTE: Snowblaze

Probably won't matter, though.

You're building a hill that you might potentially die on if Mohab flips scum.

VOTE: Snow

Pedit says this is hammer.

Thanks, both. Also, I'm aware of that RCE.

[Menalque]

I think you're confusing what town "should" do with what town "do" do. Because a lot of the time if I'm unsure of something I'll just sling it in the thread for clarification. I understand the paranoia around mohab seeming to have intentionally townslipped, but I just don't think scum actually very often decide to fake townships, and also it hasn't worked at all because people are so sceptical given the nature of the townslip? Like if you're focusing on townslips being faked, I think fredrick's is more likely because that's so much more plausible as a thing to not be sure of. Like mohab fake slipping a lack of knowledge about whether there are PRs just isn't even an effective way to fake townslip.

[Menalque]

Looking at the VCs alone, I postulate a snow Frederick Ydrasse team.

I very much doubt ydrasse is scum. I suppose fredrick maybe could be and if we get snow today and she flips scum we can talk about that tomorrow

[Menalque]

Eevee, why do you think snow is town?

[Menalque]

viewtopic.php?t=82755&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=83025&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

look at her scumgames and compare them to the level of effort and reads that she's giving out now

~Eve

The second game is entirely consistent with the amount of effort she’s put in here. I already meta’d her, what about her play in this game, besides meta, makes you think she is town?

[Menalque]

Spoiler:

Mohab/Menalque, I think.

I'm not feeling Menalque thinking Mohab's dumbtelling is town-indicative. NAI/not first choice of scum, maybe, but the way he's casing it here and the stance he's taking makes me feel like he's committed to a suboptimal scum stance and can't let go.

@Menalque: what's your progression on our slot? I remember you townreading us in the beginning; when did that change and why?

~Eva

Oh please, if I were scum I could be forcing this wagon about a hundred times harder than I am here to make sure mohab wasn’t lynched. The gamestate has been incredibly loose and scum!me would absolutely have taken advantage of that to take a more domineering role than I have.

And yeah, you kind of faded out, and then came back in to lead a pretty poor push (in its quality) away from my preferred scum choice. It’s kind of similar to what happened with firebringer in the recent JK9++ game — I started off TRing him for being ~*aorund*~ and having a presence then he sort of faded away and I realised what was there was never a strong basis for a TR anyway. This is all obviously assuming that mohab will flop town and that snow will flip scum. If mohab does flip scum then you’re very likely town.

[Menalque]

@ydrasse you should vote snow again

[Menalque]

@fredrick you should change your vote to snow

[Menalque]

Titus can you explain why you think it’s snow next time you’re here, please?

[Menalque]

@ydrasse I just don’t really get why those things make her not scummy. Like if pressure leads to content production but it’s a struggle for scum!snow to come up with realistic scumreads, why would that not manifest as coming up with more detailed but still very non-commital reads?

Also, the self-preserving thing is super null in a situation like this. If I’m town then I’m gonna vote for self-pres even if I think the three person is town because, hey, I might be wrong about them but I know what my role PM is. If I’m scum I’m gonna vote them cause I don’t wanna die. And do you really think snow has enough traction in this game to lead a wagon on anyone new here? Besides which, she doesn’t even have a scumresd to lead said wagon on

[Menalque]

Jesus christ, can we not

[Menalque]

And mohab does it again *Sigh* (And so does chemist)

Mohab is still in the game? It’s Holden who repped

[Menalque]

NSG is annoyingly good at denying me pagetops

[Menalque]

This is why everyone respects her reads so much: everyone knows that your clout on mafiascum.net is directly linked to your ability to consistently get some strong pagetops

[Menalque]

And mohab does it again *Sigh* (And so does chemist)

Mohab is still in the game? It’s Holden who repped

NSG is asking for a mohab replacement in the replacement thread (post 2412)

Oh, shame

[Menalque]

I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.

Menalque, when you say you’re not trying to force my elimination through... I disagree pretty strongly with that. Asking everyone in sight to vote me counts pretty strongly as forcing my elimination imo.

Who do you think is on your wagon just because they’re sheeping me? I’m only like the third vote on your wagon.

Me advocating for your guillo is not the same as me forcing it through. You may note that while I’ve asked a number of people to vote you, I’ve yelled at pretty much no-one, nor have I hyperposted the thread into oblivion to drown out any competing voices, nor have I exaggerated how likely i think it is that you’ll flip scum to encourage sheeping/compliance, nor have I threatened anyone with being guillotined on a future day if they don’t get on board with your flip, all of which are characteristic of me forcing a wagon through despite resistance.

[Menalque]

1. It’s pretty common for town!me to have a lack of scumreads, particularly on day one.

2. The IIOA thing is because it’s kind of hard to analyse a lack of AI content.

3. Your reads are probably different to mine because you’re approaching things from the perspective that I’m scum.

4. Not really sure where you’re seeing resistance to my wagon, especially early on: it picked up momentum pretty quickly after Holden’s post, I went from zero to E-1 in three pages. That’s not a wagon that’s being resisted by scum.

(1) I don’t find this meta defence very compelling. You seemed far more assertive when I glanced at your meta. Link me all your completed towngames again and I’ll look a second time?

(2) what do you mean?

(3) well yes, but that’s not all my reads and they’re not all dependent on that. Your reads feel very disjointed— raya makes sense as a partner to you or as independent scum, but I think she makes much less sense with a50/RCE who make sense as a team but only if scum is doing something entirely different to what I thought they were

(4) I will recheck this. I don’t remember you reaching G-1 that quickly, I thought you sat at G-2 for a long time while there was an attempted CW on RCE and then the current one on mohab!slot

[Menalque]

fmpov it's like... continuing to offer non-commital reads is a very overtly scummy thing to do? you're refusing to take a stance and if snowblaze were scum i'd imagine she'd try to scrounge up something of a solidified scumread on something. despite not being able to start a new wagon — which i think a snowblaze of either alignment recognizes would not pan out — i guess i just see it as a place where it would be of more benefit to vaguely scumread someone instead of saying "this person is towny, i lean towny on this person" over and over and push herself into a place where she votes only out of self preservation

Okay, this is a pretty good argument, I’ll think about it. I guess my thought of why it could still be scum is that scum would probably not be choosing to offer non-commitsl reads but that it’s more from not being sure how to come up with a convincing fake scumread (esp when coming up with a really bad fake scumread on someone would probably get her guillotined). So it’s not a choice in the way you’re framing it, it’s scum!indicative from what she can’t do well while being scum

[Menalque]

What about the push do you think is poor quality?

The fact that your main point seems to have been “mohab meta looks different here” and despite that being pretty weak on its own mohab has still become a strong counterwagon to snow

[Menalque]

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

[Menalque]

Whichever wagon was more recently larger.

huh? it's like the opposite of this no? which wagon reached the number of tied votes first

[Menalque]

I am very opposed to a ydrasse wagon and want an explanation for anyone voting her.

@S_S okay I get what you mean

[Menalque]

from*

also, Titus, what was your VCA that led you to (snow, fredrick, ydrasse)

[Menalque]

NSG, what happens if the remaining slots that need to be filled haven't filled by the time deadline comes round? could we get a freeze on the deadline or something until those slots are filled?

[Menalque]

I like the Titus vote tbh.

I must be getting dumber by the minute, but I can't tell if by "the Titus vote" you're referring to hers on Ydrasse or Fredrick's on her.

tbf, I'm with the monkey on this

[Menalque]

Actually I’m pretty okay with this

VOTE: titus

[Menalque]

VOTE: snow

[Menalque]

Hi maemuki, you should probably vote for snow here if you’re town because at the moment you’re tied on votes and if we don’t manage to get a hammer on you the person who hit the higher number of votes first will be guillotined

[Menalque]

Correct, but if someone else was to vote you and someone else was to vote maemuki then maemuki voting you first would ensure that you die unless actual majority is found for maemuki

[Menalque]

And yet you continue to vote there @S_S

[Menalque]

This game got super fucking boring can we flip someone now

[Menalque]

Titus might be scum

[Menalque]

Mae is at E-1 just so everyone knows
Snow is E-2

Raya in there with the VC misinformation again I see

[Menalque]

Is that hammer?

[Menalque]

Titus might be scum

Do you think this implies that Snow is scum, or that both wagons are on town?

Idk dude this fucking two wagon sitch has sapped all my motivation and I’ll think about this when I haven’t been up all night and when we have information off a flip

[Menalque]

Tbh assuming that muki flips town I might tunnel Titus tomorrow instead of you snow, given that I think her responding to me saying “Titus might be scum” with “the tone of this is yuck” on one of my posts is really making me think I might be right

[Menalque]

I'm super fucking tired and at this point just wanna see the flip and go from there

will be around properly tomorrow most likely

[Menalque]

Hmm

I didn’t think fredrick would be in there necessarily

None of the others are that surprising, maybe titus?

So

(S_S, RCE, montos, ydrasse, raya, A50, me)

[Menalque]

Fmpov there’s 2 scum out of 6 in the other names there

If I find one then we win even if I get mis-guillotined today which I think is moderately likely and which I won’t oppose too much if people can’t see me as town. I think in fairness it may be quite hard as the approach I’d have taken here as scum would probably have been more or less identical, just oriented towards “saving partner” instead of “just plain wrong”

[Menalque]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

[Menalque]

I think my initial hottake is that the counter had scum on it which would mean that going through (RCE, montosh, A50) consecutively would be winning, but I would like to double check the S_S and ydrasse switches onto the mae wagon before I commit to that. It could be that they thought mae was going down anyway and so it would be best to bus and ride that out to the win given the accelerated schedule of this game

[Menalque]

If I must die, so be it, I think there’s still good chances of winning this with 2 guillotines left over the next 2 days

[Menalque]

That was @eva specifically you both somehow ninja’d me

[Menalque]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

...because I’m aware of how awful I look based on D1 because I’m not an idiot?

[Menalque]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

...because I’m aware of how awful I look based on D1 because I’m not an idiot?

But wouldn't it make more sense to let someone find that for themselves instead of jumping in with a self defense?

What’s the advantage in doing that regardless of my alignment? If I’m town, then I know that the thing I would have done differently is I would have probably tried harder to save my scumbuddy (given the importance of not losing to a double guillo on D1 followed by D2) and counted on the WIFOM of “would mena really tried this hard to save their scumbuddy???” to try and save myself on D2, ad given that I know this is what’s different about how I’d approach this as scum I might as well share that. If I’m scum, then obviously I chose to play it that way but I’d have come up with an explanation overnight for why I acted that way that I might as well share.

In either case there’s also a strong motivation to not be guillo’d today in that if I’m town it means we can’t insta-win, whereas if I’m scum it’s an insta-loss.

[Menalque]

That was @eva specifically you both somehow ninja’d me

Don't get me wrong, I definitely don't want to quick-guillotine you, or anyone for that matter! Who's your top pick for scum right now?

~Eva

Oops

lul

Also, idk. I didn’t bother to read through overnight because I was feeling a bit bummed over being totally wrong on D1 and also because while I could predict a couple of the town reveals (you, snow, umlaut was very likely) I didn’t know who the others would be and it felt pointless to start doing analysis without all of the information, especially as the deadlines are like insanely long for this game meaning there’ll definitely be time for it during the day phase.

[Menalque]

My suspicion is that there is a scum in (RCE, montosh, A50) but I’d like to double check what the flow of the wagon was and to see if either of (ydrasse, S_S) look like scum bailing onto a sure thing rather than resisting it

There is a thought that I had that I think is likely quite accurate in my ISO given mohab!flip, lemme find it

[Menalque]

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

Yeah, this one

So with this knowledge, I now think this is exactly what was happening on D1 and I think I dismissed it too quickly

[Menalque]

But I’m not really convinced my push on snow was hard enough for me to have entirely sold townies on it (especially as it was wrong lol) so I think scum were probably supporting it with their votes but not their voices to let me take the heat for it today

So yeah, (RCE, montosh, A50) seems like it almost definitely has a scum the more I think about it, and fmpov it’s just figuring out where or if there’s both there. If there are two, I’d say it’s (RCE, A50) based on A50 coming in to defuse the RCE wagon

But if it’s just one... I still think maybe the monkey is more likely and was white knighting RCE?

[Menalque]

The stakes are much much higher for scum right now. You even said something about not being all that upset about being mis-eliminated I believe? It doesnt make sense to me to jump in with a self-defence. It's much more advantageous to give people a chance to come to that conclusion without your help because by being the one stating it about yourself causes it to lose credit. Then there's extra added wifom about you being the one saying it. It's also overdefensive in my opinion.

Yes, they are, and it’s why I’m not going to fight my mis-guillotine if it comes, although obviously I’m still going to try to avoid it by making it as clear as possible that I’m town who was just ass-backward on D1.

I think we just disagree here Raya tbh. I don’t think that because something is self-meta it’s inherently less valid if people know that it’s true, and I think it’s fairly obvious I’d be trying to avoid being the guillotine today as either alignment, I’d just fight it harder as scum.

[Menalque]

And by “fight it” I mean I’m not going to throw a fit on how I’m so obviously town even though I was wrong on snow and mohab and how if you can’t see that then you’re trash at the game and should probably give up and stop playing because GOD how could you be so BLIND as to not see me as town when it’s so obviously the case etc etc

Because I don’t think I am obviously town given the way that D1 worked out and I think that toxifying the gamestate like that would do more harm than good going into D3 post a mis-guillo on me

[Menalque]

My main concern is if you're scum (and I'm not convinced at all yet that you're not) then that "thought" could just be a set-up if a miselim were to occur and it's what you want us to think.

*shrug*

Yes, that’s obviously what scum!me would want you to think it just happens to also be town!me’s approach to the game

I’ve already said I won’t fight it if you the townbloc comes to the conclusion that I am scum (and there’s something to be said for just policying anyone who hard defends scum (especially when they should know better))

But in the meantime is it not better to treat me as acting in good faith and to try to utilise me as a scumhunter; something which I don’t always suck at, despite having sucked at yesterday

[Menalque]

Ok I'm willing to agree to disagree and try to work out who is scum then if you really are town

Yah this is basically what I was trying to say with my last post

[Menalque]

What do you think of RCE voting mohab fairly early on?

[Menalque]

gut is saying menalque is town but brain is saying we'd be stupid not to throw him overboard

mene do you have an example of a time as scum where you hard pushed for a town counterwagon moreso than you did here - i ask because you keep mentioning that you would've pushed snow a lot harder as scum

This is pretty fair, sorry I couldn’t see you as town yesterday

I’ll have a look at my scumgames. I’m not sure there is off a quick think though, although I think the tendency to go to extremes is present there

[Menalque]

Subject: Mini Normal 2119 [game over]

Hi chem

Also

VOTE: bob

Read my ISO from here in this game and the way that I try to get votes onto Bob + my positioning on my scumbuddy (chem) vs my take on the mohab v snow question and my push to get votes on snow here

[Menalque]

Subject: Guns & Roses III [Game over]

VOTE: GL

Read from here to see how I respond to GL pushing dogwatch and getting a 3 vote wagon on her fairly early D2

[Menalque]

I have a secret tell on Menalque which is that he would feel bad hardbussing a partner like Mohab. I guess it's possible he was just wrong, but yeah, this what I expect from scum!Menalque.

~Eva

That’s interesting, because mohab is exactly the sort of person I probably would hardbus. If you look at the games where I commit to bussing it’s nearly always (the person is going down anyway, I perceive them as weak but also uncommunicative)

I don’t think I’ve ever bussed outside of those two ideas

Very clearly illustrated if you look at plotinus’ Hungarian mafia 1 (in which I wanted to save suji but he wasn’t talking to me in PT so I bussed him) and in team mafia (where I didn’t have a lot of faith in my scumteam to perform against the PL and hardbussed both of them out of the gate)

[Menalque]

You’re right that if mohab was indicating to me in the scum PT that she wanted to play and was being enthusiastic that I’d try to save her though, yes

[Menalque]

I’m going to take a breather from posting and let the townbloc talk with itself a little. I’ll still be reading if you need answers on anything immediately of concern

The last thing to mention re: me — if you decide to flip me today I won’t fight it, likewise for tomorrow although I will be a little annoyed. However, if you (referring to the townbloc) decide that you’re confident enough in town!me to bring me through both today AND tomorrow then I will fight tooth and nail not to be the game-losing mis-guillo on D4

So basically, I’m saying I think one thing on your agenda should be deciding (not immediately, but over the course of the day) if you can confidently believe I’m town or if you think i will always be a big worry to you and throw off your ability to confidently read in the rest of the potential scum names. If you think I will always be a concern, I think you should seriously consider removing me from the equation today or tomorrow to avoid the GyLo issue

[Menalque]

VOTE: S_S

[Menalque]

If I’m scum, why do you think I would confirm snow?

[Menalque]

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that Menalque appears to be extremely concerned about being executed so...

So, two things.

(1) what about my repeated points that I’m not going to fight a mis-guillotine on me today makes you think I’m extremely concerned about being executed?

And (2) why would town!me just take a blade to the neck lying down when I know that the game ends today if we guillo scum?

[Menalque]

I’m leaning S_S but I think the ~*safer*~ bet on where scum is would be (RCE, montosh, A50)

[Menalque]

But I think S_S looks the scummiest on his play so far

[Menalque]

I think there’s a very strong case to be made that S_S would look by far the worst if he’d stayed on snow!wagon and was being evaluated in that light

Just look at his ISO. There is basically zero solving there. There’s a little bit of discussing mechanics but like no solving at all

[Menalque]

Spoiler:

Fredrick what are you even doing

Voting.

The man has a point.

VOTE: Something_Smart

@MOD

I also thought Fred was voting Raya (based on the VC) but when he said he didn't I went back and ISO'd him and it seems he did switch his vote.

The vote was after the votecount...

Producing AI content is such a drag.

(Yes I will, but it takes a while, especially when I replace in.)

It's not hammer. It's not even L-1.

A townie who is actually confused on this point ought to, if not read the setup (because who does that?), then PM the mod.

I've never ever heard of a townie PM'ing the mod to ask what the setup is.

I mean you're right that I wouldn't hear about it whenever it occurred.

Why didn't you just check the OP of the game in question?

Yeah, that makes sense. I don't think this setup was unclear, though. I would guess they just didn't care enough to look at the mechanics (regardless of alignment).

Sure. But do you really think they would have thought of THAT if they didn't even think to look at the setup?

I'm not against Mohab's slot dying; I am, however, against killing an empty slot.

Don't forget this game uses plurality.

Whichever wagon was more recently larger.

huh? it's like the opposite of this no? which wagon reached the number of tied votes first

They are the same if the wagons became tied because of a vote. If they became tied because of an unvote, then it goes to the wagon that the person who unvoted was on.

Why?

Honestly I don't know, it might just be a standard principle that I adhere to because I'm used to non-mountainous games where you need to get a claim first, but first of all replacement perspectives can be valuable, and second of all, lurkers are easy enough scum targets and it's a very easy scum tactic to try to force through an execution on a vacant slot before someone can replace in and turn it around. The only thing you really gain from that is you don't have to wait for a replacement to join and read up, but that's really just an out-of-game thing.

Also, Mohab is extremely LHF-y and while LHF can be scum that means we won't get a lot out of the flip (since scum probably won't go out of their way to save them) and if we wait for someone to replace in and do some real interactions and then we kill them and they flip scum, that's much better.

I don't believe in slips.

Townslips definitely exist, whether or not you believe in them.

What?

Sure but things can be faked.

Yes.

The accuracy of townslips is no greater than random.

Does not follow from the above.

The accuracy of townslips is most certainly greater than random. It's not PERFECT, but it is evidence.

@S_S: instinct, probably nothing meaningful.

No I mean, I don't even know what you're trying to say. I'm not contributing to the theory that you're scum? Why would I be doing that?

Ah, I see.

I respect Titus as a player, but I generally don't hold her theories in very high regard. She and I have an extremely different way of approaching the game.

This particular theory suggests one possible explanation for events but doesn't really give any evidence to overcome that explanation's low prior. And I individually townread both you and Frederick, so my priors are even lower.

I was waiting to see the VC, but we have like 2 hours left and nsg said she wouldn't extend so

VOTE: Mohab

Does it? I wasn't counting the wagons.

Good response.

And yet you continue to vote there @S_S

I still prefer her to Snowblaze.

So there is some stuff in his earlier ISO that approximates solving but it’s all very weak, I can go into it separately later when I’m not on my phone. But I think his later D1 especially is void of any desire to try and analyse slots and determine their alignment. There’s a handful of empty questions, and some discussion of the finer points of mechanics etc which is something that S_S is perfectly comfortable with as scum. I also think his lower impact here is somewhat more likely from scum him considering that he just had to play scum twice in JK9++ and in mask of monsters and I could see him being s bit burned out because of it

[Menalque]

Are you scum once again, S_S?

I am not.

Last thing is purely tonal, but I think he would have given a more flippant/jokey response here as town

[Menalque]

To make the confirmed's job easier, I ask all the unconfirmed town give us a reason to townread them and all the unconfirmed scum give us a reason to scumread them.

1 reason to townread me: I rolled town
1 reason to scumread me: Dont

Mm, yes, much compelling, very answer

[Menalque]

Can you tell me what I blew off?

I assume he means after your rep in where you blanked several questions about what the hell you were doing voting ydrasse while scumreading snow

[Menalque]

I've decided I would rather hunt within those on the Snow wagon since that seems much more likely to have scum

This is probably fine. I’m pretty sceptical that both scum would have been on mohab which means that even if I’m mis-guillo’d there’s a 66% chance of winning, and if I’m not there’s a 100% chance in 3 flips unless both scum got onto mohab

Also if I’m wrong about S_S then even if I am mis-guillo’d then it’s just a guaranteed win to work through the entire snow wagon

I think actually the priority today should maybe be trying to clear people on mohab!wagon (so S_S, ydrasse, raya) becaus if we get to a point where we’re reasonably confident that none of them are scum (or that /at most/ one is scum) then it is basically winning to just go through snow!wagon

[Menalque]

I mean I’ve said multiple times that I won’t fight it if it’s decided I need to die

But again, why would I as town not also be fighting my guillotining when it would be a win if we hit scum today?

[Menalque]

Ehh i sort of get that but I just don’t like being mis-guillotined

[Menalque]

But equally I’m trying to be more chilled out post-sitebreak so I’m not going to fight it

But I have a pretty strong aversion to it and can find some meta of me doing that if it’s helpful

[Menalque]

Okay, I’m about to go see my parents but I’ll have a look for one or two games where I strongly oppose my lynch as town

[Menalque]

In this game I push both scum on D1 but because I tried to divert from one scum to the other, everyone thought I was trying to save my partner (despite me being the one to call attention to how scummy they were in the first place lol)

I actually end up calling for my own guillotine here on condition that my top scumread (not the person who I correctly had as scum but someone who I thought was being really opportunistic) be guillo’d the next day. So it’s not quite like a remembered, but I talk quite a lot about how obvtown I am and how dumb it would be if town to guillo me and advocate very hard for my top scumread

viewtopic.php?p=11191465&user_select%5B ... #p11191465

[Menalque]

^read from like post 999 onwards

[Menalque]

I got hard pocketed this game by a scumhydra that got bussed D2

There was predictably a move to guillo me D3 (mostly scum supported I might add)

Read from post 2907 onwards for my D3 iso to see how kindly I take it

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=80240&user_select% ... &start=400

[Menalque]

What was the logic for RCE not being scum again based on his opening posts?

[Menalque]

I have no idea what A50’s alignment is

I think I have a preference towards RCE if we’re going on snow!wagon but I’d need to look at montosh again

[Menalque]

VOTE: RCE

[Menalque]

I have no idea what A50’s alignment is

To clarify: I think I’ve ended up scumreading A50 in pretty much every game we’ve ever played together including the recent JK9++ that he’s referencing where yes, I mislynched him despite two strong town players having him as a very strong TR.

Idk if this is scum!A50 taking advantage of my weak position to vote me/justifying it through “getting even” or if it’s town!A50 who does just think I’m fairly likely to be scum and wants to get even

[Menalque]

To me, it is non-alignment indicative because RCEnigma may have simply forgotten that they had daychat as scum

RCE would definitely not forget about daychat existing if he were scum. He could still have posted it in thread for towncred but he wouldn’t have posted in main thread because he forgot daychat existed

[Menalque]

I already liked Ydrasse, but her latest post makes me like her even more! Waiting on A50 to reply to some things.

Also I've been kind of busy and I think Eve is too, but we will get back to things shortly!

~Eva

What did you like about her last post, Eva? That was one of the ones I think I like less from her

[Menalque]

Hmm, proooobably not actually?

Like that would be the better way to do it I think (as in, if you get the easier one you’re less likely to think the second one is more of the same when it’s slightly better done)

But I doubt many scumteams would have that nuance

VOTE: S_S

[Menalque]

scum!me doesn't explicitly TR a p

Do you mean in this game/setup or ever?

[Menalque]

Like, are you or are you NOT fighting your elimination? (You obviously aren't), so the second paragraph reads as "I am not town" to me (except; why would SCUM!you not fight it either??)

I’m not fighting it; I’m opposing it

There’s a difference albeit a small one. I object to being guillotined today and would like to make it clear that I’m town if possible to maximise the odds of winning the game. I’m not persuaded really by the “he’d be an awful slot to have in lylo” argument.

However, I’m willing to acknowledge that yes, I look pretty terrible after yesterday, and so if the conftown decide that it’s better I die today/are unable to get to TRs on me then I won’t be doing everything in my power to resist it, I’ll just be trying to provide them with guidance on where I think they ought to look tomorrow

[Menalque]

not exactly but we just need to not lynch all the townies on that wagon

~Eve

Nah I mean if you think that both remaining scum are on the wagon it’s a guaranteed win to just guillo through us until hitting scum

We get 3 guillos and there’s only 4 people on wagon

If 2 scum then it’s literally already GG

[Menalque]

It’s massively gambity if all the scum are on because, as covered, it’s a mech win to just go through everyone on the snow wagon

But flip side, if scum confirmed 5 people on mae!wagon I’d say that more or less confirms all the scum on snow!wagon

This is I think more WIFOMy and might be the right play just because even if there was like raya confirmed and not fredrick then just going through all the slots on here would still be really good EV I think

[Menalque]

I still don’t like S_S’s slot that’s much

I think raya is just town at this point

Ydrasse is probably town? Not so much for today but I remember thinking there were really good reasons to TR her D1

[Menalque]

How is this game

still

this dead D2

[Menalque]

Menalque, is there anyone else you're willing to vote from the Snowblaze wagon? I'm not really feeling S_S today, and even if I were I don't think it would really be doable.

Sup

Yeah I would, I just wanted my vote on S_S as a marker for VCs or whatever that if I flip that’s where I thought scum was most likely to be on an individual read basis

[Menalque]

My thing with the other slots on snow:

A50 — i just can’t fuckin read the monkey. Can’t do it, have tried to do it, my magic “reading people” 8-ball keeps coming up with “scumfuck” regardless. So idk, I’ll vote there if that’s what town wants, but I really can’t give a decent or non-biased read here and so don’t think it’s that helpful for me to be engaging with or around him

Montosh — potentially scum, but I need to read him and Holden again. I did think Holden’s vote on snow was a good one even if it was wrong and I’m kinda wondering if scum would be that likely to be leading there? Didn’t like montosh’s catch up post at all. This is probably my preference atm on the snow!wagon but I won’t feel comfortable voting there until I’ve had a chance to go through holden’s ISO and to properly look at montosh’s posts so far

[Menalque]

A50 — i just can’t fuckin read the monkey. Can’t do it, have tried to do it, my magic “reading people” 8-ball keeps coming up with “scumfuck” regardless. So idk, I’ll vote there if that’s what town wants, but I really can’t give a decent or non-biased read here and so don’t think it’s that helpful for me to be engaging with or around him

Blame my VCA and that you're working with me to sort which of A50 and Ydrasse are scum.

Can you explain why the VCA says ydrasse or A50 in more depth? I would vote A50 of the two rn but I see you’ve moved over to ydrasse

[Menalque]

Also I just remembered one thing that pinged me about Menalque was that he found Mohab’s dumbtelling town-indicative yesterday which felt off. Otherwise, he’s charmed me today.

Will discuss with Eve if that’s of importance.

~Eva

I have a theory on this btw, if you’re interested in hearing it. If not the tldr is I think I was confbiased

[Menalque]

Really just waiting for titus’ VCA atm...

[Menalque]

Okay, so basically, I think my general working theory on dumbtells (more likely to be from town than scum) is correct. Especially people who are just oblivious about the setup are likely to be town, especially in complicated games. Yes, scum sometimes fake this, and I’ve been known to like a dumbtell when I’m scum too tbh, but mostly it is town indicative

So I think what happened here was that I got it into my head that the dumbtell was more town!indicative than I should have given how egregious it was. Which meant that I read the following (the opposition to the wagon I wanted) as indicative that I was right that mohab was town and that she was being counterwagoned against the scum I was pushing. And like as it proceeded, it was sort of like a vicious circle. So the slots pushing for mohab were scummy because they were pushing away from snow to try and get her. And why was snow scum? Because I was town and I was pushing her, and because scum were ocunterwagoning on mohab. Why were the scum counterwagoning mohab — to save snow!scum ofc!

Yes, I’m aware that it’s bad logic of a circular variety but that’s why I think I got so locked in. The more resistance I got to what I was pursuing, the more I thought I was right to pursue it, even despite not townreading mohab

Does that make sense? I feel like it’s not the best explained thing but idk if I can be bothered to edit for clarity rn, I might tomorrow if it is really confusing

[Menalque]

Yeah, I saw that titus and I’m assuming eevee did too, I was looking for you to go into more depth on it

Also about why you switched from A50 to ydrasse?

[Menalque]

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

?

[Menalque]

*sigh*

[Menalque]

S_S individual top pick for scum

RCE feels super scummy

Montosh is just ???

Raya prob town

Ydrasse I feel is town but I guess it depends how much weight you put in titus’ VCA

A50 I have no idea on whatsoever

[Menalque]

we can't really afford to leave him onboard

Incidentally, I do think this is generally a dumb reason for flipping someone. Like, flipping them because you think you need to flip them. I don’t horrendously oppose the idea of doing me because of how awful I look for hardpushing snow, but it’s disappointing that you actually did get to a correct TR on me and then wifom’d yourself out of it/felt like you needed to lynch me despite TRing me bc “what if”

[Menalque]

Can we just pick either way, I’m getting bored

[Menalque]

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

?

Oh, if you do go me -> A50 then my ego solve partner is definitely S_S > RCE for the hatchet on fredrick above

[Menalque]

@fredrick, in fairness, S_S is right that I’d totally make the two posts I did as scum too. Like I believed them because I’m town, but I’d have made them as scum because I could see that the thread move was swinging strongly enough away from you being scum there that opposing it would have made me look bad when you obviously didn’t look scummy at that point