Yet another RC 13-player pre-designed setup (released)
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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Hm. I think the ceiling and the average feel ok for town but the floor is a little bit scary because the setup spec is pretty difficult and it's not hard to whiff all the townPRs.
Well I guess the sequence of someone claiming investigative and getting protected is very reliably likely to happen. That doesn't give town an additional elim or investigate someone (except to the extent scummy bodyguards kinda clear themselves) but its probably enough. It's a 9-2 so the bar for what needs to help town out is pretty low.
All that is thinking out loud before saying I would pass it. I sure don't remember whether i'm primary
pedit: oh gg nvm lol maybe i'll read this new setup"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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i read the OP and now i'm unsure NRG reviews have primaries
the setup in 49 seems really strong if more power is added to it i would hope it's power that trips over the other power somehow"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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the paired vigs increases the paranoia for the other hood tho"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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i think murdercat or someone wrote a winrate simulator a year ago? i dont remember"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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Datisi he/him, it/itsDrawn from Memoryhe/him, it/its
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49 feels like
pretty strong for town
with the one lol funny scenario of n3 vig being run up on day 1/2, claiming, and then getting blasted by the other vigI will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”~M-
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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I really don't trust EV style calculators that think adding VTs dramatically increases scum odds of winning. i don't think they properly simulate the power of nightkills and night actions broadly.2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.-
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i now feel sad that we're reviewing the setup because Datisi can't be that vig"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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my understanding is that most EV calculators have very small winrate changes for added VTsIn post 64, RadiantCowbells wrote:I really don't trust EV style calculators that think adding VTs dramatically increases scum odds of winning. i don't think they properly simulate the power of nightkills and night actions broadly.
but yeah there's a lot EV calculators can't capture."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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Ok let's run a cool thought experiment
Say you have a game that starts at 3 players, 2 town 1 scum.
According to base EV that's 33% town winrate.
Take another that starts 5p. 4 town 1 scum.
According to EV town now has 46% chance of winning.
But. Let's think of this another way, how mafia games are played.
Some people are more or less towny and the least towny people are limmed.
If you start at 3p then the scum wins if they are either the middle or the least scummy, so 33% town winrate again.
But now if you start at 5p, since scum nightkill is hitting someone who isn't getting limmed it's hitting at the top of the town list. So effectively town get to eliminate the two scummiest players and at equal likeliness to be in a position town has 40% chance of winning.2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.-
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth CriminalHe/him
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You'll find that mountainous games in practice that were run off of old style EV were massively scum favored and people just said towns are bad at mountainous. That's not necessarily true it's just that EV doesn't do a good job of capturing how mafia plays. Ugh i don't have my examples ready2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.-
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The tldr is that assuming the interchangeability of players vastly underweights the actual power of the scum nightkill; every person being naked was presumably never getting limmed so the towniest players are chopped off the list and scum don't need to compete with an arbitrary set of players in late game, they need to compete with the least towny ones2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.-
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I only ever want to play nightless vanilla but here I am in nrg"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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Town tends to need helps"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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