Yet another RC 13-player pre-designed setup (released)

[RadiantCowbells]

I can give town a bit more power cuz recent wr not so pog

[Isis]

Hm. I think the ceiling and the average feel ok for town but the floor is a little bit scary because the setup spec is pretty difficult and it's not hard to whiff all the townPRs.
Well I guess the sequence of someone claiming investigative and getting protected is very reliably likely to happen. That doesn't give town an additional elim or investigate someone (except to the extent scummy bodyguards kinda clear themselves) but its probably enough. It's a 9-2 so the bar for what needs to help town out is pretty low.

All that is thinking out loud before saying I would pass it. I sure don't remember whether i'm primary

pedit: oh gg nvm lol maybe i'll read this new setup

[Isis]

i read the OP and now i'm unsure NRG reviews have primaries

the setup in 49 seems really strong if more power is added to it i would hope it's power that trips over the other power somehow

[RadiantCowbells]

as soon as you're done looking at this one

Bam new setup GG ez

[RadiantCowbells]

I like it as is

I'm mulling over More Power because town winrates not very good but i think that is a solid 55-56% setup for town

[RadiantCowbells]

Though uh the vigs being paired is probably extremely strong invisible power

[RadiantCowbells]

inb4 vig vigs other thing without saying anything

[RadiantCowbells]

I dunno

I should actually figure out the WR in my setups

[Isis]

the paired vigs increases the paranoia for the other hood tho

[Isis]

i think murdercat or someone wrote a winrate simulator a year ago? i dont remember

[RadiantCowbells]

I wrote one like 3 years ago.

It doesn't work anymore for most normal games now because of all the new roles

Did murdercats go off of EV or a towniest-least towny Simulator

[RadiantCowbells]

What I'm actually looking for is my empirical winrate of predesigned setups

[RadiantCowbells]

It also has a tuning function which was fairly accurate at the time but probably would make scumsided setups now

[Datisi]

49 feels like
pretty strong for town

with the one lol funny scenario of n3 vig being run up on day 1/2, claiming, and then getting blasted by the other vig

[RadiantCowbells]

I really don't trust EV style calculators that think adding VTs dramatically increases scum odds of winning. i don't think they properly simulate the power of nightkills and night actions broadly.

[Isis]

i now feel sad that we're reviewing the setup because Datisi can't be that vig

[Isis]

I really don't trust EV style calculators that think adding VTs dramatically increases scum odds of winning. i don't think they properly simulate the power of nightkills and night actions broadly.

my understanding is that most EV calculators have very small winrate changes for added VTs

but yeah there's a lot EV calculators can't capture.

[RadiantCowbells]

Ok let's run a cool thought experiment

Say you have a game that starts at 3 players, 2 town 1 scum.
According to base EV that's 33% town winrate.
Take another that starts 5p. 4 town 1 scum.
According to EV town now has 46% chance of winning.

But. Let's think of this another way, how mafia games are played.
Some people are more or less towny and the least towny people are limmed.

If you start at 3p then the scum wins if they are either the middle or the least scummy, so 33% town winrate again.
But now if you start at 5p, since scum nightkill is hitting someone who isn't getting limmed it's hitting at the top of the town list. So effectively town get to eliminate the two scummiest players and at equal likeliness to be in a position town has 40% chance of winning.

[RadiantCowbells]

You'll find that mountainous games in practice that were run off of old style EV were massively scum favored and people just said towns are bad at mountainous. That's not necessarily true it's just that EV doesn't do a good job of capturing how mafia plays. Ugh i don't have my examples ready

[RadiantCowbells]

The tldr is that assuming the interchangeability of players vastly underweights the actual power of the scum nightkill; every person being naked was presumably never getting limmed so the towniest players are chopped off the list and scum don't need to compete with an arbitrary set of players in late game, they need to compete with the least towny ones

[RadiantCowbells]

Interesting fact

13-2 mountainous which was run a few time has 43% EV but was won like half of that by town

My own system gives 42/210 which is very similar to the actual observed wr

[RadiantCowbells]

At least this is stuff i vaguely remember being true

It's been a long ass time since any of this was relevant.

[RadiantCowbells]

Like, to my life

[Isis]

I only ever want to play nightless vanilla but here I am in nrg

[Isis]

Town tends to need helps