Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[Datisi]

vote count 2.04

with 10 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2022-08-18 01:15:00).

yeet

Dannflor [3]:

Radical Rat, furtiveglance, Vulture

kutiplz [2]:

Vivax, Bell

not voting [5]:

GuiltyLion, Aristeia, fireisredsir, Roden, Loki Dokie

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

[Loki Dokie]

vote count 2.04

with 10 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2022-08-18 01:15:00).

yeet

Dannflor [3]:

Radical Rat, furtiveglance, Vulture

kutiplz [2]:

Vivax, Bell

not voting [5]:

GuiltyLion, Aristeia, fireisredsir, Roden, Loki Dokie

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

Why do I get the feeling from this that Dann will flip red and one scum is voting him for towncred? I just don’t believe RR and Vulture are both town here.

[furtiveglance]

i think Bell/Dann are S/S and this game is basically over

I agree zomg, with RR/Vivax for the third.

I realised there's a fourth mafia, probably Aristeia or Fire idk.

[furtiveglance]

Am I allowed to be 'confused', or is that *sus*?

[Loki Dokie]

Am I allowed to be 'confused', or is that *sus*?

I think she was referring to the points. We already have 1 point from the Kitty yeet and only need 2 more. So if she’s hypothetically right on both Dann and Bell and both get voted, than the game would in fact be over in that case.

We only need to correctly solve 3/5 scums to win this.

[Radical Rat]

vote count 2.04

with 10 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2022-08-18 01:15:00).

yeet

Dannflor [3]:

Radical Rat, furtiveglance, Vulture

kutiplz [2]:

Vivax, Bell

not voting [5]:

GuiltyLion, Aristeia, fireisredsir, Roden, Loki Dokie

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

Why do I get the feeling from this that Dann will flip red and one scum is voting him for towncred? I just don’t believe RR and Vulture are both town here.

Seeing as Vulture's entrance was doing explicitly that, I'm going to say you're right

[Vivax]

Sorry if I mentioned too many suspects, gotta leave a few extras for the scum if they want to use my legacy

[furtiveglance]

Am I allowed to be 'confused', or is that *sus*?

I think she was referring to the points. We already have 1 point from the Kitty yeet and only need 2 more. So if she’s hypothetically right on both Dann and Bell and both get voted, than the game would in fact be over in that case.

We only need to correctly solve 3/5 scums to win this.

I was actually talking about me, whether or not being confused is sus.

I'm just struggling to find a 3rd alive mafia. Let's say it's Bell/RR for instance, that implies Vivax is town. Then you have to find a mafia in Ari/Fire/GL/You/Vulture - I'd probably guess Fire, but that solve doesn't seem right. I'm considering Bell/RR/Vivax, with some bussing D1.

[furtiveglance]

Forgot about Roden ^^, haven't seen Roden in a bit.

[Vivax]

At its core, in this game I just need to find and roast an impostor

[furtiveglance]

At its core, in this game I just need to find and roast an impostor

The roasting is optional.

[Vivax]

At its core, in this game I just need to find and roast an impostor

The roasting is optional.

Not in this cold tbh

[Bell]

i think Bell/Dann are S/S and this game is basically over

I have bad news.

Bell's inactivity is a p bad look and points to him being probably just scum.

I think Dann decided to try to push Bell d1 to salvage the KT situation but when he couldn't get traction he basically gave up and bussed KT.

Dann probably figures if he flips here that gives Bell enough towncred tommorrow after he flips to somehow escape off distancing later down the line.

I'm busy.

fire being one of the most vocal dann supporters with logic thats surface level correct is also kind of strange to me

like the principles he's using are correct but they're correct in a way that would be correct even if Dann flips scum here;

which feels like thats his primary consideration rather than who is town/scum within the Dann/Kuti dichotomy


everything is about loss, strategy, and like how a scum team looks at resources rather than

who is actually scum

Rather than trying to win by voting out who is scum, its all about mitigating a possible loss that creates a narrative further down the line that feels somewhat like putting the cart before the horse.

Sure.

[Loki Dokie]

Has this setup ever been run before? Anyone know? Better yet, if the answer is “yes”, a link to that would be extremely helpful. Glad we still have over a day left to sort this out. I still have no idea what I’m going to do.

[fireisredsir]

ok rereading finally

dann:
- forgot that i kinda gut scumread his early posting. it felt forced, like he really wanted to establish himself in the game early on
- i think i started townreading when i felt like we had the same reaction to loki. pressuring on the people who didn't acknowledge me and GL also felt a little towny partly bc i thought there was probably a scum in that group. less sure on that now but still possible
- after that there was a while where i mostly just agreed with the directions he was looking. i thought the roden push was good. i still think the bell push was good
- one note of concern ig is it feels like if RR is scum he was chainsawing for them a lil bit
- voting kitty after vivax just got put at e-1 could come from scum wanting to make sure they're on the scum wagon before the town one gets pushed through, but he did also later encourage the kitty wagon to continue
- overall based on the flip we got and the reads i have, i feel like the pressure and action he took contributed to town wincon much more than scum. it's possible that scum decided he was their best shot at getting a point and they really desperately needed one, but idk, i still don't quite buy it

kuti:
- very little content early, but a lot of posting. this was what made me scumread them originally. it felt like they didn't really feel comfortable with coming up with opinions, and looking at their past town games i don't get that feeling at all
- when they do catch up and post a readslist, its at a kind of pivotal point in the game where the wagons are tied 3-3. they find a weak townlean on kitty and their strongest scumread is the counterwagon
- thats it. they don't really post again after that

[fireisredsir]

i think im just kinda not really interested in the possibility of letting scum get away with doing scummy things under the basis of "scum wouldn't put someone so obviously scummy up for elimination" bc i think it's equally (or maybe even more) believable that they would do that in the hopes that people wifom their way out of it

VOTE: kuti

maybe ill sheep someone and change votes depending on how the wagons look tomorrow, idk

[GuiltyLion]

alright I am here and gonna do some rereading and then throw down a vote, my gut/heart are still pretty aligned on Dann but I'm gonna do some due diligence and also respond to stuff I haven't had time to look at deeply from D2. I just read fire's 1214 and it actually all pretty much aligns with my memory and take on things re: each of their ISOs, I just feel like I draw the opposite conclusion where I don't see what scum gains by throwing up one of their weakest members banking on WIFOM to save them when a 2-0 deficit is like,

really

bad.

I think if kuti is scum and they wanted to try to score a point off them there's a bunch of better options to go up against than Dann, unless exactly ALL of those better options (thinking like... Roden, Rat, Bell, Vulture, Vivax) are scum. but we know even at least 2 of that pool has to be town so yeah, I feel like "silencing/removing town!Dann" is just not enough of a benefit when contrasted with a much more even chance at a point. I'd maybe feel differently if the wagon comps were a bit different, but with Bell/Roden pushing kuti (and Rat too until they decided to switch), just also feels like it's mostly town casing/pushing Dann

anyway that's my preliminary take but I'll be here and reading for the next 30-40 minutes or so at least so holler if you're here

[fireisredsir]

i mean if most of town is voting dann here then idk how you can argue that it wasn't a good option for giving them a chance of getting a point

[fireisredsir]

like i think its extremely predictable that at least 3/7 town would end up following that train of logic

[fireisredsir]

i cannot imagine a world where scum genuinely think that town is just going to without any question yeet the surface level scummier person

its a wifom pick exactly bc wifom is hard to predict and it's almost a coinflip. and if every town member individually just flips a coin for who to vote, then mafia get the point most of the time

i just don't think it's at all likely that they were making their choice based on the criteria that you seem to be using for what makes something an "even chance" or a "better option"

[fireisredsir]

i actually think that throwing away scum dann on a wifom pick is less likely for exactly that reason

a mafia team picking dann would be well aware that people will see the discrepancy between how townread each of the two candidates were and that will make them hesitate

if you're going to gamble on a coinflip then you might as well be gambling to win big

ig thats what i was really trying to get at with my thing earlier about mitigating losses. i just don't think it makes sense for scum to put up scum dann here on something that is mostly going to come down to which side of the wifom people land on. there's no reason to. they can keep dann in the game to be a reasonable town leader and just construct a different coinflip if thats the route they really want to take

[GuiltyLion]

like i think its extremely predictable that at least 3/7 town would end up following that train of logic

I mean is it though?

let's say we're a mafia team with kuti, and we want a point (I know this assumption is not necessarily shared by you or everyone, but let's say for the sake of argument that mafia is trying to win a point here), you're telling me you believe scum are thinking, "hey, we'll have the

best possible chances of winning

against town!Dann" rather than literally anyone else?

I recognize every test is going to be WIFOM to some degree but if it's kuti vs Roden or kuti vs Vivax, that just feels far more likely that people will talk themselves into the other option rather than town deciding someone who wasn't really super heavily scrutinized or scumread much on D1 is actually more scummy than a slot that barely played D1

[GuiltyLion]

ig thats what i was really trying to get at with my thing earlier about mitigating losses. i just don't think it makes sense for scum to put up scum dann here on something that is mostly going to come down to which side of the wifom people land on. there's no reason to. they can keep dann in the game to be a reasonable town leader and just construct a different coinflip if thats the route they really want to take

I think this makes a bit more sense, but I guess I am assuming Dann is the strongest member of the team and who they saw as best chances of getting a point. I think if it's like Dann/Rat/Roden/Bell, there's not a lot of great coin flips that team is feeling good about

and yes I shouldn't assume I know the exact 4 person scum team, but just using that hypothetical team as a motivating example. I think maybe we're looking at this differently because I think if I were scum I'd be trying my hardest not to go down 2-0 because to me 2-0 feels like a death sentence

[fireisredsir]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

like we have in front of us some pretty convincing experimental evidence showing that there is in fact a very good chance of winning the point there

[GuiltyLion]

I guess I also just think, if Dann is scum, his ISO can only get worse, not better. I don't think scum!Dann in Turing Test 4 is more likely to win a point than Dann in Turing Test One. And the more he would use "town leader" influence to earn points via different tests, the more this effect holds