[SETUP] COUNTERCLAIM

[Skygazer]

Setup:
8 vanilla townies
5 mafia goons

- Deathless game, nightless after night one.
- Day talk.
- After the first elimination on day one, the eliminated player will flip but will not die.
- On night one, every unflipped member of the mafia will pick one town player to pair up with and the order in which the pairings shall be voted on.
- On day two the pairings will be revealed, and the town will vote to flip (but not kill) one player in each pair, going through the pairs in the order submitted by the mafia. The player that isn't flipped becomes unflippable.
- Mafia wins if there are three or more unflipped goons after each pair is voted on; town wins if three goons flip.

player name

Welcome to COUNTERCLAIM. You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

Abilities

Vanilla

: You have no special abilities.

Win Condition

You win when the mafia faction has lost. Please confirm by replying with a summary of your role.

player name

Welcome to COUNTERCLAIM. You are a

Mafia Goon

.

Abilities

Factional Communication

: You may talk to other players in your faction at any time using this private topic.

COUNTERCLAIM

: This game has a unique factional ability.

- Your faction does not have a night kill.
- On night one, every unflipped member of your faction will pick one town player to pair up with. None of you may pair up with the same player.
- On day two the pairings/order will be revealed, and the town will vote to flip (but not kill) one player in each pair each day, going through the pairs in the order you submitted. The player that isn't flipped becomes unflippable.

Win Condition

You win if three members of your faction remain unflipped after all of the pairs have been voted on, or if nothing can prevent this from happening. You lose if three members of your faction flip during the course of the game.

[Skygazer]

I'll post EVs at some point. The numbers can probably be adjusted.

[Datisi]

oh hey, this seems kind of familiar...

there's some interesting dynamics with all the pairs being known in advance, and most town members having a known scum to them from the start of d2. i'd be interested to see how this version would pan out, potentially even play in it.

[Skygazer]

oh lmfao

[Flower]

Day 2 onwards is just 50/50's so the EV's pretty simple to calculate with a binomial distribution

In the d1 town lim case scum winrate is just the probability of having 0/1/2 scum limmed over 5 trials, in the d1 scum lim case scum winrate is the probability of having 0/1 scum limmed over 4 trials so

Spoiler: d1 town lim

P(0 scum limmed after d1) = 5 choose 0 * 0.5⁰ * 0.5⁵ = 1 * 1 * 0.5⁵ = 0.5⁵
P(1 scum limmed after d1) = 5 choose 1 * 0.5¹ * 0.5⁴ = 5 * 0.5 * 0.5⁴ = 2.5 * 0.5⁴
P(2 scum limmed after d1) = 5 choose 2 * 0.5² * 0.5³ = 10 * 0.25 * 0.5³ = 2.5 * 0.5³

P(scum win after d1 town lim) = 0.5⁵ + (2.5 * 0.5⁴) + (2.5 * 0.5³) = 0.5 = 1/2

Spoiler: d1 scum lim

P(0 scum limmed after d1) = 4 choose 0 * 0.5⁰ * 0.5⁴ = 1 * 1 * 0.5⁴ = 0.5⁴
P(1 scum limmed after d1) = 4 choose 1 * 0.5¹ * 0.5³ = 4 * 0.5 * 0.5³ = 2 * 0.5³

P(scum win after d1 scum lim) = 0.5⁴ + (2 * 0.5³) = 0.3125 = 5/16

Scum winrate = (8/13 * 1/2) + (5/13 * 5/16) = 89/208 ~= 0.428
Town winrate = 119/208 ~= 0.572

[Skygazer]

ye it's fairly townsided but probably made up for in scum's thread control? increasing the number of townies has it gradually approach 50/50 but less players is probably more feasible. (I'm kind of paraphrasing Jingle btw)

i think datisi's works better as a concept tho lol